weatherwiz

30 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

RRFS, Nam‘s replacement, looking ok for a 2-4 incher over CT and maybe even a little bit more for far SE Mass. I’ll take.

That model needs a lot of work 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Being on the nrn edge potentially introduces fronto fun so I’m not ruling it out, but man I can’t help thinking we may see some ticks southeast. I don’t see how it can improve from some mid those 12z solutions. 

My stance is by 12z runs tomorrow any guidance that was ticking more “favorable” will revert back leaving an outcome of just some snow showers. Maybe someone gets a coating 

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Me and Tequila Barry there around then as well. I heard Ray is using his boys Red Rider wagon to haul in his blog for us to read.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm going to miss Tequila Barry  

Send him my best 

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning. 

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will has it. Dec is actually a very prolific month and up there on highest monthly average. 

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will has it

I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is).  

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Dec snows last 100 plus years in Hartford  50/50 shot of big snows. 

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas 

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Man that 95-96 archive is sweet to look at.  What a year.  

I was just looking at that  

This is phenomenal work. Incredible job to all involved in this.

most exciting weather upcoming will be the landslides in the PAC NW next week 

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Makes perfect sense since they both ended up in the Mid-Atlantic!

This deserves post of the year

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

JMA must have a blizzard by now, May have to pull the herpes model out of mothballs as well, 

nahhh otherwise Metfan would have spammed us with 8000 images from the JMA by now

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

A Two week prog.  Really? 

How bout 726 hr

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Oh, so now you’re a rip and reader, and crushing everybody’s morning. What has happened to you Paul. 

I retired from drinking 40's of Steel Reserve 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On which model? There’s like 10 different variations of what I’ve seen for that period. 

I was just rip and reading the GFS lol. 

But I just happened to look at the Euro...what a difference. 

anyways I am with you, I think the extent of the ridging we've been seeing will end up getting muted (though we probably still end up on the milder side). 

Gotta say...for that Christmas period, it is getting a bit more difficult to find any potential to wedge at the surface. The position of the sfc low would favor deep southwesterly flow across the eastern third of the country. Doesn't look like there is any room for a high to our north or northeast.

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

For now we have spam, and they(pretty much everybody else around us)have prime rib…oh ya, I feel alot better now.  

 

All kidding aside, just hoping for a low end advisory event….to boost the morale some. 

Right...2-4" does so much to the morale. The 4" I got last week was perfect. It really sucks things haven't worked out as well in this pattern. You get 3-4 events which produce even 2-4" and they just add up quick. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Thanks for making us feel better Paul…appreciate it. 

Well I guess if there is any consolation, it goes to show what we could have if we can get one of these to work out  

Speaking of fluff factor, there's going to be some awesome ratios within the Ohio Valley tonight. Might see upwards of 20:1!!!

58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing is still 3.5 days out …you don’t think there’s enough time to trend this a 100 miles? Geez Paul, I think we all know that’s very doable at this juncture for sure. But maybe you’ll be right? Gonna be a fun couple days seeing how this turns out. 

IMO, there's alot more that needs to happen than just trending west but I am also not necessarily sold on some of the recent trends we have seen with the ridging and better interaction of the two energies...we've seen this happen plenty of times of late where within this time range (3-5 days) there are these subtle shifts which trend better. I suspect by 12z Friday we will begin to see a trend back in the opposite direction with the heights in the west and energy interaction. 

Also, even with the better interaction of energies, the upper level dynamics still aren't very favorable for low pressure development at the sfc...we have to look closer to where the baroclinic zone is present to get some llvl spinup present and I think its just too far south to do any good for us. But that said, at least snow showers are still possible farther east. 

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Idk about several hundred miles lol we are talking about snow in New England not Hudson Bay

probably more so a few hundred miles but we always play the "what if" game with these things  

A heck of alot more needs to happen than just tweaking the interaction between the two energies 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve been unwavering in thinking this is a measurable event for most of SNE.

Would be nice and I hope that happens but all of these "nice trends" are going to have to happen upwards of several hundred miles farther west. Not very likely to get that at this stage

start digging the trough farther west towards Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois then maybe there is a chance. Otherwise the most favored spot for sfc low development is still way too south to give us anything outside of some snow showers.

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Way to be TBlizz.  Then Goose and Wiz crush hopes with it ain’t happening.  Here’s to hoping they are both wrong. 

Correct

Put me on record as to saying this is a nada for everyone but maybe enough to get some stray snow showers, particularly east

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Big ice?

It's a race between when we get our next region wide crippling ice storm and a cat 3 hurricane