weatherwiz

Looking forward to waking up in the morning and reading a, " 7.5'' in my hood, overperformer for sure" post

Those are some intense squalls too tomorrow on the 3km...quite unstable too, could see some thunder/lightning in those

should have stopped by and said hi. I think I have an IPA in the fridge

Kind of what I've been thinking the last few days. I've always sucked with the topographic aspect when making maps so I decided to use my brain and have a topographic map pulled up to try and more accurately place the higher totals where greatest elevation is and where that cutoff should be. Probably too low in northern Berkshire County where they may get upslope influences. I also do think there could be some 5-7'' totals in the highest elevations northwest of Worcester. That area should have the best combination of a cold enough profile from the sfc up, get into the higher QPF totals with all QPF being snow, and some of the strongest lift into the DGZ and have the best ratios. Berkshires into the northwest hills of Connecticut...usually pretty easy for them, always all snow and as long as the lift is great they'll have great ratios too. Starting to think Boston will end up a bit too much on the warm side for anything outside of some mixing and certainly nothing that is going to stick to anything with the exception of cars sitting in parking lots that haven't been warmed up yet. Could go crazy trying to decipher where that boundary between something around a coating will occur to as much as 2-3''. May bring that 1-3'' a smudge south.

Sick I'll have to check them out. I wish on COD they had more layers available for the HRRR but they only have sfc and 700. Wish they could also include point-and-click soundings like TT does.

Yeah it really is, you're also toying with how quickly the precip shield blossoms because even if it remains on the colder side, the precip shield may blossom just a bit too late to produce enough QPF to bring 1-2'' along that corridor. There might be too many negating or fighting forces...probably be best and forecast/hope for something upwards of an inch.

Probably far southeastern areas get close but seems like 925 will remain cold enough for most. There has been some wavering on this, but it seems the overall trend through the week has been towards a colder 925.

Have to see how temperatures respond over the next hour or two. Have high clouds starting to filter into western sections now. Just looking at SPC mesoanalysis but looks like mainly like 33-35 within that area. But pretty big differences in the NAM/GFS...looks like the NAM has a little push of warmer air in the BL later this evening and overnight...noting some big differences between the 925 llvl jet on nam versus gfs too.

Looking at BDL on the NAM bufkit...NAM isn't bad for BDL. I was actually a bit surprised the ratio was as high as it is but the lift into the DGZ isn't too bad. This could be a case where BDL ends up with 2-3'' (which may be on the high side but I think its doable) while HFD ends up with like a coating.

Time to go freeze

Deleted other post...bad post. Anyways 0z HRRR looks quite iffy along 84 and even to BDL

If the Bruins score more than 2 goals tonight I may go make naked snow angels

What a sight

Let’s go baby

Overall modeling is substantially better but I think forecasting and forecasting skill is going downhill. At the end of the day, forecasting goes way beyond just quickly assessing various products such as QPF, snow maps, supercell composite parameters, etc. Forecasting is an art which requires a great deal of time. Unfortunately, in today's world nobody wants to spend time anymore...nobody has time. At the TriState Weather Conference there were a few presenters from NWS and TV one big hurdle for them is they are required to do so much social media presence...too make a long story short, people who work in forecasting are spending most of their time doing anything but forecasting. We're all on here quickly looking at H5 maps, snow maps, QPF maps between model-to-model and generating quick thoughts...but at the end of the day, for the most accurate forecast, multiple hours should be spent doing a diagnostic of the current state, taking current conditions and comparing to the models, then applying an understanding of each strength/weakness of a particular model, understanding the current pattern and using knowledge to gauge which model may be best at handling the current state and its evolution. But overall, I truly believe forecasting skill is going downhill because there is just so much running to and rip and reading specific products and not enough applications of meteorology to the process.

I love when there is weather going on because you can get some big time differences (at least with temperatures) from MOS/NBM, the 2m products, and bufkit. I should add with my comment, despite those differences, the end game isn't much different. Even on the "colder" guidance BOS is going to be too warm for snow but its just a difference of whether they can end as a mix or a brief period of all snow. I was looking at MOS/NBM for stations within the region...GARBAGE. Sometimes I think the NBM is a big time fraud.

Yeah these are certainly nail bitters. At least at this stage we have expectations for what will occur if the precip shield blossoms on the earlier side and what occurs if it happens to be on the later side. I think in terms of "gradient" from accumulation versus none is pretty set. along 84 is going to be iffy with little-to-any south and east of it. Not much else we can do at this stage with the blossoming aspect...nowcast for that like you said.

I think its more of a timing issue than anything else. The system is going to be juiced, its just a matter of how quickly does the precip shield blossom.

With at least a quick glance, I'm a little shocked the Euro doesn't have more QPF during that window. Looks like it is just a tad later with blossoming things?

Pretty interesting...NAM warms BOS through the overnight and GFS keeps them cold. Pretty big difference in the profile on bufkit nam versus gfs

It's the extended HRRR so caution applies, however, this is an intriguing scenario. Develops a squall line which races east and then interacts with the precip shield moving across the eastern part of the region which then allows for snow to blossom region-wide around the AM commute.

Like other methods, it accounts for temperature, moisture (relative humidity), but I believe the differentiator is it also factors in upward vertical velocity.

Not sure what vendors have for products but cobb method is probably the best to determine snow ratios.

ahhh... perhaps, would have to get lucky to be impacted by a snow shower since they'll be scattered but certainly could whiten the ground if lucky to get hit

Away from the coast and under the heaviet precip/lift...snow ratios probably a good 12:1-15:1. Using Cobb method and ORH bufkit from NAM ratio is generally like 13:1 it seems...even as high as 16 or 17:1 under best lift