weatherwiz

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

BTV has been hinting at high end ratios up here. 

Ratios will def be great up that way...the average should easily be in the 15:1 to 20:1 range up there and probably upwards of 22:1 to 23:1 during peak intensity.

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

To me, the difference between 10-15 and 15-20 is the Monday snow.  It seems like Sunday and Sunday night, particularly 4pm-midnight are a slam dunk very heavy snow period 

If that Monday snow verifies I think someone in northeast MA may pull >24" 

I would not forecast that now but I think there could certainly be some reports. This storm is going to be full of surprises...I can't get over the whole DGZ thing looking around on bufkit lol. I think dendrite mentioned this about the snow ratios and how its difficult to maintain upward of 20:1 - 25:1 but where and when the best lift is occurring...there is going to be a swath verifying those ratios at least for a brief period of time

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Just use a tape measure 

I like the good ole fashion wood 

I could picture the NAM ending up with one of those runs that produces 1.50-1.75"+ of QPF. I really need to get to Lowes and get those yard sticks. Might have time to go Saturday, hopefully they'll have some in stock 

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like 5 posts the last two hours. Storm fatigue setting in lol

Nothing to whine about so people unsure of what to do

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The DGZ is essentially from the sfc to 700mb on Monday so anything low level is gonna be quite efficient. The question is just how much lift can we generate in the low levels. Stronger onshore flow will certainly help as you push that marine boundary layer into the arctic dome…that alone will generate decent low level lift. But that’s why getting a decent secondary staying to our south as long as possible is key. Once it reaches our latitude, winds in the BL will be less and less onshore.  

This is why I can't wait until we get into meso model range. The mesos I think should handle this very well and this is when we can really talk about the potential for >15" totals and where those would be most likely to occur.  

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I felt it was a bit lazy.  CoastawxJr's map had more thought that went into it between giving kids swirlies

Nothing good comes out of doing that. You can raise awareness and prepare the public without having to go off the walls

If we're going to be looking at something along the line of 15-20-24" somewhere that idea won't become more serious until we're inside of 24-36 hours and can start diagnosing banding more accurately and getting a solidified feel on snowfall ratios, lift, etc. 

This is why that map of 1-2' was absolutely stupid this far out. 

That would be a huge hit on the GFS, especially with the 850 low developing just south of the region. I like how the sfc low and 850 low go virtually west-to-east to our south with a bit of elongation to the low...that should help (I would think) result in a much wider than usual fronto band (combined with other factors of course) than usual. This inflow oof

For old times sake can we have the storm mode in bright red at the top of the page? maybe a radio show too

I miss oceanstatewx insights with the NBM and its latest developments. Its not a bad source though I think it still has a quite a bit of room for improvement. I'm actually not entirely sure how it does with snowfall forecasts but I believe it can be a solid source because of its ability to bias correct

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If a tree fell in the woods and no one heard does it mean it didn't fall?     

Ask the chipmunk it squashed 

Only mixing between Sunday and Monday will be Bacardi with coke 

It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013?

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ... nothing's going to happen here  

Just wait until we get the ice storm warnings cranking 

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the kind of trend that's been fatal the past several years BC the airmass has always sucked. Different ballgame now IMHO. We have margin for error.

Given the airmass, the trend could actually be a significant benefit to us, at least on the mesoscale level when it comes time to pinning down banding and what the potential amounts may be

Oh wow look outside and a nice, steady snow falling 

All the details and such can be ironed out as we get closer but there is a ton to be excited and happy about at this time range. There is going to be no shortage of moisture with this and if we can get the final evolution to be very close to what the general consensus is, it's going to be a big hit over a very large area - obviously there will be mesoscale factors at play which result in some getting "screwed" and some "overperforming" but lets keep this signal for a powerhouse of WAA feeding into the airmass that will be in place, and with the thermal profile and temperature gradient (upward) velocities would be great over the entire area

3 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Alot of my weather friends from Stony brook and Albany are heading down to AMS this weekend and they're all hoping for ice there to at least see some winter precip out of this huge storm. Pretty tragic situation for them if its all rain

Went to the AMS in Austin in 2018 and we got stuck in Austin for an extra two days because our flight got cancelled for wintry precip. The whole town of Austin was virtually shut down...not a single car on the road. They legit got like 2 second of sleet haha. Missed the first two days of the spring semester.

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

They issue winter storm watches when a cold win blows down there

I see it now...I looked further ahead to Sunday with I guess if you want to call it the second wave 

Wow I'm shocked to see Winter Storm Watch as far south as Houston (looks like for ice)...I don't see anything indicating they will get icing that far south. I know that far south it takes like 3 drops of frozen liquid but very odd

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

damn. cant remember the last time i saw the dgz all the way in the basement like that, that is crazy. 

Right  

Probably something you'd see in like central Alaska lol 

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That's a deep DGZ lol

This is wild ha

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. 

Ahh this makes sense. I hate how products are limited on weathermodels but my initial thinking was whether the 12z Euro was like occluding things a bit quicker the way it was kind of tapering down the QPF towards the end. 

Any mixing issues would probably be more towards the end of the storm...I don't think mixing would be an issue during the bulk