weatherwiz

55 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

I don’t think I’ve seen or heard one flying around this year.

Fruit flies on the other hand, goddamn!

This area (well backyard at least) absolutely blows for mosquitos. I am not sure why because there isn't any areas of water around. But once it starts getting dark out it seems they magically come out of nowhere. It really sucks because I like to sit outside during the evening but can't, they're too ruthless. Bug spray doesn't evening work...hell I am convinced those suckers have evolved to the point that it doesn't even bother them. 

Was outside for 2 seconds and started getting destroyed by mosquitos 

It's been a while since we had one and the last few attempts didn't work out. I started the dates around mid-October since early October probably is too short notice (and selfishly I'll be away the first weekend of October and presenting at TriState Weather Conference the following week). 

I am hoping with some advanced lead time we can get a good gathering. I know November/December will also be difficult with holidays and I didn't put Halloween as an option as those with kids will probably be out getting candy. 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say that the 1877 event was pretty similar to this and that winter sucked.

I've read a bit on that event. That was some serious stuff in terms of global impact, particularly to the fishing industry and ocean life. 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad.

I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.

Well said. 

And like Scott was saying, you do need to be careful with just applying linear logic of just taking previous strong EL Nino events and "energizing them". We very well may see a winter which does not match well at all with any of the previous stronger events. Reason for this is our database on those is so small and they're so infrequent that there are scenarios that just have not occurred. I mean look at what's happened to how our understanding of ENSO has changed even in the last 20 years and this is because as the datasets grow we introduce more possibilities and outcomes.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it is as simple as that, who knows. But it’s such a huge expanse of warm water. Just a little hesitant in applying that thinking.

The size of the +28C to +29C water temperatures within the Tropical Pacific is ridiculous. Even +20C off Mexico and into the Baja.

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Get out of my head.

Adding on to my reply to Scott in your winter thread about the ridiculous graphic from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense. He is favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south. I don't think that is totally true but I do know alot of generic stuff out there on EL Nino mentions this. I think there seems to be confusion out there on the different branches of the jet stream.

The cooler/wetter patterns which plague the southern states during EL Nino I think is related a a stronger jet (which we all know) but its a stronger sub-tropical jet stream which can have the tendency to be displaced a bit further NORTH and its the cooler/more active track which plays a bigger role in the temperature anomalies. But its the stronger jet which is more critical versus the displacement. The polar jet also tends to be displaced further north, hence the lack of Arctic cold outbreaks penetrating south. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

For CT at least, July 4th was a pretty big widespread severe event day. Otherwise, pretty much crickets. It's not that it's quiet, it's that north south and west of us have had big years. Hell, even the fish have seen better storms than some of us. 

 

Going to need a lot more than warm SSTs for something off the coast. Tropical waves can't get to the western Atlantic because shear is absolutely obliterating them. Dolly formed, ran into a buzzsaw, and even when it found a favorable environment off the SE coast it couldn't do anything because there was nothing left. 

Going to need either a well-timed wave to make it through the gauntlet into the Bahamas late September or a CAG system yanked north in October. Anything popping off a stalled front is just going to pass well OTS.  

20-30 years of a quiet(er) Atlantic...

Agreed. The prospects for anything seem super slim...would need something to probably form along a stalled front...no waves are going to make it that far west, especially considering the shear should only continue strengthening through the MDR

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Segment from July 25th blog:

Alternative Scenarios....AKA "What can Go 'Wrong' "

Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability

 

There has been a primary emphasis within this writing to adequately portray the sun as the both the omnipotent and omnipresent figure that it is as it pertains to the earth's atmosphere. Indeed, from it's influence on the polar domain via the modulation of ENSO by the degree of solar irradiance emitted, it's modulation of the arctic via the transmission of geomagnetic energy via the solar wind throughout the stratosphere, it's reach around the globe is boundless. It has also been established that the atmosphere in largely governed by the oft delayed feedback between the land, sea and air that serves to budget the immense degree of solar energy that is concentrated around the equator by redistributing it upward. First in altitude via the convergence and upward ascent of air due to convection, which is a term referring to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. Then eventually poleward by both major storms such as hurricanes, which are essentially spinning gyres of convection, as well as ocean currents and oscillations. This epitomizes how the cycle of ocean and air processes act to budget heat around the globe, which was touched upon in an oblique manner when referencing the interplay between the sun and the poles at work in the "bottom-up" theory. The work of Sciafe et al, 2013 is revolutionary in that it ostensibly bridges the previously discussed works concerning polar sensitivity to the solar cycle with prior research (Czaja, 2002) positing a 6 month lag between the leading of the NAO by the 500mb pattern over the Atlantic. The work posits the Atlantic also has a sensitivity to solar UV variability that triggers an immediate atmospheric signature that takes several years to accumulate in the subsurface of the ocean, during which time the atmospheric response progressively increases as part of a coupled feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The response continuously projects onto the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the familiar tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, as referenced by Cjaza et al (2002), with a lag time of 2-4 years (Sciafe et al 2013). Thus is it is reasonable to conclude from the preponderance of evidence owed to a multitude of varied research efforts that changes in solar irradiance along the progression of the solar cycle trigger instant surface responses that subsequently progress through the subsurface, and then ultimately resurface through a process of meridional overturning. This reemergence fosters a delayed feedback (6 months) between the sea and air that can be self-sustaining. Member stormchaserchuck1 at Americanwx.com weather forum has put this theory into practice. His index consists of a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the

 

  North Atlantic (blue box - red box). Because the northern area has more volatility, the total dataset, SSTs and NAOwere normalized by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. 

When blue box is cold SSTs, a negative NAO is implied for Winter.

 When red box in warm SSTs, a negative NAO Winter. For comparison, and red box is 65%

 value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa.

Thus far, through July 15, which is about 50% of the way through the identified May 1st- September 30th period, it is estimated that the index currently signals approximately a -0.40 for DJFM NAO predictor. Since the standard deviation is .50, there is it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO calculate between -0.90 and +.10.

The .40 mean of the polar analog composite would rival the 2012-2013 season and would be the most negative NAO season since 2009-2010. Unsurprisingly, both of these seasons occurred during the easterly phase of the QBO and coincided with the ascending portion of the solar cycle. Given the previously discussed westerly phase of the QBO that is ongoing in conjunction with the pending peak geomagnetic energy, it is expected that this formula will normalize over the course of the next two+ months. In the event that it does not, it should be interpreted as a nod towards the increased volatility within the polar domain relative to the classic east-based seasons that has been advertised. The fact that ample evidence has been provided for increased volatility during the second half of the DJFM winter season also implies that this may represent a feasible plausibility that will need to be evaluated over between now and the onset of boreal winter

Great stuff.

I am curious as to what influence the northern Pacific will have on the Arctic domain this winter. Obviously the are backing off the vast -PDO regime we had been in, with help to the developing EL Nino but we are in unique territory regarding the state of the PDO. This is a situation where I don't think a raw numerical values tells the entire story here. Clearly we're heading towards more in the way of a +PDO structure but those absurdly warm anomalies from Japan across the north Pacific IMO still reflect which is by large a -PDO. 

Based on how the EL Nino has developed, combined with the state of the Pacific, my anticipation would be an significantly far north sub tropical jet this winter and once that is very juiced. Now, that is something that could bode well for us if the cards align but we'd also be talking about a raging jet and it may be very difficult to get surges of Arctic air to displace southwards. I would have to think we would need to see a -NAO/AO of historic territory to give any shot. Even if we did get a -NAO during the winter, it may not be much help and if anything could increase potential for warmth if its structured in a way where the above average heights connect with the jet and propels it even further north. 

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was adamant that it would do away... I do not expect a mean -NAO this winter.

yeah I don't get what all that hype and "doomsday" view on that was all about. At least IMO, a part of me believes too its part of the decline of the +AMO regime as we strive towards a -AMO regime. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

What a stupid vapid graphic. 

I've never watched his severe coverage videos so I have no opinion on them. From what I've heard they're pretty great but I've seen a few of his YouTube videos and shorts that pop up when I'm browsing and they are not particularly good. Not sure if he is a met or not but some of what he says doesn't make sense or is inaccurate. Can't remember the exact details of some instances off the top of my head b/c they were just too cringe worthy.   

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Hopefully.. those waters are pretty much untouched so far.. 

The upper-level pattern has done wonders to really warm the waters too in recent weeks. +28C to +29C up to the NC/VA border

Speaking of water temperatures, where all the people freaking out about that "cold blob" in the north Atlantic that is no longer really there  

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

Back yard or facing the street?

Makes a difference!

Big Y parking lot 

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was it really exciting ?

almost took clothes off 

Just got a brief downpour! 

I think I'm ready for fall...more so because I'm pumped NFL season starts Wednesday and NHL in 3.5 weeks. Once you get these cloudy days and it makes the earlier sunsets super apparent and dealing with the darker earlier mornings that's a sign to wave the white flag on summer and start moving onto the next season. 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like a very near miss to me. I had flights and hotels pulled up yesterday though.

probably just misses east but given the strength, way too close to totally write off now for some of those islands. Big Island probably fine outside of dangerous waves but those far northwestern islands...I'd be a little sweaty if I were them.

Some concerning guidance and trends for at least portions of the Hawaiian Islands regarding Lowell

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

looks like an April -NAO retrograde jet coming from the NE too

Certainly going to start feeling more like Fall. Really sucks we could not tap into any of the heat/higher humidity.

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

COC weekend and as far as the weenie can see.

ehhh not so sure about that. 

Both days are going to have some showers around and destructive sunshine with cold pool moving in aloft, especially on Sunday. 

Glad it worked out across NY/PA but damn what a blow. Couldn't even muster one day. 

What a line and reactivity gradient. Holy smokes 

Easy to see where that will track. Hopefully we can get at least some isolated storms tomorrow afternoon 

I find it odd that we can't develop storms tomorrow afternoon. NAM actually swings some decent s/w energy through during peak heating. NAM actually develops QPF between 18z-21z into western sections and then it goes poof.