weatherwiz

You get enough MLCAPE or 3km CAPE in this and you could be looking at the potential for a stronger tornado 

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I doubt the valley is going to clear out. The breaks in the clouds in ENY do not really seem to be advancing east.

 

 

 

The valley probably does but that is going to be the product of mid-level air advecting in which is also going to negatively impact potential for thunderstorm development down this way as well. However, its been noteworthy that the CAMs have become more aggressive and have remained consistent with developing convection, even down into CT later this afternoon. We'll see...too much mid-level dry air can really screw things...not too mention its rather warm aloft too

That line is looking pretty good with some very noteworthy rotation. Erode the MLCIN out ahead of it and boost up those values and this may be an interesting afternoon in NNE. Looks good for some clearing out ahead of the line too 

We'll see what can happen south of Rt. 2 and especially getting towards the Pike and farther south...mid-level dry air going to be a big concern and tough to overcome. With this said, that would keep anything that develops more isolated so if something pops and can get a robust enough updraft, it will have an environment all to its self. Will be tough this...instability won't be sufficient I don't think

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is that from that faux tropical storm?

yes

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah last 15 years of convective ennui has made me numb. 
 

That said, rt 2 north has a decent chance late day. 

There is a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates in NY advecting northeast. This may weaken but something to watch to lead to some instability enhancement for eastern NY into VT/NH

Quite the storm down in Louisiana. 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like a classic pike north severe event . I’d head to ORH if I were you 

Unfortunately unable to chase tomorrow.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hodos are long and curved. Kevin approved. 

mesos are definitely becoming a bit more intriguing with tomorrow

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Storms in the corn belt seem to be busting.

This is just round 1. Round two is going to ignite within this area and we'll see a line of supercells quickly fire up in the next 2-4 hours. Big instability building within this area and will build downstream as the clouds break and temps skyrocket with steepening lapse rates

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

IL/IN severe cancel due to morning MCS?

I don't think so. The idea of multiple rounds has been modeled quite well with this round expected to be quite intense as well. This will certainly impact things on a mesoscale level and may result in some shifts in best potential for later as this could influence how far north the warm front gets. 

But you can see it will (well already kind of is) rapidly intensity from east-central Missouri into south-central Illinois and that air will lift north as the warm front does. If anything, this MCS may lead to further enhancement for some localized strong/violent tornado potential with residual outflow boundaries and enhanced local vorticity

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Same with 3K NAM. Get me to 80+ and maybe we see something.

Definitely going to need those temps and even if we can push the dews into the lower 70's. LFC looks pretty high tomorrow so definitely going to need extra support 

12z HRRR a bit more intrigued with tomorrow 

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. this is what I was suggesting to you yesterday ... there's a warm boundary that the Euro and GFS are less coherently defining.  The NAM on the other hand is kinking the PP enough to suggest a triple point goes underneath Logan. 

I have seen both scenarios verify in situations like this.  I am not presently seeing anything that argues for either. About split.

I don't think there has been a situation ever involving a nearby boundary and GFS based products or NBM based products actually throw out numbers suggestive of not warm sectoring. This is going to be a big problem when its basically just NBM for a text based product 

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

But that's how you get an EML!

But at least when the cap breaks you are rapidly transporting moisture into the troposphere!

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is decent in CNE and NNE but looks like that’s due to better forcing despite being wedged. Looks like warm capped hangover breathe here as usual. 

drier air aloft also looks to be an issue down this way 

MAV 76 for BOS tomorrow

MET 66 (and thats the evening)

NBM 81

must be a front or something nearby tomorrow  

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

But the CAPE is too low!  "Only" 1291!  Lapse rates not high by Midwest standards.  So it works there but not here?  

I wonder if we see a small high risk on the new D1. That is a wild environment that will be evolving today. That is a very elongated line of supercells which develop ahead of the cold front later and not to mention supercells which develop along and ride parallel to the front and will be ingesting destabilizing air from the south. 

Forget the stupid hazard type. But holy hell WTF

A sounding from eastern Illinois from the 18z NAM...a bit of a cap around 700mb but this is an extremely scary profile. You put a mature supercell into this environment and there is absolute concern for a long tracked tornado

Screwed up earlier...I think I said uncapped Thursday but in fact, we may end up capped given how warm it is aloft. Best chance for anything during the afternoon may be the northern Hudson Valley actually into NNE where the forcing will be stronger and mlvl temps a bit cooler 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...it sounds sorta like you're idealizing against a Plains profile in the back of your mind.  Not trying to tell you what you're thinking- just seems that way...  If so, no.  We don't do that around here - not very often anyway.  

EOF 1 and 2 swarms. 

In 1954, we set up 4,000 foot tall stove pipe finger of god and sent it drillin' for oil down near Worcester...  In 2010...sort of hybrid of that in Monson.  Otherwise,  that's apples to oranges for low LCL events.  High shear/helicity profiles spin even meager updraft motion, lower in the troposphere.   

Which ... not all the models concur on that profile, admittedly - some have the warm front clearing house (NAM).  However,  I'm also using an a-priori in knowledge/experience.  Warm boundaries don't just waltz on thru like the models are doing Thursday morning. 

So I could be wrong there.  If the warm front, incongruent to our climate as it may be, effortlessly and without resistence ... sails on past by 15z, we'll see the blue tinted hill side under blazing sun-wasted torrid miasma of 76F DPs because of weak sauce lapse rates and insufficient triggers.  

But there is one other option...hm.   You know, I'm not sure this is an analog - probably not at discrete analysis... but it does remind me of June 1987 ..I think it was around the 10th or 15th.. A morning warm front with elevated convection actually become severe and send warned cells through midriff ORH county ... and it passed off by noon.  With a warm front.  By 1:30...full sun soar of T/TD ... 86/73.   An explosion of thunderstorms erupted up the Mohawk Trail  W of ALB, and as it came ESE ... it evolved into a small Derecho ( probably would have been a big one if it didn't move out over the ocean later that evening...).   I came down Rt2 with routine gusts to 70mph, quarter sized hail, and a lot of power outages during the evening.   

 

You're correct in that thinking and I am idealizing it that way. Adding perspective to this thinking though, the reason why I am idealizing it that way is because it works. But you're 100% correct, we don't do that around here, or extremely rarely. 

But it isn't proper or really correct to try and compare our environments or setups to those of the Plains. We all know why the Plains get higher-end/widespread outbreaks - EML. As you know, when it comes to getting severe weather or tornadoes - an EML isn't necessarily important (if you want widespread/high-end severe it is). 

So, I guess the jest of the series of posts is to try and put out there that in our discussion of this potential, we aren't calling for widespread severe or higher end severe...so if we only get a handful or svr reports or a tornado some aren't screaming "bust"...a handful of svr reports and even a tornado would fit the mold of what the most logical outcome is from this setup. 

This will be a mesoscale assessment for sure. We get dews 73-75F and bring about some cloud breaks...that would provide enough instability to perhaps fire a few cells and make those cells interesting. 

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before?  Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage.   But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

Setups with off the charts wind shear tend to not really produce just because sufficient buoyancy tends to be limited. If setups of this magnitude had a tendency to produce, our average tornado numbers would be significantly higher. These very large hodographs with the veered llvls imply a great deal of llvl warm air advection, which is great, but not when its a theme through the entire troposphere. 

With this said, these setups always need to be closely watched and monitored because even one tornado or pocket of wind damage is likely disruptive to life/property. We'll have to see how much buoyancy we can develop but when 500mb temps are only progged to be ~-7C or -8C...big flag you aren't getting much in that department, particularly enough to provide parcels with additional acceleration once past the LFC.

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be -

Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it!  so here we go:  whenever you see high arctan angles ...

.... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope, you have large +helicity where ...

...is located.

Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride.

Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations?  That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer.  ...as though that's even needed on the former constraints.   my god

I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. 

The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over. 

Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though