weatherwiz

Just now, Spanks45 said:

hopefully not congrats Powderfreak....I definitely do not want sleet @ 12 degrees

I don't think we would see any scenario where anyone has to worry about sleet. Any concern would be more related to subsidence 

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the euro gets N stream involved but not as deeply as some of the other solutions. It’s not quite as slow. It’s still enough for a solid SNE hit but it left some on the table. But it’s more than enough to work with at D5-6

Verbatim I think the Euro has the look of what would result in  significant snow band well into SNE

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bottom line is the OP GFS is on an island and that is a good thing right now. Every other piece of medium range guidance has significant accumulating snow into SNE. 

Not speaking for our region necessarily but I've found the GFS to really struggle in these setups. This is going to be like the 5th winter in a row with a major winter storm event across a large part of the deep South...IIRC with these previous years the Euro crushed the GFS, both in lead time and event evolution. Not sure what it means here exactly but when you see how the Euro tries evolving this later in the weekend, I think it bodes more well versus not for us

That is gotta be closing in on one of the most devastating ice storms on record for parts of the mid-Atlantic there into GA where they CAD well. 

Something to be extremely careful with and I've seen a bit of this on X is you have to be extremely careful just using QPF trends as a means of seeking out north/south trends. Ultimately, that is a practice that shouldn't be used in the first place but that holds especially true in this setup. there are many other factors at play with this which will impact QPF...not just total QPF but northward extent of QPF. You can increase the dynamics and forcing aloft WITHOUT having a bump north in the sfc low which can result in both increasing the QPF and blossoming QPF north. 

There is room for a quite a bit of PVA into the region with favorable upper-level dynamics and we may continue to see increasing QPF into the region which is independent of storm track

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@40/70 Benchmark define huge.  Also You'd have to imagine there will be a rogue 10-20" band displaced well north of forecast, maybe you'll get thrown a bone for a change and cash in on that.. 

There would be a good chance for a heavy band well north 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, a couple days ago…it looked like a straight forward big overrunning deal.  That’s not completely the case anymore.  So it has trended into something more complex. 

Which I don't think should have been a big surprise. That's how these setups tend to typically evolve. This is a setup in which I am very curious how the AI camp would perform...there is alot of physics at play here and even the traditional modeling can struggle in that sense...not to the fault of the models but more of a product of just a lack of more powerful computing (que quantum computing). 

If I had to guess, I think we continue seeing more bumps...I don't see a whole lot arguing for keeping this too far south (big change from what I was thinking a day or two ago).

Where convection develops and blossoms too is going to play a big role in where sfc low either re-develops or rapidly begins to strengthen. If convection can develop rapidly off the SC coast and be more consolidated (MCS like) this would bode very well for pumping up heights northeast of it. I kind of think this may be in the ballpark of what the 0z Euro was doing...but there is also the whole northern branch to consider. There is just so many moving pieces with this and so many smaller scale processes which are going to play big roles. 

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I feel like we have said, “the northern push will be under modeled” we have also said, “the confluence will be under modeled”. I’m not sure what will be more favored with this setup, What’ll it be boys? 

Confluence is always a PITA to forecast but I think right now, I would favor a track more north. As modeled, the bulk of the confluence being more north I think favors potential for additional northern pushes. But we also have room to continue building the heights northeast of this. The degree and intensity of CAD into the mid-Atlantic may also play a big factor 

Should also see some squalls move across the region tomorrow...particularly along the Mass Pike. Timing late afternoon and evening 

The biggest challenge in all of this is going to be how far south the Arctic boundary can get before stalling. This is always a big challenge...the past several winters dealing with these scenarios I think there has been a tendency for models to be not aggressive enough with how far into the South the boundary gets. Also, in this case it is very feasible the sfc front gets deeper into the South while say front around 850 is held back as it pushes against stronger mid-level ridging from the strong ridging east of Florida. This would play a big role in where cyclogenesis ultimately develops but looking at the pattern over the Northeast I think we would stand a good shot at building this north enough to at least get a significant event to the coast. 

One thing to watch too is this will likely heavy (heavy) precip well north of the sfc low...more north than you would typically expect

This is definitely concerning in terms of a widespread ice storm within the mid-South, however, with that the north trends that have been ongoing are very noteworthy and should not be dismissed. I would not be surprised if the sfc low actually developed a bit faster and farther west than what the GFS had (6z run). It might be difficult for interior but coastal New England could be in play for some significant snows 

I need around 84-85” to hit 100” so really need these next few weeks to step it up 

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

The iPhone weather app. I have no idea where they’re getting those numbers from.

It is best not to tempt normies with these speculative forecasts because they will spread it like wildfire.

yup...iPhone weather app. He just told me.

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Which app is doing that Wiz?

I'll ask him. He lives near Boston so I'm guessing its for Boston area but for Sunday, January 25 it says 15-18" for total snowfall for the day  

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Doesn’t help that the general public already is expecting a monster snow storm either. Weather apps idk which one are calling for 14-17” for CT. And social media is already talking about it. 

I had a friend send me a screen shot of this earlier saying, "wtf" 

Leaning in the direction of suppression for here but holy hell is this going to be extremely high impact across the mid South and probably even to the Gulf Coast again. If I was in say Houston I would be very concerned again for a significant ice storm...seeing the GFS as cold as it is with that boundary nearby...raises big concerns. GFS has often in the past been one of the last to catch up to the extent of llvl cold down there with these Arctic fronts 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So for The4seasins…are we giving him total from sat and Sunday? Or does he want distinct amounts from both days? 

my guess would be distinct amounts from both days since these were separate systems 

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

lol thanks i was like huh, he must have read that wrong

I sure did...I was reading it while eating breakfast and making coffee lol. 

I just want to de-clothe and lay in the middle of the yard

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It allowed the trees to keep all snow - photogenic scenes out there for all.  Now that the light is hitting the trees I captured this..

Just a reminder how bad it’s been for us. I moved here in 2018.. 8 years and I’ve never had back to back months over 8” of snow until the last 2 months. 13.4” December and 9.6” January - 23.0” on the season 

Everything is just caked and snow and has been since about late Saturday morning. Almost to the point where another probably 2-3 inches of this and we'd be seeing some limbs break off and probably power outages. I can't remember the last time it was really this photogenic outside...in fact, its like pictures don't even do the true justice. This is probably how it looks like in parts of Alaska all winter long. 

9 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i know, i was just asking what you were using in that image you posted, it must have been max temp.

i dont see how to adjust the max temp, its just button you click, theres no options. you can adjust fixed ratios but thats it. maybe you're using a newer version but from what i can tell Bukit19 is the latest version. 

My bad  totally misunderstood.

I was actually using cobb11 in that screen shot

You're right...its not the max temp you can adjust, its the fixed ratio. 

Can’t ask for a more wintry look then this 

About 2.5” here from evening/overnight. 
 

6.5” between the 2 days