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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by weatherwiz

  1. Just now, WinterWolf said:

    You said we’d loose some in the beginning here’…I dint think we did.  But it’s all good. It’s a wall of snow. 

    yup...what was lost was negligible but that is what was going to happen...come in like a wall where the banding outside of the banding is a bit of a different story. Like I'm waiting for snow here despite being under some returns. will take a bit here until those heavier echoes push east

    • Like 2
  2. saw this pop up live on Radarscope!!!

    MD 2276 graphic

       SUMMARY...Heavy snow bands will spread/develop southeast across
       upstate NY toward southern New England over the next few hours. Snow
       rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected.
    
       DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing
       southeast across western NY/PA early this evening. Latest
       water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel vort max southwest of
       Syracuse, and this is reflected well in radar data. Multiple heavy
       snow bands have developed ahead of this vort max, strongly
       influenced by low-level warm advection, extending across upstate NY
       into the lower Hudson Valley. Boundary layer moistening supports
       this with dew points now rising into the mid teens (F) where snow
       rates are increasing. Over the next few hours snow rates are
       expected to increase downstream across western CT and Long Island,
       largely in response to this well-defined short wave digging toward
       the northern Middle Atlantic. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr can be
       expected prior to the short wave passage.
  3. 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

    I don’t think it tapers off by 10 or 11.  Maybe the real heavy stuff does, but it will go well past that time with accumulating snow imo. 

    I don't know. We dry out the DGZ very quickly so precipitation is going to shut off quickly. A reason why I think many could actually end as a bit of sleet or freezing drizzle. But this is also why I think 18z NAM QPF is out too lunch...still has QPF falling when we've essentially dried out the DGZ. If we're still snowing past that time its Arctic sand and won't accumulate 

    • Crap 1
  4. Not sure if this means much but I don't think the dewpoints were as low as modeled, we still have quite the dewpoint depression but maybe this will help to saturate more quickly?

    But we can already start watching everything evolve in real time. Pretty strong surge of WAA at 700mb just to our west

    image.thumb.png.befa76c9ebd5bf0eb028b8df2eaec1c2.png

    and we have our established zone of 700mb fronto 

    image.thumb.png.9376e64dea38ace7f07164cfd17eaee9.png

    Two things we're going to want to watch through the afternoon are

    1. How strong does the WAA remain 

    2. How quickly/when does it begin to weaken?

    But this look right now is certainly promising for western areas 

    • Like 2
  5. 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    West of I-91 definitely the sweet spot for CT

    I am going to LOVE tracking this one in real time. At this point we can put the models away, put the QPF maps away, and stop beating "QPF trends" with a hammer. None of that really matters because it's all about how the banding is going to evolve, where the banding traverses, and whether we see multiple or even several bands. So it all comes down to the evolution of the mid-level with respect to frontogenesis and the 700mb warm front. 

    This one is going to have major surprises and there is no way to pin those down, even at this time frame. You may see a scenario where you have a narrow swath of 6-7" and you go 10-15 miles on either side of this swath and totals are only 2-3". There is just no way to portray this on a map so the best you can probably do is a larger range and understand there is an equal chance of ending up on the lower range (perhaps even an inch or two below) as there is of ending up towards the higher range. 

    With this I don't think I'll make any changes to my map from yesterday (don't even have time anyways). If anything I would probably adjust the boundaries of the totals maybe but I can't see adding in like an area of 6-9 or 6-10". Not sure how widespread that will be and that is going to happen where the best banding is. Other than this I think its definitely a good 4-7" for everyone but there will be reports as low as 3-4".

    • Like 1
  6. 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

    Sweet jesus-let's hope

    Lower Hudson Valley into Fairfield County I think may end up in the sweet spot. I was really thinking there was room for some of the heavier banding to end up pretty far north like the NAM has. Even though the NAM is kind of alone there are two things the NAM are great at sniffing out, warm layers and banding. But the NAM has seemed to back off on the intense fronto band it had on some earlier runs but also argues for multiple bands. 

    But one thing that is going to enhance things in the Lower HV into Fairfield County will be the proximity to the mix line and 700 warm front. It will really dump here. If anyone is going to end up with something along the lines of 8-10" it will be within this area. 

    I am wondering if the sharp cutoff line will end up from like just west of Springfield to around Hartford south to like Guilford. 

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