weatherwiz

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop posting about a few possible rumbles and get this looked into, now. 

I got it settled. Lesson learned...don’t let family (or anyone) keep a bill on in your name b/c if they don’t pay you’re screwed. But I did what I needed so I should be all clear now. Thank you a ton for your advice/help 

That activity with the warm front though may end up crewing things up a bit but at the same time enhancing potential locally. I'd watch that though this afternoon as it moves through central and northern New England depending on how the shear situation works out. 

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nam been doing well with severe lately around these parts. Already prefered by OKX this morning. Severe day ahead, be prepared. 

Things this morning look quite intriguing although there are still some uncertainties...or disagreements. but instability is looking incredibly impressive...we could be looking at MLCape values approaching 2000-3000 when shear is increasing. HRRR/3km NAM do hint at some discrete like cells later on this afternoon and early evening and with secondary development around 6z. 

I wonder if this is a day where Albany and Upton would do a special balloon launch? 

9 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

A repetitive negative hit from a a delinquent account that has been reporting multiple years is very bad. You need to dispute that if it is not yours. Someone may have opened a fraudulent account in your name, or it is something you forgot about completely. Your credit report will show you the debt collector that now owns that account. You will have to contact them and figure out what is going on.

This is something I'm worried about. I know back in 2009 I defaulted on a loan (which I was beyond stupid at the time) but that should be off my report by now and outside of that there are no bills (cell phone, credit card, car insurance/payments) that I have missed a payment on or been late on ever. But this is something I will certainly do. Thank you for the input! 

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

A lot of the flashy parameters are basically 3 km and lower, so I wonder if it is just a crappy day to be radar operator where storms are shallow and subtly severe or clearly tornadic.

That’s certainly a possibility..and would virtually mean that the meh mid-level lapse rates don’t matter in this case. I know at least the 12z NAM bufget showed 0-1km CAPE values almost at 100 J. LCL’s too are quite low and there is a great deal of CAPE and shear around the LCL height. Storm motion too almost looks like that alone can enhance helicity even more 

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Could be, but the HRRR is attempting to fire things around dawn on the nose of the LLJ. That could certainly muck up clear skies for New England. 

I wonder if we can escape that down this way. Seems like this tries to happen northwest of here and that activity that does develop may try to strengthen through the morning as it heads into central/northern New England. If things sort of time right with that seems like it’s also just ahead of the warm front so maybe a line of broken supercells? 

Down here in CT we may escape and be able to push well into the mid 80’s for highs...although nothing really approaches (per 3km NAM) until 0z and then completely falls apart but then a huge redevelopment around 6z. 

Not much of a cap tomorrow so and some of the soundings down here are quite impressive by 20-21z so if a cell can pop and there is enough upper support around it has plenty to work with 

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't love how the CAMs seem to be trending towards convection arriving later in the day for WNE. 

Like the HRRR has a pocket of clearing, but it doesn't move into New England until 19z. That's not a lot of time to destabilize.

Do you think cloud cover is a bit overdone?  (This link I used to use to see cloud top temps doesn’t seem to have it anymore so not sure if there are indications of warning tops) but the IR doesn’t look horrible. 

But yeah I agree that the timing of things so late could be concerning. The NAM though does have some solid s/w energy moving through between 21z and 0z which I would think should initiate things sooner. 

5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The parameters in place are quite high, can't ignore that threat.

what's the forcing mechanism? 

86/68 here...almost beautiful. Wish dews were over 70

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some guidance has nothing. So, would keep things a bit tempered. But late aftn evening looks good in wrn areas again. Perhaps spreading east overnight.

what was the Euro like? 

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is this looking like most of the past events this summer or does something higher on the Fujita scale threaten? 

eh...when it comes to convection I think it is very difficult to compare events. You can compare synoptic features and upper-level patterns but that doesn't always translate to similar outcomes. 

With this setup we have increasing shear (though nothing overly crazy but sufficient), plenty of low-level moisture, and plenty of instability (mainly due to the presence of rich low-level moisture). Mid-level lapse rates are meh but we have a good shortwave and decent height falls. So we have pieces there it's just a matter of how do they come together?

Questions also regarding cloud cover, any ongoing precip in the morning, etc also play into things. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If you don’t have a financial advisor then try your bank. 

Not a bad idea. My credit score keeps dropping and I'm not sure why...well I have an idea b/c it's dropped quite a bit. I have applied for several credit cards and loans and such the past few years which I know isn't really a good thing (as far as score impact) but when I check free monthly score from my bank it lists like top 3 reasons (not sure if that's applied to me or just in general) but a listing of a  derogatory account has popped up and I am very confused b/c I pay all my bills on time. Haven't missed any sort of payment on anything since like 2008 or 2009. Thanks for the tip!! 

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I'm surprised Ryan hasn't chimed in. Does look interesting tomorrow.

Think he's on vacation 

Random question...

Are there people who can can go to and have them go over your credit report with you and such so if you had questions they could help answer them and provide some insight/advice? (And yes I know I would have to pay some money and I would be fine with that...just as long as it isn't anything overly crazy then I would just figure out some things myself). 

GFS just as impressive

Yikes

Looks like storm mode may initially be discrete across eastern NY then forming into segments. Maybe some QLCS’ tomorrow?

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Time is ticking...severe season quickly coming to an end soon.  

21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopefully won’t impact my flight from BDL @ 8:30pm.

Could be close. Models show activity moving through around that time 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It just depends on warm front location and any leftover WAA convection and debris clouds. Might last through Friday night as decent upper level support accompanies this.

Shear does increase late afternoon into the early overnight. Nice little ULJ too 

10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is rather impressive on Friday.

yeah when I saw that yesterday morning I was quite impressed. This is 6z NAM for Waterbury, CT Friday evening

NAM is very interesting for Friday. 

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great call on the hail Wiz

https://twitter.com/bobmaxon/status/1029382823508148225

wow didn't realize things were popping up already!

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What are the freezing altitudes?   

The general synopsis: I tend to think not with heights so high...  

Doesn't mean you can't ... but, sustaining updraft through a sub-freezing pressure level is how you get hail ... with heights so high it's hard to imagine the glaciation depths being that massive.   

As this trough opens up, it's nadir is all of 582 dm, and filling as it goes, not falling. 

I've been hammering this but it's an odd atmospheric rarity to sustain cut-off features at mid and upper levels with heights that high to begin with - both a plausible atonement to the state of everything but ... and a course for a digression no one apparently wants to admit or have.  

Excluding that being a ominous sign for a moment ... this looks like green tinted rain curtains more than anything else.  

 

Freezing levels are right around 10,500' or so today with the (weakening) cold pool moving pretty much overhead. We do have some modest 0-6km shear too. I was thinking we could see something similar to that of western PA yesterday where they had a few 1'' hail reports. Some decent breaks of sun (at least in Danbury) so I think we should generate enough instability. Already 300-500 J of hail CAPE per mesoanalysis and we should end up with between 1000-1500 J of MLCape.