weatherwiz

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need a lot more than that outside of the Cape/South coast

Wondering if maybe the GFS was a tad overdone with QPF in those areas. You get this random spike north with some of the higher QPF into the south coast but I mean I guess that is feasible. But its all going to come down to how much lift can be generated. This sounding looks pretty decent actually but IDK...I think any stronger lift is going to be more localized and with that it will be hard to sustain any kind of rates to readily accumulate, even with higher ratios. That's what is going to kill here...the overall rates are going to be very light and without the higher lift you still aren't going to produce great dendrites...except in the pockets of greater lift. 

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else sick of the cold already?

I'm definitely over it, just nothing fun about it. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, there’s no doubt I’ve let my opinions out on this pattern. However, after the warm-up next week, I think there is a legit shot of some overrunning before Christmas.
I was just looking a little bit more at the ensemble and you can definitely get a sense based on the members and six hour QPF that there’s some semblance of moisture trying to run into some of the cold area that we’ll have in place or at least trying to leak down from Canada. It could easily cut, however I think if there’s any shot it’s probably like the 21st to the 24th or something like that.

I feel cautiously optimistic for the post Christmas period (or maybe even around)...but saying this I also feel I'm setting myself up to fall into the cycle of "pattern looks good early Dec, delayed to after the 10th, delayed to around Christmas, delayed until after New Years). 

But the overall regime does look like it will relax some which would put us very close to that battle ground of warmer temperatures to the south and colder temperatures nearby. You always have to watch though for cutters which makes me a bit nervous. 

I am just going into this with no expectations really. All possibilities have nearly an equal chance of happening right now. 

I think the northern extent for anything accumulating beyond a coating will be Long Island and maybe extreme southern RI. The DGZ is certainly very deep and the potential for ratios to be great (>15:1) are high, however, we will need to at least generate enough lift into the DGZ (which is thankfully low) but just don't see that happening. Yeah I know the famous if's...if x does this or y does that but maybe most will at least see a coating but there is the risk for alot of virga (think Will said) so we'll have to rely on localized areas of stronger lift so it's possible many struggle to even get a coating 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hold me....I yearn for safety-

Yearn for warmth...it will be cold

Could get some snow showers Monday night, maybe even squalls which could drop a quick coating to an inch 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Fantasy playoff semifinals for me. I have to choose between Maye (snow/Buf) and Lamar (injury). I feel like Vrabel would be ground and pound with snow.

I'm sure there will be a passing game for just snow showers 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Solid consensus for Christmas day

At least this GIF is festive  

Looks like the color changing Christmas Lights people hang outside 

The GFS/Euro for the second half of the week across the country are not even on the same planet lol. Not sure if its because the GFS has some cut off energy held in the deep South but it's absolutely insane how different they are. 

30 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

RRFS, Nam‘s replacement, looking ok for a 2-4 incher over CT and maybe even a little bit more for far SE Mass. I’ll take.

That model needs a lot of work 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Being on the nrn edge potentially introduces fronto fun so I’m not ruling it out, but man I can’t help thinking we may see some ticks southeast. I don’t see how it can improve from some mid those 12z solutions. 

My stance is by 12z runs tomorrow any guidance that was ticking more “favorable” will revert back leaving an outcome of just some snow showers. Maybe someone gets a coating 

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Me and Tequila Barry there around then as well. I heard Ray is using his boys Red Rider wagon to haul in his blog for us to read.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm going to miss Tequila Barry  

Send him my best 

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning. 

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will has it. Dec is actually a very prolific month and up there on highest monthly average. 

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will has it

I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is).  

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Dec snows last 100 plus years in Hartford  50/50 shot of big snows. 

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas 

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Man that 95-96 archive is sweet to look at.  What a year.  

I was just looking at that  

This is phenomenal work. Incredible job to all involved in this.

most exciting weather upcoming will be the landslides in the PAC NW next week 

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Makes perfect sense since they both ended up in the Mid-Atlantic!

This deserves post of the year

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

JMA must have a blizzard by now, May have to pull the herpes model out of mothballs as well, 

nahhh otherwise Metfan would have spammed us with 8000 images from the JMA by now

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

A Two week prog.  Really? 

How bout 726 hr

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Oh, so now you’re a rip and reader, and crushing everybody’s morning. What has happened to you Paul. 

I retired from drinking 40's of Steel Reserve 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On which model? There’s like 10 different variations of what I’ve seen for that period. 

I was just rip and reading the GFS lol. 

But I just happened to look at the Euro...what a difference. 

anyways I am with you, I think the extent of the ridging we've been seeing will end up getting muted (though we probably still end up on the milder side). 

Gotta say...for that Christmas period, it is getting a bit more difficult to find any potential to wedge at the surface. The position of the sfc low would favor deep southwesterly flow across the eastern third of the country. Doesn't look like there is any room for a high to our north or northeast.