weatherwiz

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your skinny ass does not have enough meat.

Thank God

When I was walking out to the car this morning a massive owl flew overhead. Took me a second to realize what it was...thought it was a pterodactyl at first and was about to dive in a bush 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Denver is like 65-70 for a week lol. Wow.

Stagnant air too. Air Quality alerts for all the weed smoke hanging at ground level?

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Rhode Island looks bumpy as well

Sure does. in fact, some of the greatest gust potential was on PVD sounding lol. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

9/10 times you can take the under on those clown gusts and be correct.

There is going to be lots of precipitation around which will hold back gusts overall. If we had little precip ahead of the main line and even got some cloud breaks...we would rip pretty good. This could happen locally, probably better shot towards interior eastern Mass. But I also think there is room for thunderstorms embedded within the line moving into far eastern CT, RI, eastern Mass and that will have to be watched.

Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just can't win lately...if there isn't blocking, it cuts...if there is, it shreds or sends it south.

I feel like too we haven't had "classic" blocking...but I think a big part of it too is blocking is much more beneficial for southern streams working up the coast. blocking with northern streams just results in one of two things, which you mentioned, cutting if the s/w is too strong and shredding the s/w or sending south if it is too weak.

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

OT, but interesting.

 

Wow, don’t recall seeing that outside of Cali before 

Weeklies are warm for January?

big month of cold and snow incoming 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday could rip especially in ern areas. You’ll have some daytime heating ahead of rain 

yeah eastern areas def have greatest potential to get temperatures well into the 50's and some stronger wind...perhaps even some convection too

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ice should be fine. lol

I'm sure they will have a top notch cooling system that is going to be cranking (can't even imagine the cost) but I have to think there will be some issues with the ice. 

With this ridge centered over Florida they may be playing the outdoor classic on a pond. It will be a water polo match instead of a hockey match

I would be shocked if there isn't some widespread, high impact winter weather somewhere along the northern tier of the country mid-to-late week. There is no way we go through that without something somewhere 

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol…their lifespan was 30 something.

I bet they enjoyed a good ice storm

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah, Kris Kringle or Jesus weren't even birthed yet.. lol

Santa's been around since the start of time 

Bring on a Christmas Ice Storm. The cave people did Christmas without electricity, we can too.

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My experience says in this winter setup my high is 53

I wonder if we start Friday with some very dense fog 

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Jeez, I've been out of town...but what happened up there?

whoops...that should have just said Long Island...not the sound lol. 

Long Island had a nice little hit from the storm. 

But I guess looking deeper...it will be difficult to prevent temps/dews from climbing into the lower 50's though I am curious to see how far north we can get those. Could struggle to get the warm front to lift much past the Pike. If that sfc low either trends a bit farther southeast or a weak wave develops along the front...the warm sector would get squashed a bit. Probably would see a funny shaped front

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would not be shocked at some thunder reports

the NAM hints at that potential but it has a little pocket of steeper lapse rates and some higher MUCAPE. The NAM I think can often overdo those in these setups but its not unheard of to get some thunder/lightning with these, especially towards the outer Cape/Islands. 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Take a good look at surface temps from Friday on. High barometer and low barometer cold.

I'm also curious as to exactly how high temperatures will climb in the warm sector Friday. You'll have a southerly flow coming off unseasonably cool waters, plus coming off a snow cover on Long Island Sound and then across southern CT. I wonder if it will be more upper 40's versus lower 50's type stuff (not that I guess it matters much). Wind potential probably held back too because I'm sure there would certainly be a stout inversion. Maybe some wind potential if any elevated convection can be generated.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t necessarily disagree with the pope. It’s kind of a meh pattern, but at least not hopeless.

I think sometimes we try too much or hope too hard for that perfect pattern but perfect patterns are tough to come by. I've become a firm believer in that it's not just about the pattern, it's about how the pieces are moving, evolving, and interacting within the pattern.

I would love to pull off one major storm before my next semester starts so I can at least enjoy it alot more. Keep em ripping after that but will be harder to enjoy/dig deep into the forecasting pocket for. I am cautiously optimistic for early January...the pattern may not be entirely supportive for a biggie but it could be active. We also may introduce some southern stream involvement...I don't see the southern stream being active, but if the southern stream can shoot some energy our way and phase up with a northern piece...there's our biggie potential 

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence

This illustrates beautifully. While using OP at this time range isn't particularly great, I do think there is some value in assessing how the OP is handing the overall evolution of the pattern during that time frame. In doing this, you can see there has been a tendency to somewhat compress the heights a bit and there is also some pretty strong vort maxes modeled...these would further help to flatten that flow out a bit. That look on the ensembles screams some sort of storm potential. I think that period through the first week of January is shaping up to be active. 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t see the pessimism…

still a chance for Christmas Eve miracle on AIFS and Euro .. and Euro with a Boxing Day biggie for CNE

Yeah there really is no reason to panic or anything yet. It's already been established the surface may not be totally reflective of what is going on in the mid-levels. What we can gather from that period, however, is that it could be active. How those pieces fall into place...way too early to worry about that. 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

The one thing I think everyone does best though is when there is a legit threat or when an event is ongoing...the discussion is generally pretty great and top notch. the occasional joke posts here and there but everyone puts on their game cap when needed.