weatherwiz

The model's structure of that high pressure in the SE tomorrow is pissing me off. 

Just now, dendrite said:

Put this line in BUFKIT

I would probably get James-like output for snow totals 

Looking at the pattern moving forward this could be one of the more active March's in terms of severe in a while. The past 10-years or so have been relatively quiet overall. I think even 2011 was on the quiet side? I know there were one or two years it was pretty active. Want to say like 2010 and 2012 or 2013?

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I never noticed this, but on bufkit on the skew t there are these blue dashed lines for the -12C to -18C isotherms. 

It's actually pretty cute. Can turn off the snow growth overlay now on the skew-t. Get too many different colored lines going on the skew-t. 

I never noticed this, but on bufkit on the skew t there are these blue dashed lines for the -12C to -18C isotherms. 

8 hours ago, yoda said:

You're going to have to go #kansasing with Ian to see severe this year lol

Next year I'll have two weeks vacation so a trip out west will be in the books  

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

That came up after the Joplin EF5, more specifically whether there should be a mandate for new construction to require a shelter. But people don't like governments (state or otherwise) telling them what to do, even if that is for their own safety.

Regardless, we're advancing tornado science quite a bit, but I don't think we're advancing the messaging/preparedness quite as fast.

Looks like perhaps AR or N LA as a hot spot? Quite the impressive overlap of parameters across those areas. I'm sure that will change, but for now the look is quite impressive. 

The messaging/preparedness aspect is very difficult, especially with regards to tornadoes. Even during the biggest outbreaks of the season when you have a large geographical area highlighted for severe thunderstorms and you have mention of tornadoes, it's still really only a small percentage of area affected by tornadoes and you sort of wonder if most people brush off the threat or just don't care to prepare until they're in a warning or they see conditions deteriorating rapidly...and by then it's too late. 

From my limited experience with work and communicating, the biggest challenge is people still want to go about their everyday lives (understandable) and even when you mention how bad the weather may be they'll still take risks. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

severe drizzle maybe

If it's anything like last year we're only like 8 weeks away from some major action. 

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Would that be May for you?

He's tracking snow while we're tracking severe

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Would that be May for you?

oof...12z GFS looks nasty for svr down that way Saturday. If sufficient instability can materialize (large-scale ascent may even compensate) for updrafts to not be negatively impacted by the intense LLJ there are going to be some nasty, nasty storms. 

4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

There was, which made it so shocking to me that so many died. It went through a lot of forested areas for the most part but from the pics and videos I saw, I couldn't tell if there were basements or not. One would think there would be in Alabama for situations like this alone but if it hit much older homes and/or trailers then yeah, they wouldn't have much cover.

Another factor might have been the second tornado that seemed to go right over the same exact track as the first big EF-4. This one was a lot smaller but maybe caught people off guard as communications surely would have been cut off from damage by the the first tornado.

Either way, a 23 death toll seems very high for such an unpopulated area that it hit. I realize not all 23 were from the single EF-4 in East Alabama but the majority were.

I'm guessing that many of those properties were on the older side and didn't have basements (for whatever reasons). 

Your second paragraph makes a great point...didn't even think of that. That most certainly could have been a major factor/contributor. 

I hate this time of year (and the fall) and I hate MOS. Now we're getting into the time of year where MAV/MET data can be worlds apart. For example, MAV has FSD getting only into the mid-teens for a high tomorrow, however, MET pumps them into the mid 20's......AHHHHHH. One day last week there was like a 15F difference at AFW. 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't think there were many basements where those storms went through. 

And we might get to do it all over again Saturday into Sunday.

From looking at the damage photos it didn't really look like there were basements...seems like most people may have been hiding out in closets...at least based on some of the interviews I've seen from people. Seems like most of the buildings may have been rather old too? 

Yeah Saturday doesn't look rather pretty. Mentioned that at work yesterday. Looks like yet another blizzard for the upper-Midwest too. But, that's some significant moisture return being modeled beneath an EML with lapse rates > 8 C/KM.....yikes. 

4 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Terrible situation in the South with the severe weather outbreak associated with our storm. I was streaming a local station down there and had TWC on the TV when the EF4 was rolling along and I remember saying that I hope everyone got info on the warnings. Apparently not with 23 dead

There was solid lead time on the warnings. Unfortunately, when dealing with something so intense there is just nothing you can really do except hope and pray. The monster tore right through the community. You have to wonder too about the structure of the buildings and how safe those folks really were in their basements, closets, or wherever it was they took shelter. 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea last March had some wild swings with reports. I hate being the highest in the area I’m tempted to reduce to 12 and match the trained Monroe spotter but where exactly was he in Monroe and what’s his elevation? No one else in Southbury has a report. 

I think the met KGNY in Oxford/Seymour reported just over 13”.

A friend in Naugatuck reported 12''. I think when you're dealing with rates as intense as what we had last night some big swings in a small distance probably become more likely due to the intensity of the echos. I mean we're talking convectively enhanced precip here...very similar to summer convection where it could be a torrential downpour and 5 city blocks away it's still heavy, but not as intense. 

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pasters will have high variance reports within a short distance. I’m looking at upton’s snowfall report and mine sticks out to others in the area. I think there are too many low reports though, especially from the public or the media. When compared to a trained spotter in Monroe who reported 12.0”, my 13.75” is within the margin of error when you factor in elevation, measuring spot, frequency of clearing, and other random factors. 

I remember last year at school we only had like 11'' and Newtown had 16'' or 17'' lol. 

I think the last few times we've had significant March snow events it's been followed by both an active severe wx season here and tornado events. 

Looking out the window and thinking...man...its a winter wonderland and in two months it will be all green and we'll likely be tracking severe wx...wow

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

by region I mean NY into NNE. 

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks good for scattered snow squalls across the region tomorrow

by region I mean NY into NNE. 

Looks good for scattered snow squalls across the region tomorrow

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Missed seeing these and for those seeing them for the first time black is good, gray oh how we pray 

These maps are what make winter 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You can tell how it follows the coastline and valley. I never look at that.

That's certainly the case with regards to the RAP...although not as much on the NAM NEST. Given what we're looking at though with regards to fronto and omega you would have to wager DBZ's during the heaviest of the snow should be pretty close to 30

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Those sim radar products always get weird and thinks it's bright banding. Beware.

I tried to check some soundings within those areas to see whether or not there was a hint of sleet or maybe melted flakes, but I didn't really see anything suggesting that. Unless that wouldn't work well