weatherwiz

wish this was just a few hours later but yeah maybe farther east has a slim shot

Beautiful day indeed 

Home opener for the Wolf Pack in Hartford tonight, couldn't ask for a better day  

A vigorous shortwave trough crosses the region late Sunday night and Monday with strong cold front and triple point moving across the region Monday morning. This system will be characterized by a potent 80+ knot mlvl jet streak and 60-70+ knots of bulk shear overspreading the region to go along with steeping mid-level lapse rates associated with cooling temperatures aloft. Out ahead of the shortwave trough, a strong southerly flow will develop pumping in an unseasonably moist low-level air mass. 

The combination of an unseasonably moist low-level airmass combined with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (~ 6.5 C/KM) should yield upwards of 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Bulk shear values in excess of 60-70 knots combined with vigorous forcing will likely promote a squall line consisting of heavy rain, thunder/lightning, and strong-to-damaging wind gusts along the leading edge, moving across the region early-to-late morning Monday. Forecast soundings exhibit enough low-level turning, particularly in the vicinity of the triple point to warrant potential for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes. 

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Windsor Locks 1979 part II?

Always amazes me how everything perfectly aligned to produce such a violent tornado. And add in the fact that it was a left moving supercell. The odds of such an occurrence have to be insane. 

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

No! I want to golf. 

may have to reschedule  

But this is a pretty intriguing setup. Triple point crossing the region with steep mid-level lapse rates and a surge of higher theta-e air. 

Definitely becoming more intrigued with early Monday morning, particularly out towards eastern sections. Could see a narrow stretch of wind damage and maybe a tornado 

18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I thought slightly AN. Too bullish on the peak, but nailed the big lull and when the tropics would heat up. It was a pretty big comeback but this season never had the runway others did. 

Yeah you had a pretty solid call I'd say and really nailed that big lull which is big kudos. 

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Going to make my 10a tournament in Dover, NH interesting.

The timing on this has slowed quite a bit. Going to be one heck of a squall going across the region. 

Man that is a violent shortwave coming through early Monday. 

Tropical isn't really a high knowledgeable area of mine, but I thought coming into the season it wasn't going to be a hyperactive season just going off the basics. I think sometimes with this advance in technology and models there is too much infatuation with models and their outputs. Reading the seasonal outlooks from NOAA/Colorado, they always mention how simulations are ran hundreds or thousands of times...sometimes you just have to use the basics and knowledge.   

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends what is meant by the bold ( for me - )

Snow advances ... that's just seasonally unavoidable.  But, not all years observe this normalcy the same way.  They all tend ( or used to before perhaps 25 years ago), end up around the same cryospheric state by mid Februaries ... but the autumnal d(cryo)/dt (speed of recovery) I have found is more correlated to ensuing winter temperature biases over Canada ( and by circumstance of proximity ... affecting the U.S.)

Faster tended to be colder Mt-WI-NY-NS

Slower tended to be more variable .. ( don't wanna say "warm" here because that word is very relative circa Jan 25th at Tower Minnesota)

So stating the obvious... cold is intrinsic to snow.  Gee ya think-

But what's interesting about this is that the correlation has been not as good over the last decade ... It's complex, but I suspect the warming polar summer states are setting favorable frameworks abrupt behavior in recovery times - so it's artificially ( so to speak...) lending to impressive d(cryo)/dt.  

... Like everything being effected by the CC one-eyed monster, the predictability of any domain in question tends to be the first aspects to get f'ed.

So the simplest version of all this, yes the d(cryo)/dt is impressive, this year, but - for me - it could be construed as more impressive in say, 1995 than it really is in 2025.

*But* ( ... to add even more to this "popcycle" headache - ), it's not just the land snow.  I noticed, back mid to late August that that he rate of sea-ice loss was slower than the last several years...  That was unexpected, particularly when we just came off the 2023 piss in the oceanic jacuzzi historic globally historic year so recently.  Interesting...  Anyway, the seasonal nadir appeared to also happen about 10 days to 2 weeks earlier than the last several years ( using Climate Reanalyzer), and has shown also that seasonal recovery behaves to do so more meaningfully, sooner and perhaps faster.   This below is an example of how the scalar value, still being low, belies the character/behavior of the system, which is perhaps better exposed by evaluating the deltas

What adds more interest to this IMO is it seems a lot of "correlations" we had been very familiar with have diminished over the past decade-plus as well. Now, the easy answer here is that is just a product of increasing our sample size (data set). This is likely certainly a factor, but how strong of a factor? But I suspect something else is going on too...and the way to come to that conclusion is when you break everything down into how we understand things and basic principles and you're getting results that don't make sense. 

also, if I understand correctly, the correlation is geared more towards the evolution of the AO? Lots of influences on the state and evolution of the AO, especially stratospheric processes. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the "fraudulent" claims are too far on the other end...like most elements of research concerning seasoncal forecating, it's importance was initially overstated due to a combination of our lust for skill in this arena combined with today's overzealous portrayal on social media. It has it's value if used properly in concert with a multitude of other factors, but said value was undoubtedly intially overstated. I usually give it a shout out near the end of the polar section of my final outlook, but it's more of a confidence bolsterer/voice of dissent. It's not the basies of the forecast, nor should it be for anyone.

Perfectly stated 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More voodoo.

The snow cover advance has to be one of the biggest frauds out there. 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pitchers and catchers report in 119 days

I'm ready! 

A bit over two months until the sun starts setting later. Stuff that in your Halloween bags  

GFS could be a decent fall severe weather event with several tornadoes for western and central PA Sunday. Could see a solid line of storms move across here overnight. 

Could be interesting for a few hours early AM from just north of Los Angeles to just north of San Diego 

Small plane crashed on I95 in Dartmouth looks like around 9 AM

A widespread 5-6'' is going to be tough to come by I think because once occlusion occurs smaller-scale processes will then factor into where any heavier rain occurs, but a widespread 2-4" I think is very doable. I would not be surprised though to see some 6-8" amounts locally, particularly along the coast (but a bit inland). Probably see a secondary max too up north across east facing slopes 

One big difference of note too is the timing. Window for some of the worst weather was more Sunday...Sunday night, maybe early Monday morning but the NAM would have this occur more during the day Monday. Not sure how much I buy into the NAM evolution though. 

Something to watch though is potential for elevated convection from southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and far eastern Mass. Elevated convection typically not favorable for producing wind, however, because of the strong llvl jet any elevated convection would surely help mix down some of that llvl jet. 

I could see gusts 55-65 mph along the immediate coast with sustained winds 25-35ish. It will be windy inland due to the pressure gradient but I don't think we'll see much in the way of higher wind gusts. Probably wouldn't even really see any gusts above 30-35.

The initial rainfall rates are going to be insane. 

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Their ideas are so wishy washy on how they classify stuff… it’s pathetic. 

sometimes the consistency is a bit bizarre 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because all hell would break loose doing anything close to classifying a system tropical near the east coast. 

Fair point. Stupid 

yeah it starts out warm core but then transitions quickly. probably why nhc doesn't have a little lemon but then again they do for that feature near the Azores and gave it an Invest

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS members have a bunch tucking in just south of LI. That would be a hell of a storm.

some strong members too. coastal flooding would be quite significant. probably numerous power outages too from Long Island...probably even coastal SNE. 

Definitely a back off of these winds across southern CT (at least on the 6z GFS).