weatherwiz

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

How about 'dem bruins ? At least we get four more games.

Playoff hockey! Nothing like it 

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z GFS last night got us into May

 

ahhh yes, today is the 15th. I'm a day off  

0z GFS will be getting into May!!!

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Overnight stuff seems more 90 north doesn’t it?

should be good down into CT too

starting to pop some convection. HRRR/RRFS have hinted at something popping around Springfield/BDL around this time

Glad we don't have to worry about that

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Both nams have a lot of elevated instability tonight. Overnight bangers.

That's some pretty impressive elevated instability by the NAM overnight. Even the latest HRRR is pretty solid. Think we want to watch for whether we can sneak into the northern edge of the steep lapse rate plume which should at least graze the coast. Regardless, still decent elevated instability but could be looking at something along the lines of 500-800 J versus upwards of 1500+ if we can get into those steeper lapse rates. 

Perhaps some risk for large hail?

1 minute ago, radarman said:

It's pretty annoying when BOX and ENX are both range folding right over us when the strongest cell in the area is here.  As was the case this evening.

Yeah that was frustrating the heck out of me. Had two phones in my hand because I was taking some video in the event the winds got real so wasn't able to easily switch tilts to try and sample a bit higher up.

I wish we could get a TDWR at BDL 

wind was kind of meh here...that kind of blows. core of the wind must have missed this area. 

IN A WARNING!!!!! Let’s go!!!!

Might have to watch that cell going into Litchfield county 

Haven’t heard any thunder but it’s about to absolutely downpour here. Sky is super dark as this closes in 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Dual twisters? 

Not so sure that lead area was anything meteorological. Kind of wild looping that though 

large tornado in wisconsin 

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That doesn’t water in fertilizer . 

beer?

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Look at the ass hammerin' abuse the NAM afflicts Boston with on this 12z grid for Thur, compared to Albany and New York City... The highlight are the T1 temperature... actual SFC is typically 3 or so warmer than these.   Luckily for warm enthusiasts, the wind field at Logan on Thursday is only 8kts so it's not likely moving west of the city... but jeez!

OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z APR 14 26
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5   TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
ALB//864549 -1800 162203 59151207   BTV//944846 00505 160304 55090706
06000576954 -2996 091917 63241608   06000798766 11400 071510 60161307
12013654356 03797 082814 64231607   12025944631 00999 073110 61151205
18000853022 -3003 122912 62161509   18002973223 -3006 143307 56050708
24000974357 01701 142402 61131509   24000964160 00006 141504 57061207
30001798361 -0196 112111 64201610   30022989263 15800 111708 59111207
36005749067 -2697 102108 66221609   36008959169 03800 102011 60161306
42119999367 03199 090701 65181509   42002997344 -0103 093304 60131007
48052926953 -1701 103106 64161409   48000986339 -1703 110103 59090907
54000717153 -0899 091502 65211408   54000907850 -1004 101503 60131006
60000627337 15997 042119 67241809   60018989567 27599 041111 63151307
BOS//742946 -0203 152811 60171308   LGA//774047 00700 163104 62191709
06000616339 -2501 121410 61211508   06000545045 -1698 132011 64241710
12000725866 02597 082123 66191811   12000535544 -1696 112418 67251911
18005762735 -3499 092718 64191510   18000716556 -0398 122911 65221811
24000802325 -2206 133607 62151610   24000764830 -1297 142408 65201710
30000727561 -2002 141211 63141408   30000596752 -2796 131910 67251811
36002897366 -3098 121612 65131710   36000505148 -3697 112216 70262013
42031989070 24698 091002 66111810   42000685853 04497 102316 69222113
48058989169 -1099 123508 64071410   48000685952 00200 112615 68211713
54001897248 -0402 120408 64081310   54000523744 -1799 092210 70261814
60000985249 03998 111008 65051611   60000422654 -2501 072218 69251913

This is more for Wednesday but wild differences between guidance at BOS for tomorrow

6z MAV: 65

0z MET: 57 9z high then dropping

7z NBM: 69

I was actually expecting the 13z NBM to tame down at BOS but nope...came in at 71  . Been that seems wayyyy too high. Highest 3hr value anyways is 64 which still might be a bit high...though BOS might have a chance to climb before the E winds kick in

Absolutely wild the differences in guidance in how convection develops/evolves tomorrow. the 3km NAM highlights exactly what I was thinking yesterday in terms of potential/evolution but it doesn't have much support. But then again, not one model has support from another. Ahh the fun of convective forecasting  

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yes every year we get blocking in April

lol

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its normal for April. I hate the warmth.

40's are normal for April?

oh come on are you kidding me? Got the marginal risk but got cutoff right at the border 

The 18z HRRR does have a line moving through late PM. Might be dependent on exactly how much heating there is. The overall forcing looks pretty weak but it does look like a weak boundary will be sliding through...could be enough to get things going. Looks better north though

I would not be shocked to see a large marginal introduced for D3 when the new outlook comes out within the next 45 minutes

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Severe bangers tomorrow? Hopefully not Stein 

better chance late Wednesday PM

Potential for some strong storms Wednesday evening for southern CT. Unusual timing for this time of year for strong storms but steep lapse rates along the coast with good shear/CAPE and some approaching s/w energy