weatherwiz

Cape will get rocked. James will have a new book title, "Awoken Before Dawn"

Where was the 60 gust in NJ? Wasn’t it along the coast? Looks like some 60+ knot pixels passed through the circled area

Which is within the window when our winds switch to more NW and we start getting winds from the backside.

Wow that's pretty impressive. They're going to rip like crazy for a brief time should this verify...thankfully it should be brief otherwise power issues would be pretty significant. Heck...even brief duration of these winds would do a number We'll gust 35-45 mph easily with the backside winds but I don't think we see those associated with the rain or convection

It has been very consistent with this has some other models. This is the best chance for really good winds and across these areas.

I'm still not buying the huge winds (until we kiss the backside later overnight) outside of any convective elements. The rain is going to further stabilize the column (especially llvls) and like forky has mentioned a few times, the llvl lapse rates are garbage...including 2-6 km lapse rates. Outside of perhaps the extreme outer Cape, the LLJ likely isn't going to strengthen that much more than it is now...which is there is little momentum transfer doesn't matter much if it did anyways. The real winds will come from the pressure gradient which we get to experience as this undergoes bombogenesis as its lifting through New England (the backside winds!)

5 AM - 11 AM

My sniffer is still sniffing. Still looking good for next week

I'm too afraid to post those

Jesus..the 12z euro has 70-80 knot gusts scrape coastal RI, SE MA, and the Islands. I guess that just offers up what kinda gust potential we're dealing with should any convection organize or pass over anyone.

It's don't count your chickens before they sh**

hmmm...the convection would actually develop on the backside of the precipitation shield...at least that's what the HRRR suggests. I recall a couple of events in the past where something similar happened. One was a winter event...maybe like 2009 and it was a crazy light show. I remember a while back...a long time ago Scott made some in-depth posts discussing all the processes involved behind that...big contributor was edge of dry slot.

Yeah timed for rush hour too. I was hoping I'd be able to beat it home...going to be close at the speed it's going. I still feel like this is all timed a few hours quicker...which typically isn't a big deal but what I think that could mean is a later bombing out. I think the only thing in question right now is whether the Cape gets the goods with those winds and whether some of those get inland (not talking about backside winds).

Looks like it is in the process of taking on a negative tilt now and jet streak starting to round the base of the trough. These next 2-3 hours will tell us all we've been wondering.

Not many E-ESE wind events in October I guess.

I can't either. I don't think backside winds will be overly crazy...but it will be region wide. I'm thinking 35-45 mph gusts on the backside...maybe 50 in the exposed areas. There was this one event we had...think it was March...no clue on the year but it was between 2010-2012 and we had a crazy overperforming wind event on a NW flow...that was a completely different set-up than this was...we ended up with like full sun that day and mixed way deeper than forecast. There was a decent amount of damage reports/power outages...and trees were still naked.

That page is working again? sweet

I'm not so sure I agree with their notion of "window of opportunity for surface-based convection". There is a bit of a spike in some sfc-based instability on the CAMS, however, this really happens behind the area of precipitation and is tied into the steepening of the mlvl lapse rates as the main energy moves overhead...along with the dry punch.

GFS also develops a TC which makes landfall across FL Panhandle Friday night, comes off mid-Atlantic coast and strengthens and then gets pushed out to sea

15z HRRR rips a left moving supercell up the CT River Valley.

WOAH!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOAH!@!!!!!!!!

Bow echo?

We’re closing in in the window where things should begin the process of taking off and evolving. Let’s see