weatherwiz

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No doubt it’s a great looking set up…at least as it currently stands, but we all know these little things change as the said timeframe approaches, and that’s where the uncertainty lies.  Hopefully they change slightly in our favor. 

Agreed, my guess is we see changes in our favor. 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That ridge out west(with its apex over the chimney of Idaho) in that depiction is in a perfect spot…we like to see that.  Hopefully it can get up here, and not slip OTS.  

There isn't much I really see, at least on the large-scale, that indicates this would go out to sea. Now, that doesn't mean this can't end up tracking far enough away that it only grazes the coast but I don't see a totally OTS solution here. I like the building -NAO too, particularly west based. I guess ultimately it would be best to get the 500 energy to dig slightly more west into Alabama but not a big issue at this stage

Keep in mind the struggle the models have with the shallow nature of Arctic airmasses. Where the GFS and even Euro are developing the sfc low off the Carolina coast...probably shift that 50-75 miles farther northwest along the with whole storm track. I think this one has a great chance of passing right over the benchmark. The only thing I don't want to see is this bomb to something into the 980's or lower. 

I still think this comes farther northwest. 

The 0z Euro was add to with the H5 vort. I don't think this vort is real...might be associated with convection and it seems the Euro then shifts the focus of evolution to this vort and results in south and east. 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

24h QPF on ensembles....the total would actually be a bit more though since the timing isn't the same on all the members

 

That is a damn impressive signal this far out. I bet if this was inside 48 hours we would be seeing widespread 2"+ QPF...the inflow flux off the Atlantic in this would probably be even greater than this past weekend and the large-scale VVs would probably be much greater as we'd be developing closed mlvl circulations 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I was agreeing with  you ... I rewrote that 

"I personally would, too"  poorly written.  ha

gotcha...I was very confused for a second haha. 

yeah I'll do without a sub 970 low please...hell I'll do without sub 980

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm I personally wouldn't

I don't think it's handling the position(s) is/are very supported by the basics of wave geometric constraints in having the +PNA ridge longitude that far W.  

For this model ..?  I'd be lean on the fact that it has a system at all - it'll be the last guidance to come NW typically in N/stream phasing

I'm confused with this. 

Are you saying you think the GFS will eventually come more NW? If so, that's what I was referring to 

Getting a nice, steady light snow shower

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Was with Fern

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Going to go with what my professor talked about with this past storm and how the GFS tends to be too far south and east with developing low pressures with Arctic boundaries around. GFS tends to develop them more towards the warmer side of the boundary (or a bit south and east of the boundary) when the reality is they tend to develop right along the Arctic boundary. Models can struggle with Arctic boundaries because the depth of the Arctic cold is on the shallower side

I would lean towards the 12z GFS being too far south and east 

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

What's our storm total from this? I'll go with what you have. Way too many trees and houses here plus blowing and drifting to get an accurate read and they still have not plowed.  Must be close to 18 with the old snow for total depth?

It was really difficult to get a final measurement because once the winds picked up the snow began blowing around. When I measured around 7:30 (had 11.5") and went back out before bed around 9:30, there was minimal additional accumulation and that's during the period when the winds started picking up. But judging by how it continued to snow through I went to bed I have to say the total was about 13-14". Depth is probably very close to 18".

The end of the driveway probably has 3-4 feet of snow. I almost don't even want it touched, it's like a Van Gogh painting; master artwork. You just want to stare at it, and admire it and think dirty thoughts 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But it was EFFICIENT for sure. We take that anytime. 

Oh absolutely. 

Just pointing it out more for the science behind the scenes aspect. So this isn't anything to knock down or play down the storm or intensities ordeal but it just goes to show how extremely difficult it is to get a storm where you have a consistent ratio. Now, at the end of the day, total wise it may not truly matter (except when talking about very high end stuff)...so it was a factor in why we didn't see widespread 20-30" type stuff but for those forecasting it's something that really needs to be given thought when making a forecast. 

We all won on this one  

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, surface temps != ratios. I remember a few years ago those kuchera maps gave me 10-12 in a WAA event, I ended up with around 7 and was disappointed. I like the approach old school mets like Bernie Rayno use. He uses models as tools to help make forecasts, but his #1 tool is the depth of knowledge and experience he has as a meteorologist who has been doing it for decades. I recall him mentioning in a video a week ago he believed the storm would take more of a northern track due to the overall setup and his previous experience as a meteorologist who has seen this setup before. 

I was watching some map discussion video lectures from my professor last night which he posted Thursday and Friday doing model analysis. In his discussion from Thursday he talked about several things which hinted that not only the storm would take on a more northerly track but why the GFS initially was a bit far south and east than some of the other guidance was at the time. He pointed things out in model guidance Thursday and gave his opinion on how he thought the storm would unfold and he was pretty spot on. 

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea the snow growth went up and down by the minute, very strange. Also by far the coldest storm ive ever witnessed. 6-7F the whole time during the day

I am not shocked about this really. Using the obb method on bufkit you could see the snow ratio line looking like that of a seismograph when there's an Earthquake lol. On any profile, there never really was a good consistent duration where snow ratio was constant...it was very jumpy. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We did exactly what we needed to do in making this period work. More on the way. Deep deep winter is here. 

Bring it on...let's let the remainder of winter go out with a bang. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Two weeks ago winter was cancelled because the "lack of snow cover". My oh my how things can change. Only takes one storm to switch the tune

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just so widespread in terms of 12"+ except maybe extreme NNE ?

Just such a massive area, well into NY/NJ/PA. Imagine if we could get one or two of these every winter  

What a day, what a night. This is beautiful and everyone won 

Definitely drifting going on out there. Anywhere from about 12-12.5" 

Went 10-15" so well within that range. Maybe even tack on another inch or two. Headed to bed...curious to see what it compacts down to when I check around 5:30

forgot to clear my table off...got side tracked  

Oh well. Have to head to bed soon but probably do one final measurement. It's gotten pretty breezy here so snow is definitely drifting. I am actually wondering if I cleared, would I even get an accurate accumulation with the way the snow is blowing.

Oh well...it is what it is

I can't even remember the guidelines anymore...I feel like this is the first snow event in forever where it's accumulated for something longer than 4 hours lol

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are you clearing every 3hrs?

That I didn't do. I was going to do 6 (which is now). 

Measurement #3

7:30 PM: 11.5" !!!!!

1:30 PM measurement: 4.8"

4:30 PM measurement: 8.8"