weatherwiz

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing that. Everyone will rain but only a very narrow area will get anything of bigger significance. There will be a small zone that trains .. but it’s nothing widespread 

The big difference in this versus the previous setups is this rain isn't spread out over a long duration. This will be the type of stuff that produces 2-4" in 1-2 hours versus several-plus hours. 

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Folks is cocked . Tomorrow is one of those have/ have nots days. Most turns get a downpour or two and a few that train get 2” and that’s it. Very meh setup with no sun 

Rainfall rates will be quite impressive tomorrow and the initial round of rain is going to be on the widespread side and then we see what we can develop during the day in terms of convection. You have a stout southerly LLJ into the region with 8850 dewpoints +16 to +17C and PWAT values between 2.20" and 2.40". There is no capping and you have the LFC right about the same height as the LCL. The radar is going to be lit up with rain and continuous development of downpours and embedded thunder throughout the day and this will train across a large area. 

I'm shocked there aren't flash flood watches out or flood watches. I bet tonight into tomorrow evening has more reports of flooding than the past few setups combined. 

Not a bad looking core. Surprised at least no SPS on it

Thundering here!!!! 

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Euro also has something just not as robust.. ICON also faintly seeing it 

I'd actually be shocked if the ICON wasn't  

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday could be interesting. We are juiced to the teets as far as. Moisture goes. If we can get decent shear like gfs has, could be severe in spots. At the least could be prolific rain and maybe decent ltg with those dews.

Pretty classic wet microburst look on soundings if we can get anything to materialize 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Garbage model 

Looks like a typical GFS fantasy storm 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. 

Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. 

That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues.

Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. 

Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. 

Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. 

Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well of the East Coast seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years. 

 

Great stuff,

are all these plots from the University of Miami. I love these wind shear/instability plots 

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Something will pop in the subtropics eventually, but this ain’t it.

Today was actually the first day I started thinking about my annual peak season forecast. It’ll be a dead basin this season, but how dead is TBD. 

I was doing some digging last week and some of the extended guidance seemed to want and relax wind shear across the MDR a bit, however, I wasn't particularly sold and was wondering if that was a product of guidance in the extended favoring climo and wanting to decrease shear as we get closer to peak climo. Waters in the MDR are also pretty meh. Will continue to be a focus for home brew, especially as we start getting more active with fronts. 

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

IDK some models have hints of it besides the GFS..  would be OTS anyways but I'm going on a 3 hour fishing trip out of Seabrook NH next Saturday so would be rough 

Water temperatures are way too cold once you quickly get north of NC and there will be a lot of upwelling early next week.

You would need probably a high end 3 or 4 approaching the Carolina coast and rapidly accelerate northward to get a cane hit here. Otherwise any system is would transition to extra-tropical or sub-tropical extremely quickly. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday out in NY state but front may stall here Monday.

Yup...have to see exactly how quickly the front moves and where it stalls. Just based off the look its possible GFS may be a bit too fast with it...although the 6z GFS might be hedging towards something I'd lean towards. But that is a stout LLJ with PWATS well over 2" region-wide. 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday night and Monday could be interesting. 

Yup. 

That's a setup to where you have to worry about flash flooding being a concern over a greater area. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

wow

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cut the size double the price. Now garbage 

McDonalds overall is awful now...not that it was ever particularly great but its extremely overpriced and significantly worse quality. Can let to to like Applebees or Chilis and get a better burger dinner for only a few extra bucks. The McDonalds across from BDL isn't bad though. Had a double quarter pounder from there not long back and it was great.  

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully the McDonalds wizzy eats his filet o’fish at in Troy is underwater. 

Now you have me craving that. Haven't had one of those in a while. 

Dumping here in Windsor. Was hoping we could get a lightning strike out of this

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wiz, are you seeing what's happening around Albany?  

Looking at the ARI chart for the Albany area, for a 24 hour period a 500yr ARI is about 8.25" and 9.25" for 1000yr ARI. At a 90% confidence interval--so the ranges are a bit broader. 

https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=ct

Yes, but that was within the area of where the highest potential for the greatest rainfall totals. Serious stuff there but rather localized and confined to one area. Basically a much needed rain for everyone with little flooding outside of some usual areas in Fairfield County around Bridgeport. 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Again?   Good lord

Very slow moving cold front becoming parallel to the upper flow and potential for a wave to develop along it. Deep southerly flow out ahead of it so a continuous fetch of moisture. See what happens but these is how you can get widespread 3-4" rain amounts and get those areas of 6-7"+

Now Sunday into Monday is something that can be a legit flash flood concern 

I think mosquitos have evolved to the point to where they don't care anymore. As long as its above 50 they will be out looking for blood. Dry conditions, humid conditions, don't matter to them anymore 

Was intrigued in potential for a strong or two within CT today should anything pop but I wonder if there is a window early afternoon for a localized damaging wind gust or brief tornado across SE MA. 

An flooding yet outside of some random Bridgeport roads where the drains are clogged from McDonalds wrappers and bullet shell casings? 

That's some serious heat for the desert Southwest later this week 

Just dropping by to add this