weatherwiz

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence

This illustrates beautifully. While using OP at this time range isn't particularly great, I do think there is some value in assessing how the OP is handing the overall evolution of the pattern during that time frame. In doing this, you can see there has been a tendency to somewhat compress the heights a bit and there is also some pretty strong vort maxes modeled...these would further help to flatten that flow out a bit. That look on the ensembles screams some sort of storm potential. I think that period through the first week of January is shaping up to be active. 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t see the pessimism…

still a chance for Christmas Eve miracle on AIFS and Euro .. and Euro with a Boxing Day biggie for CNE

Yeah there really is no reason to panic or anything yet. It's already been established the surface may not be totally reflective of what is going on in the mid-levels. What we can gather from that period, however, is that it could be active. How those pieces fall into place...way too early to worry about that. 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

The one thing I think everyone does best though is when there is a legit threat or when an event is ongoing...the discussion is generally pretty great and top notch. the occasional joke posts here and there but everyone puts on their game cap when needed. 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just about everyone does olympic level mental gymnastics during the winter from southeast Canada to Georgia. People are overly pessimistic just as they are overly positive depending on where they sit and how desperate they are for snow. Like you said, that's the purpose of the board, and it's what makes it incredibly fun and incredibly frustrating all season long. Most people strike enough of a balance to fit in, but we have our positive and negative outliers--God love (most of) 'em, no doubt about it. 

My perspective has always been--just have fun. If you're negative, have fun with it. If you're a #faithinflakes kind of person, make it entertaining not obsessive. If you don't believe in fun, be educational at least. 

Life is far too short and serious to be miserable here. 

Well stated, especially the having fun part. I know there are some who don't want to read the nonsense or care for it but some of the troll stuff when the weather is boring is downright hilarious. 

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I’m not going to argue anymore, but is 100% the truth. There would be posts talking about how it fits the pattern, etc. I mean, let’s just be honest about what’s really happening. People don’t want to discuss the potential negative outcomes, it’s as simple as that.

It's basically trying will things to happen which look bad. Trying to find ways in which it will work. 99% of forecast models could show a rain storm at D6 and one model showing potential for all snow...all the focus would be on how that one model "could verify" over what the actual situation is 

I mean...I'm not complaining about this, that's why we're all here and it's the purpose of the board...it's a discussion board lol. But it does I think yield in blending the line of fantasy versus reality at times. 

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

with respect to that surface hp around the 22nd/23rd, there isn't much to suggest we're gonna run a big moisture plume into it right now and even a 6z gfs front ender doesn't have a lot of support at this time (including from 12z).  But maybe a deamplifying wave of some kind could be in play on the front side of the ridge going up in the center of the CONUS.  Normally that's not gonna excite most people, but could be the difference in a white Christmas for some.

If things unfolded as advertised, I wouldn't be surprised if we had a decent chance of throwing more moisture our way given the southwesterly flow around the stout high across the southeast. However, I think what we would really want to see is a deamplifying wave like you said...or even a strong Arctic cold front plowing southeast across the Plains which would help tap into the Gulf. What would be excellent if there was a connecting the the equatorial PAC...we would be golden I think there 

Just now, radarman said:

good thing they probably don't have many large trees in the northern Plains or upper-Midwest (or maybe they do...never been).

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But you keep harping on these Op runs at 10 plus days out…and how bad they look. And yes, Brett, if they showed a blizzard, at 8-11 days out we’d take them just as insignificantly.   As Steve said…op runs at those lead times are BS for sensible weather. Yet you continue to use them to push your disdain for the weather.  It’s frigid. It’s been frigid. Yes, we got boned in the snow department…especially compared to basically everyone around us…but that shit happens bro.  Maybe we make up for it going forward at some point.  I know you don’t like to hear this, but it’s really not even winter yet.  But That’s a fact. 

I disagree with this. There would be 100 posts just showing snow maps from 50 different models and then comparing changes in the snow maps to justify any trends and then the if game on how if a,b,c,d,e,f do this it has a chance. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol… Very wintry out there for sure. Enjoy and appreciate.   

Was outside last night want to say it was around 9:00 or so and it was very peaceful just looking around and seeing everything covered in snow with Christmas lights...for some reason, this scenery makes it so you don't even feel the cold. All it takes is a couple inches of snow to totally change the mood.

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Paul, I think your approach narrows the possibilities.  I mean isn’t AI inherently “better computing” considering the concept is deep learning?  I think AI can be tweaked when we see where it needs to be quickly.  As a crude example, my phone quickly learns how I use “muthufukka”.    Phones five years ago it took much longer and my next phone should even learn it faster.

No disagreement there, but (and maybe I am flat out wrong on this) we can't teach AI something that we don't know ourselves. For example, when it comes to physics and mathematics, AI isn't going to teach us or give us a better understanding of how atmospheric physics works and how these processes behave and evolve. Let's look at thunderstorms, for example. There are certain processes which occur during a thunderstorms life cycle that we know happen, however, we don't fully know why certain processes happen the way they do or what is the leading contributor. Tornadogenesis is one...we know the ingredients needed for tornadoes, we know how tornadoes form, but we don't know fully understand why some supercells (which look tornadic based on visual features/radar features) produce tornadoes and others don't...AI isn't going to solve something like that. AI isn't going to tell us this because we don't understand it ourselves and we don't have all the necessary data and measurements to be able to do so. 

But with the phone example, its learning faster because it has a basis to go on...it understands something because that something is known. There are many meteorological processes which we know exist and understand their existence, but don't fully know the why/how.

AI will be a major help though in calculating mathematical/physics calculations much more quickly which will hopefully get us faster model output in the future. 

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why do you have disdain for AI weather models?

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I don’t understand it either. It’s a new tool that should improve over time. Gotta keep pushing forward with progress. Some paths are deadends, but some become the main artery. 

Kind of explained it in a post above but I'll add more.

We should be focusing on the resources needed to better what we currently have instead of just adding more tools to the toolbox. Now, if AI will be used to better the initialization/parameterization process, that would be amazing. But at the end of the day we still need better computing technology (which we have, we just need it within the field). Quantum computing is going to go a sizable way I think here. Parameterize better and improve initialization, those two alone will go a great way in forecast model accuracy and hopefully reduce inconsistency. If AI models are just going to add to the list of potential outcomes and increase uncertainty, then what good is it? 

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I just wasn't sure how they would be dangerous? Unless AI was used to create fakess outputs/forecasts to fool people..which I suppose could be true. 

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Because some people take them as "gospel" ????

Bingo. That's exactly what I could see happening. People in charge of making critical decisions will take AI at face value and that will set the stage for some disastrous decision making. And I'm not even talking in the sense of general public - this could be anything, logistics, supply chain, resource distribution, etc

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree...just read the article about the former member of the Rice University Womens Soccer team.

I am a long time chess player, AI has been a part of the chess world for many years. It is a valuable tool in the chess world...so there are situations where AI can have a positive impact but to your point I agree with you for the most part.

As much as I don't like AI, that doesn't mean I don't believe there is value in it, however, I don't think its value outweighs the "bad" and that's where I see the problem. 

In terms of weather, I think AI could have tremendous value in the nowcasting (<6-12) hour window, particularly when it comes to severe weather and flash flooding potential. In terms though of using AI as like medium/extended range (maybe even short range), I see little value - AI models in this range will not tell us what a great forecaster will not already know. The only way we will ever greatly improve forecasting skill in this range is to better understand how the atmosphere and how it evolves and better understanding physics and processes...then it's taken that and quantifying that numerically so computers can process this information. 

Computer forecast models struggle as you move away from initialization because of compounding error. This was why for a prolonged period of time the euro was by far and away the best, it had superior initialization skill - the euro would have very few error inside of 72 hours which resulted in greater accuracy through 5 to even 7 days. AI isn't going to solve medium-to-long range error or reduce inconsistencies...AI will not do this until we ourselves are better able to understand this and teach the algorithm to do this.  

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Why would AI weather models be dangerous? 

His question was valid given my open disdain about AI weather models lol

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

For some reason Instagram's algorthims likes to suggest me AI videos of morbidly obese people falling through floors. I guarantee a lot of people think this stuff is real, especially the grandpas/grandmas. 

Those float around Facebook too...and there's this huge circulation too of videos of like destructive weather or chain reaction accidents. I guess at least there is wording that says, "This is AI generated and only for your entertainment" but it's stupid and dangerous. 

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Are you referring to AI in general or only to the AI weather models?

AI in general. 

It's scary what can be done and so quickly. A friend of mine and I took a picture together at a Wolf Pack game on opening night and one of our friends made some AI video of it in two seconds and it was not something rather appropriate...and it looked very real. 

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

So much fake AI shit now, it’s over the top. 

This is getting out of hand and becoming dangerous very quickly. 

I mostly use social media nowadays for sports news/rumors but even those are a joke. There is this stupid Boston page that does does for Bruins/Red Sox and the authors are a bunch of click bait tools with their ridiculous titles. I wish it could be blocked from my google searches for news/rumors. I'd also like to tell them off. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I forget some stuff...especially over the off season. I find myself reading some of my old material to get reacclimated...no better way to reorient yourself with material than having it presented in a way that is uniquely tailored for your own understanding....I am probably best suited to author those works. haha.

The other great part of blogging and posting your reasoning for forecasts is you have something to look back on. This is why I wish I was more active with blogging but really dropped off over the last several years. So I try to rely somewhat on memory which isn't always the best metric. But when I'm forecasting I will try to think of not necessarily similar events but I try and visualize what the response will be to certain things.

One thing I learned from Ekster way back to the eastern days was (and this is about thunderstorms) to try and visualize how a thunderstorm will respond to the environment it is in. But I try and extrapolate this concept across weather phenomena. With winter storms, I always try and paint a picture in my head of how the radar presentation will look at how it will evolve based on how the atmosphere is evolving. This concept has really helped me produce some solid snowfall forecasts over the years, but (in the cast of this past storm), if I am underplaying/overplaying certain aspects I will be way off.   

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt...I just do the blog because the writing keeps me sharp.

That's precisely the reason I love blogging too. It help keeps my sharp and I kind of use it as a way of talking to myself to ensure I am understanding of what's going on meteorologically (under the hood). 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every year I get excited to see that the weather will be like around Xmas in the hopes that we'll get something that leave everyone stranded at grandma's, but that hopeful period  of blissful ignorance is just about over.

Yup. 

I know every now and then we all debate on would you rather have one big monster storm for the winter and little outside of that or a winter which is composed of many, but small events. There was a time I would have preferred the former, but I think I would prefer the later (I mean the true preference would be many smaller storms but a few big monsters lol). In general, winter and cold suck...but getting snow makes it tolerable. Give me several 2-5" events and winter will be more fun to deal with

Can we just get like 5-6 more systems like this past Saturday, except maybe a few inches beefier? 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I find myself challenged for time this year because the family is home and I have 4 kids aged 1-6, so sometimes my results will reflect that a bit. Not to make excuses....I still should have trusted my work and stuck to my guns more.

It's not an excuse...it's just a product of life. Even myself I wish I got to be a bit more invested with local forecasts. But I have to do forecasts for all over the country and its not really forecasting for people so I don't get to do specific forecasts like this (making snowfall maps/forecasts for example). I just do this for fun...but I am so tired after work stuff I barely have the energy to do these maps/forecasts/blog posts. I've been wanting to switch and do videos but I am not a technological person or meant to be heard (why I didn't pursue broadcasting lol). But for my severe weather class this past semester, we had to do a video presentation for our final project and as part of the class I got camtasia which is super easy to use...so I may switch from written blogs to video...might be easier/less time consuming. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I only did one map for this....I def would have went 2-5" down there had I updated Saturday because almost did on Friday....but guidance was awful Friday, I got scared a bit....the 2-4" was still aggressive then.

I think what you put forth was pretty damn good as what did 4 Seasons and Seymour. I wouldn't even be surprised if some or a chunk of the snow reports were inflated a tad (by like 0.5"), if people measured in the grass when you also account for fluff factor. When I was driving along 84 yesterday, the stretches of median which are flat and grassy...you could easily see grass poking through. It wasn't until like towards Waterbury/Route 8 where that wasn't the case (especially closer to Seymour/Ansonia).  

But these maps are pretty damn good. There will always be some that end up along the upper end of the range or just over and some that end up along the lower end or just a tad under

3 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is a preliminary first pass snowfall totals for CT. Once i get the totals from cocorahs/coop today ill update the map and be doing a full SNE one and Tri-State. I tried to include all the reports from here as well as filter out all the old reports. If anyone has any corrections, concerns or violent reactions let me know and ill take a look into it. There were a lot of reports from the same town or very close to each other so i had to leave some out. Thanks to everyone who sent me a report. I might change the ranges from 0-1/1-2/2-4/4-6 to 0-1/1-3/3-6 for the final map to make things a little easier and because there are a lot of 2"+ reports mixed in around the 1-2" reports. This is also the second 3"+ event of the season so it will make it into the WS Archive with radar/sfc/h5/snowfall maps when they come available. 

BDR-4.5, BDL-1.4, ORH-1.6, PVD-1.6, BOS-1.3

The forecast overall was pretty good albeit a little conservative. I'll give it a B+. We did highlight the possibility of 4"+ on the extreme S coast so that worked out well. All of the southern 4 counties verified advisory level snow with generally 3-6" and 1-3" mainly for the northern 4 counties. Lowest report was E. Hartland at 0.8" and the highest 5.5" in Norwalk. @Sey-Mour Snow

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/verification-for-festive-sunday-snowfall.html

B+

 

Great calls! Ryan had a great forecast for CT too. Edit: Looking back at some posts FXWX had a great call too.