weatherwiz

Getting a few good CG’s now 

On that cell headed to Ridgefield. Looks like the weak rotation may pass just south though 

The past few...even several runs of the SPC SREF have continued to highlight western MA and western CT...even bumped up the probs. I still wish I understood what the values actually indicated...is it a percent or like an "on a scale type thing"?

sorry that came out weird and couldn't edit but that's the 11z RAP for Waterbury, CT for 2:00 PM today. Great combination of shear and CAPE

11z RAP for WTBY 

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Realize you're probably quite busy, but why don't lapse rates matter as much for tornadoes later in the summer? 

Part of the reason is typically later in the summer we have a higher likelihood for stronger llvl moisture which; 1) leads to lower LCL’s 2) enhances llvl instability and 3) combine this with strong shear in the 0-3km layer and you have potential for weak tornadoes. Basically we’re relying more on what’s going on in the llvls than the mid/upper llvls...especially when we aren’t really looking for storm tops exceeding 20,000-25,000’. I also believe with warmer SST’s this reduces the effects of marine air, especially in situations where dews are exceptionally high.

Also, steep mid-level lapse rates are typically more important when looking for significant severe widespread severe weather...this includes strong tornado potential. 

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sooooo.... 21z SREF, latest HRRR, 00z NAM definitely have me concerned about a midday tornado threat. 

You’re not kidding...holy crap. Tremendous directional shear in the 0-3km layer with sufficient CAPE. Anything that gets going has plenty to work with 

The biggest concern is going to be some weak height rises through much of the day and whether we can get a good forcing mechanism. Looks like the majority of the s/w forcing remains well to our west. We will be uncapped which will certainly help but our only source for buoyancy is just from unstable llvl air but nothing to really give an extra boost of support. 

EDIT: Nevermind...I was hovering over the wrong period  looks like we will have subtle s/w moving through tomorrow but concern of height rises remain 

Looks like mlvl lapse rates steepen a bit too which helps keep it quite unstable and even bump CAPE up a bit in the evening and early overnight 

If enough 0-1km or 0-3km CAPE can develop tomorrow it does look interesting around 0z. llvl shear is fairly nice looking...not too weak and not too strong and some good directional shear going on as well in the 0-3km layer. 

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That was the one. I actually got tropical storm force wind out on the island for a few hours with that one. The roar in the trees was pretty impressive for a depleted she'll of a storm. Made me glad to be in a house that survived every cane from '38 to the present. 

That did eventually make a move up the coast right...but like several days later? It actually ended up making like a decent jog west too at the last second lol. It sort of rode up along the boundary as it stalled off the coast...?

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I remember. Was that Joaquin? We've had a number of tropical systems in the last few years that were forecast to strike the EC only to get kicked OTS. Even in the dull years. 

yeah that night have been the one...or was it the one that began with an H? Hermine or something

43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's why I love tracking tropical. Aside from the still evolving field of intensity prediction, watching and analyzing how upper level patterns and other features influence steering is absolutely fascinating. I think it's the only wx category that I will generally care about even if there's no real chance of production IMBY. 

Much more likely to get action chasing tropical than waiting for it to make a visit around here. That said, I'm probably more likely to get a hit here than in DC  

Totally agree here. If you're able to have an understanding of how this sort of stuff influences tropical (development, intensity, track, etc) you have a very strong likelihood of "beating" forecast models. Do you remember a couple years back there was this tropical system off the coast of FL and even 3 days out most models and the spaghetti plot tracks all showed a hit into New England? I kept telling people at school I didn't think that had any chance of verifying just because the atmospheric pattern did not support a track into New England or up the coast. The system ended up doing a fuwijara (or whatever it's called) off the coast of FL lmao. 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going to take a lot for me to get pumped about a tropical system as far as potential impact in our area goes...people jump waaaay to prematurely and look for reasons for it to happen.

The prudent course of action is to seek out ways for it to not happen.....in this region, its going to have to be pretty late in the game under exotically unique circimstances to not find one.

EXACTLY!!!!! This needs to be printed on a tee-shirt. The same can be said as well for just about any weather event. 

There are so many factors to consider when talking about a potential impact from a tropical system around our parts...that's why our average is like every 10 years for a hit or a landfall (believe that's hurricane...not sure if that includes tropical storm). 

Anyways there is more to it than just ridging or high pressure in the western Atlantic...the atmospheric pattern configuration across the United States is critical as well...especially with the timing and amplitude of any trough which may be pushing into or digging into the east. Then you have to worry about frontal boundaries moving through. 

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Going to be really hard to do that.

right  but with my luck that's what will happen 

NAM bufkit for BDL reamins quite unstable (actually increases instability) overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning with some interesting shear. 

I think though the poor lapse rates and high PWAT air are really going to hurt things. As we saw last week, these setups can certainly produce something but it tends to be extremely localized and last week also had the extra help from triple point and mesolow. But with such poor lapse rates and the majority of the buoyancy within the low-levels we'll certainly get some activity going but it's going to struggle to develop into anything meaningful to utilize the shear. Also...with such warm mid-levels it will be tough to generate ice crystals for lightning. 

Next year may be my break to go out west. Unfortunately it may only be able to be for like 5 days but if my job becomes full time come December and I get one week vacation my first year then I’m golden!! But watch next year be worse than this out in the Plains 

They crapped out before they could get to me. I haven’t gotten to enjoy a storm since May 15th

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

My aunt lives in Walpole nh going to message her to see if she got anything... She lives on county Rd.. 

So does my friend lol. 

Friend in Walpole, NH had hail and saw tree damage. Can’t get home until trees are cleared 

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Congrats!  Sounds like a fascinating scientific journey.   

As we have all noticed this over the years ... we probably have our own hypothesis.  These range from rational to irrational (ha!) ... but, I believe that the tendency to turn the llv advection term into a more S direction east of the elevations, particularly ...and this is important, as the mid level wind max is nosing over the eastern cordillera, that causes said S component to strengthen. 

In the high plains that is a good thing for increasing the 0-3km ...0-6km total helicity ...however, while increasing shear is important, crucially for our geographic circumstances...that direction mitigates SB CAPE by the great instability killer.

...The ocean...

The whole of that synoptic evolution has a toxicity to it.  I have noted over the years, ...from gazing at countless high resolution visible satellite loops between noon and sunset ...that depending on the wind direction, the CU field can be scoured out even when accompanying surface observation do not really reflect cool environment.   In other words, it may be 84/67 with TCU around Albany ... while Bedford over eastern Massachusetts will have shallow or no CU, at "nearly" the same temperature and dewpoint combination.  It seems from just these observation points ...any translation of air mass from New Jersey across the New York Bite region...over Long Island, and then over the Sound ... steals/mitigates critical instability.  

Some times this is more obvious ... other times, it is not - like in that paradigm above.  To those anxiously in wait of broken lines of severe ...crossing E from the Capital district down to White Plains (~) ... there is a "poof" axis that exists roughly ... NYC to SE VT to and points E.  In that region, it rarefies strong convective events, albeit ... not removing the potential for them altogether. 

Anyway, the idea is ... as the acceleration of the jet structures begin to pass over, they intensify the restoring low level southerly flow, and that draws more contamination from the marine boundary layer mixing with continental air off the Mid Atlantic.. and in marginally unstable scenarios, that may account for a lot of those failures ..by edging instability below situational thresholds. 

I'm really excited to explore this idea and the goal is to publish a paper. My hope is with the findings will really show how much of an influence the jet may have (and when talking about the jet I'm referring to jet streaks/maxes and jet quadrants) and how perhaps it can really be a bigger driver than just the combination of cape and the presence of wind shear alone. 

But those are very interesting observations you have for sure. I think when you begin to notice things like that over time it shows there really is an influence and how these details can really provide a clue as to what to really expect. 

Sweet...got my senior research topic proposal approved! Going to be exploring the significance of the upper-level jet and northeast convective events. I know that sounds like a broad topic (as my adviser stated), however, I have it all laid out and this is something I've wanted to explore for years. I've had this idea generated from the numerous events we have had where instability looks good and shear is decent but as activity would progresses into southern New England it would begin to weaken or produce less in the way of severe weather. My idea is that this is due to the fact that the convection is being too far removed from the better upper-level jet dynamics and such. I will also be making note of events which may have been influenced by an EML or steep lapse rates associated with cold pools. This is going to be exciting! I've known I've wanted to do this as my topic for years and was really hoping to have already started but putting forth the time for that ASAP

There is alot of focus on tomorrow morning (and for good reason obviously) but the afternoon and evening can't go without mention. Some indications are there could be a decent-sized area of rather steep low-level lapse rates early tomorrow afternoon. It's going to be quite breezy tomorrow but if we can muster up decent CAPE (like 1200-1500) which is very possible given those steep lapse rates and high llvl moisture/high theta-e it won't take much for some wet microbusts tomorrow. 

Also for the morning...pretty decent H5 jet max progged to arrive very early. If that can time with some convection things may be interesting somewhere. 

To point out...this is all low probability stuff but the potential is certainly there and it's worth noting 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll trade winter QPF for summer QPF but only to a point.

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Inside your cat eh?  Typing while driving

Lol. 

I’m parked in a parking lot but I hate typing on phones and I don’t bother to spell check.