weatherwiz

Time to get some sleep. Aiming to wake up 2-3 AM or maybe a bit after 1. Gotta recharge a bit

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As long as it doesn't slide east  

Looking at upper level water vapor and mesoanalysis...I think I would be a bit shocked if slides east. In fact, I think this will end up tracking somewhat close to what some guidance was showing 0z/12z yesterday...maybe not quite to the extent but I think some of the east jogs we saw today are overstated 

So fun to watch

1 minute ago, ScituateMA said:

Never seen a Civil emergency message before, is this new?

No, they are sometimes issued for wildfires, child abductions, a hazardous spill, etc.

Just now, klw said:

Is that the source of the alien drones over NJ?

very well could be

Lets go!!! This is all new 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured it meant T-snow...hahah Thanks.

Here's a good visual and this is probably one of the more impressive MAULs you usually see

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maps? 

Widespread heavy snow overspreads everyone through the night. Uniform ~30dbz across the state. HRRR also looks to hold onto the snow/banding longer before breaking down than NAM/GFS. Been pretty consistent too with widespread 40-50 mph gusts

No hate on the 20z HRRR holy moly 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Holy shit look at the meso lows on hrrr.

looks like low topped supercells  

Pounding in S NJ and DE

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah some of the models are occluding this pretty quickly.

 

Not sure what will be more correct. But it’s not often we have a 970ish long tracked seclusion going near the BM.

Kinda fascinated to see how it plays out from the outside looking in.

This is going to be extremely fascinating to watch and see how it plays out. What may end up happening too is (and you can kind of see it there) there is enough fire hose to keep the band going but outside of the banding things may wind down quick. That would cause some pretty interesting spreads in totals across a short distance

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR trying to curl this sucker north tomorrow morning.

Let's go curling 

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Is there any reasonable mechanism that would support that?

There could be and probably are many reasons but occlusion too quickly would support shutting off the influx of moisture into the storm but that doesn't really look to be the case. Another possibility is with how quickly the storm is strengthening, the best fronto is collapsing south and east closer to the low but that doesn't seem to be the case either because the front just simply dies over us and we seem to be sort of smoking subsidence. I am still leaning towards this being completely overstated but if this happens we can't say we're surprised by it lol

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Interesting how the GFS just collapses the frontogenesis Monday morning. Sort of weird. 

This has had me scratching my head 

I'm going to install giant windmills in my backyard so I get thundersnow every time

Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that. 

4 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

It'd be a combination of things, but at 3km, the microphysics scheme is the most important. No need for convective parameterization since the resolution will resolve it explicitly.

The NAM uses the 'Ferrier-Aligo' which is pretty old (2001), but that's just part of the story. 

It's performance w/forcing is important too... Looking real quick, it overpredicts specific humidity below 850mb (+ bias). I think that's probably a bigger culprit.

I'm sure there are some articles about this somewhere. You'd really need to do a thorough investigation. 

Thank you!

WOAH Blizzard warning for me. LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

At this point it's time to really shift focus to satellite, radar, and mesoanalysis/HRRR

2 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

I've been looking at the evaluation webpage again. This time, for precipitation (at fcst 24hr for 12z cycles) thresholds. Anywho, for frequency bias, an ideal prediction is 1.0. Negative values indicates underprediction (doesn't predict the occurrence as much as it should), and + values indicate overprediction (predicts the occurrence too often). Note: The NAM 3km consistency overpredicts for all thresholds and is outperformed by the other mesos.

For equitable threat score (removes outliers), an ideal prediction is 1.0 (0.0 indicating no skill). Based on this metric, HRRR performs best for all thresholds over the past 90 days:

 

Seeing some of the globals trend unfavorably will only bother me if the mesos follow.

Thanks for posting this. It seems the 3km NAM is always aggressive with precipitation and development, especially on leading edge of approaching weather systems and out ahead of fronts. I am guessing this is part of its scheme where it just develops precipitation too quickly? I can think of the terminology here but I did a module on MetEd last summer that went into this. 

I haven't see this talked about much but what I think is really going to be a killer in this is going to be areas of major subsidence. I've always been fearful we see a banded precipitation field given how intense the low becomes, but none of the simulated radar reflectivity's have shown this. However, I think it's kind of evident in looking at the fronto banding signatures. 

Ultimately what will happen is there will be spots which make out beautifully and score in the upper end of ranges and there will be spots which struggle to even get to the lower end. No way to really paint that on a map either 

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The goalie should be the MVP

Hellebuyck is the MVP, 1st Star, 2nd Star, and 3rd Star 

SCORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Agree. Wonder if this deepening H5 low and CK vexrion playing havoc. 

That's what I'm thinking. It's very bizarre.