weatherwiz

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well... The first 9 days have been super cold, and if this does pan out, it looks like it would only pan out for less than a week. If that. This map looks kind of odd to me though. Having the whole continental United States and half of Eastern Canada this warm doesn't make any sense. It just doesn't look right to me, but what do I know.

Well this is just an anomaly map...these colors don't necessarily mean "warm", especially this time of year. It's relative to climo. So for like NNE...its still going to be cold or chilly but a bit above of what it should be for the time of year. 

I guess one big question when comparing this stretch of subpar winters versus stretches of subpar winters historically is, are the reasonings similar or are there glaring differences? For example, (as mentioned earlier), if our snowfall is more correlated to precipitation versus temperature and historically, our subpar winters occurred with winter which were abnormally dry, but our subpar winters now are occurring with average-to-above average precipitation, well then there clearly is a differentiator. Where subpar winters historically connected to periods of faster flow aloft, lack of storms, suppression, etc. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there will be a break, and perhaps a protracted one at that, but I don't see an early end to winter.

If people are upset with the pattern and how things have done so far then they should be hoping for this break IMO. If this pattern sucks as some say...well the best way to get out of that is to break it and thats what we would be doing towards the end of the month. But I don't see anything signaling we flip to prolonged riding. But...I will say, I don't think it can totally be tossed out. Let's say the Arctic becomes unfavorable and we get a stronger PV that contracts...we open the flood gates for the jet to retract northward and get a milder, zonal flow across the country. Not saying that happens but it was a concern I had a few months back based on how the PAC had looked.

We were bound to get some ridging and warmer temperatures at some point. That doesn't mean winter is done or winter is over. 

The good news is any ridging that period should be short-lived and looks like the pattern is re-loading as well. Maybe in some way this will help set things up more favorably moving into January. 

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later.  Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

I think this goes to show that even ensembles have their biases and limitations. At that range, it's all we really have but these patterns we have been in, sometimes smoothing and just averaging isn't really going to tell the true story. But at that range...nothing else we can really do or utilize so just have to roll with it and proceed with caution. 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually a nice look for SE MA. 

Looks fine to me...even around MA Pike 

I was hoping to see some CAPE modeled 

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I miss the old days of little access to models, things were more of a surprise when they happened and less of a disappointment when they didn't. I mean, I know I am the same way, I might get 12 inches of snow, but feel empty because the models were showing 18....before I feel like I can't enjoy the fact that it is snowing most of the time because expectations take over. Sure I could just leave the board and stay away from the models 4 times per day, but it is an addiction with no help, lol

That's the thing too...there are way too many products out there (which are not even NCEP products, just derived products from 3rd party vendors) which everyone flocks too and leads to unnecessary hype and unrealistic expectations. This includes snow maps, precipitation type maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, etc. If snow maps were never created, probably 85% of extended storms would garner little interest outside of the, "Oh look the GFS has an HECS at D10". Now, folks see a 8 day 24 HR snow map which 20-30 inches and all of a sudden, "there's a real threat". Same goes with severe...so many events in the midwest now are labeled with having potential to produce numerous tornadoes and strong/violent tornadoes because STP is forecast to be 5 or SCP is forecast to be 20. 

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d love to see snowfall through this date with these types of departures in other years. Bet it isn’t 0

Snowfall though is generally more tied into precipitation departures versus temperature departures at our latitude...though there are exceptions to this too. Right now we are in a snow drought cycle so correlations will be weaker, but once we get back on track for a several year stretch, you will notice the correlation to snowfall is quite high with regard to precipitation anomalies versus temperature.

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's the most important sentence. I don't think anyone would say this if fast flow led to numerous minor to moderate events over the last few years. We let the past cloud our judgement in the present. What makes us think that a slower pattern wouldn't lead us to the very same desolate road SNE has been on through the 2020s? Sure, maybe it would enhance the odds of phasing, but that doesn't mean it'd phase where we need it, and where we need it to can be very different depending on where you sit in this region.

We'd just be placing the meteorological risk of a fail in a different basket. Winter tracking is brutal because all of us have our biases and defense mechanisms whether they are external or internal. 

It's always been about snow. It will always be about snow. Snow rules everything around us. 

But that's just the thing...fast flows are unlikely to leas to numerous moderate events and even minor ones seem difficult to come by and are typically regulated to either far interior or elevation (depending on thermal profile). But this is the point I am getting at which Ray alluded too. We keep putting hope in these will work out but there are meteorological reasons (which Ray pointed out) which explain why that more often than not, they just aren't going to work out. 

I also don't necessarily think its a concept of letting the past cloud our judgement in the present, but more of a product of better understanding the atmosphere and how it works. Think of how many forecasts there have been these last few winters with maps getting tossed out 3 days in advance with big calls and everyone getting hyped up over amped solutions...then well inside the 3 days the models back off and all of a sudden snowfall maps are being lowered and lowered...right up to the day of the storm. Understanding this type of regime and the bias to amp in the medium range, as a forecaster, you would develop a sense of playing it more safe versus going aggressive, knowing there is a decent chance the models back off. 

But historically a slower pattern with less energy does yield much higher odds and probabilities. This holds true during the severe season too (out west). When you have troughs digging across the Plains but with tons of shortwaves...that tends to lead to destructive interference and hinder what appears to be an environment favorable for numerous supercells and tornadoes (because STP/SCP are off the charts) and the forecasts busts. 

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It doesn't help that the past 4 years have been below to insanely below average, getting porked in every possible way. And here we are again finding new ways to miss snow, so definitely a lot of angst in SNE for sure. I understand why meteorologically we are missing out, but never realized that for an area that averages 45-50 inches per year that we have to get lucky, just to hit average. I always assumed that it was the other way around, 2014/15 was luck....hopefully we snap out of it soon and we end up running the table the rest of the year, but the hangover from the past 4 years is hanging on and will be tough to snap out of

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this. 

Yeah its way too early to be cancelling anything. I mean what's climo right now...probably ranging from 2-5" and of course probably even under 2" closer towards the coast. Not having snow on the ground on Dec. 9 doesn't mean winter is cancelled or winter will be bad.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m not really trying to quantify it. I’m just thinking H5 shortwaves and vortmaxes and where they tend to move through the eastern US.

But when I see this south of the Delmarva in early December, with cold in place, I just think of it as in the southerly extreme of probable outcomes.

Makes total sense...that's along the lines of what I was figuring you were getting at. 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Luck, probability, whatever you want to call it…it’s that.

Obviously some winters have patterns more conducive to enhanced wintry threats and some don’t. But in the end I put them on a normalized curve. Most seasons fall +/- 1SD of the mean (I’m talking threats…not snowfall which is skewed). Then you gets seasons where it feels like everything hits and seasons where it feels like everything misses.

But there’s nothing that climatologically favors the Mid Atlantic over us. Sure, there’s some patterns where it can because of significant suppression, but they’re just getting a little lucky right now (which feels like bad luck to SNE).

I like this idea of assessment here. Focus on potential versus snowfall. 

But I guess one challenge with using something as potential threats...I feel like that can be quite subjective. There would have to be solid baseline definition of what is defined as a possible threat. But I would certainly prefer to measure a season on potential events and number of events versus something like snowfall alone.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The fast flow makes us more prone to bad luck because it disrupts attempts as phasing (suppression), and disrupts blocking (cutters/huggers).

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Seems we are in a warm/wet, cold/dry type pattern in SNE. 42 and rain tomorrow followed by frigid temps, again. SMH

Exactly why we need to get back to patterns which are southern stream dominant with weaker northern streams which phase in...bring back the storms riding up the coast. Forget this whole "we can do well in northern stream" crap. Maybe there was a winter or two where it worked out and that's what people cling too...just like for the longest time everyone was obsessed with weak La Nina's because of 1995-1996. 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So what you’re saying is that there are no opportunities for us in SNE, but every other part of the country has opportunities?  I mean it’s literally snowing all around us. At some point Paul…it’s hard to escape everything.  It could happen, but I don’t think it’s smart to say there aren’t any opportunities, or they(the opportunities) aren’t there.  

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. 

There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. 

We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I had the times of the rises and sets, and I thought I remember seeing it was Jan 3rd or 4th…but the days are still shortening for anther couple weeks yet. 

you're right.

January 5th is the latest sunrise (~7:19 AM) then it gets earlier from there.

Its like the 10th/11th when we start gaining by the minutes 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I loathe the fast flow overall for SNE, but I'd rather have that with plenty of opportunities for something than tracking one shortwave every 10 days. 

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. 

There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there. 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

More than that…I believe it’s not until like 1/3 or so when we start to gain in the morning. 
Ya, enjoy the extra 3 or 4 seconds this afternoon…it’ll go by fast. 

I think its even later than that actually...like closer to Jan 10?

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man where has this been all my life? We need more stations with cams. Maine has a ton. 
https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-73.6621,41.75626,-69.34447,46.42395

This is sick 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is near 50 here Wednesday. 

Will feel like summer 

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hockey players are a different breed. Ease him back in.

Challenge is the schedule has been absolutely insane with the league having to adjust for the two week break. Maybe play him every other game or something. But with the way the D has been crushed with injuries I don’t think they can afford to have him just play 10-15 minutes a game 

5 minutes ago, radarman said:

We'll clipper flipper at some point prolly.  Hope not but that's kinda how I see it going.  Maybe the backstop going up will help the coast, at least initially.

Agreed