weatherwiz

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what am I missing-models don't have much for the coast at least-looks well N and W

Activity will be more on the widespread side into western CT...probably up to the CT River. Activity begins isolated but should quickly organize into short lines and clusters.

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Earthquake caused an avalanche that transitioned into a flash flood?

Sounds like the Earthquake caused an avalanche and the snow/ice dumped into a river and caused a major blockage, allowing the water to build up and unfortunately cause the flooding. Heartbreaking. I can't imagine being in a situation like that, trying to run with essentially nowhere to go and not a chance to outrun it. 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yesterday tomorrow had potential, now it’s mainly a dry fropa. 
Pass

The front comes through on Friday, anything tomorrow would be pre-frontal trough related. Hudson Valley to the CT River will see scattered storms develop during the afternoon, perhaps evolving into multiple lines but there won't be much in the way of west-to-east progression, will be more southwest-to-northeast so probably will see some flash flooding where storms train...probably within the CT River Valley and Naugatuck Valley (should start mentioning them too for future reference because of the rate they flood in these setups).  

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh boy the excitement 

Friday could be a sneaky severe weather risk for eastern sections 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Oh boy the excitement 

In the end one of two scenarios will probably occur

1) MCS activity is confined to extreme northern VT/NH and ME

2) MCS activity dives to our southwest 

These things are extremely unpredictable this far out, but there is some MCS potential on Tuesday...perhaps multiple MCS rounds 

HRRR gone wild tomorrow 

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NHC will be reducing the probs on that wave in over the next day, just like we saw last week 

ha, didn't think it would happen with the 8:00 update lol

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Coldest Aug on record for CON is 1903. What in the sam hell is this? One day above 80° and only 82°.

Brutal 

The NHC will be reducing the probs on that wave in over the next day, just like we saw last week 

With how the NPAC is evolving combined with the signals for ridging to focus more across the Southeast or off the coast, we could be setting up for a well above average at least first half of Fall. This doesn't mean we'll get some cool periods, probably even some pretty cool nights, but the overall theme is going to be quite above. 

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this area had a derecho in july 97 and it was one of my spark events

I'll never forget turning on TWC on 7/15/95 and like 6 AM and them talking about the line moving across the region. Fun times

In addition to some locally strong-to-severe weather potential both Thursday and Friday, there should be some risk for flash flooding as well 

30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i've given up on ever getting those again

yup, the 90's seem to be a thing of the past

One thing to watch moving through the first week of September is the increasing likelihood for ridging to be centered more towards or just off the Southeast coast. For much of the last several weeks (At least) we've seen the ridging centered more Texas/New Mexico. This will open the room for widespread 80's and 90's in the typical hot spots and we probably become active with convective potential too given a westerly flow developing aloft.

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Let's get a Labor Day '98 redux but even more widespread

2 minutes ago, Snowedin said:

The summer season goes by way too fast, especially in this cut off corner of paradise. Why can’t we blow through the god awful month of January at the same relative pace as July? 

yeah it sucks how relatively short in duration we get enjoyable weather. I mean 50's and 60's aren't bad but it's just so much more enjoyable to sit outside with shorts, plus when its into the 80's you can at least do water activities/beach. January though I don't mind...you're in prime winter/snow season so you just hope you can rack up winter events. The month I really despise is March. By the time March rolls around I am ready for consistent 70's. But March...and April can be dreadful and it feels like better weather will never come lol.

Can't believe its already the end of August though. 

15 days from the kick off the NFL regular season and 5 weeks until NHL kicks off. Not used to September regular season for hockey 

Could be some risk for a tornado or two on Thursday...probably favored across the Hudson but def have to watch into the CT Valley as well 

CAMs not showing much but I'm really curious to see if we can pop anything this afternoon. CAMs are more bullish to our northwest (which makes sense) but we're going to break out into some degree of sun (at least up to and WOR) and should destabilize rapidly.

Mid-levels become rather dry, however, I don't think that would be a negative today because the llvls are quite moist so air rising rapidly would negate that a bit and this would also help strengthen downdraft potential. LCL and LFC are also relatively close throughout the day so it isn't going to take much to get parcels to really accelerate. Coverage isn't going to be widespread but any means but I think we'll see at least a few decent cells with 1-1.25" hail and strong wind gusts. 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was all day hills EOR. Up to .09

Blows. At my great niece birthday party. Luckily much of then day was dry. Had a brief sprinkle around 2:45-3 but had been dry. Despite this being super light everything is wet. At least it’s not enough to stop the fire from going 

Been getting an annoying mist in Enfield for the past hour…maybe even a bit longer 

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

It's rhe night time highs that are increasing . So a 78° overnight low will be  -2 for the day. 

yup...but sooner or later we'll ramp up the summer heat into this region 

By 2036 a 90F day on June 30 will be a -2 for a daytime high at BDL

Will be some nasty storms around Sunday if we can destabilize enough