weatherwiz

I can dig 30s at night and then 50s and 60s during the day...preferably 60s but keep this going through November. 

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Now will they self learn from this? If so…that necessarily isn’t a bad thing that they failed. 

ehh I don't think that's how that really works. The overall scheme is much more complex than just "learning" from mistakes and misses. 

While its become apparent AI models are going to provide some tremendous value, at least in medium range forecasting, if we truly want to make a substantial leap with modeling we need two things

1) Superior computing (such as quantum computing) that is able to perform complex calculations at a much faster rate. Another key aspect about quantum computing is they will be able to handle and perform even calculations that are way more complex than what supercomputers can currently handle 

2) The ability to initialize current state better (the Euro has been worlds ahead in this) and part of this goes into quantum computing and ability to handle and perform challenging complex equations. 

3) Another challenge is putting knowledge, or our understanding on physical processes into mathematical terms to be computed. There is always going to be some sort of disconnect because we don't have a true 100% knowledge of every process which occurs during storm evolution (example: why some supercells with hooks produce tornadoes while others don't) so we can't 100% model that accurately. And models just can't learn that without us being able to feed it that information first. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly don’t even look at the GFS anymore.

I kind of have too...or at least don't put much stock into it.

What I've been finding interesting too is over the past few years (I'll even say several) it seems the big deviations don't even occur from incremental errors or differences that leads to the large differences...its like a switch flips at D3-4 and the divergence in guidance is through the roof. There will be subtle differences in key features through D3 and then all of a sudden D4...its like WTF just happened 

I have a feeling this is going to be an absolutely horrific late spring/winter for forecasting. Just look at the differences between the Euro/GFS beginning at D3-4 lol...totally not even in the same ballpark with many of the upper-level features. Check out how the GFS/Euro handle that system digging into the PAC NW lol...its laughable 

these climate model seasonal snow maps are a joke. what a waste of space and resources 

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hard to trust any model when they are struggling so much..  just look at 97W 

That is just a product of the upper air pattern and what will ultimately steer it and probably due to the fact that the system is still quite unorganized  

Interesting difference between the EPS mean and control moving into the first week of November. Control develops a stout +PNA/-AO combo but its not a typical pattern evolution of what you'd expect yielding that...also you would at least expect to get a much colder airmass from northern Canada or Arctic but that is not the case. Raging jet too...any systems moving onto the west coast (or into the southwest I should say) or going to fly across the country  

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Was this wind forecast? Worse than anything this month

yes

Two trees we have in the front yard had some amazing vibrant colors...mostly yellows. Both the trees though have pretty much dropped all their leaves. One I think has fully dropped and the other like 90% dropped. I don't really know tree species but its interesting because these are legit the only two trees in the neighborhood which have not only fully changed but dropped leaves. 

Gotta say...the bots have been quite impressive with pattern recognition and just an overall better idea of the general idea of the larger-scale storm details (development, track). Certainly enough I think to give a big boost in confidence for medium-range forecasting. Not entirely sure about the inside 48-hours or storm specific details but they've been a big boost in the medium-range for sure.

Just your usual 5 AM supercells in Arizona 

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

 

Not to be weird but I wish you could enjoy it too!

Hopefully we get a nice late Fall threat, otherwise May isn't too terribly far off 

57 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

 Could not have foreseen this when I came out here last week: 

In addition to the heavy rainfall and flash flood threat, another
threat to watch out for will be severe weather. Given the moderate
levels of instability in place combined with strong 0-6 km vertical
shear in excess of 50 kts, the thunderstorms that do develop will
likely have some organization to them with the potential to acquire
supercellular characteristics. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center
has highlighted much of the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix in
a slight risk (Level 2 out 5) for severe weather for Wednesday, with
a marginal risk (Level 1 out 5) across the rest of south-central AZ,
including the Phoenix metro area. The thunderstorms that do develop
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
even an isolated tornado given that there will be about 10-20 kts of
low-level shear. The threat of severe weather will also exist into
Thursday as well, especially Thursday morning, as the instability
and shear parameters will still be sufficient.

Enhanced risk added with the D2 this afternoon for hail 

Maybe it’s acorns coming down 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Pretty meh overall gust to maybe 25 and 2 minutes of torrential rain @weatherwiz FTW 

Didn’t even get a breeze here before the torrential rain. Some bright flashes though and long rumbles. We inversion 

Woah just got a flash of lightning and thunder out of nowhere. Just before I was going to start video

I don’t understand the 60 mile wide warnings in these. All of this stuff besides the Litchfield stuff looks terrible. Even that may not be what it looks 

North part of Sherman must be getting smoked 

That warning here is a little puzzling to me. Velocities haven’t looked great (though wind would be right on the leading edge) but haven’t even seen any reports of wind damage associated with it moving into western MA

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please hold that together into and thru this area 

It may tend to weaken, unless instability shoots up a bit out ahead of it but it’s in an area of higher MLCAPE now 

Kent/New Milford going to get the best goods 

12 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

@weatherwizhopefully chasing this line as it appears to be developing a bit of a bow near the SNE severe capital of Great Barrington.   @vortex95 allowed to still call S Weymouth the severe capital 

No Chase but will be outside hoping for some goods 

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Nice banana high. Sign me up for one of those this winter with low pressure developing in the deep South 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I agree to a point. Record strong niño forcing is a concern, but there’s a relatively SSS there. It’s hard to see a path to a very cold winter, but snow is a wildcard. 

Throw in the state of the PDO into the mix too. I haven't followed too closely the progression of the PDO since spring/summer but it seems to me like the -PDO has re-established itself to some degree...can't really strong Nino's with this degree of PDO regime.