weatherwiz

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

93/70

ouch

meh just a little warm 

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

It's funny that people think this is something nefarious.

The issue is that the weather graphics vendor most stations use (your former employer) have an almost impossible to figure out UI when it comes to building bar graphs and charts. TBH, it's why I don't show them very often. Obviously it shouldn't have been used but we're generally using horribly outdated equipment and graphics systems that are generally awful all around.

At WestConn we still had to use PowerPoint for our broadcasts because the school refused to pay for WSI and didn't care how important it was. I'm pretty sure they still use PowerPoint to this day. 

It's going to be too much to ask to get something to time right in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, isn't it?

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

There have been numerous psychological studies done on what works to attract viewers/readers..I ve participated in several focus groups on advertising. Ive always been amazed about what prompted some people to react to the ads/commercials....

I can certainly imagine lol. Its interesting how the human brain works

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is all about getting people to watch and/or page hits to generate advertising dollars.

People are attracted to those types of headlines....if they said something like "it's going to be  a typical July day in the east"...their  audience would be lower..

It is always best to ignore the hype in weather and sports...

Wish this concept was more easily grasp by the population 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weather is just sexier now to show on the news because we are able to catch raw and captivating video like never before. Everyone has a smart phone and can send it to a news network.

I will say that when the national news shows clips of severe weather as a headline, you'd think the weather has gone wild, but to me it looks like what summer weather brings lol. But to Jane and John Doe it might not. But that's just how it is. Footage of severe weather captivates people.

the headlines with severe weather are a joke. "Tens of thousands under the gun for severe weather". CNN and NY Post loves to do this. Then you have clowns like Ryan Hall and Max Velocity who have to use that headline and that have their stupid looking face making a stupid reaction in their thumbnails. 

I really hope we can time an EML plume with the front next week but not looking particularly favorable right now...but we are a bit far out. 

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

@Typhoon Tip Will love this

https://www.the-independent.com/life-style/cold-blob-atlantic-ocean-amoc-current-climate-change-b3009895.html

Made a comment on this a while back but isn't this sort of a product of the declining +AMO as we transition to a -NAO regime? 

12z HRRR yesterday did a nice job with the idea today and then NAM followed suite. Been steady all day but has been heaviest over the past hour. Breeze picking up too

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan was concerned that some areas were in for flooding too…so what can you do? Modeling was throwing those ideas around. 

Concern for some localized flash flooding, sure. But some of what was going around made it seem like flooding was going to be a large or widespread issue. But this is becoming a big problem in forecasting when it comes to some of these products. Folks see ensembles going crazy and all of a sudden alarm bells are sounded without fully divulging into all the data and then you have these products like extreme forecast index which further adds to the alarm bells. Yes, sure when you have these products showing something extreme there definitely should be concern, but they can't just be taken at face value nor should they be. Same goes with severe weather and winter weather...even in the west, a ton of events will get all hyped up with talk of tornado outbreaks and strong tornadoes because supercell composite parameter/significant tornado parameter forecasts are "through the roof" then the event comes and there are barely any tornadoes, let alone strong ones. And of course winter...D12 snowmaps show widespread 20-30" storms and here goes the social media hype for a massive blizzard. 

While sure there were guidance throwing around widespread 4-8" rain amounts and isolated higher totals, it was pretty clear that was not going to be the case and any amounts that excessive would most likely be extremely isolated or confined closer to where the warm front would be and it was also clear these totals would be spread out over a longer duration. Overall flood risk appeared low. 

Like I said earlier, watch in a few weeks we will get a setup with produces flooding and there will be little talk of the potential. For whatever reason it seems anytime talk of flooding is possible it never pans out, then we get setups where there is little mention of flooding possibility and you have problems all over. 

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

 

All of you were forecasting regional flooding and a few had 4-6” of rain for the area . None of those things happened. So sure there was more rain than I thought, but nothing like what you called for at various points the last  few days . Let’s look in the mirror and own up.

The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?).

One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming 

Were there even any major flood reports or any flooding reports outside of the typical low street or poor drainage? All that was going around on social media you would have thought disaster was coming lol. Meanwhile in 3 weeks we'll get a setup with no flood watches, no WPC area for flooding, and half of the Merritt and stretches of 95 from CT into RI/SE MA will be underwater with cars trapped 

Have to head to the store later and grab a few things...definitely switching from shorts to jeans. going to suck

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In all fairness, Lots of us south of Hartford in CT are gonna end up with 3-4” plus if this goes all night.  I realize there’s quite the cut off north of CT boarder…but South of that it’s adding up. 

Yeah but nothing near the widespread 4-6/5-7" that was floating around on some of the guidance. And the overall flooding risk seems relatively low...I don't think the moderate was necessarily needed by the WPC. This was a long drawn out steady rain (and kind of in chunks). Will be worse off to our south. Definitely a much needed rain for sure but overall this was below a much more concerning flooding risk 

Noah almost cancelled his plans in Heaven to come down and build an arc when he saw all these crazy ensembles and high extreme forecasts index. Good thing he decided not too

The NAM does go ray with the LLJ too but still, if you want to see excessive rainfall amounts with a high flood concern, you're going to want to see a situation where the rain band is essentially stationary. This isn't exactly hauling but its not really crawling through either. 

This evolution doesn't scream flood to me outside of any typical spots that flood even when someone leaves their garden hose on too long. I want to see an expansive area of 35-40+ dbz which is almost not moving and with a continuous fetch of moisture and a continued blossoming of the precip shield with intense echoes so the rain shield is essentially stationary. 

I think its safe to say, that can be tossed and tossed very far

Goes very wild with the llvl jet 

30 minutes ago, yoda said:

Is this what @weatherwiz is salivating over? Lol

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
   increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
   Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
   continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
   interior U.S. by early next week.  How far north and northeast this
   builds remains unclear;  however, a plume of very warm elevated
   mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
   through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
   contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
   severe thunderstorm development.  

   It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
   Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast.  By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
   particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
   trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
   which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
   development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. 
   Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
   model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
   than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
   change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

We can only hope 

19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Think later this afternoon and tonight will be wild for some

IDK This really doesn't seem all that impressive nor does it look like it is going to evolve to be so. Just a good ole fashion steady, soaking rain. Highest totals probably end up coastal CT/Long Island. Congrats to the Fish in the Sound

11 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It'll be fine, sometimes I wonder if covers are more a hassle than they are worth.  They also become a bee haven.

Good point. Towards the end of last summer when I would take the cover off before using it I would have bees flying out from it

Looking like the max totals will def be towards the coast but probably nothing obscene. Probably some totals up around 4-5"...maybe someone gets 6"

Damn it, I forgot to cover the grill before bed last night after making burgers  

26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Never say never, but I think this was good ol' fashioned straight line wind. That was a textbook bowing signature. You had a great signal for a rear inflow jet.

People are always surprised when they see real wind damage.

I think I saw vortex95 mention this but the reflectivity gradient along the leading edge of those storms was about as textbook as you'll see for these parts, hell that would even be impressive anywhere else. Anytime you see a super strong wind signature like that I guess there is the risk for a brief spinup but I don't think there was anything really pointing towards a tornado or rotation. Velocity signatures on all radar sites was pretty evident with straight-line wind signatures and if you look at the environment, there really wasn't anything supportive for tornado formation. Just a textbook classic setup for straightline winds and widespread given the development of a cold pool.