weatherwiz

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

What are we even talking about?!

how far north cirrus gets

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I give it a 10% shot. 

very generous!

Well you need to write a thesis statement of all the "ifs" that need to happen...chances are it isn't happening

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

have to watch it circle the globe to see if it has another shot 

This made me laugh too hard 

I don't know if this is necessarily about bringing the storm more north as much as it is building a precipitation shield farther poleward due to better dynamics. That's probably something to watch for. There really is little to support the storm bumping north, however, if we can increase the dynamics a bit (with assistance from a better northern stream) we might be able to build some light precip into the region.  

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3”?

Nothing like that really. This is also probably more WOR. Someone though could probably pickup 1/2-1" or so.  

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MAY COUNTDOWN TO SNE SEVERE BLUE BALLS!!

I like the color blue 

Kevin is right...there could be some snow showers (even some squalls tomorrow night) but a dry boundary layer might be an issue. That's a pretty potent shortwave diving southeast with very steep mid-level lapse rates

Telling Will which model to use  

Another thing to factor into the Sunday/Monday ordeal too is this is really going to be the first system in quite some time that is convectively active across the deep South and that is something that could negatively influence the northern side of the storm and have much moisture/QPF is really available. 

I've been very confused about this. 

Where has all the talk come from about muting warm ups all winter? Outside of that stretch we had in January, I don't think there's been any [realistic] signals of any "warmups". I mean I suppose you can quantify this week as a "warmup" though its still below climo. Where between January and up until now has there been any true warmups signaled? And 2m temperature anomaly maps from a few OP runs

If we could shift that ridge maybe a couple hundred miles west and pump the heights up a bit more (speaking about pattern beyond the Sun/Mon). I really don't think the second half of the month is totally lost but we'll just have to hope something can work in our favor in terms of overall evolution 

As they say at the DMV,

"NEXT"

Had my first severe weather dream of the season last night. There was a large severe risk from the Plains through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region into the mid-Atlantic. I was deciding on and where to chase. The SPC had wording saying around Detroit would be great and somewhere else. I think an eventual moderate risk came out (a big one) and there were even 5% TOR probs I think which got into SNE. Don't have clear visions or memory of all the details though. But this is always a great sign we're getting closer 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, today we should find out of this is real. If it goes well, I'll probably have a threat assessment tomorrow and a First call on Friday.

Whatever happens though, this period has been well discussed since really the beginning of the month. Obviously it's going to suck big time if this doesn't pan out but it goes to show that 

1) Periods of potential can be sniffed out beyond 10 days 

2) How the pieces move and evolve ultimately play a significant role in the outcome 

Stranger things have happened and it seems like a long shot but we'll need an awful lot to work in our favor. That was definitely a weird evolution on the 0z euro as dendrite mentioned. Still have today and even tomorrow we really sort this out though we'd probably want to see big jumps on all guidance today.

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

i wouldn't as long as that was the expectation going in 

That's a great point that need to be added on. 

If I was expecting 20-25" but only got 10"...well the tone may be different  

That mindset is so foolish...no wonder some are always disappointed, too worried about what somewhat else got instead of enjoying what they got. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”? 

I would not. 

I think we're definitely going to be introducing PAC air into much of the country but that doesn't mean we can't or won't snow nor does it mean we can get colder weather at times. The upcoming pattern though looks a bit volatile and active so there is that. I don't want to say we're looking at a gradient pattern but something along those lines is definitely possible. It seems there is higher confidence in how the Pacific evolves (though guidance has struggled with this) with lower confidence in the evolution of the Arctic which may be tied into the models toying around with SSW potential. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. 

have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon 

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

W flow and some sun…850s are relatively warm to start with CAA. I could see 38-43 W to E with midday highs. 

That's my assumption too with the flow and 850s but for some reason soundings on bufkit are struggling to really mix. Could just be something funky going on with that

I'm curious on temperatures tomorrow. MOS/NBM are about 40 for places like BOS/BDL but I wonder if many spots may only get into the mid 30's or so. 

This is going to be a weird one tonight. Outside of parts of New Hampshire and Maine I don't think we're going to be seeing anything uniform tonight. I could see many not even picking up 1/2" of snow while some are lucky and puke out 2-3". Lots of convective elements within this and pockets of stronger lift. For those with snow, the ratios are going to struggle too outside of those pockets of stronger lift so I don't think this is one where we "ratio our way" to 3". 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

3 inches in 90 minutes?

Let's shoot for 5

But lets say this convective band is true, I don't think its all snow...I think its a mixture of snow and sleet or maybe more sleet than snow.