weatherwiz

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these are also means that we're looking at... it wouldn't be shocking that there's some washing out ongoing

for example. members that don't develop a strong -NAO are likely complete torches with very high E US heights. however, ones that do, and especially the ones that shift the block more west, might actually just have a cold airmass in the east. wish there was a way to look at EPS members like that

I wouldn't be shocked if that ridging in the south is too smoothed out too. I would wager probably more of a ridge axis into the upper Mississippi Valley which could then argue for some lower heights in the Northeast The overall structure of that trough across western Canada's coast will be a big player too 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

The stratosphere is certainly going to try and help get us a favorable Arctic domain. 

I hope its 85F on April 17 so I can watch playoff hockey outside with just a jersey on 

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I doubt it would.  

It isn't about hitting climo averages.  I think most would sign for a 3 footer and then spring.  I'd sign for 1" a day for the next 4 mos myself.

My recommendation for those people then would be to move to the Sierra's or Cascades lol. I mean if we're active with 3-4" events and people are still complaining then something is wrong. Surely we all want the big storm but there has to be some sort of realistic expectation too. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I bet a marginal goes up for us on Friday... wouldn't be shocked. 

I could see a marginal get thrown up for far eastern CT/RI/SE MA. the NAM would certainly argue it but sometimes the NAM gets a little overzealous with elevated in stability in these setups. NAM does have a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates (and greater CAPE) but I think its overdone in that regard. The key for eastern areas will be little to no shower activity ahead of the main area

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

While the longwave pattern is kind of ugly (and it’s an unstable look), the shear number of shortwaves flying through the flow will give us some chances. So while the probability of any one of these succeeding in being a 4”+ snow event is pretty low, if we have several chances, maybe one of them delivers. 
 

Most of us would be fine with a couple inches that gets us to Christmas but once the holiday has passed, I want some bigger systems. 

Yeah I agree, I definitely would like to start getting some bigger systems, but if we can pull off a good two week stretch where we get 3-4 systems in the 2-4" range...I would hope that makes everyone a bit happier lol. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. 
 

Has another messy system on 12/26 too. 

The 27-29 period looks like it could be interesting 

Well this isn't fair. Damn you Idaho 

Just now, Fozz said:

When is it reasonable to expect something more than a basic 1-3” event?

when you're in the Cascades 

2 hours ago, CT Rain said:

The models yesterday didn't really have this thin layer of moisture at 850.

The NBM does really well with sky cover forecasts I think. Out of MOS/NBM, the NBM was the only guidance bringing in these clouds through the day today followed by some clearing late afternoon/evening then increasing late. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.

I have these thoughts too. I've been creating composites of SSTs focusing on the Pacific for EL Nino/La Nina dating back to 1900 with a focus on the WPWP. There's lots of studies out there discussing how it has expanded over the last 2-3 decades along with the extension of the WHWP. 

But even with the Nina look...those 29-30C temps are extending well east, just past the dateline. 

Definitely sufficient to sustain strong convection around the dateline which I believe is something that enhances ridging across the NPAC?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.....the veil of cluelessness will allow some to stare at guidance cross-eyed all season and weenie anyone who suggests that it may not snow, but climo is a useful tool.

Do you have any blog posts which have explored the snowless periods of previous decades? 

I am really curious how this stretch compares/contrasts to those periods. I've always been under the impression those periods were the product of colder/drier winters (or moreso drier) while as this stretch we are still pulling off subpar seasons even when we're cold/wet. I mean who cares if we've gone through this before in the 1980's if its for completely different reasons. 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you one thing...if I come out of this month in single digits for snowfall, my outlook on the season will absolutely shift. I can only find one cool ENSO season since 1950 that did that and ended up sniffing normal, and that is 1966, which was a cool-neutral year.

Despite the -PDO having leveled off, I think its still severely screwing us with shifting the East Asian jet north. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's getting exhausting and tedious....start to lose intrigue when you just know it isn't going to snow, regardless of what happens. My god.....if this season does it again, this will surpass the 80's-early 90s.

I legit am nervous. I know its early, but in the grand scheme of things, we're already assessing how the pattern looks to evolve post Christmas into New Years. If that period ends up sucking then we'll be looking towards mid-January...and so forth. 

I truly believe we need to completely flush out the entire atmosphere...we probably need a good multi year stretch where ENSO is a non factor and then hope we are truly on the -PDO decline. At some point the odds have to return to our favor but the background state is far from it, IMO.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nice Sonoran heat release for Tippy.

Don't get him going  

Wouldn't mind getting this pattern in July.

Monopoly Weather Chance Card: Take a ridge on the derecho express

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your skinny ass does not have enough meat.

Thank God

When I was walking out to the car this morning a massive owl flew overhead. Took me a second to realize what it was...thought it was a pterodactyl at first and was about to dive in a bush 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Denver is like 65-70 for a week lol. Wow.

Stagnant air too. Air Quality alerts for all the weed smoke hanging at ground level?

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Rhode Island looks bumpy as well

Sure does. in fact, some of the greatest gust potential was on PVD sounding lol. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

9/10 times you can take the under on those clown gusts and be correct.

There is going to be lots of precipitation around which will hold back gusts overall. If we had little precip ahead of the main line and even got some cloud breaks...we would rip pretty good. This could happen locally, probably better shot towards interior eastern Mass. But I also think there is room for thunderstorms embedded within the line moving into far eastern CT, RI, eastern Mass and that will have to be watched.

Bufkit isn't terribly impressive in terms of wind gust potential Friday. Very weak lapse rates present and a saturated profile. Sustained winds though looks solid...could be sustained 30-35 across the Cape. This isn't to say there is 40-50 mph gusts potential but we'll need convection and need to see some drying within some of the profiles. The typical elevated areas will gusts well

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just can't win lately...if there isn't blocking, it cuts...if there is, it shreds or sends it south.

I feel like too we haven't had "classic" blocking...but I think a big part of it too is blocking is much more beneficial for southern streams working up the coast. blocking with northern streams just results in one of two things, which you mentioned, cutting if the s/w is too strong and shredding the s/w or sending south if it is too weak.

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

OT, but interesting.

 

Wow, don’t recall seeing that outside of Cali before 

Weeklies are warm for January?

big month of cold and snow incoming