weatherwiz

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think you're reading into it way too much. Someone I listen to that am really liking a lot with a weather page as mentioned several times now about disruption in the polar vortex. He's been on this thing for the last month and it looks like it's happening. It'd be the first time this has happened in decades in The month of November.

Correct, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything for us. This could just as easily benefit Europe. But something to watch for sure 

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When this pops Dec rocks

Let's hope 

Just now, dendrite said:

Not as strong as yesterday…G2/G3. Clouds are a problem again too.

yeah satellite looks awful (though I guess there may be some thinning/decrease). Probably be similar to last night in the cloud category. Figures this one would be weaker. Oh well...can go to bed early 

looks like storm arrived 1915z

I really hope something changes moving through December. But I hope this really isn't another year of major wave breaking along the West Coast that pumps up a massive ridge across the eastern third of the country and we just see cutting/weakening storms as the approaching trough lifts out then we get several days of cold/dry on the backside of the systems and just rinse and repeat as the next wave break occurs and the next ridge builds. 

I think a month or two ago I made some comments that I didn't think ENSO will be a big player in the overall regime but kind of looking ahead...I actually wonder if (regardless of what ENSO indices show) the hemispheric pattern this winter may be reflective of what you would see in a stronger Nina event. 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

expanding this ( humorously ) further ... a lot of seasonal forecasters using ENSO in sale and promotion pitches lending to d-drip readers purchasing, and costing them "a lot of emotional money", too.  LOL

IMO, the expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (which Ray did a great discussion on within his winter outlook, which I will hopefully finish reading today or tomorrow and comment on) in recent decades probably elicits far more weight on the global regime versus ENSO (maybe even a stronger ENSO event) given the expansion of 29-30C SSTs which is going to contribute to a great deal of convection and latent heat release...oh and add in the regime of the WHWP. 

Last October was epic, no? I remember running outside because a friend of mine sent me a picture his mom took in West Hartford...I was watching a Bruins game and missed a goal. Pretty sure that was October last year.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Adding to the bold ... RONI studies, which are hugely necessary and thank god imho, there has to be revamp in correlations - or evolution .. maybe not complete overhaul. 

I remember writing posts suggesting something like a RONI was needed, jesus .. 15 years ago?  In the end days of Eastern, that the ENSO cannot mean the same thing when the Hadely Cell is expanded.  Most spurned the notion ... typical. 

There may have, and probably was, already research going on about the HC expansion ... but I hypothesized that on my own decades ago.  It started in 1998 for me actually, at the tail end of the super nova El Nino ...when I noticed ( and came up with the "Miami Rule" ) that the heights over the Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic were failing to recede as far in the winters.   It's subtle... like 3 to 5 measly hgh contours goes under the radar.  But, that means the flow is compressing whenever troughs press east across the continent.  That compression means higher geostrophic base wind velocity and guess what ...that's been verified(ing) ever since.  And it's gotten worse.  This is not merely ENSO...as it is observed regardless of cool and warm phases.

There was a paper I read a few years ago about the use of the RONI and how it is a better indicator of the true state versus the traditional ONI. There were multiple examples used, but there was one that looked at the 2015/2016 event, which per ONI was super strong. Based on forecasts and guidance for a super strong EL Nino certain measures were taken (I want to say it was western Africa) in preparations for impacts to precipitation, etc and ultimately took too aggressive measures and it cost some industries alot of money. But per the RONI, the event was not nearly as strong and their weather for the winter season was more reflective of that of a moderate event. Essentially, the study indicated if they used the RONI they wouldn't have taken as aggressive measures. 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah,... i didn't wanna get into that in the longer diatribe about the pacific i composed and hour ago ( seeing as everyone's gonna read it  -) but these NAOs ... i just really hate them.

it's always been a voodoo index, based upon earlier research in the middle part of last century...then fell asleep at the meteorological wheel for a couple of decades, only to come roaring back in the heady heydays of TWC showcasing.  then, few actually understood it but it sure sounding like some amazing thing  "north atlantic oscillation ation ation ation"   zomb! 

in reality, few understood(stand) it.  there is only a narrow spatial and spatial-temporal ( both have to be right) when and where that index means what the popularity was led to believe it means.  and it is different for each, D.C.,  Boston, and Caribou.  it's a moving parts access.  it's like a train rolling by and you got one chance to leap on board, or you bounce of the side and probably break a leg - in this, your heart.  

it's tedious to explain for a twitter'ed down "focus" group audience ... so forget it.  but the primary storm and cold ( both ) loading pattern has always been the delta(pna) modal states - which it should... forcing on earth is not actually e-->w... it's w-->e.  all naos are, are indicators (only) that a given storm and/or cold might get positive or negative interference.

what you're saying above?  that modulation in this case is a basically telling us that there is background neg interference.

sorry just venting

Well stated, and I completely agree with the bolded as that can translate with respect to ENSO as well. I think alot of thinking and ideas out there when it comes to ENSO and impact to global regime are based off ideas from like the 1980's through early 2000's. Our wealth of knowledge, data, and event have grown substantially. In fact, I even think ENSO state may be overplayed, particularly if it is a weaker or even a moderate event (depending on how coupled). I think one issue here is we are too married to the CPC definition of ENSO...there are something like 50 published definitions on ENSO. There is more to it too then just what the SSTAs are. 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Like I said…NAO overrated more times than  not lately for us.  

Agreed, it gets overstated way too much, especially wen it comes to worrying which phase the NAO is in. I get that a -NAO has a higher correlation to cold/snow versus a +NAO, but it's not a significantly higher correlation. What's most important is the structure of the NAO, placement of the pressure anomalies, and how the NAO is transitioning. I believe there is a much stronger correlation to snowfall with respect to a transitioning NAO versus a static state NAO

Am I the only spot in the region that has clouds??? This is BS

have a few flakes falling  

first of the season unless I missed any last night. 

Getting some graupel mixing in here but was short lived 

16 minutes ago, cut said:

Bruins are surprising. I am Rangers - what a weird team they are .... Best road record and worst home record (I think they've scored a whopping ONE GOAL at home all season!!! WTF?????)

I think they've been shut out 4 times at home so far? That's nuts. Lots of internal turmoil within the organization...but they may have to do a bit of re-tooling themselves. They have some young talent in Hartford, but not many who are probably ready to step in and be a big contributor right away. They going to waste Igor 

Went outside for two seconds about an hour ago, lovely day. Working on some school work, going to take the dog on a walk, and then drink a few IPAs and watch the Bruins hopefully crush the Leafs 

A big problem is, and I guess this comes from whatever was said in the 70's or 80's, but climate change and global warming does not mean there won't be any more cold or won't be any more snow in places where these two phenomena are part of the climate. The Earth goes through cycles of warming and cooling, we all know this, this isn't a secret.

Since the last ice age, the Earth has been on the warming part of the cycle. The issue here is, since the Industrial Revolution, the vast increase in concentrations of CO2 have led to the Earth warming at an alarming rate, much more so than what should be occurring naturally. The greatest extent of this is being felt at both poles and why is this a bad thing? Well the Earth's energy budge consists of a net deficit at the higher latitudes and a net surplus at the equator. So, for the Earth's energy budget to be close to in balance, this surplus of energy is transported to higher latitudes via oceanic and atmospheric currents. But this balance has been disrupted, and because of the advanced warming in the polar regions, the delta in this net deficit is being reduced. This has an impact on the natural currents (such as Hadley Cell).

A warmer atmosphere holds more water, CO2 and H20 are two of the biggest heat trapping gasses , especially H20. This is an easy experience to conduct, and I mean take a look at Venus. Venus is immensely hotter than Mercury, despite Mercury being closer to the sun. Why is that. We see this clearly in our region during the summer, when everyone is talking about being way above average but that being driven by warm overnight temperatures? Why is this, well CO2 and H20 are also extremely efficient at absorbing longwave radiation (which is emitted by the Earth's surface at night) but they are not efficient at absorbing shortwave radiation (emitted by the sun). 

But significantly altering concentrations of CO2 (which we all know exists naturally), H20, and other gasses in the upper atmosphere will also impact production of ozone and can disrupt the structure of the upper atmosphere.

We go through cycles of terrible winters and snowfall and fantastic winters for snowfall...that is not going to change, however, the frequency and and rate of returns will be altered and we will increase the occurrence of mild patterns and the duration of those patterns. 

maybe some thunder for the south coast late tomorrow night? 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The low simply trended weaker. Shortwave not as potent and rapid low development did not take place. 

Just went back and looked and noticed the models backed off on the narrow jet streak of 130+ knots it had developing around the base of the trough. Looked through at 0z models last night and yeah that shortwave was vastly different than what was modeled just a few days ago. 

I also wish this would have busted with the LLJ that was advertised a few days ago versus busting because the LLJ just didn't pan out. If we got the 50-60 knot LLJ, I wonder if last night would have performed or not. 

I find these setups to be interesting, whether its 35-45 mph gusts or something that has potential for 50-60 mph. Over the years we've had plenty of times where wind advisories (this includes high wind) were issued and nothing happened, and times it's like "where the heck is the wind advisories". 

I am also wondering if the showers helped to develop or enhance a subtle inversion above the surface which maybe knocked off like 10 mph of gust potential? Was looking at some 6z NAM bufkit soundings and there are some subtle inversions just above the sfc.

Looks like the core of gusts last night was basically between 11 PM-2 AM just looking around at some obs which falls in line what guidance started to indicate but pretty crazy the decrease in LLJ intensity in the course of two days. 

56 mph gust at BGM and 54 at AVP. Also 66 mph at HTS…best west southwest just like summer 

Edit: HGR, not HTS

Nice line went through northeast PA. See if that can hold through Fairfield county 

Gusts cranking for sure out there

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, their blizzards in the Midwest are 3-5” with 60-70 mph winds. I’ll take our 18-24” ones with 35-50 mph winds any day.   We do better than the mid west most times. Inter mountain west is a different animal. 

I would LOVE to experience a Great Plains blizzard some day. That has to be some wild stuff...that and a major LES event. 

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Again, we do winter pretty well…but we’ve been in a slump. But that will change. We had high end event, after high end event for quite a long time in the winter for a long stretch…we were due for a big slump. And we’ve had it. So now I think we’ll start to recover. 

Compared to the South, sure we do winter well but just speaking in terms of an average winter, we are nothing special versus the interior West, northern Plains, upper-Midwest. Outside of higher elevations and northern New England (because of latitude) our average winter isn't wild...what around 30" towards the coast (probably even a bit less) and upwards of 35-50" across the interior? 

What is the most common snow storm for the region...3-6" 4-8"? That's probably not much different than these other areas and those other areas...get true blizzards. 

There's no doubt winter storms trump other weather phenomena here, but they are still relatively meh compared to other regions of the country. But this is just looking at severity of weather elements. If we want to talk societal impact that's a different argument.