weatherwiz

9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

ALY radar is quite surprising. That burst of moderate to heavy over the capital district into SVT was poorly modeled 

Solid 700-500mb fronto setting up there

This was an absolutely confidence boost in taking AI more seriously in the medium range. Now, we can't assume that AI is just going to nail the medium range but the value this could provide is huge. Inside of 48 hours we just continue relying on the mesos and.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I am a fan of that WCB stuff south of LI not really bulging north. Almost wants to slide east. Hope that stuff in NJ blossoms.

We'll see what happens. This is one of the more nail biting nowcast situations in a while. Hopefully that area of 700 fronto along Long Island is some indication of where we'll get better banding developing later and hints at stuff blossoming farther north and west.

850mb fronto is getting there so we should at least continue seeing precip blossom across the region later on

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t think the rates are there for a lot of warning amounts. But there will def be some good snow growth I think got a few hours this evening. 

Yeah any warning amounts would probably be too isolated or localized to really justify a warning. 

This evening is going to be fun and across a large area. I really feel like this could overperform somewhere and we could see some 7-10" totals, especially if we get a good mlvl fronto band to setup. As Ray has mentioned multiple times, the late closing off at 850 is a little concerning but bufkit soundings are pretty damn good looking. 

This is 16z HRRR for ORH. While I would like to see some lower omega values to consider rates at or exceeding 1.5" the depth of the DGZ and likely efficiency of the snow growth could make this very possible. 

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

According to HRRR, radar should start blossoming in Jersey between 1-2pm and start heading NE.

can see cloud tops cooling down near the Delmarva 

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what I was talking about earlier on a lot of these runs this evening. That heavier stuff is slamming the DGZ pretty hard…this is the latest hrrr but NAM has been showing it pretty consistently for several hours….so there could be some pretty efficient QPF to accumulation ratios if that pans out (and as a rule, you can lower that DGZ a little for us in SNE since we tend to have a lot of salt nuclei in the clouds here versus much of the country further away from the ocean)

12z NAM looks solid for BOS this evening

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

What are you using Cobb11? im assuming not maxT in profile which is kuchera. 

If referring to bufkit, both are separate. If you’re using cobb11 it’s deriving the snow ratios from 5 or 6 products. 

If you choose maxT in profile you can adjust the max temp to compute different ratios 

Coating down so far 

3 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

Skies have gone and our temp has dropped to 27⁰...went for a walk, all the wet snow has become quite fluffy. Our open field had an eerie fog developing.

Noticed the same thing driving home earlier

Just going through some bufkit soundings but here is New Haven, CT

1. You can see the deep DGZ but also look at the time period around that AM stuff...ratios up around 20:1 with some strong lift then again during the evening. If this morning band verifies snow rates could approach 1-1.5" per hour

Anxiously awaiting the 0z NAM bufkit. 

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s my thought process . Just hoping it ends up somewhere in my 4-8” zone

I'd feel confident about that should this occur. Starting to think it is gaining more legs though 

Morning stuff could really overperform somewhere

northern CT. You can see how deep the DGZ is as Will alluded too. Pretty good lift here too. Can't wait to see this on bufkit

What a sunset 

10 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Great job on the roads... lol

Probably won’t see a plow at all  

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nice. 

Beautiful, looks like winter again. 

4” here!!!

Just now, dryslot said:

3K is much better then the 12k

Lmao are those two ever in sync? They’re like a toxic Hollywood couple 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It kinds of looks like it a bit, because Will is right, it did look more amped to start.

Could be real though 

yup...sucks when you get this convective chasing crap because there is no way to know for sure if its accurate until the event is unfolding. It also gets going just a tad too late...you can see if trying to recover and build NW at hr 30-33

Just now, MJO812 said:

Weaker but still good for up there

outside of interior NE MA those rates are putrid. that's salt shaker snow

chasing convection again?

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have been aggressive on this from the get-go, aside from when I got skiddish last night, but I don't see enough evidence that the kicker will allow this to congeal enough in the vicinity of our area to have those mid levels close quickly enough.

Anyways at least this looks like a good solid regionwide 3-6" event. Don't want anyone interpret the discussion of the mid-levels meaning this is cooked lol. Just moreso trying to gauge what's the upper ceiling we're working with here