weatherwiz

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def colder look mid-month….on both GFS and Canadian suites. Always be weary of the big torch look when you get blocking like that in the Atlantic…esp when there’s been a lot of recent cold with deep snow pack over a large area. 
 

Hopefully we can score one of these. Usually we can if historical -PNA/-NAO is any guide. Usually our bigger concern is ptype and not suppression. 

Based on what was going around on social media I don't know where the idea came really of a "torch" or whatever you want to call it upcoming. I mean we were clearly going to moderate from what we've been experiencing. This is when anomaly maps get tossed around and are used and interpreted incorrectly. We are still in peak climo in terms of temperatures...orange and red shadings on anomaly maps don't necessarily indicate or mean warm...we can still be above average and its still relatively cold or chilly or whatever. The only areas where its clear there will be a significant warmup is within the central Plains. 

Even those temp anomaly maps from BAM or sham or whoever...+12 to +15 in the upper-Midwest this time of year is still chilly

Makes my life easier. I was creating stuff using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI...now I can just eliminate the ONI

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.

Yup.

Sounds like the ONI will continue being maintained but the RONI will be the go to now. 

@40/70 Benchmark

Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

Wagons in on that 13-15 period. Time to throw in the chips and hope for another biggie 

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yup, I’m still craving snow with the hopes of building on this pack before we truly warm and it becomes difficult to sustain it.

Time is starting to run thin though, especially with not much - if anything in the pipe line in terms of anything big except that mid-month period but there is disagreement on how legit it is. Obviously we can get snow and big storms into March but it becomes much more difficult to do (outside of NNE). But once we hit that time change...bring on the warmer weather. 

Going to enjoy what's left of winter and continue enjoying and admiring the scenery outside, but in another 4-5 weeks...I will be full on ready for warmer weather and looking for that first stretch of 60's.  

Oh wow didn't realize this but the RONI is going to be the official monitoring and prediction of ENSO for the CPC 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-05_Relative_ONI.pdf

Euro doesn't look too bad for Friday night and Saturday. Not looking in at zoomed in but looks like maybe even a bit of an inverted trough into parts of RI/eastern CT? Probably be a good 2-3" region wide I'd think

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much.   

The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere.  It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...).  Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff.  

It's all sketchy to me at best.

 

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. 

It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for...    neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to getting a kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and a solitary run of the GFS (06z). 

Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time.   -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO.

wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. 

Rise in the NAO

with a declining PNA

All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Relative to WIDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. 

A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really think people are going to be surprised at the impact that the TPV visit this weekend will have.

Agreed. 

These things don't just come in quiet. I think there will be snow showers and squalls around all weekend, perhaps not widespread but there is definitely some moisture around. Orographically areas likely favored 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-3 on euro Friday night with more on cstl PYM county.

could be potential for some decent OES across the Cape Sunday/Monday 

The period around mid February is quite intriguing I think, at least in terms of the evolution of teleconnections which I know Tip has touched upon. But during that period the NAO is forecast to become less negative over time with the PNA becoming more neutral. Will be very active in the shortwave department. Obviously how everything evolves is a different story but that is a period to 100% watch

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunny part of my street finally melted, but other parts are messy.

That road doesn't usually see any sun until like later March or April lol. Went out yesterday and was glad the roads that do get sun were in pretty great shape. 

Just now, dendrite said:

Dews were near 0F

That explains it. TBH I've been trying to avoid looking at the temp/dewpoint because it just makes it worse. Not looking forward to this upcoming weekend. I might watch the SB from the inside of a fire place

Despite the temperatures and abundance of sun today I am impressed by the lack of snowmelt. The road here is still a complete disaster too

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Today is Truck Day!

Hopefully it breaks down 

It might only be early February and we may still have several weeks of winter to go, however, that doesn't change the fact winter is getting into its back half which means spring is approaching and pretty soon severe weather season. While its usually not until late May or early June when we start getting some real severe threats May 1 is a great proxy to use because we can sometimes sneak in some early season events and it gives time to switch the mind into convective forecast mode and start sniffing out guidance for potential threats. Just like professional athletes need a pre-season to prepare for the season and shake off the off-season rust, this threat offers the same thing...a good place to talk convection and shake off the rust. 

With this said, we'll open the countdown at 88 days  

Its coming and coming quickly

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess?  A couple years from now that will change too. So we just hang tight for the time being.  

It will certainly change. 

I really wish we could get a good 2-3 year period of ENSO neutral conditions. I think that would go along way of stabilizing things for a bit

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well whatever that all means…which is certainly above my pay grade. I guess it only affects the northeast coast of the U.S. then.  

Well technically it doesn't only affect the northeast coast of the U.S. it has an effect everywhere but the effects (or the results) or just the by product. For us a byproduct is just shitty luck, for areas to our west and south the byproduct is increased potential. 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The quickening flow is well past documentation and researched/papered ... I've supplied links over the years. 

One can go to Phys.org or where ever access point they use and bother looking for themselves at this point.

Plus, why do we think all those air-land speed flight records have been set in recent decades re west-->east?

It's not a question of whether the flow is fast or not..  Fiddling with Navier-Stokes, agreed - but the basic wave form of the Navier Stokes equations ( which are processed in the physical make up in the model), has the U component variable - which is the static velocity of fluid medium within which the wave propagation takes place. Increasing the value is going to do something to the wave spacing.

 

Yeah I'll check this out more, Phys.org is pretty great. 

And thanks for the last paragraph, that is precisely what I was trying to illustrate but could not put into coherent wording. I think having a sound fundamental background in this understanding can go along way in medium range forecasting. If there is one thing I would really love to study further and understand it's wave spacing and factors which influence wave spacing...and then how forecast models handle wave spacing.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you aren't in patters conducive to east coast amplification, you ejther get cutters, or suppressed systems in really cold patterns that can't turn up the coast...sound familiar to the past several seasons?

Can't sum it up any better than this really. 

When the pattern is not right or the pattern doesn't evolve in a favorable fashion based on historical precedence, it's incredibly difficult to get things to work out.