weatherwiz

31 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

PVA?  I haven't heard that term used in some time.  Back in the day, it was DA BOMB in wx talk!  Not saying it is not important, but just looking at how the lingo has evolved.  Now it seems we use UVV, frontogenesis, deformation, and WAA/CAA more for the S+ weenie terms!

All the snow weenies care about are 10:1 and Kuchera  

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Models either missed this 300 mb shit streak or it was just not noticed but it's been completely slam shut ceilings here right during the big warming hours of the day, so ...yet again, 2026 finding the coldest way to weasel bust

Signs were there for this I think. PVA streaming from the north and still pretty cold at 500

2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I have a question that someone relates to the June topic. I just posted in the winter form for this upcoming winter as well. 

I saw a few different posts now from different people saying they're expecting a Modoki El nino for the upcoming summer and winter. From what I'm reading, that gives us a completely opposite effect of a typical super El Nino. Meaning, not as hot of a summer, not as suppressed when it comes to hurricanes, and a colder stormy year pattern for the winter. Figured more people are in this current June discussion topic than they are right now in the winter discussion ( that's been crickets, as it should be )

At least right now, nothing screams the developing EL Nino is a modoki, if anything it looks like we would be looking at a mixed or basin wide event given the strong anomalies in the (hostile) 1.2 region and Nino 4 region. Now, what would happen towards the end of the EL Nino event is a transition to a modoki EL Nino, which isn't uncommon for a weakening stronger EL Nino as region 1.2 tends to be the first to cool. 

In terms of impacts on the continental U.S. summer, Tip and I had some dialogue on this a few weeks back but I don't think there is much of a correlation and there are drivers. EL Nino's tend to not become fully established until late summer or even early Fall. An argument can be made that while the PAC is in the transitioning mode and this may have a quick and direct impact on the Hadley Cell but there atmospheric response can be quite often lagged to how the ocean is evolving and there are other factors to consider. 

Also, if we're just focusing on the impacts on summer to stronger EL Nino events, the sample size really isn't that great and at this point a strong event isn't even guaranteed. While the data may indicate that, we still need to get there first. 

IMO, I think some of the late winter/early spring responses within the Arctic and stratosphere held so much weight on the northern hemisphere pattern that we're still dealing with those impacts. 

Weekend is going to be all about the warm front. I would not be surprised if guidance is a bit too hung up with the warm front and at least southern areas end up in the warm sector. But not a good sign when you see the sfc low weaken as it crosses the Great Lakes region. That's a good way to stall the warm front or transition it to a stationary front and we never truly warm sector and end up cool with clouds/showers. Uncertainty high for sure weekend and early next week...potential is there to get quite warm but need things to work out

Did anyone hear the boom? I did not

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Well you feel that way when the temp drops below 70…so we know how you roll. 

This is true  

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Shorts or pants today?

Just came back from Dunkin. Debated on pulling out the winter hat before I left. 

Quite breezy out there. Going to be an interesting over the next 3-5 hours out east when the LLJ maximizes with 2-6km lapse rates as steep as they are

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Some of the modeling has 35-40mph gusts down there in ORH county. But this is obviously anomalous and dynamic for this time of year. It does give me 2013 sensible wx vibes for NNE though…albeit a different evolution. 

llvl lapse rates may be steep enough to support gusts 35-40 mph inland. Also, the lack of rain farther inland and even potential for some cloud breaks may allow better than expected mixing (evident by the steep llvl lapse rates)

At least on Monday we should get some cold pool small hailers 

The second half of June has potential to be hot and humid and more consistent heat/humidity too 

Time to drop by and share a few of these 

Just pick me up, turn me upside down, stick my head in the toilet, and repeatedly flush...don't stop flushing 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nbm concurs

Ginxweather.com 

 

 

Impressive because the NBM tends to underdo wind gusts, though that may have been corrected some with v5

although maybe some cold pool storms early next week 

Can't believe its looking like another dud for the first two weeks of June for my friend and I. We had done the final week of May and first week of June from like 2009 until like 2019 then didn't get together the covid year and then bumped to the first two weeks of June. We used to have pretty solid success until recently which is why we moved back a week. Well at least during my second week of vacation is when summer classes start so I guess I can use that to try and work ahead

3 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

83/58

just about perfect
 

 

The word perfect should reserved for days when it is 98/76 and overnight temperatures hover 73-77. That is perfection. 

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't seem all that wet next weekend per the P&C...

This weekend is likely more just showers versus a widespread steadier rain. There will probably be a narrow axis, however, where there is some steadier/heavier rain but that will likely be confined to somewhere in NNE. 

24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

But drought!!!

What a recovery…total 180 from the morning. Pretty awesome outside 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well

your first mistake is saying that my area is SW CT…anybody who knows my area knows this is not even close to SW CT.  SW of you For sure…but not SW CT.  WOR Central CT is the accurate location. It was raining everywhere west of the river by Saturday morning. So your call was way off in that regard. East and Northeast areas, where you are managed to stay dry. But for the majority of CT it was a wet Saturday.  

Southington is def not SW CT  

I wouldn't even consider Waterbury as being in SW CT...probably more so getting towards Southbury

Heat kicked on this morning  

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

When his kid gets older and especially if he has another one, he will embrace the NYC sweathog in him. 

Don’t speak that into existence 

In Enfield at my nieces for a cookout. Absolutely awful out. Wish when ours have held onto the weather we had in the morning. Wasn’t great but better than this 

If it’s raining where you are, GWDLT. Actually not bad here if you throw on a light sweatshirt