weatherwiz

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

2012 is not coming through that door. We were already through mud season when that occurred. 

gotta pin the May 1st thread, getting awfully hard to find it every morning to update the countdown 

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Especially with the timing...at least for most of CT. Was there even a special weather statement?

I believe there was a special weather statement 

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What is the temp there?

 

33

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

Uh... @weatherwiz??

https://6abc.com/post/pennsylvania-man-set-fires-kill-spiders-igniting-blaze-damaged-homes-police/18646148/ 

can't blame him 

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How much snow fell?

I got just over 1.5"

What fell this morning essentially has melted already with additional melting. Good...get the streets all clear

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we get one more in March. Maybe mid month or beyond?

I wouldn't mind going out with a bang. But if we're getting something around or just after mid-month it better be a big one. 

Just now, NoCORH4L said:

Or at least a SWS, don't think we had anything. 

I think there may have been a SWS but we've had WWA issued for 37F and some specs of freezing drizzle that only freeze onto car tops and garbage bins

I'm fine with continuing with some winter storm threats until about March 15 but on or around then I'm going to be itching for warmer weather. Obviously I know how springs go around here...could be 70F one day and 38F with drizzle the next but you just take what you can until June or so. 

I was thinking to myself yesterday, I was shocked there weren't WWA issued

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We still watching .. with a bit of a perk 

There doesn't seem to be anything that could really support that solution. 

Funny how the 12z GFS continues to be north  

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There has to be an initialization issue right? Even the 3k completely lost it at 12.

It's a huge weakness of the NAM where it can often struggle at initializing precipitation 

12z 3km picked up a little more on the evening squall potential 

Just a bit over 1.5" here so right about what I expected 

Right on the back edge of this now (although some lighter echoes still west). Will go measure once this exists shortly. Going to say maybe 2" looking outside at the table. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s up with the hrrr late night squalls lol

Been very consistent with it. the 3km has shown it a bit but no where near as impressive as the HRRR. Models though do hint at a bit of instability with some steepening lapse rates moving through during the evening though. Some pretty strong elongated shortwave energy right across the region. HRRR probably too aggressive though 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def feels like an over performer here looking at radar. Steady light snow but picking up quick. Temp wetbulbing down to 16F. 
 

Was kind of skeptical of this one but seems like we got enough southerly flow juicing this a bit into the low level cold dome. 

Some of the latest HRRR soundings, particularly across southern CT are pretty impressive...some really good lift just punching into the base of the DGZ

When did they start introducing 3 hour delays? It was always usually either 60 min, 90 min, or maybe 2 hours but I don't ever recall 3. 

The HRRR is been horrible but its been very consistent with some hefty squalls this evening

Nice steady snow here!

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Is weatherwiz "mad" he only got, what, 10" total????    

There was no way to measure but I am figuring probably 6" or so. There were some totals around here that were a bit more than that. I thought I would get around a foot here (maybe closer to 18" if the banding worked right). I expected to get screwed but not this much. One of the biggest killers (outside of being in between bands) was the snow ratios absolutely sucked. Lift was definitely above the DGZ (which was also shown well on bufkit for this area). 

I'm honestly more mad CT wasn't widespread 18-24" than I am missing out  

10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I'm going to record six inches. Anything more than that I think is suspicious.

I would 1000% agree with that

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.

Fatigue and time constraints absolutely play a role. It's why I'm not particularly active anymore blogging unless there is a big event. I have to do forecasts for all over the country and when its crazy I am so exhausted I don't have the time or energy to put the focus and detail I would like into the maps/blogs I post...it kind of sucks. This is why I am going to transition to doing videos instead. I suck with technology but I'm slowly getting there. 

I went to bed around 7:30 Sunday night and woke up just before 3:00. One look outside and I knew I was totally screwed but I'll say, it did bring me joy and some sense of peace reading the accounts from others who got into the goods. 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it.

I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.

Absolutely. 

As I stated above, I'm a bit frustrated because the signs and signals where there and present, but not sure why I avoided them. Ultimately, I think I did too much to talk myself out of why I didn't think it would happen instead of taking as a flag. I might have let some of the latest QPF jumps (Friday) get to me and I don't know why because QPF totals are actually the very last thing I really look it. 

When I was looking at hose fronto maps from FSU and going nuts...I kept telling myself its weird how quick it is with the front and how it evolved it to depict the two bands but didn't want to believe it I guess.