weatherwiz

Sucks the strongest shear lags behind the front Friday. but with large CAPE/a bit of an EML we could still pull off some big storms, its just they would be more pulse type and may not be organized 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday is an interesting day. I think the best instability probably rides into New York State and New Jersey possibly into western southern New England, but there’s an EML that’s gonna be trying to move in and Northwest flow aloft. Some of the soundings  looked pretty impressive, especially on the nam yesterday. That’s a day to watch especially in western areas.

Was waiting for your comment on this! 

Its intriguing for sure. 

35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM. 

ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. 
 

I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products. 

Violence Thursday on the 18z NAM. 

Well I guess its cooler if you're going to compare 86 versus 93 lol. 

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I didn't look at the AI's. I have not been particularly impressed with them lately. That seems extremely overstated to me

Doesn't really seem like a cool(er) look to me, outside of perhaps any post fropa but we probably go right back to above average

27 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Roadtrip to Binghamton? 

NAM is really aggressive with an expansive EML advecting into the region. GFS not so much. A little nervous on this because the NAM tends to overdo these, however, you throw an EML in Thursday with a shortwave trough moving through and there will be some severe storms. Lots of details to iron out these next few days!

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Midwest im guessing.. nothing seems interesting here

Could be here. Probably be evening though but can’t rule out afternoon stuff, especially west 

Thursday could be a big day 

why can't we get this

The amount of wind we have had this spring has been absolutely annoying. It seems like every day is gusting 15-20+ mph. 

The winds along the leading edge from yesterday in New Britain 

In East Longmeadow. Nice light show

Pretty solid! Probably gusted 45-50…maybe towards 55

Come to your daddy 

Went to New Britain. Got a nice view from walnut Hill Park. Shelf incoming soon 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr has a derecho moving through CT

Actually debating headed to BDL  

But its about a 2 hour drive so would have to make the call by 4

Starting to debate on having to head south. Have a spot at Mt. Greylock. RRFS had been showing a good line coming through S VT but nothing has developed yet and not seeing much in the say of a CU field on satellite. Even wondering if CT might be solid with that NE PA stuff

It is getting HOT in the sun. 

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

12 and 3 km NAM soundings show half-decent spinner potential in VT, but these models tend to overdo it a bit.  Small window 4-6pm for Scott supercells in VT.

If we can keep the sfc wind direction more S/SE there may be some transient supercells involved. LCL heights are really high though.

16 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

15z RRFS shows the classic "cell ahead of line" near RUT.  15z HRRR looks somewhat better that prev runs for the SQLN holding on better farther E.

Satellite is encouraging.v

Just made it to the Bennington welcome center

I'll take the 3km please