weatherwiz

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You're looking at two different things there. The XOver is using the UPS crossover technique, where if your temps fall below the minimum dewpoint for the day fog is more likely. The MRi is modified Richardson number (think mechanical mixing). If it is high enough the atmosphere is stable, if it is low or negative the atmosphere is too unstable and wind will likely mix fog out.

Thank you! I knew it had to be easy to understand  

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/tools/BUFKIT/training/UB_Fog/UB_Fog.html

Thanks! This didn't show up when I searched fog tutorial on google. 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

HRRR has probabilities of certain VIS, same with SREF. Otherwise you're probably limited to looking at forecast soundings.

I mean in the end looking at soundings is the best way to go for fog forecasting. Tough though when you're focusing on a large geographic region (but I guess could just look at the visibility products and narrow things down). 

Is there any sort of documentation which describes the fog tab in bufkit? It seems pretty straight forward, but I'm just uncertain how to interpret the graphs...like the bottom left where it has air/ground temp (when playing with the numbers negative values seem to correlate to fog being more likely) and the bottom right (MRi and displacement/dispersal product I don't fully understand)  

Are there any good model products for forecasting or assisting with forecasting fog? On Ryan Maue's site he has a visibility product, but there has to be something which gives like fog probabilities or something. 

5 hours ago, cny rider said:

Pretty sure that's the schematic for the play the Dolphins used to beat the Pats on Sunday.

On 12/10/2018 at 3:24 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Arctic shortwave approaching southern Manitoba, Canada is digging southward more than modeled, this could mean big changes come in the nowcasting of this storm.

Does this arrow showing the dry air moving northeast mean I'll see sun tomorrow? 

33 minutes ago, StormSurge said:

Congrats Wiz!

And uh, I had a tornado a mile from my house.  

Thank you. Just b/c one out of the 10000 events panned out at your location doesn't mean it's now not a death zone

Does anyone know if this site is working? I've always had trouble generating the airmass trajectories. I think I've been able to do it once.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/hypub-bin/traj1.pl

On 12/3/2018 at 8:31 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Congratulations Paul.  You’ve come a long way

On 12/3/2018 at 8:56 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Congrats, Wiz! 

On 12/3/2018 at 9:02 PM, #NoPoles said:

Wizzy, congrats man, that's awesome!

On 12/3/2018 at 9:06 PM, Hoth said:

Don't do it. Hamden has some very nice areas, but this town is a fiscal crisis within a fiscal crisis and the taxes are absurd relative to neighboring towns. North Haven or Wallingford are better options for taxes, snow and severe. Congrats on the gig btw!

On 12/3/2018 at 9:06 PM, #NoPoles said:

@weatherwiz i might have a dress you can borrow

On 12/3/2018 at 9:27 PM, powderfreak said:

Well done dude... you've always wanted to be a met from your time on the boards going way back.  Great to see it happening for ya.

On 12/3/2018 at 9:32 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats wiz...you've come a long way from selling hotdogs at the little league field during 6/1/11. 

 

On 12/3/2018 at 9:35 PM, yoda said:

Congrats Wiz.  Just remember that there is no good severe up there

On 12/3/2018 at 9:40 PM, dendrite said:

Congrats Paul. Have a 40.

On 12/3/2018 at 10:44 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Awesome job Paul.

23 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice Paul. That calls for a steel reserve.

14 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Awesome news.  Me and Miley are psyched for you.

 

4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Congrats Paul, A lot of hard work has paid off.

Thank you all so much! It really means alot. Many of you here have played a tremendous part in where I am today. The feeling is great. And I am going to have my last 40 ever next Tuesday night  

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice Wizzy. Where is the job?

It's down in Branford right off 54. Called PeriShip. Not a bad area. It's a nice drive too from West Hartford, but it's brutal from Danbury. Luckily while I've been in school I work remotely and just go in on Friday, but once school is done I'll go in every day. I think in a few years or so I will look to move down that way (though not along the coast b/c t'storm death zone) but was thinking Hamden...nice jackpot for snow and severe

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

nice, Wiz--congrats!

Thank you. 

54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats man , got a job lined up? Personal forecaster for the love of your life in Tolland?

I do and right here in CT. 

I started working there in April (was supposed to be an internship, but since they didn't have a meteorologist on staff it didn't qualify as an internship). I really enjoy it b/c it involves forecasting across the country and I've gained a ton of experience with weather outside of CT. 

Yay tomorrow I present my senior research and then I basically just have two finals and that's it!!! I just hope I don't have any incomplete's on the MATLABS. 

For those that use bufkit...I've been doing alot lately playing with those values next to the momentum transfer option (1, 10, 20, and 30). I know that they correlate to mixing strength and depth of the mixing layer, however, I don't really understand more beyond this and I've tried to find some information online. What do you want to be looking at and looking for when deciding which of the thresholds to use? The differences in terms of wind potential can be HUGE too. For example, at EWR tomorrow night...if you set the threshold at a 1 you get like no gust potential, however, if you set it at a 10 all of a sudden you're talking about 25-35 knot gusts. 

Does anyone understand how to interpret TNI (Trans-Nino Index) and use it to classify an ENSO event as west-based or east-based? I read some papers on it, but I am still a bit confused. I understand that the TNI index takes the difference between SST's in the western and eastern PAC (measures the gradient). 

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What about a normal gtg that isn’t in the city? It would be nice to get others from western areas and CT. Funky Murphy’s always worked.

I agree. I mean if this was going to be on a Monday I wouldn't be able to make it anyways. Would easily be 3 hours for me to get to Boston and by the time I would get there it would just be time to come back. I made it to the Monday one last year but traffic was a headache and I ended up paying $40 for parking. 

In addition to the holiday one I don't see why we can't just plan a spring/early summer one now on a Saturday and throw dates out. 

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

7.6" here.

ho ho ho 

Many from Hartford on south are going to end up with 8-12''. Who would have thought ratios nearing 20:1? Still coming down decent too but doesn't look like the 2''/hr stuff that's been ongoing.

7'' on Westside Campus in Danbury. Been going like 2'' per hour since 4:30 or so. These ratios are freaking nuts. 

The speed of this is going to hurt for higher potential totals but I think there is going to be a very narrow zone of incredibly heavy snow Friday morning...like 2-3'' per hour type stuff, but the band only sits for like a few hours or so. 

Looks like we get two waves of activity? The first wave is tomorrow afternoon with WAA , but looks like there is room for something on Friday with developing/deepening sfc low? Was just looking at 6z GFS and it was quite interesting. Even NAM has something but not placed like the GFS. Haven't gotten to Euro yet. 

I wish on Maue's site you could hover over to see values. Sort of tough to see but on the 18z Euro looks like 850's are still marginal? Also, anyone think H7 temps may be a little marginal as well? Was only seeing like -4 or -5? Thinking we could see a nice little thump of wintry stuff down this way on the onset (hopefully dry air won't be a problem), but probably quickly change over here

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Pretty sure that was from all of the 40s.

as much as inflation has gone up...since when I first started drinking 40's until now...they've only gone up like $.70 or so

I bet so many out there just want whichever provides the most model snowfall graphics lmao (not saying that about anyone from in here) 

19 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Congrats... you’ve been grinding. I was working full time for a good chunk of the time I was getting my degree. It’s not easy working and going to school full time.

Now I’m at a job that has nothing to do with my degree, and that I probably didn’t even need a degree for lol.

Just the way it goes sometimes 

It's so not easy. The past 4-5 years I've been on the go legit 7-days a week...whether it would be classes, work, or sometimes both. Over the past 4-5 years if I have had 15-20 days where I didn't have to work or go to class I think I would be lucky. In the end though I guess the grind has been worth it...even though I probably took 20 years off my life lol. Luckily, I was able to not only land a weather forecasting job, but while I am still in school. 

Man am I starting to freak out. I'm doing my "mid-way" senior research presentation Wednesday with my final presentation sometime in the first week of December and I only have 5-weeks left and then I am all...done for good   (hopefully)   

I recently purchased a subscription for Ryan Maue's models and it's not terrible. For $10 a month you can access to Euro products...I wish there were more products available but I'm sure this will continue growing over time.

What I would love to see happen though is for the College of DuPage to perhaps considering exploring going a subscription route to incorporate Euro data as well. Their model interface and products they keep making available are just top notch. 

I can't stand though all these ridiculous model snowfall graphics...just such a waste.