weatherwiz

25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

@weatherwiz

this is for you

https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/s/AGDgPsOKPQ

 

Holy shit

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least your area had July 4th. There has been nothing river east and even over most of NNE.

 

People are asking why the pattern has been more S and W of New England. I'll include SW CT. If I go by memory, it seems like we've had a lot of W-NW flow and this low to mid level theta-e boundary over the OH valley and at times pushing into the NYC area. So while we had some warm and humid days, the real juice has been more to the SW. Storms love higher theta-e and it can't push far to the northeast if the flow is NW-SE. We never really had a ridge flex into New England....it's been to our southwest. 

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even today, look at the models. Whether it's 850 Td or theta-e...just gets cut off near NYC. That is one thing I have noticed.

Yup...precisely this. 

At least for this period, there were some hints the end of last week we could see a bit more flexing of the ridge into our region versus previous instances this summer but that did not happen. It actually looks to happen for Thursday's potential but we get screwed over other ways lol. 

Its really amazing how when you look at this from a climatological perspective, more often than not, this is exactly what happens and the cutoff is always pretty much the same exact geography. Pretty fascinating from a science perspective 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just shocking 

We don't get multiday severe potential very often but when we do, usually we'll get one day to work out. I mean southwestern CT certainly has some shot early this evening. There still may be some time to get Thursday to work but probably unlikely. But Thursday is quite complex...I may even be incorrectly evaluating and saying 850 front being the issue. 

Maybe we want to hope tomorrow night isn't as robust and we don't have to deal with thick overcast and precip to begin the day on Thursday. It's very possible this may be overstated too with the more robust precip going to our southwest where better instability is. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see how tomorrow night and Thursday can fail 

Unfortunately not looking good. 

Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west.

on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope. 

Beautiful environment to our southwest...sigh. 

Well hopefully at least some good storms can fire across southern NY/PA/NJ...maybe even scrape Fairfield County 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He refuses to look at models or any empirical data . It’s nothing 

This is some insane rain with this though. Getting crushed with the rain today

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Not sure much wind with this...instability is most elevated and there probably is at least some sort of inversion rooted above the sfc.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully that line generates ltg and hits Kevin’s house. At least he can finally get central air when he rebuilds. 

Might be just enough elevated CAPE to get a few lightning strikes

Does look like though some stronger velocities being sampled by LCH

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Exactly!  And it is why my posts have been they way they have been since last night.  Not being a negative Nancy, just see thing for what they are. The signs of RI are just not there, and those signs are not subtle (data rich area Edouard is in, so higher confidence what exactly is going on w/ the storm over time).  And you see what recon just found, despite sat looking better, and radar looking *much* better.  If you just showed me a radar of Edouard now in a vacuum, I would say, "that's probably a strong TS or min HU w/ that kind of banding and a partial eyewall!"

And yet NHC just stays the course on the 12z update stating RI is imminent.  Sometimes they prioritize consistent messaging over what is actually happening evolving in real time, just not to confuse the public.  I can get that, but it really not being 100% truthful IMHO, and we all see the same data, so there are going to be some that call NHC out unprofessionally on social media for clicks and likes, among other things.  So that's the flip side of not changing messaging as the event evolves -- it invokes criticism that in this case is legit.  Even when it is not legit, that still presents challenges on a PR and overall perception level.

For some odd reason it seems many are trying to will this thing into strengthening. I made a post about this in the SNE form yesterday but on Twitter (since Sunday really) there's been nothing but posts from many people trying to find any reason to justify its strengthening and taking off. I mean sure this has become better organized better structurally over the past few days but is a 40 mph storm lol. Its been nothing but posts about satellite presentation, convection and how "the look means its strengthening". 

Weird

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday could be interesting, but as usual too many variables to nail down. 

Shocked we don't have a marginal 

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR has some hard right turners going through CT this afternoon.  6z was violent, we shall see if we can get some good ones today. 

yeah some of these HRRR runs overnight definitely are intriguing. 

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Can’t say I’ve ever seen a hurricane watch for a 35 kt system roughly 50 miles from landfall 

I was a bit shocked when I saw that this morning and wording of "significant strengthening expected" prior to landfall. Certainly we've seen this develop a nice looking circulation but there's been little evidence of any potential for significant strengthening. Even latest recon passes aren't finding much. Satellite presentation and evolution doesn't really scream that either. You never know with these Gulf systems though...who knows, we probably get hurricane winds that extend 3 miles from the center  

Updated to extend to Thursday. NAM, GFS, and Euro are in agreement in the warm sector expanding northeast on Thursday as the upper-level trough swinging across southeastern Canada along with the eastward progression of the parent low help lift the surface warm front into the region. Pretty strong shear too. 

Tuesday looks good for southeast propagating storms at least across western CT with some severe risk. Much of Wednesday is dry but may see a round of rain and storms move across the region Wednesday night. Thursday we get stuff ahead of the actual front. 

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Quite the temp gradient b/w NJ and CT upper 80's to 60's eastern half of CT

Yup...definitely want to focus where that sets up. It could be an active night tomorrow night, especially if activity across NY/NE PA is more widespread than modeled. That's some hefty elevated instability moving overhead later in the evening. When you have large MUCAPE building in and either weak forcing or already established convection...convection tends to either persist or continue blossoming. 

2 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

How's this any different than winter snow chances?

No stupid snow maps to post when it comes to tropical  

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It’ll probably organize enough to get a name, but it’s still not there structurally. Hard to RI when you have no inner core. 

This would be 2/5 of my NS forecast. The next three need to be hurricanes. 

Its been nothing but "a, b, and c look good, good sign its strengthening"  

"Thunderstorms blossoming around the center....good sign it's strengthening"

"Angle of the thunderstorms...good sign it's strengthening"

"Compact storm, just needs to spin more...good sign it's strengthening"

But yeah this probably finds some way to get TS winds for about 7 minutes before moving inland

Twitter is so ridiculous with weather. Everyone trying so hard to justify why PTC 5 is going to strengthen and going nuts with how the convection looks, how because its a tight circulation so all it needs to do is increase its spin, and blah blah blah...meanwhile recon is extremely meh lol. Its literally been happening yesterday with people trying to will this to just take off

That is some environment that will be evolving just west of CT tomorrow afternoon and probably into western CT late afternoon/early evening. Guidance isn't showing a ton developing, forcing isn't particularly strong and looking at several soundings, the LFC is quite a bit higher than the LCL. With this said, that promotes an environment for discrete storms and any storms that fire in the afternoon could be particularly nasty. Probably not strong enough llvl shear for a strong tornado but not out of the question should a supercell become mature enough, especially when considering potential for boundary interactions 

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Gas prices jumped considerably this morning. Winning.

One gas station up the road went from $3.66 to $3.99 in a few days...if even a few days 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah Thursday beat potential but tomorrow will have some. CT favored.

It's usually difficult for us not to get at least one day in when we have these type of setups. Tomorrow is going to be interesting to see play out, its been a heavy mix on how tomorrow evolves. A good part of CT may end up right along the instability gradient

Maybe a delayed but not denied situation with Thursday potentially being the day for some strong-to-severe storms.

But tomorrow is going to be a pure almost nowcast 

Lutchfield/Fairfield County definitely in the game for Tuesday on the 12z NAM. Right along the warm front and instability gradient and also perfectly positioned where shear/instability are maximized. This is going to be a really fun nowcasting situation 

Morning clouds/rain could certainly a bit of a damper on Tuesday but nonetheless the environment will be supportive so just have to see what kind of recovery can occur. Potential will be NY/PA/western MA/western CT. Unless of course the warm front can sneak a bit farther northeast but the Tuesday AM stuff probably negates that as well. 

Missing the warm nights. Standing outside with shorts/short-sleeved shirt not very fun tonight