weatherwiz

Knew I’d get whacked at home while at Fenway. I’m like the amazing crescent 

Probably get slammed at home while I’m at Fenway 

Standing g outside under the overhang between house and garage. Starting to get tingles all over from electricity. May have to head in

Convection popping overhead 

The lightning from that Sturbridge storm is nuts. It’s like blue 

Getting lightning in all directions here 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dews aren’t the problem .. never below 74 here. We’re losing  forcing and instability. 

Instability is still very high and we’ll maintain the MUCAPE. Forcing is actually increasing a bit with a weak shortwave. I would have to think too this has developed a solid cold pool which should help maintenance of it. We going to get a good light show 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe Springfield 

I think this keeps going pretty well inland. Have to watch dew recovery 

We keeping it going baby 

Kind of no surprised no MCD for a watch extension at least for ALY CWA for Berk/Litchfield 

55 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

maybe the storms ride along the boundary separating MU 60s vs 70+ dews? I'm with ya though def bullish on storms this evening / tonight 

yup going to want to watch that dewpoint/MUCAPE gradient. 

I also have to say...things are evolving a good 3-4 hours earlier then I was anticipating. But this is where we stand with MUCAPE. Activity may come through early enough that the storms remain surfaced-based which could mean an increased risk for damaging wind gusts well into the region. But to go along with Scott's posts about the dewpoints, there is a significant drop off in MLCAPE values away from the coast as drier air mixes down. Have to see when/if they rebound 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Fairfield County 

ahhh there is nothing like the sound of unsticking your shorts from your body. You have to do it very slowly and in a very quiet environment but its a very pleasant and soothing sound for the ears and your spiritual body. 

I think we're going to see a pretty nasty cluster of thunderstorms moving northeast across CT into MA this evening. Should be a quite a bit of lightning with flash flooding as a concern. Not sure if there will be damaging wind potential throughout but I could see a pocket of wind damage into southwestern Hartford County from NJ, southeast NY, and through Fairfield County

1 minute ago, rclab said:

I remember in my younger days we called them the Dog Days of August. I believe the Almanacs called it the Dog days of Summer. As always …..

Could easily grab the data from Iowa State but it felt like you really had to wait until August to get 70F dewpoints...they would happen in June or July but it was a short duration...likely just out ahead of an approaching cold front. 

I also remember back in the late 2000's when I became introduced to weather models and even maybe early 2010's...we'd see the NAM go with dewpoints like 72-73-74 and it would be tossed. The NAM had a tendency to go bonkers with dewpoints. Now you see those dewpoints modeled and there's no tossing lol

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I remember so many of those storms growing up when I was a kid. If not over me, then nearby. Even the 00s were good. I can't find a good scientific explanation, but convection has really been lame since 2015. Although I will say my hood has had a few doozies with wind damage...but I mean from an overall perspective.

You would think with the increasing dews and longevity of higher dewpoints (we'll say 70+) that would yield potential for stronger and more widespread events but that has not been the case. This is more thought so data could prove otherwise, but it also seems like summer cold fronts have a tendency to be weaker (which would make some deal of sense given a warmer Arctic). Just from memory though with the 90's it felt like these periods of excessive dews were much less common and we had to wait until like August to really get them. When we did get those hot and humid days the duration was barely heat wave criteria and it would end with a strong front, a big line of storms and then we would have a stretch of days with 70's to lower 80's and dewpoints in the 50's. We'll probably eventually cycle back but the dataset is so small its hard to say what the return rate for such a stretch is. 

Maybe there is a bit of luck involved too. It seemed like we timed good EMLs with fronts pretty well from the mid-to-late 90's and then went forever without a good EML event. 

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I do have many of these distinct childhood memories of being at baseball games in the early to mid 90s and seeing a wall of cumulonimbus in the distance, as the sun fades under the horizon. A harbinger of actual severe storms. And also being under actual Severe Thunderstorm watches many times during the summer. Barely see anything like that now. 

I'd like to see some stats to justify my childhood memories. 

Its always cool to compare stats versus memory. 

But it does feel like we used to do much better with convection in the 90's then we have for quite some time..and by that I mean these elongated squall lines (or usually multiple) that would be draped from like Maine into the mid-Atlantic. I remember many times during the summer watching the weather channel and following the radar on the Local on the 8's and seeing these squall lines moving from NY/PA into SNE...and more times than not they would fizzle before reaching West Hartford  

But I also remember several times a summer getting really loud overnight thunderstorms and evenings where the sky would just be lit up from distant thunderstorms and it seemed like the lightning would just go on for hours. It seemed like every period of high heat/humidity not only came with thunderstorms but multiple instances and the overnight stuff. 

1990's were the king of the squall lines (and into the early 2000's). 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought the same.  Weak s/w will cause some slight cooling aloft too. I did see some models on and off show convection tonight so it’s possible.

Will be interesting. Like you said last night too, dewpoints will spike back up this evening. Something to also watch because that may boost sfc instability a bit more or even maintain, despite losing the sun. May yield some room to keep convection sfc based and maybe a wind threat continuing into the region. I think its encouraging seeing CAMs continuing with activity tonight, though I wouldn't expect them to handle it very well. 

The HRRR may be a bit too aggressive with weakening that activity tonight. 

One big key I think will be how organized the cluster is as it develops across PA/NJ (does it develop a cold pool to sustain on?) and what we are looking at for MUCAPE. Kind of hard to see an organized cluster weaken if MUCAPE is still pushing 2000+ J

Was doing my last final earlier and happened to look out the window and saw this cutie.

sitting outside watching distance flashes every now and then from the stuff to the northeast 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2500J MLCAPE right now lol. Nothing to show. Don’t know how anyone could care about convection in SNE.

hey they get plenty of days in the Plains with double the MLCAPE and nada because they capped out the fanny 

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What area?

S NH/MA/N CT

Going to be a loud night tomorrow somewhere in this area

There may be a cluster of elevated storms tomorrow night tracking northeast across the region. Would be quite the light show. Then we'll have to see if we can bust out into sun on Saturday but could see widespread storms and maybe even several pockets of wind damage 

I am hoping we can pump 80's and dewpoints into the 70's into November. Can sit outside and watch football and hockey...that would be epic.