weatherwiz

Monday could be a decent severe setup too. 

Going to be an active several days in the convective department. Certainly going to start seeing some increased flood concerns too. Time to toss those drought maps 

I am surprised we don't have at least a marginal risk for Friday 

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

May have to watch out for a few (rather isolated) strong storms across western MA/CT late Thursday afternoon 

got a marginal just off to the west with the new D3

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CoD fixing the important things

#4 seems like it was already perfect as is. 

May even have some decent severe potential next week 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Won’t be 70+ at official sites. The muggies start advecting in on the south coast at night. By mid morning Thu they mix down for all. 

I'm actually not so sure we really see dews mix down during the day on Thursday. 

Well...I should say, not mix below 70. Probably would start the day 73-76F but mix down to like 71-72

This month will most likely finish above average, especially if the signals for the second half of the month verify 

May have to watch out for a few (rather isolated) strong storms across western MA/CT late Thursday afternoon 

39 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Dave is not a met, but he is very knowledgeable and a good commnicator.  Consistently voted as the best forecaster in WMASS by the Pioneer Valley Advocate and has a large following.  Understands the local climatology, topography, and nuances of forecasting in the region well.  His focus is WMASS but he extends into SVT,SWNH and NCT.  He's not infallible. but I find him very solid.  

I enjoy his posts and discussions. Extremely knowledgeable and doesn't try to hype things up...just tells it exactly the way it is. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah dews extend into a portion of next week. 
 

After that it will cool down, but then perhaps warm up again later on in the 2nd half of the month. 

Almost looks like a similar transition to the pattern we had a few weeks back. That is some ridge being modeled second half of the month...that is a massive area of 600+ dm heights on the GFS.

Much of next week is going to be quite warm with high dewpoints, at least until the front moves through sometime second half of the week. We definitely encounter a period of around average temperatures with low humidity, should that western ridge become as stout as some guidance suggests and we end up with a NW flow. We'll see how long that holds though...may get one more run at big heat/humidity following that period.

38 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The areal coverage of +2-inch amounts is easily exceeding other events... I think Wiz's call yesterday was spot on...

Thought this even looked good last Thursday or maybe it was Friday. Front is actually moving more quickly than I thought but when you're ripping a 40+ knot LLJ ahead of a slow moving front with sfc dews >70 and 850 dews into the 60's, PWATS > 2" and a totally saturated profile...great way to great prolific rain rates and over a large area. 

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No flood watch but this will be more prolific than last week.

AWT

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Too bad no one saw this coming… 10,000 square miles of New England with 1.5-3” of rain in a few hours lol 

 Some knew 

This rain is insane. Can’t even take a shower this morning because there’s been thunder and lightning. Have to go to a doctors appointment soon too 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing that. Everyone will rain but only a very narrow area will get anything of bigger significance. There will be a small zone that trains .. but it’s nothing widespread 

The big difference in this versus the previous setups is this rain isn't spread out over a long duration. This will be the type of stuff that produces 2-4" in 1-2 hours versus several-plus hours. 

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Folks is cocked . Tomorrow is one of those have/ have nots days. Most turns get a downpour or two and a few that train get 2” and that’s it. Very meh setup with no sun 

Rainfall rates will be quite impressive tomorrow and the initial round of rain is going to be on the widespread side and then we see what we can develop during the day in terms of convection. You have a stout southerly LLJ into the region with 8850 dewpoints +16 to +17C and PWAT values between 2.20" and 2.40". There is no capping and you have the LFC right about the same height as the LCL. The radar is going to be lit up with rain and continuous development of downpours and embedded thunder throughout the day and this will train across a large area. 

I'm shocked there aren't flash flood watches out or flood watches. I bet tonight into tomorrow evening has more reports of flooding than the past few setups combined. 

Not a bad looking core. Surprised at least no SPS on it

Thundering here!!!! 

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Euro also has something just not as robust.. ICON also faintly seeing it 

I'd actually be shocked if the ICON wasn't  

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday could be interesting. We are juiced to the teets as far as. Moisture goes. If we can get decent shear like gfs has, could be severe in spots. At the least could be prolific rain and maybe decent ltg with those dews.

Pretty classic wet microburst look on soundings if we can get anything to materialize 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Garbage model 

Looks like a typical GFS fantasy storm 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. 

Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. 

That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues.

Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. 

Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. 

Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. 

Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well of the East Coast seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years. 

 

Great stuff,

are all these plots from the University of Miami. I love these wind shear/instability plots 

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Something will pop in the subtropics eventually, but this ain’t it.

Today was actually the first day I started thinking about my annual peak season forecast. It’ll be a dead basin this season, but how dead is TBD. 

I was doing some digging last week and some of the extended guidance seemed to want and relax wind shear across the MDR a bit, however, I wasn't particularly sold and was wondering if that was a product of guidance in the extended favoring climo and wanting to decrease shear as we get closer to peak climo. Waters in the MDR are also pretty meh. Will continue to be a focus for home brew, especially as we start getting more active with fronts.