weatherwiz

I need around 84-85” to hit 100” so really need these next few weeks to step it up 

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

The iPhone weather app. I have no idea where they’re getting those numbers from.

It is best not to tempt normies with these speculative forecasts because they will spread it like wildfire.

yup...iPhone weather app. He just told me.

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Which app is doing that Wiz?

I'll ask him. He lives near Boston so I'm guessing its for Boston area but for Sunday, January 25 it says 15-18" for total snowfall for the day  

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Doesn’t help that the general public already is expecting a monster snow storm either. Weather apps idk which one are calling for 14-17” for CT. And social media is already talking about it. 

I had a friend send me a screen shot of this earlier saying, "wtf" 

Leaning in the direction of suppression for here but holy hell is this going to be extremely high impact across the mid South and probably even to the Gulf Coast again. If I was in say Houston I would be very concerned again for a significant ice storm...seeing the GFS as cold as it is with that boundary nearby...raises big concerns. GFS has often in the past been one of the last to catch up to the extent of llvl cold down there with these Arctic fronts 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So for The4seasins…are we giving him total from sat and Sunday? Or does he want distinct amounts from both days? 

my guess would be distinct amounts from both days since these were separate systems 

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

lol thanks i was like huh, he must have read that wrong

I sure did...I was reading it while eating breakfast and making coffee lol. 

I just want to de-clothe and lay in the middle of the yard

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It allowed the trees to keep all snow - photogenic scenes out there for all.  Now that the light is hitting the trees I captured this..

Just a reminder how bad it’s been for us. I moved here in 2018.. 8 years and I’ve never had back to back months over 8” of snow until the last 2 months. 13.4” December and 9.6” January - 23.0” on the season 

Everything is just caked and snow and has been since about late Saturday morning. Almost to the point where another probably 2-3 inches of this and we'd be seeing some limbs break off and probably power outages. I can't remember the last time it was really this photogenic outside...in fact, its like pictures don't even do the true justice. This is probably how it looks like in parts of Alaska all winter long. 

9 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i know, i was just asking what you were using in that image you posted, it must have been max temp.

i dont see how to adjust the max temp, its just button you click, theres no options. you can adjust fixed ratios but thats it. maybe you're using a newer version but from what i can tell Bukit19 is the latest version. 

My bad  totally misunderstood.

I was actually using cobb11 in that screen shot

You're right...its not the max temp you can adjust, its the fixed ratio. 

Can’t ask for a more wintry look then this 

About 2.5” here from evening/overnight. 
 

6.5” between the 2 days 

9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

ALY radar is quite surprising. That burst of moderate to heavy over the capital district into SVT was poorly modeled 

Solid 700-500mb fronto setting up there

This was an absolutely confidence boost in taking AI more seriously in the medium range. Now, we can't assume that AI is just going to nail the medium range but the value this could provide is huge. Inside of 48 hours we just continue relying on the mesos and.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I am a fan of that WCB stuff south of LI not really bulging north. Almost wants to slide east. Hope that stuff in NJ blossoms.

We'll see what happens. This is one of the more nail biting nowcast situations in a while. Hopefully that area of 700 fronto along Long Island is some indication of where we'll get better banding developing later and hints at stuff blossoming farther north and west.

850mb fronto is getting there so we should at least continue seeing precip blossom across the region later on

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening. 

Yeah any warning amounts would probably be too isolated or localized to really justify a warning. 

This evening is going to be fun and across a large area. I really feel like this could overperform somewhere and we could see some 7-10" totals, especially if we get a good mlvl fronto band to setup. As Ray has mentioned multiple times, the late closing off at 850 is a little concerning but bufkit soundings are pretty damn good looking. 

This is 16z HRRR for ORH. While I would like to see some lower omega values to consider rates at or exceeding 1.5" the depth of the DGZ and likely efficiency of the snow growth could make this very possible. 

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

According to HRRR, radar should start blossoming in Jersey between 1-2pm and start heading NE.

can see cloud tops cooling down near the Delmarva 

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what I was talking about earlier on a lot of these runs this evening. That heavier stuff is slamming the DGZ pretty hard…this is the latest hrrr but NAM has been showing it pretty consistently for several hours….so there could be some pretty efficient QPF to accumulation ratios if that pans out (and as a rule, you can lower that DGZ a little for us in SNE since we tend to have a lot of salt nuclei in the clouds here versus much of the country further away from the ocean)

12z NAM looks solid for BOS this evening

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

What are you using Cobb11? im assuming not maxT in profile which is kuchera. 

If referring to bufkit, both are separate. If you’re using cobb11 it’s deriving the snow ratios from 5 or 6 products. 

If you choose maxT in profile you can adjust the max temp to compute different ratios 

Coating down so far 

3 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

Skies have gone and our temp has dropped to 27⁰...went for a walk, all the wet snow has become quite fluffy. Our open field had an eerie fog developing.

Noticed the same thing driving home earlier

Just going through some bufkit soundings but here is New Haven, CT

1. You can see the deep DGZ but also look at the time period around that AM stuff...ratios up around 20:1 with some strong lift then again during the evening. If this morning band verifies snow rates could approach 1-1.5" per hour

Anxiously awaiting the 0z NAM bufkit. 

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s my thought process . Just hoping it ends up somewhere in my 4-8” zone

I'd feel confident about that should this occur. Starting to think it is gaining more legs though