weatherwiz

GFS too with the signal up around BOS

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With ratios may end 3-6” across the region. Minimum 2-4”

If upward vertical motion was greater over a widespread area I could see this but not sure we will have enough over a large area to support that. 

12z NAM bufkit for BOS. 30 ub/s of omega there. Although I am curious as to why the dip in snow ratio during the height 

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is that what you would call a crosshair signature?

Absolutely 

Now I'm seeing some of those soundings. Not sure if this is a COD thing but sometimes the point-and-click soundings don't really match up to what you'd expect to be seeing. You'd have to wonder if some localized warning amounts are possible if this verified 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pivotal has NAM soundings...just click on the map. 

 

Yeah its very unstable in the lower levels. 

oh no...I meant location  

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you're gonna stack it fast if you get this sounding

where did you find that? I was looking through trying to find some soundings like that. That is pretty damn unstable too 

That's some really good convergence which develops through the day across eastern Mass. I'm curious to see what the HREF has for precip...I would not be shocked if QPF is going to be understated where synoptically it looks best for prolonged and heavier snows. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be two features. One south of LI poking into SE CT and another off the MA coast. But models continue to differ how these are handled. I’m not surprised considering the setup. It’s honestly probably a nowcast. But overall  general C-2” outside of any narrow trough bands. 

Definitely interesting up around BOS on the NAM. 

Agreed...I'm thinking most should see 1-2" but where you get those localized bands I could legit see some spots picking up 3-5". 

It's going to be very localized but there is going to be a very narrow area which I think pulls off 3-5" within eastern CT...maybe more into SE CT

The 12z HRRR has that feature too 

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def colder look mid-month….on both GFS and Canadian suites. Always be weary of the big torch look when you get blocking like that in the Atlantic…esp when there’s been a lot of recent cold with deep snow pack over a large area. 
 

Hopefully we can score one of these. Usually we can if historical -PNA/-NAO is any guide. Usually our bigger concern is ptype and not suppression. 

Based on what was going around on social media I don't know where the idea came really of a "torch" or whatever you want to call it upcoming. I mean we were clearly going to moderate from what we've been experiencing. This is when anomaly maps get tossed around and are used and interpreted incorrectly. We are still in peak climo in terms of temperatures...orange and red shadings on anomaly maps don't necessarily indicate or mean warm...we can still be above average and its still relatively cold or chilly or whatever. The only areas where its clear there will be a significant warmup is within the central Plains. 

Even those temp anomaly maps from BAM or sham or whoever...+12 to +15 in the upper-Midwest this time of year is still chilly

Makes my life easier. I was creating stuff using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI...now I can just eliminate the ONI

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.

Yup.

Sounds like the ONI will continue being maintained but the RONI will be the go to now. 

@40/70 Benchmark

Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

Wagons in on that 13-15 period. Time to throw in the chips and hope for another biggie 

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yup, I’m still craving snow with the hopes of building on this pack before we truly warm and it becomes difficult to sustain it.

Time is starting to run thin though, especially with not much - if anything in the pipe line in terms of anything big except that mid-month period but there is disagreement on how legit it is. Obviously we can get snow and big storms into March but it becomes much more difficult to do (outside of NNE). But once we hit that time change...bring on the warmer weather. 

Going to enjoy what's left of winter and continue enjoying and admiring the scenery outside, but in another 4-5 weeks...I will be full on ready for warmer weather and looking for that first stretch of 60's.  

Oh wow didn't realize this but the RONI is going to be the official monitoring and prediction of ENSO for the CPC 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-05_Relative_ONI.pdf

Euro doesn't look too bad for Friday night and Saturday. Not looking in at zoomed in but looks like maybe even a bit of an inverted trough into parts of RI/eastern CT? Probably be a good 2-3" region wide I'd think

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much.   

The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere.  It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...).  Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff.  

It's all sketchy to me at best.

 

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. 

It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for...    neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to getting a kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and a solitary run of the GFS (06z). 

Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time.   -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO.

wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. 

Rise in the NAO

with a declining PNA

All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Relative to WIDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. 

A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really think people are going to be surprised at the impact that the TPV visit this weekend will have.

Agreed. 

These things don't just come in quiet. I think there will be snow showers and squalls around all weekend, perhaps not widespread but there is definitely some moisture around. Orographically areas likely favored 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-3 on euro Friday night with more on cstl PYM county.

could be potential for some decent OES across the Cape Sunday/Monday