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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

    Ah, I thought you were a complete excel moroon. Yea what MetHerb said.

    well I sort of am lol. I knew it a bit more back like 15 years ago when I was in high school but then after high school I never used it and fell behind the 8-ball with all the additional features and such. I got back into it around 2011 when I started doing stuff with tornado data and I had things figured out but then I got away from it for some years when I went back to school and I completely forgotten everything I had done lol. 

    Basically what I'm doing is inputting tornado data for the month of March and doing several "climo" period breakdowns...1950-1965 is one of them. So I'll take the average of this period, use the STDEV.P function to get a standardized value, then I can take a monthly value, subtract it from the average and divide by the STDEV.P value and that nets the standard deviation...at least I hope this is correct. 

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

    Just input the data, excel can sort in any way you like afterwards.

     

    Just now, MetHerb said:

    Excel will take the data any way you have it and find the highest of lowest values.  It doesn't need to be sorted like that.  I have my entire weather record in Excel and have many cases where I need to know the highest or lowest values in a range.  It doesn't matter how the range is laid out - it will find the highest or lowest values.

    Thanks...this is what I figured but these newer updates get me all confused and some things I know are a bit different. Now they have all these different standardized options. I originally had used the STDEV.P function which I guess will still apply here. I'm going to take an online course in excel lol 

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

    My theory is this. If you have to eat junk or want some Pepsi or something, you are better off just drinking the real thing. You aren’t doing yourself any favors by drinking diet soda or anything 

    Diet soda is probably one of the worst things that are out there. A friend of mine's mom had a heart attack several years back and the doctors attributed it directly to diet coke. 

    • Like 1

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

    So you want to compare an active year with a range that includes that year which is already a relatively small sample size? If you've already worked on a larger sample, why are you choosing 1990-2004? Is there cherry picking going on here?

    I'm not necessarily choosing that specific time frame...it was more of just for an example context. I'm just trying to figure out how I would go about this in the most accurate way possible. 

    What I was thinking of doing was use the data I've calculated for all the baseline periods (I also have the calculations of comparing a single year to the averages) and then just construct a list of most active years and least active years (but in this case season is year because I'm just doing seasons right now). 

    So say I do like March of 1965. March of 1965 had 34 confirmed tornadoes. 

    The March 1950 - Present average is 50 and standardized number was 27.6436

    So comparing March of 1965 to the 1950 - present average that March was -0.58 standard deviations below average. Then I could just compare March of 65 for all the other periods. 

    The point would be to just look at teleconnections/patterns and such and comparing active vs. inactive periods.

     

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

    Sounds like this may be a criminal offense.

    :lol:

    I'm in a pickle right now. I was doing my senior research project on upper-level jet dynamics and Northeast severe weather but I was thinking of perhaps switching to something I was working on with tornadoes but I don't want to do anything that's going to be stupid or wrong. I had been doing a little something (which I started like 7 years ago) about quantifying tornadoes and determining what constitutes as an active or inactive season. I have computed averages and standard deviations using the following periods; 1950 - Present, 1950-1991 average, 1992- Present average, and then I did 15-year intervals...1950-1964, 1960-1974, 1970-1984, 1980-1994, 1990-2004, 2000-2014. Let's say I choose to right now focus on like 1990-2004...I was just wanted to make sure it's not incorrect to compare like 1998 to that 1990-2004 average

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

    Use natural/raw sugar, if you’re going to sweet things up at all. And the downside of liquid sugar isn’t the extra calories, I see plenty of skinny people pound a pepsi. It’s all the other things that have been scientifically proven to negavtively impact the body and mind. You still in college chasing little girls, I get it, you feel indestructible....but life creeps on you hard and fast when you hit your 30s. 

    Trust me this isn't true :lol:

    I'll be 30 in October but I've known for a while I really need to improve dieting and such. Once I finish school when all I really have to worry about is work. But I have also been switching to French Vanilla creamer when I make my own coffee and with this I don't add any sugar. But it's not a bad idea to can the liquid sugar. 

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

    https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/liquid-sugar-calories

    Ehhh in the end there really isn’t a whole lot out there that is truly healthy for you...especially in this day and age with all the crap out in stuff. 

    And I must be an outlier b/c all those affects about leading to eating more and taking in more calories and gaining weight seems to have skipped me. As far as heart disease goes it runs pretty high in my family anyways. If something is in your genetics there isn’t much you can do. 

    And all those effects listed (and the same thing goes with everything that’s bad out there) you’re not guaranteed to suffer from those effects...the odds just increase. 

    But with all this said once I get myself on a less intensive schedule not having school and working 7 days a week I do plan on drastically changing my diet and start exercising. My diet now is horrific

    Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Chinook said:

    I have an interesting question about prediction. Does the NWS WPC provide any QPF map for Hawaii at any time? Now that the event is half-over (or something like that,) and the floods have already occurred, I am wondering if there is any way to get a model QPF for Hawaii other than GFS/ other global models?

    I have that same exact question and I have been able to find nothing. In fact, I have had trouble finding sources to view model data for Hawaii. Tropical Tidbits was probably the best site because you could get pretty close on HI but the products are very limited. I had juse been using the MAG page from NOAA and clicking the HI sector and using the few models available to look at projected rainfall totals. 

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