weatherwiz

Maybe it’s acorns coming down 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Pretty meh overall gust to maybe 25 and 2 minutes of torrential rain @weatherwiz FTW 

Didn’t even get a breeze here before the torrential rain. Some bright flashes though and long rumbles. We inversion 

Woah just got a flash of lightning and thunder out of nowhere. Just before I was going to start video

I don’t understand the 60 mile wide warnings in these. All of this stuff besides the Litchfield stuff looks terrible. Even that may not be what it looks 

North part of Sherman must be getting smoked 

That warning here is a little puzzling to me. Velocities haven’t looked great (though wind would be right on the leading edge) but haven’t even seen any reports of wind damage associated with it moving into western MA

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please hold that together into and thru this area 

It may tend to weaken, unless instability shoots up a bit out ahead of it but it’s in an area of higher MLCAPE now 

Kent/New Milford going to get the best goods 

12 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

@weatherwizhopefully chasing this line as it appears to be developing a bit of a bow near the SNE severe capital of Great Barrington.   @vortex95 allowed to still call S Weymouth the severe capital 

No Chase but will be outside hoping for some goods 

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Nice banana high. Sign me up for one of those this winter with low pressure developing in the deep South 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I agree to a point. Record strong niño forcing is a concern, but there’s a relatively SSS there. It’s hard to see a path to a very cold winter, but snow is a wildcard. 

Throw in the state of the PDO into the mix too. I haven't followed too closely the progression of the PDO since spring/summer but it seems to me like the -PDO has re-established itself to some degree...can't really strong Nino's with this degree of PDO regime. 

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan's station calling for 60 mph gusts????

That can't be ruled out, though probably rather localized. These setups are always extremely trickly...you have to respect the dynamics and you don't need a ton of CAPE but you need enough to combat the shear, otherwise the updrafts just topple over and it prevents vertical growth (big reason why these end up as low-topped events). One big discriminator in these events producing damaging wind gusts on a larger scale versus rather isolated is steep low-level lapse rates which we'll lack today. 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Rain has ended here-let's see if we can get any sun later to destabilize.

Not sure we really get much, if any sun today. Perhaps some local breaks but I don't think it will be anything meaningful in terms of destabilization. The destabilization of the atmosphere today is largely going to be due to the advection of increased moisture in the lower-levels and at the surface. The SPC noted weak mid-level lapse rates as a hindrance of instability because of some observed soundings, but not so sure I totally agree with that. Mid-level lapse rates may actually steepen some as the day progresses and that would help provide a bit of a boost. 

Better heating and cloud breaks will be just off to our southwest...though you in SW CT could get onto the northeast edge of cloud breaks, so perhaps a bit of an instability gradient will become established.  

Regardless we should see a line of heavy downpours with some localized embedded thunder/lighting and a quick burst of strong wind gusts. 

Anyways, could be a decent line that at least moves across western sections later. Curious as to how much lightning can be generated as well. One thing to watch as well is we'll see a sharp spike in dewpoints just out ahead of the line, so while instability numbers won't be eye popping we'll see rapid destabilization out ahead of the line...something that can enhance upward acceleration of parcels. 

what the hell is all of this crap about some monster coastal storm next week lol. 

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So what you’re saying is this years is very easy, and maybe they get the easy one correct? But last year was more difficult, and they flunked it. 

You can compare, just not a side-to-side comparison. To compare you'd need a bit of a complex statistical analysis 

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS is pretty cold Sun AM. Seems a little overdone in spots.

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions. 

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

To be fair it’s a basic strong nino forecast. Compare this year’s to 23-24 and 15-16 and then what the actuals were.

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.  

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's probably underdone.  

these types of science -based studies result in estimates.  Sophisticated as they may be compared to oh say ..., Kevin-types and their brilliant objective-based illustrations of what is going to happen to trees and building and stuff... , they are still based upon more linearly algebraic resolutions using available/reanalaytic metrical inputs.

what they don't include are the synergistic products of complex higher order energetic systems.   one question that immediately leaps to mind for me is the 'domino effect' thereof.   You get to a certain pervasive failure quotient and the weight just topples everything.  We actually observed something similar to this during the 2008 ice storm up there in N Worcester and Middlesex Co.  The margin towns that did record any icing, or if so... limited amounts, lost power by load balancing when substations reeled - often times safety measures built in cut regional grids... This is particularly true in tangled messes of major events where regions are a labyrinth of partially mixed with total and non disrupted messes.  Everyone goes down in that region...

I'm sure their science takes that into account, but when events get in that GOAT range ...there's almost always unexpected emergent properties. 

100% agreed. 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

There as actually a presentation similar to this at the Tri-State Weather conference this past Saturday.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday could be interesting. Wind fields are strong. It's not out of the question there could be some strong winds if tstms form. Instability overall is lacking, but it is a dynamic system. 

The CAA winds Saturday diminished some. Still could be 40 to maybe near 50mph.

Maybe a SYR special today?

Sucks instability on Friday will be limited because those are some insane dynamics and a vigorous shortwave approaching. Maybe get a risk for some strong storms along the coast where dews could sneak into the lower 60s. 

You know you've entered Fall (or Spring) when MAV/MET differ by 7-8-9°F or more on forecast high temps (particularly when a warmer than average llvl airmass is in place).

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Was saying that in the NNE thread earlier haha. I've been skeptical, but there's a solid cross guidance signal for flakes up here this weekend. GFS was pretty aggressive along with its AI counterpart. Euro not as much. I like seeing the lingering moisture after the front. We can produce nicely on that. 

Not sure about the Tug however, as this looks like more NW flow than westerly off Ontario, if you're talking LES potential. 

That is a very robust shortwave digging into the region with some healthy moisture in place and rather steep lapse rates. 

Wasn't looking at LES in this case...just more elevated/terrain enhancement. 

Would not be surprised to see multiple inches of accumulating snow for ski areas on Saturday and maybe even grassy accumulation accumulations lower elevations of NNE. Wonder if the Tug hill could pull off several-plus inches 

Ughhhhh I knew this was bound to happen. They’re just getting bigger and deadlier here. Adapting to our climate and just relocating from other areas. 
 

https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-haven/venomous-spider-species-documented-in-connecticut-for-the-first-time/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_WTNH_News_8&fbclid=IwZnRzaAUzh-hleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBwZG9mBWZkaWQWUP0fgIBV4YT5gAujHlk__9yP03ilPXNydGMGYXBwX2lkCjY2Mjg1NjgzNzkAAR46RL7csvZP_EevojJ70Jc8_yzDkguN2GZP_lfF_0i9ITCVH690hW3pJK0g_w_aem_afEitbdedFZMbV3_6lCdUA