weatherwiz

The end of next week looks like just one of those FROPA's with a developing wave of low pressure. Two things about these setups: 1. The snow maps go absolutely bonkers with these and always spit out some "historic totals". 2. These setups almost never work for us (except farther north). With that said, like was mentioned yesterday by Will and a few others, gotta watch that PV lobe...if we can get some PV/confluence to suppress the boundary then it may work out. An overlooked aspect of these setups too can be the influences of convection across the South which can rob moisture but at least right now, this may not be something to worry about...don't see much of a signal for strong convection.

Hell, even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation

Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back?

It certainly is great seeing -WPO signals...haven't had that early in winter in a bit.

I mean I try not to get my head into that "what if" game...I mean you could apply the what if to anything in life. But this system...this evolution, its quite anomalous for this time of year. It certainly is early so it would be foolish to expect a significant winter storm (though its happened before) but sometimes you look back at these at the end of the season and be like, "damn if only that produced". Like sports...at the end of the season, you go back and look at that loss you had early on where you had the game and let it get away...well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. We need to get out of this rut...we need something to finally just go our way.

Crazy

It's more about just the evolution of the system and processes involved. If you just look at that and don't factor in the time of year it's an opportunity missed. I think being able to cash in on opportunities is extremely underrated when you go back to assess the season as a whole.

Agreed on this. We need to be able to cash in on opportunities and this was one opportunity missed.

Maybe CT will break off and float away into the Atlantic

There was another earthquake in CT

Hopefully next week pans out into something, whether it’s rain, snow, or a mix. It would even be better if this storm, plus next week are indicators of more active times but after next week we very well could go back into a quieter regime.

With how intense the systems they can get in the Fall they can get some decent instability along the coast. IIRC the west coast states (CA, WA, OR) their peak is usually fall.

I don’t think it’s too totally uncommon

Agreed on all that.

Maybe we can combine all those periods the "EPS looked good" from last year, the winter before, and the winter before that with the upcoming "EPS looks good" period to produce one of the most prolific stretches ever.

Saturday's seem to be best. I know the weeknights at Clark's have been great for those close to Boston during the week but for anyone outside of Boston that is pretty brutal. I think a Saturday like 12-1 PM for the early folks is perfect, even if someone stops by for 2-3 hours they're getting home at a reasonable time and still have time to do whatever else they may need to do for the day.

I do agree with that general idea but I think lately I've backed off on how strong I agree with that idea. The last I want to say 3-4 years (maybe even a little longer?) have either had anomalously wet periods or anomalously dry periods. And the anomalously wet periods during this stretch have become more wet and the anomalously dry periods have become even more dry. That is just an observation though - not trying to connect that to anything. But may this is something we're going to have to do with for a while...when we're getting favorable upward vertical motion over the CONUS we'll have precip event galore and maximize PWATs and when we have unfavorable vertical motion we won't be able to buy anything

I think Funky Murphy's is so much better. 1. Its a more centralized location which can help with turnout. 2. The parking kind of blows but its much easier than trying tp park in Boston (and hell a cheaper...as in free). 3. We get that giant space in the back.

This I am not so sure about. If we get a -PDO/-AMO combo that may be the case. IIRC, doesn't -PDO phases tend to coincide with dryer than average conditions across the CONUS?

Within our region, I don't think anyone sees any snow outside of the Greens and maybe parts of the Berkshires. This is where the most intense lifting would likely be. But I wouldn't be surprised if some flakes/graupel on Friday...in fact I bet many see at least some sort of frozen precip mixture.

Maybe not bad after all for the Greens Thursday night into Friday morning

Wow didn't realize how similar the NAM/Euro are in terms of how the entire system evolves...does the old NAM/Euro rule still exist Alot will probably depend on how quickly and where occlusion occurs. GFS is much quicker in this regard.

NAM solution is probably best solution to give a widespread soaking rain for several hours. That's some pretty intense frontogenesis and WAA and convective precip...that's what we want. GFS makes me a little nervous about heavy rain on a widespread or larger scale.

WSW out for the higher terrain in eastern West Virginia

Gotcha. This is precisely why timing is just as, if not, more important when dealing with the "sensible" weather and when it comes to the states of PNA, EPO, NAO, AO, etc. its their trend over a 5-7D period which is more important than just want the index looks to become or average out to. I wish there was an easy way to do this and apply to historical events and for research purposes. I still would one love love to be able to take the daily index levels of the various indices and compute a weekly/bi-weekly rolling average. But I think this is extremely complex. I don't think its as simple as just taking the daily values and simply dividing by 7 or 14. A program could do this extremely easily, just have to come up with the proper equation.