weatherwiz

I wouldn't be surprised to see the euro come back the other way a bit tomorrow but something like this run may not be too far off from what occurs 

the 12z GFS bufkit for ORH is odd. I don't really put too much stock into the precip type but it has this look as heavy ZR. It's more than likely a lift thing but it's still funny to see. 

but then has this  as heavy snow 

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Are you saying for your backyard or that's the ceiling for the storm?

The storm but I also think I could get into that range. I think a lot would have to go right to really get a widespread area of 6-7-8-9” or so. But depending on how this evolves there could room for those higher totals a bit farther north into parts of NH

I’m going to say 4-6” is probably ceiling with this. Maybe some 7-8” reports if things really fall right and depending on the angle of the ruler into the snow. But I will wear a Santa hat and do cartwheels if I can get 4-5” Dec 2

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s definitely a better look for Worcester verbatim compared to previous GFS runs

Heavier rates along the Mass Pike might be enough to pump enough moisture higher up into the DGZ and get better growth going 

Just now, dendrite said:

Still pretty warm llvls for a lot of SNE. 

yeah 700mb is quite warm. snow growth would be pathetic except perhaps towards SNH or so and just north

Already huge differences by hr 60-66 at H5 compared to the 12z run yesterday. Not much difference versus 0z or 6z but its crazy to see such drastic differences in 24 hour

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward.  My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations 

I doubt its coming in this amped. Not even going to have any serious thoughts on this until Sunday morning or early afternoon. 

Looks like 18z gfs going to be quite amped...shocker. 

What differences between the GFS/Euro for next weekend  

GFS is like a carbon copy of the forecast for Tuesday, meanwhile the Euro looks more like a re-developing clipper with not much srn stream going on. 

But the two models aren't even on the same planet with how 500 looks across the country 

getting snow flurries here!

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s probably the future, but it has a ways to go. It’s still seems operationally unusable for now though.

Yup...more than likely the future...and then society is doomed once this stuff crashes because nobody is ever going to be taught basic understandings, principles, and concepts anymore (talking beyond weather here) and taught "how to build a model or algorithm" and things crash...nobody is going to know what to do because they don't have a computer telling them how. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. 

There are definitely alot of factors. But if you're still producing scenarios where solutions are inconsistent on a run-to-run basis and you have all sorts of jumping around, then what is the value in there? Unless like Ray said, "its used as another tool". But then all its doing is more than likely increasing uncertainty, not decreasing it. 

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing". 

I would wager we see the GFS tone down a bit as we get closer. I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw some other guidance even trend towards the GFS, only for guidance to back down Sunday evening.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday. 

The only thing I think Scott tossed was just the snow maps.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Jerry is in Chicago 

That's right...when was he coming back again, Early Dec? 

Unrelated but should be a nice hefty band of heavy snow that materializes and gets Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and probably even Chicago. Smack in the middle of the day too...travel will be a nightmare out that way. 

One big difference too between this year (at this time) compared to the last several years is water temperatures off the coast aren't as warm. Maybe not a huge deal now, but if we keep getting these pushes of colder air, this could be something to help drive the baroclinic zone a bit farther south and east than we've seen lately. Maybe instead of seeing lows go bonkers inland in the southeast or mid-Atlantic that happens farther east either along or just off the coast.

This will probably really crank under the heaviest banding, but outside of the heaviest banding it may be quite a struggle. I would presume that overall snowgrowth zone will be relatively high and majority of the lift is going to be centered within the 925-800mb layer. So if you're under the heaviest banding...it's going to rock. But not under the banding, it will be a totally different story. 

All things aside, both the Euro and GFS (at verbatim) would produce a pretty solid band of heavy snow. Way too early to really worry about the details and specifics. But in terms of potential snowfall amounts...it may be tough to get widespread warning criteria (maybe just barely warning snows but also depending on what's going on with the band and snowfall rates) due to how quickly it is moving but it's December 2nd and we're talking about potential for a large area to receive accumulating snow.  

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Calling this a bullshit pattern on Dec. 2 is pretty funny... Multiple mixture threats for at least interior SNE at this time of the year fine with me in terms of transitioning into winter.  

Gotta say...there are several who called for a flip to a more active pattern post Thanksgiving, and especially moving through the first week of December are looking good. Might not be much in the pipeline right behind this, however, the pattern is clearly transitioning to become more active in the upcoming weeks. All you can ask for right now. 

This is comparing the 6z GFS to 0z GFS (but for same time) but these differences are pretty insane