weatherwiz

We get fake cold, fake snow, and fake tornadoes. Ahhh this was fun but was May, not April. I can still feel the adrenaline rush 

Let’s see what 2026 can bring. The best part of 2025 weather wise was the gustnado that came within several feet of me back in April. Should watch that video again. 

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

That was last night.

Must be the hangover then 

I think some have had wayyyh to much champagne 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. 
 

Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that. 

Yup...I am intrigued in that period too. Looks quite chaotic and that combined with the variance indicates the pattern should be more on the active side. 

somehow I feel like that energy back in the SW ~7th is holding back on the potential for the wave to amplify a bit more

I would much rather be in a position where the NAO is transitioning from more negative to less negative or to slightly positive then be in a consistently -NAO regime. 

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looking at Tuesday next week for the potential of another clipper to come through the area. 06z GEFS has 24hr QPF mean >.25” for a broad area. May be a bit torch in southern areas but too soon to really delve too much more into. Potential is there for weak system to come through.

Yup...looks like we have room for maybe another 1-3" type event.

In fact, I am shocked the GFS does not have any QPF during the day Tuesday...has the look for hefty snow squalls with thunder/lightning...quite unstable look with a good shortwave rolling through. 

NAM crushed this from a few days ago. Those soundings on the NAM for the Cape were pretty sweet

1.3" of snow 

11.6" on the season 

88.4" away from 100

Had a good feeling about this one the other day

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Bottom line, it’s a pretty nice look…despite the BS that some are spewing.  

Yeah I don't know what else to say. I mean December was not bad overall and it could have been worse. Sure I guess we could have had more snow given how cold it was and yes some areas got more than others, but it wasn't a shutout and nobody got shutout. Were people expecting 20-30"? We get snow...people complain because it wasn't enough, we don't get snow and people complain. People want snow and there are offerings of potential and people complain. I don't even know what the expectations are anymore lol

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GEFs version above looks like a bit of an undercutting/split flow...

It does have that look to it. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right ... the veneer of this is pretty. 360+ hours ...  obviously low skill so whatever.  But this isn't first time we've seen this, this winter season so far.  These ranges of the ensemble means don't typically have coherent pattern signals.  I mean, I've seen less clear pattern implications on a D7 ranged charts plenty of times over the years... Usually, at this extended range, the flow looks annular about the N. Pole, almost equidistant.  You know ...circular.  It's the mean of the noise, of all ensemble members wondering off of daydreams over time.   This intrinsically means that the vast majority of them have a hard on for a -EPO at a range where they pretty much never have clue.  I've never seen this before like I am seeing it this specific winter thus far.    

Can ens

EPS

GEFS

It's definitely an extremely intriguing look and what I like about it is this type of pattern opens the door for some southern stream involvement and that would at least offer some potential for a bigger storm. But why I also love the Jan 10-15 period is we may see a relaxing NAO during that period, or the NAO becoming less negative and at the same time we're seeing variations within the state of the PNA. The pattern will not be void of energy and storm chances. If we want to add another layer to this is we will have the PV displaced on our side of the hemisphere. 

The overall look isn't terrible, in fact, it's probably better to see than these "great looking patterns" that haven't seemed to materialize the last few winters. There will be multiple storm chances over the next 2-3 weeks, probably on the order of one system every 6-9 days. 

I am pretty intrigued in the period of Jan 10-15. But we have a light snow event tomorrow, probably another one in a week, then there could be some room for a bigger storm moving towards mid-month.

This isn't a terrible looking sounding on the Cape. Def unstable in the lowest 3km

But can anyone say Martha's vineyard jackpot?

26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Also there could be some OES enhancement with relatively warm sst in mid 40s and 800Mb temps around -12C.

Yup...great post. The environment isn't too terribly far off from what you would see with a LES environment. Should actually be some weak instability present...not sure if we're looking at enough to yield thunder potential but I could see a very narrow area of enhanced lift. Someone could def pull off 3-4" on the Cape

snow flurries falling!

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And where we are at the moment too.  Because the bombs Paul…they aren’t being affected by this idea in other parts of this country currently.  Just like they weren’t being affected here during the 2000’s and 2010’s. But other parts of the country at that time were struggling, but we weren’t. So that tells me, that again, it’s a cycle.  And we will come out of it, like we did after the last dearth where nothing(very little) worked out here(the 80’s). 

Hey I'm with you...I have no doubt we will cone out of it and we will get smoked again. I get there is a luck factor in this and there are things we don't truly know or understand, but all we can do is try to use data and knowledge to further understand. At this point we are closer to getting out of this and I can't see us staying in this drought for much longer. 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Explain to me like I am 5 years old why a fast flow makes favorable tracks for the midwest and Maritimes more likely than the east coast...the west warm pool, I understand....

It's more of a theory at this point so I don't have a ton of data or reanalysis maps I can throw into this...but would be a fun project to dig deeper. Anyways, we have to look at the jet stream on a global scale and all the influences which shape the jet stream structure, position, and strength. As you know, when the jet stream is faster, it becomes more difficult to really amplify the jet stream (not impossible but just more difficult). I just think that where we are positioned globally, we are in a spot in which the faster winds result in an increased probability for amplification to our west and then just to our east. 

Where I've started to develop this idea was based on some of the weather across the West the last few years. Remember a few years back the West was getting absolutely pummeled for a 6 week stretch which was something more akin to what you would see in EL Nino versus La Nina. The orientation and structure of the jet stream was not what you would typically see. 

This is all a ramble...but I will eventually get back to you with more coherent thoughts. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.

It's not like it's just applicable to our area though, the concept would apply to other areas of the globe too. For us it's just a product of where we reside regionally. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's still dependent on the trough axis, Paul.

correct, and the faster (or slower) flows aloft play a significant role in where ridge/trough axes occur. 

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Been trying to say this for a long while. That’s all you need to see(bombs everywhere else ) to know that idea(Hadley cell and fast flow) is complete BS.   It’s just random bad ju ju…and that’s it. At some point it will change, like it did for us through the 2000’s and 2010’s, when pretty much 90% of all SW’s came together for us no matter what. 

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada. 

What a quiet year and really stretch we have been in for the severe weather department. Although I did get that gustnado back in April which was cool. That September 6 event was pretty crazy though

I think the storm knocked out my internet. Been out for 3 hours. How am I supposed to watch hockey tonight???

The observer must still be salty about the Bills going for 2 and not paying attention