weatherwiz

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's probably underdone.  

these types of science -based studies result in estimates.  Sophisticated as they may be compared to oh say ..., Kevin-types and their brilliant objective-based illustrations of what is going to happen to trees and building and stuff... , they are still based upon more linearly algebraic resolutions using available/reanalaytic metrical inputs.

what they don't include are the synergistic products of complex higher order energetic systems.   one question that immediately leaps to mind for me is the 'domino effect' thereof.   You get to a certain pervasive failure quotient and the weight just topples everything.  We actually observed something similar to this during the 2008 ice storm up there in N Worcester and Middlesex Co.  The margin towns that did record any icing, or if so... limited amounts, lost power by load balancing when substations reeled - often times safety measures built in cut regional grids... This is particularly true in tangled messes of major events where regions are a labyrinth of partially mixed with total and non disrupted messes.  Everyone goes down in that region...

I'm sure their science takes that into account, but when events get in that GOAT range ...there's almost always unexpected emergent properties. 

100% agreed. 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

There as actually a presentation similar to this at the Tri-State Weather conference this past Saturday.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday could be interesting. Wind fields are strong. It's not out of the question there could be some strong winds if tstms form. Instability overall is lacking, but it is a dynamic system. 

The CAA winds Saturday diminished some. Still could be 40 to maybe near 50mph.

Maybe a SYR special today?

Sucks instability on Friday will be limited because those are some insane dynamics and a vigorous shortwave approaching. Maybe get a risk for some strong storms along the coast where dews could sneak into the lower 60s. 

You know you've entered Fall (or Spring) when MAV/MET differ by 7-8-9°F or more on forecast high temps (particularly when a warmer than average llvl airmass is in place).

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Was saying that in the NNE thread earlier haha. I've been skeptical, but there's a solid cross guidance signal for flakes up here this weekend. GFS was pretty aggressive along with its AI counterpart. Euro not as much. I like seeing the lingering moisture after the front. We can produce nicely on that. 

Not sure about the Tug however, as this looks like more NW flow than westerly off Ontario, if you're talking LES potential. 

That is a very robust shortwave digging into the region with some healthy moisture in place and rather steep lapse rates. 

Wasn't looking at LES in this case...just more elevated/terrain enhancement. 

Would not be surprised to see multiple inches of accumulating snow for ski areas on Saturday and maybe even grassy accumulation accumulations lower elevations of NNE. Wonder if the Tug hill could pull off several-plus inches 

Ughhhhh I knew this was bound to happen. They’re just getting bigger and deadlier here. Adapting to our climate and just relocating from other areas. 
 

https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-haven/venomous-spider-species-documented-in-connecticut-for-the-first-time/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_WTNH_News_8&fbclid=IwZnRzaAUzh-hleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBwZG9mBWZkaWQWUP0fgIBV4YT5gAujHlk__9yP03ilPXNydGMGYXBwX2lkCjY2Mjg1NjgzNzkAAR46RL7csvZP_EevojJ70Jc8_yzDkguN2GZP_lfF_0i9ITCVH690hW3pJK0g_w_aem_afEitbdedFZMbV3_6lCdUA

I'll never understand how cold could be "fake"

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All night? What are you elderly?

It probably came on 3-4 times overnight and about 3-4 times in the 3 hours I've been up. 

I don't think its very well insulated. It gets crazy hot in here once it gets above like 65-70, especially the bedroom and super chilly in the winter. Also, doesn't help that the ACs are still in the living room/bedroom window. I think both have massive spider webs and spiders attached to them so I can't take them out until they go

Frosty morning, heat kicking on all night. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Upcoming stretch looks about as perfect as can be for Fall. We'll definitely get some chilly nights with HPs rolling through but temperatures will rebound nicely during the day. There certainly could be some unseasonably warm days mixed in if we aren't wedged but a very Fall like pattern...mild days with cool-to-chilly overnights.  

Looks like the retirement of the NAMs/HRRR/HREF/etc and operational implementation of the RRFS has been delayed again, this time to November 3. An error was found within one of the ensemble members of the RRFS and was corrected, but I guess per policy they have to wait 30-days

NAM a bit more aggressive with the potential for showers tomorrow night, particularly along and north of the Pike 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

First morning that really truly felt like autumn.

Sure did. Was standing outside with the dog when I took that picture and it felt like deep autumn and the sky had that late fall/winter crisp clear look. When I was outside last night and the wind was blowing I was thinking to myself, "I am not looking forward to any Arctic snaps where its 10F out with wind whipping"  

What an early morning sky today. The moon instantly caught my eye with the “star” basically adjacent to the moon. I did not initially realize it was Jupiter, thought maybe Mars. You can also sort of see the un-illuminated part of the moon as the brightness of Jupiter is just enough to give an outline (though it’s obviously exaggerated in the photo)

Maybe even some risk for some localized damaging wind gusts tomorrow

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Kind of surprised SPC doesn't have general thunder extending into the Northeast tomorrow

Here's the general...AWT

Where are people getting these sunny forecasts from these past few days? Was always going to be clouds rolling in 

Kind of surprised SPC doesn't have general thunder extending into the Northeast tomorrow

Just noticed PSU now has bufkit data for RRFS. 

Since Thursday is October I'll just put this here

Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM 

Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

A lot of people have an infatuation with drama or the need to always be a part of extreme events. The clickbaiters give them exactly what they want. 

sports is the same way. so many click bait articles when it comes to sports

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

most people don't get their information from local outlets but click bait mets, and there is mpst of the disconnect

The gap between television and other sources such as mobiles apps and social media is closing, however, local television is still rated as the #1 source. Even if people are getting information from other sources, a large percentage still revert to their local network as a means to try and verify the validity. 

Nowcasts and storm updates, particularly during extreme weather events (severe weather, winter storms, etc.) are absolutely critical and part of the forecasting process