weatherwiz

20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

SPC has decided to tease the setup a bit more!

Not entirely shocked at the slight risk designation. We've had some worse setups get a slight risk designation  

That is a really well-defined s/w trough moving into the region with good height fields and increasing dynamics with cooling aloft. I would be shocked if storms aren't numerous tomorrow and evolve into multiple short-line segments or clusters

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Any severe?

maybe! 

the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather. 

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Very west Texas-esq where CF meets dry line. You can see outflow surging SE and there’s a remnant boundary of some kind just sitting there. 

Yup…don’t see that too terribly often here. Cool to see

Brother lives in new Britain and lighting hit something about 1/10th of a mile from his house 

Those storms exploded along the outflow 

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

God I love this location for severe

* At 547 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Belchertown, or 8 miles southeast of Amherst

 

But seriously though I doubt this one verifies.  Classic SPS event IMO

Surprised at the 1” hail tag. Tough to get 1” hail in this setup. Poor lapse rates and very warm aloft. Would need a monster updraft to achieve that. 

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

No peas here but quite a bit of lightning, a good amount of rain, and a nice change to the airmass.  

Stein, we hardly knew ye

And it gets warned 

Quite breezy out ahead of this 

Also looks like some dewpoint pooling ongoing with a theta-e ridge overhead. MLCAPE ~2000 not bad given the poor mid-level lapse rates. Any severe risk though should be extremely localized. DCAPE is meh with pretty poor 2-6km lapse rates and llvl shear is not much. So just going to be some torrential rain (poor drainage flooding risk) and maybe some good CGs

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please make this happen 

It is! Seems to be evolving nicely. Satellite shows great upscale growth with cooling cloud tops. Might even be a weak sea breeze front which aids in development within south-central CT. 

Not saying we see much severe but we may see a pretty solid line of torrential rain and thunderstorms evolve right along the 84 corridor. 

short term trends looking favorable from about MA Pike into norther CT in a few hours

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I edited that

My sense is that's got a fair shot at being an upgrader

Only limiting factors I see towards greater coverage are the "lower dewpoints" - 60's aren't bad but would like to see like 68-70+ and llvl convergence looks a little weak. Anyways, steep lapse rates aloft and good height falls so can't sleep on it

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry for the OT....I'll let Wiz discuss CAPE for next Monday...I'm sure that will get everyone's rocks off-

Good call

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

feels very warm to me.   86 to 89 at most home/non-official sites, enough en masse that combined with the sensible appeal out there ...it's legit.  With almost nill movement to the air and intense insolation, that's pushing it

It's been a great gradual increase in warmth/humidity through the day. Working outside and I've really felt this increase in the last few hours. The sweat slowly develops and you can feel yourself starting to stick to the leather chair all so slowly...its like applying a fine strip of super glue to a broken piece of glass. My shorts are that glue 

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We get better thunderstorms in February than summer lately

Torched mid-levels suck. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's late June, you'll always have steep low level lapse rates lol.

That is true  

But I think 2-6km lapse rates are a better metric to use when assessing damaging wind gusts potential versus the standard "low-level lapse rates" which I think are measured 0-3km?

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Sucks to be us. 

 

hmmm...not sure what he is referring to with steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates are garbage so I am assuming he means low-level lapse rates...but not sure how steep those are tomorrow regionally due to lots of cloud cover. Probably a better chance llvl lapse rates are steeper across southeast PA into NJ but not sure if they will be anything to write home about. 

Not sure I see much risk for an isolated tornado there...if any risk existed it would be in central New England, closer to the warm front. Winds down there veer more in the llvls as the warm front lifts farther northeast. 

Tomorrow may not see much lol. It's extremely warm aloft. +9C to +10C at 700 and -7C at 500mb. Actually kind of sucks because forcing/shear isn't terrible.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can't believe how lame storms have been over the last several years. Unreal.

It really blows. I would really kill for a repeat of 2008 with the constant cold pools. June and July were insane with the daily thunderstorms and hail. Would even be better if we could get 90's squall lines again but that seems like a distant thing of the past. 

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow seems meh for storms. Wonder if the early morning stuff limits some heating. Kind of looks messy overall.

Yup...looks like best will be southwest (of course). Might have to watch central/northern New England though around the warm front. SPC hints at it too...but could be potential for a TOR or two if there is enough destabilizing there

This is summer weather. This is New England, not the desert Southwest. Lower elevations away from the coastal Plain climbing into the 80's for highs and higher elevations/coast you take a few degrees off. 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Congrats on clearing out mid afternoon. Sounds like an epic day. 

Better late than never! 
 

I always enjoy these type of days, it’s crazy how it can be so cloudy/cool/drizzle then several hours later hot and humid. I was outside with the dog right as the crap was clearing out and feel the change in real time