weatherwiz

13 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It can be confusing to the public and emergency management.  They have procedures in place when a SVR box is issued, and then 25 min later a TOR?  Just not very efficient.  Some may ask, does it mean anything to have "both" at the same time?  This is valid question for the non-met!  And what about watch box stats for a given area?

Just have two discrete boxes issued  at the same time.  N area TOR and S area SVR in this case.

I'd be curious if something similar has happened before...I would think it has (just not very common). This would be a good question for @OceanStWx

I actually kind of like this and this falls in line with the new modifications to the SPC outlooks. As we become more knowledgeable in the area of severe weather and with advancements in technology and modelling I think it's a great idea to be able to try and narrow down areas of "greatest" potential within an overall larger area.

I agree it can be confusing to emergency management and the public but this is where educating and communicating to emergency management and the public becomes critical. 

I would be willing to bet that was planned that way. Goal was to get the SVR out first and then hone down on an area where combination of ingredients overlapped most for a tornado risk. Probably why the time delay between the two...discussion on the SVR with local offices and then discussion on the area for the tornado watch 

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

The "barrier" is in place.
 

Yup...you're not getting anything going in that. When those two waves the NHC flagged last week crapped the bed that was a tell tale sign of where things stand. Environmental conditions aren't going to be getting any better either. 

Now folks may look at that and say we gotta watch the Gulf and northern Caribbean for home brew, but it should be noted the shear is only weak there because of the large scale ridging. Once that breaks down and we get troughs and fronts digging into the southern states that will change. 

nice looking supercell with a TDS down in Maryland 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday

These are always tough because it depends on exactly where the front stalls and where the low pressure tracks. 

I've felt the past few days the GFS may be a bit too aggressive with Saturday...at least with northwest extent of the heavier rain. We'll probably see some showers around though given weak lift

Looks like Hawaii dodging a bullet with Two-C

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Shit weather incoming. Damn it. Hopefully doesn't rain all weekend.

Very tough forecast. Definitely better potential for more in the way of consistent rain eastern CT and points east, particularly on Saturday. Sunday I don't think is a rain all day but there could be some room for some strong storms and downpours in the afternoon if we destabilize enough. Saturday could be like EOR type ordeal and Sunday WOR

The wind shear across the MDR is pretty nuts and probably isn't decreasing anytime soon. Would probably need to see some wave survive to around Cuba or Puerto Rico before it even has the chance of becoming organized. 

Really starting to think alot of these GFS "canes" are a mere factor of a heavy climatological skew so the GFS just wants to pump out hurricanes. 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

S coast south and west . Lots of mid level dry air inland 

The dry air is relative to the track and placement of the front. The overall heaviest of rain and thunderstorms is south (NJ/LI)...maybe CT coast but I think the llvl warm front is north enough to where we get precip to build inland. 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM 3k which is dry vs RRFS which has a squalline . I wonder which one wins 

I do think we see a solid precip shield of showers moving through later tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Didn’t SSTs down there hit 100 a couple years ago?

yeah like a 6" depth

That is quite the model battle tomorrow 

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dews near 70° are COC?

Absolutely 

57 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

How big is your ac unit  if that’s massive?

Its medium-sized I'd say...maybe even just a bit below 

What in the hell kind of spider is this? It’s freaking massive. Too scared to get any closer for a pic. I’m afraid he will lunge at me. He was watching my every move as is 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Does he have an archive of vis captures from great coastal misses over the North Atlantic?

This would probably be the resolution 

Speaking of satellite, I just noticed too Steve's site has satellite. Sick 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually have not used it, but I’m thinking about getting it because it looks really nice. I know someone who uses it and they love it.

I am really thinking about it as well. 

TornadoTitans also released something today https://titantrack.tornadotitans.com/ 

Not sure if there is an app but this seems pretty freaking cool too. I did anything that has easily viewable satellite 

These outflow gusts are pretty nuts 

Great write up by Ryan 

https://ryanhanrahan.substack.com/p/incredible-103-mph-wind-gust

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Warned now

72 dbz to 14k from Albany radar. Must be dropping at least 1.5" hail.

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Beautiful summer day out there

ehhh 6/10

Get temps up another 10 degrees and dewpoints another 7-10 then we can talk beautiful 

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Very localized. Only damage seems to be Lighthouse point and the area that says woodmont on your radar screenshot. 

I am really starting to wonder if a brief tornado touchdown between Milford/Orange and then touched down again around Lighthouse Point. We'll have to see if the NWS sends out anyone to survey. 

Looking through at mesoanalysis last night and there is nothing really jumping out. There had to have been some sort of mesoscale or microscale interaction to really enhance things. But this is really nuts...80-100+ mph straight-lines is not easy to accomplish, especially here and especially at night.