weatherwiz

Tensions are building. I foresee an all out brawl in here come December. Hell in a Cell style. Will be carnage everywhere 

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

'normal' is a result of all events mixed together.   Conceptually, even bone-heads ( well.. not Trump supporters) can see that the odds of any future event landing a result squarely on a number that is a mix of everything is thus remote.  That means that actually hitting an arbitrarily occurring value dead on whatever that normal value is, is no different than the Lotto.  Very low odds.  Basically ... everything that occurs in nature, perhaps well over 90% likelihood, is going to be ABnormal.  This is particularly true for decimals (to the right) of the whole number - the more of them ... the more likely you will not ever see a 'normal' daily high temperature.  The significance of the abnormality is what is really needed to be evaluated for that ... we can rely in large part on common sense.  If the normal is 82 and it is 104 that quite dope-slapping obviously more significant that 82.1. 

But it sounds like y'all could use a refresh, or perhaps a first time introduction to what is known in statistical science as 'Chi-Square test'.  A formula that produces a rational value, then interpretive as a method for determining if the frequency differs from expected result and by how much.

It looks like this ...  

                                                                                                         (  ...that outta clear things up )

 

 

 

Did a few assignments in my Quantitative Analysis class using R recently. Fun stuff...interesting programming language. 

We gots ourselves a TOR in Maine

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Inclined to agree with skepticism there.   We have been dealing with this since last October...  a basal trough that at times we see ridging, but we return to this footprint since prior to the ENSO switch onset. 

Most importantly, warm(cool) ENSO onset in summer isn't triggering much in the hemisphere.  The hemispheric/seasonal cooling from N latitudes establishes improving gradient is autumn -that is when that forcing commences.  To early. 

I could see more of an argument if we were seeing something more anomalous like a barrage of like cutoff lows or something along the lines of a tendency for omega-block patterns (just using these as random examples) but this recent stretch of rains has been the product of slow moving frontal systems and warm front progression...kind of par of the course for mid-summer.  

Certainly may see a few localized strong storms east of the river today 

Not really sure how you can attribute this to ENSO. I mean there are just synoptic fronts moving through and getting heavy rains from the warm front and then scattered convection out ahead of the cold front. Unless there is an argument these are more common during summers with a developing EL Nino but these setups aren't uncommon during the summer months.

Sharon, CT heads up soon

Rain is absolutely nuts here

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where exactly is the warm front located? Mesoanalysis has it north but surface obs look like it somewhere stuck in S central CT.

I think its hung up in central CT...probably very close to BDL 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

You think we all get hit again later?

Its worth watching. Much different versus Saturday. Per mesoanalysis any CIN from the rain moving through has essentially eroded and instability is building quickly. Just have to probably push the warm front a little more east but western areas definitely need to watch this given how radar is unfolding. Pushing 1500 J MLCAPE into SW CT with 200 m2s2 of effective SRH. 

Might have to consider a TOR watch at this point. Everything blossoming is rotating 

one reported on the ground northeast of Scranton 

ramping up the TORs in NY

watch be coming soon for western CT

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Scary look for Oxford and areas that got crushed two years ago, heaviest rain since then. 

It's a good thing there is minimal sfc instability or at the least sfc parcels aren't getting to the LFC. Also, thats some pretty hefty ZDR values around Monroe to Seymour to Oxford...definitely some FF concern 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I'm not sure how this one isn't warned while we have a polygon extending all the way up to Ridgefield for a storm in White Plains. 

there was an even a report of wind damage in Shrub Oak, NY near Putnam Valley 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That storm near Carmel, NY absolutely needs a warning. 

It has a nice mid-level mesocyclone. If there was a bit more sf instability that would probably try producing. I wouldn't be shocked if some wind damage reports came in but perhaps its still a bit elevated so wind isn't mixing down. But there's also a big increase in lightning...a sign this is strengthening 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a warning for that storm 

warning went out for that after my post, but that is for the cell south of the one I was referring too 

maybe because its a bit elevated but surprised no warning or at least a SPS on that cell heading towards Fairfield County/Danbury...decent wind signature on velocity 

Could be a nice line that organizes early tomorrow afternoon for E CT and points east

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Maybe it's just me but this summer seems to have flown by.

Same here. I feel like I didn't even really get to enjoy the summer. I regret not setting up shop outside and working like I did the past few summers. But I got myself one of those towers with 3 monitors hooked up and it would have just been a pain to bring that outside each day/inside and then the power strip. But its been work/summer classes so haven't been able to do much. I try and sit outside during the evenings but we get destroyed with mosquitos. 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Today is the climo warmest day for CON. All downhill from here…sadly.

Already dealing with the later sunrises and the earlier sunsets are getting noticeable too, it blows. 

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

OK I missed the post. Was just checking out some of the 6z ensemble means. I don't doubt it will get warmer, but a bit skeptical on the magnitude/duration

Yeah the duration is certainly a question, but then again, duration of higher heat events is always trickly here just because of our geographical proximity to Canada and vulnerability of fronts moving through. I guess the question would be, do any fronts completely alter the pattern or would it just be a case of multiple days of average temps before we blow another warm front through and bring in another round of heat? 

Magnitude isa challenge too, but that is a very large plume of ~+25C 850 temps being modeled into the OV...doesn't take much to really break some of that off and send it our way, especially ahead of a front or even build the airmass in if ridging expands east.

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Doesn't look like a huge signal to me, though I suppose it could get a bit more humid than it is now. 

Tip made a post on it yesterday, but you can see signals in that likelihood. Matches up kind of well too climatologically where we can get big (kind of final) big heat pushes in early August. The longevity of it though will certainly be a question given the continued theme for troughing to our northwest, but if anything that at least keeps the door open for cold fronts/convective potential

Higher heat and humidity will be building in through the first week of August.