weatherwiz

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Is weatherwiz "mad" he only got, what, 10" total????    

There was no way to measure but I am figuring probably 6" or so. There were some totals around here that were a bit more than that. I thought I would get around a foot here (maybe closer to 18" if the banding worked right). I expected to get screwed but not this much. One of the biggest killers (outside of being in between bands) was the snow ratios absolutely sucked. Lift was definitely above the DGZ (which was also shown well on bufkit for this area). 

I'm honestly more mad CT wasn't widespread 18-24" than I am missing out  

10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I'm going to record six inches. Anything more than that I think is suspicious.

I would 1000% agree with that

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.

Fatigue and time constraints absolutely play a role. It's why I'm not particularly active anymore blogging unless there is a big event. I have to do forecasts for all over the country and when its crazy I am so exhausted I don't have the time or energy to put the focus and detail I would like into the maps/blogs I post...it kind of sucks. This is why I am going to transition to doing videos instead. I suck with technology but I'm slowly getting there. 

I went to bed around 7:30 Sunday night and woke up just before 3:00. One look outside and I knew I was totally screwed but I'll say, it did bring me joy and some sense of peace reading the accounts from others who got into the goods. 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it.

I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.

Absolutely. 

As I stated above, I'm a bit frustrated because the signs and signals where there and present, but not sure why I avoided them. Ultimately, I think I did too much to talk myself out of why I didn't think it would happen instead of taking as a flag. I might have let some of the latest QPF jumps (Friday) get to me and I don't know why because QPF totals are actually the very last thing I really look it. 

When I was looking at hose fronto maps from FSU and going nuts...I kept telling myself its weird how quick it is with the front and how it evolved it to depict the two bands but didn't want to believe it I guess. 

I'm actually really glad there was really no way for me to measure so while I'm disappointed because I don't know what I got, I am sheltered because I don't know how much less than expected. Although it really sucks because I probably won't be able to get to 100" now. 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Part of me kind of misses the days of broad ranges with highlighted zones for "locally higher amounts"

The problem these days is that you can try and forecast the band from PVD-GHG on this run. But then the next run it's ORH-BOS, so you increase the snow there. But you don't want to drop it from PVD-GHG just in case that was actually right. So the snow amounts are forever only going up until it's too late to recover from the messenger shuffle.

The broad brush ranges certainly makes things much easier lol. 

But I can understand why there has been more of a movement to include more ranges and place greater emphasis on max/min zones. If you're in say an emergency planning vertical or DOT, landscaping, etc. the broad brush ranges often don't serve a great value (this is where the private sector come in because you can pay for greater local detail). 

Anyways very impressive to see that the short-term guidance and mesos absolutely nailed how this would evolve...literally to a T, especially with the evolution of the two bands and what would happen in between and even more impressive, the timing this would begin. 

These large events (or really any event) so there is much focus and so much sweat on analyzing QPF and QPF trends, snow maps and snow map trends and comparing from one model to another and one run to another run...that's a pretty terrible way to assess storm trends and evolution, IMO. In fact, on one of my lecture slides the professor even has stated in bold...these products do not explain why trends in storm track or precipitation intensity are there. 

This shall be another fun case study storm

46 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

In a typical developing (i.e. not peak intensity) storm your frontogenesis is going to be sloped towards the cold air. 850 is farther southeast than 700 mb, and so on. Lift tends to be maximized around 700 mb, hence congrats Dendrite.

This storm bombed out a little farther south, so one of the first things I noticed was the position of the forecast 700 and 850 mb frontogenesis.

While still sloped a bit, it's far more collocated/vertically stacked. That signaled to me that one major band would develop. And that look at 700 mb with a secondary band farther north suggested to me that it wasn't going to be a uniform precip shield. That a subsidence zone was possible between the two. I may have sent a text about toaster baths in the LWM area to @CoastalWx and @CT Rain Sunday.

I made a little gif too, so you can see how the forcing is overlaid.

I do think part of the problem with the secondary band was that it was advecting so much dry air into the storm. @dendrite posted somewhere along the line the map of RH, and 50% across central NH just wasn't going to get it done for that northern extent. It was like a dry wedge in the usually CAD spots. 

Very annoyed with myself because that was a glaring signal on all guidance...extremely glaring signal but for some reason I didn't want to buy it and buy into exactly how bad the potential for subsidence would be in the valley. The signals were all right there, laid out right there and just totally overlooked. 

Great stuff on the differences in alignment regarding 850mb fronto and 700mb fronto and what happens when the two become stacked. Moving forward I am going to give stronger attention to this. Anytime there are situations where models are big with the 700mb fronto, I've disregarded what's happening at 850 in terms of fronto. I wonder if this stuff would be covered in my course this week focusing on isentropic analysis. 

The other challenging part when dealing with the potential for subsidence zone(s) is how to portray that on a snowfall forecast map without making the map look stupid (Speaking for myself here). I guess maybe one way to do this is don't go crazy with the ranges and then add some text or an outline indicating where max totals may be. It's much easier to highlight max zone versus min zone I think anyways

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wild WAA temps start in the teens and even some single digits with first flakes then halt up 20 degrees in 2-3 hours , won’t be much road stickage with temps like that on the south coast and valleys. 

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the degree of warming temps is a bit understated, especially during the precip. Possible maybe we see some late afternoon highs?

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

This winter in particular....it seems like we get into these 1 week periods where it just wants to snow,  then we go another week or 2 that it doesn't want to. Upcoming period definitely fits that pattern again

Yup.

And I think we should be relatively active right up to probably mid-March. Don't see a hole heck of a lot too screaming warm so we're going to have potential to continue adding to seasonal totals for sure

Should be a fun morning for sure, except for those traveling. 

Also, some of the mesos are hinting at some potential squalls to move across northwest CT and Mass late afternoon or early evening with some very weak instability in place. Could see some spots pick up an additional 1-2" with those, albeit localized.

27.1" for EWR

Gusts have to be pushing 45-50 here. Hell, even just saw a snowtornado  

Bunch of snow blew off the neighbors roof and developed into a rotating column of snow. Dissipated when it hit the house next to it. 

wind seems to be getting stronger here 

1 minute ago, JACKASS said:

Wrong state, still funny.

Maybe he had to cross state lines to find some donuts 

13 minutes ago, klw said:

If you choose the Central Ave link, you can watch someone trying to dig their car out of the snow at the bottom of an exit ramp.

https://www.dot.ri.gov/travel/cameras_metro.php#

Metfan?

The system has occluded by now so the moisture inflow is starting to cut off. Probably won't see much more enhancement from that western band but it could help to add to that eastern band once they converge 

If these two bands converge across RI/SE MA someone for sure will get 35-40"

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok back to moderate snow now with some big gusts. Still waiting to see what W CT up to N/ C MA band does as it  reorients

Its been snowing steady here but the intensities aren't anything great, I'm not even sure its efficiently accumulating, however, the wind makes it impossible to really know. 

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I can’t wait to see pictures and videos out of Rhode Island.

Here you go

I was expecting to get screwed here in the valley, though not as bad as what happened, however, this is still extremely enjoyable and its a blast reading the reports and feeling the energy of others getting slammed. 

Nice push of snow which moves through Wednesday morning...def could bring someone 2-4"

19 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Just hit 58 mph here; ~1,200'

some pretty impressive gusts here over the past 20-30 minutes. some big tome roars 

may be getting strongest gusts so far

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I guess we really never were in it . I just hoped really hard.

Kind of figured it would be a bit bad here but not this bad. But lets see what happens as the band pivots east. 

Maybe we can get the hole to fill in a bit or maybe even converge the two a bit