weatherwiz
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Posts posted by weatherwiz
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maybe even Ridgefiled, CT might not be a bad go to area today
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Might just go to Brewster, NY today and hope to get lucky. Probably just go around 1 and wait there and then hopefully can make minor adjustments if needed but giving its a Friday and storm timing...traffic won't be fun
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3 hours ago, vortex95 said:Wxwiiz mad he missed this??? CoastalWx proby just MEH! LOL.
Look what happened Thu just over the border in Pauling NY. Hail up to 2" in diameter.Serious wind damage right over the CT border in Quaker Hill NY.NW flow delivers! The LTG plot reminded me of July 10, 1989 a little.Also, June 20, 1995. See here:
We were hoping that cell would maintain as it went southeast but it weakened some.
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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:
Looks like many more chances the next 10 days or so!
thinking of around the Albany area tomorrow then we'll see what happens Sunday. Back to work Monday though and started summer classes this week which have me revising my life choices so not sure how much time for chasing I'll have rest of summer unless its super local
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Chased this stuff down to near Trumbull. Decent winds along with some very heavy rain and some lightning. Saw a few good CGs and the edge of the shelf driving along Rt 8 towards Waterbury. Back to Springfield soon!
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Stopped at BDL to assess. Going to head towards Torrington
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12 minutes ago, metagraphica said:
Channeling my inner Wiz right now...All this heat and dews and/or summer cancel talk is boring, are we getting t-storms tonight or not?
I think there will be some storms overnight, perhaps some sort of cluster moving through. Not really liking how unenthused CAMs really are with today or even tomorrow. Lack of forcing is a big killer but I would not be shocked if we can get at least widely isolated stuff later this afternoon and if lucky, a small cluster moving through overnight.
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OMG it hasn't rained for 3 hours....must be a drought!!!!!!!!!!!
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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:
Wow, that's a mean lookin Dercho bitch about to unleash fury on Iowa City
Phil will be going crazy today
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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:
May not have an EML but potential for steeper than usual lapse rates. This could be a significant wind event though if the strongest shear wasn’t lagging. With this said, given large CAPE and large dew point depression, there may be a nice swath of wind damage but with rapid weakening as the line enters western areas
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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:
GFS looks seasonably warm much of next week now…lower dews though.
AWT
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Sucks the strongest shear lags behind the front Friday. but with large CAPE/a bit of an EML we could still pull off some big storms, its just they would be more pulse type and may not be organized
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Thursday is an interesting day. I think the best instability probably rides into New York State and New Jersey possibly into western southern New England, but there’s an EML that’s gonna be trying to move in and Northwest flow aloft. Some of the soundings looked pretty impressive, especially on the nam yesterday. That’s a day to watch especially in western areas.
Was waiting for your comment on this!
Its intriguing for sure.
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35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:
Not sure it’s actually a shortwave though. Follow it backwards, looks like convectively driven vorticity to me. Don’t get me wrong, it can work, but worried we’re missing the S & L of SLIM.
ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,
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5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:
Are we relying on the previous days convection for a trigger?
That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned.
I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products.
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Violence Thursday on the 18z NAM.
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Well I guess its cooler if you're going to compare 86 versus 93 lol.
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12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
I didn't look at the AI's. I have not been particularly impressed with them lately. That seems extremely overstated to me
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Doesn't really seem like a cool(er) look to me, outside of perhaps any post fropa but we probably go right back to above average
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27 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:
Roadtrip to Binghamton?
NAM is really aggressive with an expansive EML advecting into the region. GFS not so much. A little nervous on this because the NAM tends to overdo these, however, you throw an EML in Thursday with a shortwave trough moving through and there will be some severe storms. Lots of details to iron out these next few days!
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14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
Midwest im guessing.. nothing seems interesting here
Could be here. Probably be evening though but can’t rule out afternoon stuff, especially west
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Thursday could be a big day
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why can't we get this
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The amount of wind we have had this spring has been absolutely annoying. It seems like every day is gusting 15-20+ mph.
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Junorch obs and discussion 2026
in New England
Posted
The RRFS did well yesterday for sure. In fact, some of the extended HRRR runs from the previous day hinted at that evolution and progression too. I would not be surprised if some of the guidance is underdone today as well. I think what helped yesterday was the cells which fired developed a strong cold pool and that helped the cluster materialize. I don't believe CAMs are great at picking up on that and I would not be surprised if we saw similar today. Also it looks like there are some residual outflow boundaries from yesterday as well.