weatherwiz

Guess we'll just call this the storm that could have been. I for sure thought this was going to come up the coast days ago but totally wrong on that. dendrites post this morning illustrated why it wasn't happening and those signals with trough, dPVA, and dynamics were there the whole time to tell the story. 

Starting to even wonder if this ends up being a bit of a bust within the mid-Atlantic. Getting harder to argue against the convection stealing the show

Lots of disturbing posts today, makes me wonder if some are suffering from too much carbon monoxide intake. Might need to clear snow away from outside vents? 

west, west baby. Come west to me baby

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

yup. Between the multitude of moving parts, the poor data-region the primary feature is coming out of, the potential spin-up of convective-driven vorticity east of the main feature and whether or not that can gain latitude and the overall anomalous nature of the entire setup, this would be the storm to catch people by surprise

I'm more concerned with the upper level evolution, and I think moves from things such as the GFS are closer to producing here than it may seem, so I've not yet given up hope, but I'll admit it definitely is much more annoying than last storm where we knew we were getting hit, just trying to fine-tune all the smaller details.

He're we're trying to fine-tune the entire damn system lol

100% agreed. 

Overall, it seems very unlikely we see the changes needed but it's much closer than it appears. I also hate comparing storms, particularly different setups and this is nothing like last week. This is a totally different animal and additional processes being added. 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The whole setup sucks...trough is so far east....GFS shifted west with the trough but the low still escapes with convection...we need a wholesale shift west in successive model cycles. 

The trough being too far east may be the overarching death killer here. I feel like the GFS is being way too aggressive with that convection, both with scale and intensity. If we remove that, we end up with a much more consolidated system that comes up the coast a bit closer but the trough probably would yield a result just favorable enough for areas towards the Cape

This reminds me of those times when the GFS goes nuclear with MCS' moving across the midwest and brings them into the Northeast only for reality to be a few circus clouds 

If we are ever going to see a substantial model bust in this day in age of models inside of 72 hours, it will be with this setup

really want to give this until 12z tomorrow before totally writing off...well at least when talking about back towards and west of the CT River. This is going to be a really close call in the end

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Not going to bode well this run.

don't count your chickens before they shit.

We might have something with development right off the coast

That is a ton of convection chasing on the 12z GFS through 72 oh my

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would prob still get eastern areas I think…but I’m not gonna spend more than about 30 seconds extrapolating the 84h NAM. 

That's still about 30 seconds too long

5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

One thing for sure…We haven’t had a winter this cold in several years. And I didn’t miss it 

I've actually changed my perspective on this and I think the massive snow cover has helped with that. When I was outside the other night, it brought back some good memories. A deep snow cover with frigid temperatures and a gusty wind...kind of makes you remember what winter should be. Not to mention just soaking up the landscape around you. It also reminds me of the Little House on the Prairie Book series...I can image myself in the Dakotas in the early days during blizzards and frigid temperatures. 

Also, this will make the warm weather that much more welcomed and enjoyable when we reach that time

I think I need somewhere around 75" to hit 100 so I am truly hoping this can be something that produces 18-24" and then we can get a few more 18-24" in February and maybe a 12-18 in March 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They put the track through the center of max snowfall. lol

maybe they used the wrong product to communicate what they meant

Or they just aren't very bright.

Let's go with the latter 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s not the actual low track…not sure why it’s depicted that way. The low actually starts off the coast of Savannah (after a weak vestige near FL panhandle 12 hours earlier) It’s not over interior NC and moving northeast. 

Using snow maps to indicate storm track or trends in anything is just lol

That double low feature continues yielding some big challenges. If that isn't a real thing this mostly comes west...but you never know with those features 

I'm kind of glad models are south and east at this point. Means we don't have to be bombarded with snow maps every 5 seconds and then every 3 seconds when you get the Kuchera showing 40" 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Violently agree with the bolded, Some time it giveth, But many times it taketh.

What really sucks about this is it is nearly impossible to gauge the validity of that aspect until real time (or at least not until within 6-12 hours). 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just using your chart here...

yeah, it's almost to the point of frustration that the models appear to be disconnecting the wave -space arguments in their physical result/processing. That ridge being over Idaho ...if anything that presupposes a position near WV with that tough axis.. which would probably parlay quite favorably.     That's a bizarrely stretched looking gunk L/W filled with distractions...

Also, the size of that high pressure system is massive, stretching from the upper-Midwest into southeast Canada southwest into the southern Plains...that as well argue for something farther north and west for track 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Your getting both of those pinwheeling to the NNE, Lot of these models have this dual low structure, Models struggling to where to place the low at the surface off the coast.

Yup...this is a model weakness in these airmasses. Forecast models don't have the necessary resolution to accurately handle this so you'll see the models just want to put the low where the warm air is. 

We certainly can't rule out a dual low structure either and there is a chance that this system has more in the way of convection associated with it which adds additional problems (as we know)

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Dig more west, or not so deep?  I think we want closure closer to Norfolk rather than Myrtle Beach.  Maybe digging west accomplishes the same thing?

Yeah we definitely do not want this thing closing (at H5) too early. I think we'd even want it to be a bit farther north than Norfolk in a perfect world. But if we can dig that trough slightly more west and deeper that would certainly help tug this west a bit. However, thinking about this more closely, I question as to whether we would want this to dig more west and deep...if that happens we could run the risk of tracking this up right along the coast or even slightly inland. 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No doubt it’s a great looking set up…at least as it currently stands, but we all know these little things change as the said timeframe approaches, and that’s where the uncertainty lies.  Hopefully they change slightly in our favor. 

Agreed, my guess is we see changes in our favor. 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That ridge out west(with its apex over the chimney of Idaho) in that depiction is in a perfect spot…we like to see that.  Hopefully it can get up here, and not slip OTS.  

There isn't much I really see, at least on the large-scale, that indicates this would go out to sea. Now, that doesn't mean this can't end up tracking far enough away that it only grazes the coast but I don't see a totally OTS solution here. I like the building -NAO too, particularly west based. I guess ultimately it would be best to get the 500 energy to dig slightly more west into Alabama but not a big issue at this stage

Keep in mind the struggle the models have with the shallow nature of Arctic airmasses. Where the GFS and even Euro are developing the sfc low off the Carolina coast...probably shift that 50-75 miles farther northwest along the with whole storm track. I think this one has a great chance of passing right over the benchmark. The only thing I don't want to see is this bomb to something into the 980's or lower.