weatherwiz

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Haven't seen mid clouds screaming in from the east like today since before the January blizzard 

I noticed that yesterday looking out the window. Had to take a second and more closer look...haven't seen clouds stream in from that direction in a while. They were hauling too

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Perhaps as many since the last Bruins Stanley Cup win???

 

a few models 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I do like seeing the euro AI kind of hold steady. It’ll be interesting to see what the 12z stuff does today. But when you get an anomalous 500 set up and multiple lows with convection all over the place, models are gonna have a tough time resolving it. I don’t know how good AI is for something like this.

This could be another great test for AI guidance.

However, didn't we have some similar scenarios last winter (maybe not truly anomalous as this setup is given time of year) but where we saw AI guidance holding steady and then collapsed towards traditional guidance inside of like 48-60 hr?

Only a couple of weeks until the NAM is toast (unless that gets pushed again). 

I don't know why I thought of this but it's kind of funny, just thinking of how many models have been introduced and retired since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl 

Definitely a much less impressive LLJ on the Euro (except towards the Cape). 

One thing that seems noticeable too is differences with the handling of the high to the north (on all guidance) 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No Ryan showed how well mixed we are earlier 

That was a sounding from New Haven he posted

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

40-60mph gusts is a typical October nor'easter around here. Seems like a big deal becuase its been boring as ****. 

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines 

Oh my lawdy

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, as we get into high-res range, we may see some big totals forecasted. A more organized system meandering west with dynamic bands could create some serious localized flash flood issues. 

I think there is also some potential this could become a deeper storm than what is being advertised now, especially given it starts warm core and how it may take its time transitioning to more of a cold core. Another factor in this too is how the upper-level wind field evolves. At least on the Euro, look at how the structure of the ULJ evolves...that is very favorable for enhanced diffluence aloft which would further factor into the strengthening of the storm and wind fields. Lots of interesting processes will be undergoing with this thing. Sexy science at work 

Yeah we can't ignore the rainfall aspect of this. This is a setup in which models (even the more aggressive models) could underplay rainfall totals. As impressive as the Euro is with rainfall totals, it could still be underdone (taking verbatim). That is a continuous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic and the system takes its sweet time occluding. There could be a swath of some substantial rainfall totals. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not really noise though if one can identify the cause of the differences...  Not meaning to be priggish ...just that it seems pretty clear - to me - that if the smear cross Cuba and gets pulled in en masse like the Euro, it's getting a huge physical feedback from that.  I think Scott mentioned feedback yesterday - no arg there but 16 dm of?!   "Noise" seems like a spray of offsetting probabilities...

Well, this explains where.   The GFS is less proficient with that infusion...

But I agree, higher resolution is worth wondering -

Agreed with that.

But to be clear (though this may not matter) I was referring to H5 in general (across CONUS) - not just the specific feature. But I get what you're saying. 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's some sensitivity to deterministic solutions coming from the amount of positive vorticity ( how much?) getting pulled out of the Caribbean and injected between 42 and 90+ hours or so.  This window of interaction is being slightly differently handled in the Euro vs GFS.  The Euro is sweaty love-making. The GFS isn't sure what its feelings are ..heh

Recent Euro runs are quite proficient/bullish with the result, because it is massively infusing this junk/failed zygote tropical entity into the agglomeration of weak S/W aspect that is wobbling through that lat/lon of the MA by the end of that time range.  This transition of annotated charts over the course shows what happens when even weak N stream gets injected with a pithy diabatic heat source...

 

 

 

The GFS is occasionally not as proficient with/in the integrating idea. 

The Euro has been rather persistent in forecasting a proficient phase at a range when modeling et al typically has higher average error when handling delicate matters. 

I took a look at the ensemble means of both ... it appears the idea of vestigial tropical infusion and subsequent unusual feedback due to that source is what I was personally missing yesterday in my analysis at that time.  That does not mean it will happen like the Euro, per se... the 00z GGEM was less, as was the 06 GFS... We'll pick and choose ( ha, I can imagine which this particular group will pick!) 

This is why suggest the scenario is a bit touchy.  Smaller percentages less of the lower latitude diabatic source-inclusion into the holistic set up... will probably manifest something more like the a flatter/weaker less entertaining surface result.

This is where you have to wonder whether the Euro's parameterization scheme just remains far superior to the GFS. I mean compare H5 of the Euro to the GFS from the 0z run at initialization. Now one could argue it's "noise" or subtle differences but IMO those differences for an initialization are rather large. I would also re-suggest the argument of the lack of upper-air observations within the region the s/w is traversing but the counter-argument to that would be - why is that not impacting the Euro...perhaps an answer to that would be...the euro is just more superior with initializing processes haha. 

Anyways, this post comes across as Euro is right and GFS is wrong - obviously we don't know that but lets say the Euro ends up scoring the scoop on this and blows the GFS away...may as well just put the GFS away. 

One thing to keep in mind with this potential system too is it being warm core and how long it maintains its warm core

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Recon may get there when it peaks, which will be KEWL!  Odds are good that it will be stronger than Dvorak says, which is very common for intense TCs.  Dvorak works best for TCs between 60 and 105 kt.

yeah definitely interested to see what recon finds with this

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro AI is nasty. 
 

Will be interesting to see when we get into hi res territory with the LLJ. Unlike previous storms there will be days of NE fetch. I’m gusting to 25mph and the seas are rough. It’s only Tuesday. 

May be talking about potential for hurricane force gusts along the coasts. But yeah I'm really intrigued to see what hi-res is like with the LLJ and really start digging into mixing potential. Have to watch too for some elevated CAPE grazing the coast

what a beast

Hopefully utility companies getting some help on standby 

that is a monster LLJ too on the Euro...and one that encompasses a large geographic area 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Both models seem to have a cluster SE of ACK and then way SW of ACK. Or course the mean will be in the middle...but it's likely one or the other.

What's interesting on the EPS is you see the two clustered areas that you mention, however, then there is a convergence of the two camps backing in west. 

IDK...Euro has that look of backing in. Maybe it ends up east of previous runs but that H5 look through 120-126 seems to scream getting tugged in

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Care more about track vs strength though. AI a nice hit.

Yup and at this point strength is not necessarily important. In fact, if one is looking for prolonged impacts you'd probably not want this getting as deep as it can get because that would probably result in a quicker occlusion. But because of the potential anomalous track of this system, the angle in which this may bank in is going to be more of a player versus strength.

Polo looks about ripe for IR 

GEFS east but still a ton of spread and some interesting members. 

The GFS does have an east or OTS bias with coastal's though not sure if really only applies with winter and dealing with Arctic airmasses. If 12z euro is similar to at least yesterday's runs this is going to be a hell of a battle between the suites. One of them is going to get totally schooled 

Yeah ICON is pretty wild. That's an impressive warm core system and it takes forever to occlude 

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z ICON also kind of does that

Probably would be looking at some serious coastal flooding across eastern MA and particularly the Cape and along the north facing shore of Long Island