weatherwiz

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here may be a couple windows for accumulating snow...first is like 3/6-3/8 and then if that high from central Canada presses down could be another from like 3/10-3/12. 

They aren’t great setups as it looks now but better than anything else recently. 

Looks like a split flow wants to try and develop around that time-range...actually even looks tad omega block-ish like too. At least with this there wouldn't be a SE ridge to deal with. Shift the ridge axis a bit west and that could favor something to really amplify should something dig into the OV

Warm Kevin is my favorite. I used to like waking up in the morning and running to my computer to reads Kevin warm posts during the warm season...was the best part of the day. I would do that before anything else and then I would feel all warm and fuzzy inside and walk around the rest of the day with a big smile on my face. 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Typical shallow rad cold for them. I've struggled to get below zero up here. I haven't had more than 2 straight days of sub 32F since before Christmas. That's pretty pathetic.

Jesus...that's beyond pathetic.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Only posts like that made a month out naturally won’t always verify. Apples to oranges when a thread fails two days out.

ehhh it's all in good fun and jabbing. 

I kinda jumped the gun on this...overlooked (or well didn't look) a few things which if I had I probably wouldn't have made this thread. I focused too much on dynamics/lapse rates and didn't even bother to look at theta-e/llvl moisture. 

but it's also the tone of things...I like sticking my head out and trying to make actual forecasts/calls and get away from the notion of "if this happens then this will result". I notice that quite a bit on twitter and I think those posts put the wrong ideas in peoples head. It's not the person's fault who is putting forth the information though...it's how the information is being perceived.  

Even the past month with all these "signals" on the EPS about changes...were those changes really of any merit? When you take into account the structure hemispheric pattern that has been place I don't think any of them ever did. The biggest thing (in my mind was) a lack of a mechanism to disrupt this pattern/circulation to make such changes go through.

Just now, dendrite said:

We've had impressive cold shots?

The one a few weekends back where places up north were like -20 to -30. IDK...I find that "impressive",,,at least in this winter 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

0.4” here this month. This winter needs to go eff itself. Luckily it’s over. We warm up late next week and then mid Morch.

Wednesday is a day where with any sun BDL could tickle 70. Going to be some strong mixing ahead of the front 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 Signals have been there for a while March was going to be predominately above-average. Remember the first week of March was supposed to be cold   Not going to get any long-sustained cold blasts with this look:

500 zonal wind anomalies since Jan 1...easy to see why we've been predominately on the warmer side but you can also see how we can sneak in those brief bursts of (and at times) impressive cold shots. 

Given the state of the Arctic combined with the move towards the equinox March is going to be warm...and potentially quite warm

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What total joke this thread was...I mean really???  This is the first I’ve been here...glad I only wasted 30 seconds on this.  Wiz looking for a rumble of thunder in February, lol. 

Certainly was a joke...just like the hundreds of posts throughout the winter stating "winter is coming", "changes are coming", "there's our pattern change at day 10". Same too about posts about a big cold shot first week of March. . 

It's going to be wild from the OV to the Gulf coast first half of next week. Going to be some significant flooding along with severe 

There was actually some small hail in PA last night 

13 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

darn, failed a February threat

When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out. 

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Except we know 24 hrs out that it's a fail. First tstm fail down, many more to come. 

you are such a weenie deflater 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Fail as usual 

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This was a waste of electrons

well now I am in the same boat as everyone else with calling for the fake winter threats that never transpired. 

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wrong, So you buying what CPC is selling for the next 15 mos? I for one, Don't waste anytime on any seasonal model or even the weeklies as far as that goes, We have deterministic models that run 4 times a day that can't get forecasting correct over short periods never mind weeks and months in advance.

But you can’t compare long-range/seasonal models with short-term models. They’re completely different in terms of parameterizations, equations, physics, etc. 

Statistically climate models are more likely to be accurate. 
 

but in terms of buying what the CPC is showing for 15-months...it has nothing to do with buying or selling...it’s not like they’re just pulling this out of their ass. Significant amount of work goes into the construction of these forecasts. Will every month end as so...perhaps not. But the fact of the matter is, given the climate regime we’re in AN is going to win out over BN. 
 

further complicating matters is analogs and these correlations that were once a thing are losing merit b/c we’re continuing to find ways to yield temperatures overall which are warmer than average. 

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well, considering no model did great this year on 10 day forecast why even look at forecast for three months out?  

Long-range and climate models actually have a better skill. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I only periodically check but rarely get involved. There really isn’t a benefit unless you are promoting yourself, your company, or your profession. Otherwise it simply a platform for folks to spew their opinions without much of an educational value. 

social media I think is bad news. There's certainly some good with it but I often debate with myself if the value outweighs the bad. 

It's creeping

42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You let SM bother you too much. Should stay off of it, if so.

This is actually very true 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

How did you come up with this? All we saying is such extended experimenting outlooks should be taken with a grain of salt...even if it showed uber cold. 

A combination of all sources...here + social media. It's been known for years that across all weather platforms individuals who aren't in the camp of snow/cold get ridiculed. Some of the big time posters from here left b/c of being attached (mainly in NYC threads) anytime they would post something that was against such scenarios. If you follow twitter closely it happens there too...folks that do alot with long-range any time they are not going cold/snow people jump all over them. 

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

They have plenty of mjo and enso regression analysis on their website. They're not just blending models or using the cfs. They know just as much as anyone else out there re: seasonal forecast which is still to say not that much. 

They have added some awesome MJO and ENSO re-analysis and regression products over the past several years...I feel like they've really stepped it up quite a bit with their seasonal forecasting products/research. Were they involved with the AAM data/research or was that another division? It's a shame the individuals who were doing research and providing plots/data retired and they had nobody to take over. 

1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

I don't think it's that.  I know it's shown BN temps and AN precip in the winter and it's not worked out.  I think the angst has more to do with being able to predict something so far out.  I do agree that there are biased people but that's on both sides of the spectrum.

Does anyone have any numbers on accurate the CPC's calls are in different time frames?

I wonder too what the process is behind their seasonal outlooks...do they have folks who specialize in seasonal outlooks or are they mostly derived from long-range seasonal forecast models? I've always been under the impression it is the later. 

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

The cpc is not always above. I'm not sure why people feel need to throw shade without facts. 

when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers 

It makes since how we are running below-average for precipitation this winter given we're below-average in terms of snow. Isn't there a pretty decent positive correlation to precipitation/snowfall departures across our parts? Then as you get like to PHL on south the correlation to snowfall is more related to temperature departures? Like we can still get above-average snowfall with temperatures a bit above-average but go to PHL...very tough to do

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Hungover?

No  

Going to be pretty sick