weatherwiz

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

feels very warm to me.   86 to 89 at most home/non-official sites, enough en masse that combined with the sensible appeal out there ...it's legit.  With almost nill movement to the air and intense insolation, that's pushing it

It's been a great gradual increase in warmth/humidity through the day. Working outside and I've really felt this increase in the last few hours. The sweat slowly develops and you can feel yourself starting to stick to the leather chair all so slowly...its like applying a fine strip of super glue to a broken piece of glass. My shorts are that glue 

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We get better thunderstorms in February than summer lately

Torched mid-levels suck. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's late June, you'll always have steep low level lapse rates lol.

That is true  

But I think 2-6km lapse rates are a better metric to use when assessing damaging wind gusts potential versus the standard "low-level lapse rates" which I think are measured 0-3km?

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Sucks to be us. 

 

hmmm...not sure what he is referring to with steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates are garbage so I am assuming he means low-level lapse rates...but not sure how steep those are tomorrow regionally due to lots of cloud cover. Probably a better chance llvl lapse rates are steeper across southeast PA into NJ but not sure if they will be anything to write home about. 

Not sure I see much risk for an isolated tornado there...if any risk existed it would be in central New England, closer to the warm front. Winds down there veer more in the llvls as the warm front lifts farther northeast. 

Tomorrow may not see much lol. It's extremely warm aloft. +9C to +10C at 700 and -7C at 500mb. Actually kind of sucks because forcing/shear isn't terrible.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can't believe how lame storms have been over the last several years. Unreal.

It really blows. I would really kill for a repeat of 2008 with the constant cold pools. June and July were insane with the daily thunderstorms and hail. Would even be better if we could get 90's squall lines again but that seems like a distant thing of the past. 

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow seems meh for storms. Wonder if the early morning stuff limits some heating. Kind of looks messy overall.

Yup...looks like best will be southwest (of course). Might have to watch central/northern New England though around the warm front. SPC hints at it too...but could be potential for a TOR or two if there is enough destabilizing there

This is summer weather. This is New England, not the desert Southwest. Lower elevations away from the coastal Plain climbing into the 80's for highs and higher elevations/coast you take a few degrees off. 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Congrats on clearing out mid afternoon. Sounds like an epic day. 

Better late than never! 
 

I always enjoy these type of days, it’s crazy how it can be so cloudy/cool/drizzle then several hours later hot and humid. I was outside with the dog right as the crap was clearing out and feel the change in real time 

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

59.9° OVC

No AC

GWDLT.

would need a jacket sitting outside 

20 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Yeah. Some great dews this evening.

The forecast area will also reside in a very muggy warm sector tonight with dew points getting into the lower 70s before the passage of the cold front.

I give this 9/10

10/10 would be the other day when it was 100/73

What a phenomenal evening 

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I like the shear, just have to destabilize sufficiently. 

I'm not a huge fan of temperature anomaly maps. They're useful but terrible for communication purposes.  

Well hoping we can maybe muster some good convection potential Tuesday. Timing should be more favorable but may have to deal with AM crap/clouds

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The 4th looks like the coolest day out of the bunch coming up. Probably near 80 and low dews. Otherwise it’s a summery look. Possibly some 90+ weekend after the 4th. After that we trough again and then as I said yesterday, it looks to retro and open up the door to warmer and more humid weather at the end of the 11-15 day. 

yeah we get that weak front moving through end of week with high pressure building in but looks like its a one day ordeal and we flip to very warm/humid for Saturday.

Next Saturday should be solidly into the 80's (obviously except immediate coastal probably and the higher elevations) and Saturday night will be into the 60's for lows. 

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's the theory of the case anyway. Instead of pouring resources into multiple models, we can focus all our energy on making the RRFS really good. 

Of course the FV3 core was really not great for convection and had to be scrapped. So now we're starting over with MPAS for a core. 

In an ideal world you would have the GFS/GEFS for longer range, RRFS/REFS for the inside 60 hours, and WoFS for storm scale, event driven cases. 

This would probably help with the idea of "too many tools in the box". There are so many models and data to digest, who really has time to do all of that? If the energy and focus can be spent on a few models to improve assimilation and initialization that would go a substantial way in improving forecast accuracy and confidence. 

32 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Would not want to lose the HREF... 

Was shocked to see that mentioned. Isn't that a "newer product anyways"? I forgot when HREF became operational but I feel like it was at least in the last 10 years?

22 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Embrace the NAM while you can, weenies.

Change is coming.

Interesting. Assuming this could be a big positive in more resources would be available for the RRFS instead of running all these various short-term mesos.

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

But seriously, where are the mid 80s in N ORH county for Sunday?

mid 80's may be tough but we will be warming the llvls through the day with a northwesterly flow so probably have to tack on 2-3F to the 2m progs. 

Timing blows a bit tomorrow but western areas could see some storms during the early evening. Probably see marginal expanded east some with an upgrade to a slight risk in there

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saturday could sneakily become a low risk severe day ... 

I think I see what's been going on - and the Euro may have been superior in this regard.  The flow's more progressive, and the high that is passing N of the region through tomorrow, is faster moving off S of the Maritime in the prior Euro runs than the GFS, which in delaying that departure ...yeah, it's mass fields are holding damming in longer...

This 12z GFS run inched a little N with the warm front again - now between the Pike and Rt 2 at 18z.  Two runs ago it was near NYC

But here's the thing, the Euro's front was ironically slower, and the GFS is now faster with the trailing cold front.  I don't think the lapse rates are good given this ( but haven't seen soundings...) but when you dawn with warm front escape, then have a cool boundary into western zones later in the day, that's a typical severe set up - in principle.   There's also a right exit--> entrance relay as a 500 mb S/W perturbation moves through NNE in the afternoon.

Sure could be! I was thinking about you when I was looking at that earlier haha. I knew you would provide some in depth analysis on this.

Good call Kevin yesterday 

Actually I wonder if Berkshire County could get some strong storms late Sat afternoon or early evening 

Tuesday could be a fun day...start of NHL free agency and maybe some strong storms!