weatherwiz

8 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 FYI That line east of KBGM has a tor warning. You had interest in that line earlier. 
 

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NYC025-182300- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260718T2300Z/ Delaware NY- 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY... At 636 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Harvard, or near Walton, moving east at 40 mph.

 

yup multiple warnings. 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We did ?

yes MCD was issued which includes western CT mentioning uncertainty in whether downstream watch will be issued

7 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Unimpressed with everything about this day, had zero expectations. It was always going to be a slopfest, there was only ever one run of one model that looked really interesting for my area, and obviously that ain't enough to get exited about, unless maybe if you're Wiz (just kidding). I did raise an eyebrow when the SPC expanded probs for spinners here but never really bought into that because experience has taught me they seldom do great with New England setups and I just didn't see anything that looked unusually good for tors and supes this far north and east, despite the decent shear. Could still get surprised, I suppose, but I consider that possibility increasingly unlikely. Maybe the next one, sigh...

 

Expectations should always be low in our setups really. At least for me, part of the fun in all this is the "unknown". 99.999999% of the time (or some number that's essentially 100% without being 100%) severe weather here is not going to be widespread or even concentrated, its just going to be some reports scattered about and localized. But back to the fun...its the tracking and monitoring to see even if one storm produces...and if that one storm does produce, there is someone out there who was directly impacted. 

These setups are just so intriguing in that regard because the kinematics support the potential and generally instability is usually just enough to warrant some concern, but ultimately low enough to where maybe only a few storms will ever become mature enough to utilize the environment. 

Got the MCD for western areas...only an hour after I suspected  

maybe I meant 5:00 CT 

I would wager by 5:00 we probably see an MCD for western areas. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you could get clipped.

That stuff west of BGM starting to look pretty good with cooling cloud tops. Looks like it just behind the warm front too. Probably up to the CT River probably still in game for svr potential given it looks like the warm front should get there. Want to see dews get to around 72-73...not sure how far northeast those will make it though 

Hoping to go after that stuff moving past BGM now. Hopefully it will remain on a trajectory or pass close enough to BDL. 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Still smoked too

when I was outside with the dog this morning I was a bit shocked how it was outside...smoke was pretty evident. Thought at first it was maybe some fog but the smell of smoke was clear as day. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Round 2

just edited...meant to say 3km is a bit off with how things are evolving. 

HRRR pretty good to get everyone with some amount of rain for rd 2. Severe potential remains complex. Might just have to watch where the instability gradient is. But even that will be tough to pinpoint because the warm front is moving. 

The HRRR is wayyyyy off with how things are evolving 

EDIT: meant to say 3km 

Hasn't rained here in like 20 minutes, time to raise the drought monitor index 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup..sun trying to come out now here. Got a good drink though from the first round. 

def a good drink here. took a drive to Enfield/back and ran into some heavy downpours on the way there and again on the way back. cloud tops warming quickly though on the back end...lets get some sun. won't take much to get temps to jump 

Might actually be encouraging for some breaks in the clouds 

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if this stuff is gonna screw up SNE later.

Yeah real tough to tell. Looks like there may be some breaks behind this stuff so we’ll see. Probably going to struggle to get enough CAPE though unless we can really pump the dews 

3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Not that it necessarily means anything locally but at least it’s good to see lots of thunder activity on radar in multiple places 

Ramping up the elevated instability…not a bad sign. Just have to see if we can muster up enough surface instability. It’s going to be a short window but not impossible. Some of the bigger events happen when you’re rapidly increasing instability just out ahead of the approaching activity 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Some nasty stuff up around Rochester…wonder if that is what comes through here this evening?  

yup...that's the stuff to watch for this evening. As that activity approaches we may see some discrete develop out ahead of it. 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Discrete this afternoon, the line this evening. 

I think our window for discrete may be smaller and probably would be timed closer to when the line arrives. Probably looking at 5-7 for discrete with the line rolling through shortly after. I think the overall progression of the warm front has slowed to what it was looking like yesterday. It will be some time before we can get in some sfc instability 

Definitely going to be interesting early evening, guidance increases instability just out ahead of the main activity moving in. If we can get upwards of 1500 J of MLCAPE to build in like some guidance shows there will be some wind damage for sure. Of course given the directional shear there would be the risk for a few tornadoes. Won't be getting much sun today but our instability is going to be coming from increasing dewpoints...if we get dews 73-74-75 in...watch out

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Might be some flood risk if those storms train in CT. 

yeah certainly could see some flash flooding 

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

For who?

To our west but also within CT along the warm front during the afternoon with potential for supercells/isolated tornado risk. 

Then a line moving through during the evening with localized wind damage threat 

18z HRRR pretty ominous 

An unseasonably strong shortwave trough amplifies as it swings across the Great Lakes region on Saturday as it advances towards the Northeast Saturday evening/overnight. As it does so, a cold front will push across the Great Lakes region during the day with a warm front lifting across the Northeast during the day on Saturday ushering in a warmer and more moist low-level airmass. Ahead of the trough features 40-45 knots of westerly mid-level flow with 30-40 knots of southwesterly flow in the lower-levels of the atmosphere which will contribute to 30-40+ knots of bulk shear, sufficient for storm organization. 

With the warm front approaching and a relatively uncapped airmass, extensive cloud cover along with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day and this does raise concerns about how much surface heating can occur and how much instability can build. Secondly, the timing of the rain and thunderstorms associated with a pre-frontal trough will be during the early evening, after peak heating. While instability would be a concern moving out of peak heating, as the warm front continues lifting through the region, the advection of higher theta-e air should help maintain what instability we have in place or even boost instability values a bit. 

CAMS are rather bullish in developing multiple rounds of thunderstorms across NY and PA with potential for multiple and concentrated swaths of damaging wind gusts and even potential for a few tornadoes given high helicity values. CAMS weaken this activity as it propagates across New England during the evening, however, given strong dynamics, increasing height falls, and at least weak instability (MLCAPE ~1000 JKG), localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps even an embedded tornado would remain possible as this activity crosses the region. As usual, the best potential for damaging winds or a tornado would be western sections. If instability turns out greater than forecast, there would be potential for a greater damaging wind threat across western MA and western CT.

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just have to stay offshore. Needs to get suppressed in the Gulf rather than dragged back into FL like some models try. 

Also--just looked at the 12z NAM for tomorrow. Active day ahead?

Should be. Overall best severe threat will be off to the west but should still see some localized wind threat across the region during the evening. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

Certainly may be a brief window for something to become a bit organized before shear increases some

6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Since eastern Canada seems to regularly get plenty of convection, wouldn’t the smoke act as a deterrent there as well?

Understanding smokes impact on convective potential is extremely complicated. If you're talking about convective potential which is extremely dependent on instability, then smoke is going to have a large negative impact on convective potential because its going to inhibit the convective temperature from being reached and of course lead to a reduction in instability. If you have a setup though in which forcing and dynamics are strong and you don't have to rely on large CAPE, smoke is probably not going to inhibit convection from developing (but of course may negatively impact strength). 

In the case of what happened across western Maine the other day, you already had capping in place from a stout EML so the dense smoke further enhanced capping and of course prevented convective temperature from being reached. Forcing for any afternoon storm development was always weak, which also increased tornado potential. 

So adding smoke into things just add another level of complexity but the impact of smoke on potential is going to vary based on the mechanisms involved in convective development.