weatherwiz

I feel like Detroit is just in a shit area for snow. Too far removed from Lake Michigan to get the good LES and generally too far northwest from low pressures that strengthen within the OV and moving out way. And with cutters...they are probably either just too far west for the goods or on the extreme western cutters for of a mix. Its probably clippers mostly for them? 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. Night and day on the GFS and Euro.

even mesos are a mess

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Only the GFS has soaking rain. It’s not hard at all. A shower or very light rain and call it a wrap 

for us, yes but I am looking at more of the region as a whole (including just to our south. I would have to think any north guidance with the heavier axis is wrong but we do get some increasing diffluence aloft late with PVA so we may see showers blossom (just not heavy rain...maybe coast gets heavier rain).

What an absolutely colossal joke guidance is with tomorrow night. Who event wants to forecast precipitation events 4-5 days out? It's been absolutely terrible. I can only wonder how many storms we'll see on guidance 4-5 days out and the snow maps of 8...10...12+ inches start flying out only for significant reductions inside of 48 hours. Or who knows...maybe we'll get some in the other direction where it looks like crap and then we're forecasting 6-10" all of a sudden  

There was alot of ice in my freezer this morning too, more than usual. 

that's because I turned on the ice maker 

44 minutes ago, klw said:

Who uses an umbrella when its windy? 

6th (I think) or 20th work for me.

Let's make this happen 

Can't even get good agreement on models on how tomorrow/tomorrow night evolve  

The sky is so clear. Couldn’t get this for the big aurora show???

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Mid December I’d think…

If we keep pushing back I can have fun with the running joke...

pattern is changing by December 1...no December 10...christmas...New Years, definitely mid January, Feb will be big...hello spring!

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's about right....  it takes about 20 days ( three weeks)...

I've shown this before but here.  This example was 2004.  Text back high altitude intrusion event, then nodal mass down welling with 3 or so week lag prior to AO forcing/'blocking'  This example actually first became evident over Xmas week prior to Jan 1 ... and the AO crashed by the 20th.

This is a great visual for context, thanks!

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But again ... it's may be splitting hairs.  If there's -WPO/-EPO through other means, you're ending up in the same consequence.

MJO could be a factor too...just looked at euro/gfs forecasts. Both have a robust wave propagating into 6/7. Obviously MJO forecasting is extremely iffy at this range, but when you look at the GFS/euro evolution around/shortly after Thanksgiving...its a pretty damn close match to what you would expect for a transition from 6 to 7. So if the MJO signal ends up being overplayed...you may see significant changes to guidance for this period.

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the other clue ... if this pattern change, which we're at t-minus 6 or 7 days from actively reconstructing, was preceded and ultimately coupled to a canonical SSW, the latter would have taken place by the first week of the month.   There was nothing...

 

So essentially, (let's say it is occurring now or in the beginning phases), we probably wouldn't see that troposphere respond probably until late December? 

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't like the fact that it isn't (first) emergent in the 10 hpa ...

This is appear to be up-welling from a very strong constructive interference at mid and upper level troposphere between Asia and the N. Pacific.

I'm not sure it matters?   ha.  I mean, whether it's a SSW --> down-welling in the canonical sense and total behavior, or... some sort of fantastic ridge resonance that's bulging the disk from the bottom, the end result may end up with the same consequence... You get blocking and jet distributions S of normal PV latitudes ...and that in this case (sometimes it affects/offloads in Europe/Eurasia preferentially) modeled to favor our side of the hemisphere for a cold mass delivery/jet.  

It's an interesting question...  but if you look at the GFS's 10hpa, no clue there's a warming event.  All SSWs in the monitoring history going back to the late 1970s start between 1 and 10hpa, and then down well.   This appears to be a "bulging" event.   Similar to what Kevin lacks on his anniversary nights...

 

I thought there was a weak signal up around 10 hpa which strengthened down around 30 hpa and especially 50 hpa? But I may have diagnosed incorrectly 

We definitely want to watch the progression of the progression of the stratosphere too. 

The good news is, we already have a warming event ongoing and across the Canadian Arctic 

If you were to follow this progression on Dr. Lawrence's site, its a longer duration event too with the peak occurring somewhere in the 300 hr time frame

This is important (when the peak occurs) because this would likely result in a PV split, which begins to occur towards the end of the run 

Getting a PV split will be critical because the main PV looks like it could end up over Europe, but if it splits, then we could get PV displacement onto our side of the hemisphere. 

Let's really, really hope the PAC plays out and evolves like that. But even if it doesn't...if it can at least evolve to a degree where we can continue to further develop that later in the month...that would be a big change. I also wouldn't mind maintaining a stronger SE ridge...coastal peeps may not want that and of course that could be playing Russian Roulette but that would at least help with an active storm track with ejecting shortwaves from the southwest...then we just hope for a perfect trough axis to our west.

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS unleashing some cold 

Yup...we briefly get a shot of cold air behind the post Thanksgiving time frame and then pup heights right back up ahead of the next system. But hopefully we really do start changing things after that front later in the first week of December. Praying we really do start building heights and ridging into the West so we stop with this building heights ahead of systems, then getting a shot of cold air, only to build heights up as the next trough digging into the west translates east. If we can sustained riding in the west...we won't have to completely worry about that...especially if we can then get some Arctic support on our side.

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging). 

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Or your washer fluid froze. Do you still have the warm season blue stuff in there?

Ahhh good thought, I do still have that in there. 

I also need to remember to shut off the valve to the outside water faucet. 

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pretty chilly this morning, 17F, Not fake.

Had heavy frost on the car this morning. Apparently I guess my windshield washer fluid was empty and my scrapper broke, so I had to waste 15-20 minutes waiting for window to defrost so I could drive 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Here 2003 and 1961 rule the roost

2003 was so much fun. That was my freshman year of high school and during lunch I'd be outside playing frisbee in the snow

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Basically consistent winter from beginning to end. No major breaks.

I’m not sure how you’d define that down there. Up here it’s a little easier to do if you base it on snow pack streaks. Like going DJFM with at least some X value of pack. We have the ability to minimize nasty cutters here like in 07-08. 

Yeah down here not really sure you can really define that. but this makes sense now. I remember a comment from FXWX yesterday that said it's exceptionally tough down here...which it is. 

catching up on late afternoon.

What is the definition people are using when it comes to wire-to-wire. I thought it was referring to getting slammed in back-to-back winters, but is that not the case? 

The HRRR I think is out to lunch. I was curious to see what the soundings looked like in the vicinity of the precip on the HRRR...did see some moistening of the profile but there is a quite a bit of dry air to overcome and being on the northern fringes of the precip shield...don't think that's going to do it. But maybe portions of Fairfield county are clipped with some better lvl moisture 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No, I expect some Ying and yang that far out but what I’m trying to tell Wolfie and others is that I want to see consistency in a decent pacific. So let’s see this 12 Z run hang on and either stay flat or improve as we go forward in tim.

That 12z EPS depicts a way better pacific. You now have a more classic negative EPO Ridge, which dumps cold air into the plains and out west, but that allows it to be #1 a very sharp cold blast and #2 would eventually spill east after stem winder.

I think it’s still points to something after the first week, that hasn’t changed. I just want to see those types of improvements continue, and also it’s possible we squeeze in something over the interior perhaps around December 1.

Gotcha...yes. We definitely need to see this 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s been ying and yang run to run. I mentioned yesterday I want consistency, but again it also points to after first week for more sustained stuff. Maybe we sneak something interior near 12/1 or so.

The inconsistency may not be a terrible thing though. Sometimes inconsistency can be a signal that things are being shaken up and will change. But I think if we are to see things change it will be more towards mid December than early. 

I haven't paid attention much to the stratosphere stuff lately but what brooklynwx posted earlier was nice to see. Stratospheric warmings or a coupled stratosphere don't necessarily mean anything for us (this could just as easily have a greater impact on Europe depending on configuration/evolution) but getting something like this earlier in the season could be hue for us. I feel like some of the more recent, stronger episodes happened second half of winter, so by the time the lower troposphere felt the impacts, it was too late for us

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

93-94 great. 94-95 suck. 95-95 great. T  N at I know. 

That missing snowfall data pisses me off. I always forget what happened...it had to do with the switching from something to something but 1995-1996 was like 115.2" and I'm pretty sure 2002-20023 was over 80" or maybe 90" and I think is second highest on record for BDL..

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not sure on that? 

maybe it was 03-04 and 04-05...or maybe it was like 02-03 good, 03-04 sucked, then 04-05 was great. Can't find my notebook. Guess I'll look online but the handling of the snowfall and tornado databases frustrates the hell out of me.