weatherwiz

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure where that poster's getting 'continental flow' out of that 'after the 11th'

but what does that mean, 'continental flow'? 

I think you misread, he said continental view, not continental flow. 

That almost looks too perfect  

I don't think I'd consider 40's a torch either, even during peak winter climo, although probably for northern New England I would. I guess though getting above like 47-48 may be a different story. 

Hopefully because of this prolonged cold a number has been done on the tick population 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s the torch ?

Being held by the Statue of Liberty 

Sometimes there is way too much focus on what phase a particular teleconnection is in or what the upcoming phase will be, however, there really is no right answer. It depends on what outcome or result you're looking for. Generally speaking, the most active weather is going to occur during the transition period, this is when you're most likely to see potential for stronger weather systems. This is why if you're rooting for a big dog, like a top percentile type of snowstorm along 95, you want to see the NAO becoming less negative with respect to time as a storm is riding up the coast. In the sense of the PNA you would probably want to see the PNA becoming positive (ridge building into the west) but ultimately, you would want the PNA to be progressive or transient because you want that trough to continue ejecting east which would then come with ridging building into the West (developing RNA). 

If you're looking for active weather you would want the pattern to setup and kind of remain a fixture for a period of time...this is something that can work extremely well for us and is how we get the periods like we did in like 1996, 2011, 2013. But because pieces are constantly moving globally it is extremely difficult to get such regimes to develop and maintain during the cold season. What you would hope is to get a great pattern to develop but be able to revert right back to that type of pattern after periods of relaxation. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why you incorporate the QBO and solar cycle into analogs. I think my progression has been good so far....only blemish is the severe -WPO making December colder than I thought....but moving forward, I was confident in latter January +TNH last fall, and still am now.

Yeah you've been pretty spot on so far. It can be really difficult to forecast the extent of the more anomalous regimes teleconnections can become. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Excellent post Paul. 

I can see why the frustration is there but it really is only January 2. If we were in a strong EL Nino regime then I would probably be in the camp of throwing away the rest of winter, however, I don't see any strong arguments or data that can make one say with a high level of confidence the remainder of winter is cooked. Sure, December could have been better as a region given how cold it was with the constant shot of Arctic airmasses, but what's the correlation to increased snowfall and storms with Arctic airmasses? I would wager not particularly high...those airmasses are usually quite cold and dry and more often than not, any bigger storms precede the Arctic air. 

We are also just beginning to enter peak climo which I would presume most receive the majority of their seasonal snowfall between mid January and mid February (obviously different the farther north you go). Yeah places finished under climo in December for snow but its not like December is a massive snow month in the climo department. Whatever negative departures a location has from not meeting December snow quota can easily be made up in January. 

This milder pattern we're about to enter, may not be a bad thing. Let's reshuffle things up a bit and go from there. There is nothing indicating this mild stretch is something that will be prolonged. 

IMO, there is way too much instability and hostility to have a solid idea moving past mid-month. I agree that there are times and situations where someone who is incredibly skilled at long-range forecasting can accurately nail pattern evolution and regime looking several weeks down the road...I mean there are some meteorologists who make a killing doing such forecasts for energy companies. Anyways, there is just so much at play right now and so many factors. While we have an idea of how things may unfold over the next few weeks, there are still uncertainties and low confidence in this and because of that there is no way to gauge how the pattern evolves past that because it will be highly dependent on how the next few weeks evolve. 

But in these situations this is where analogs can provide tremendous value but when you're dealing with the wildcards such as the stratosphere...even analogs may not work too well.  

We get fake cold, fake snow, and fake tornadoes. Ahhh this was fun but was May, not April. I can still feel the adrenaline rush 

Let’s see what 2026 can bring. The best part of 2025 weather wise was the gustnado that came within several feet of me back in April. Should watch that video again. 

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

That was last night.

Must be the hangover then 

I think some have had wayyyh to much champagne 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. 
 

Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that. 

Yup...I am intrigued in that period too. Looks quite chaotic and that combined with the variance indicates the pattern should be more on the active side. 

somehow I feel like that energy back in the SW ~7th is holding back on the potential for the wave to amplify a bit more

I would much rather be in a position where the NAO is transitioning from more negative to less negative or to slightly positive then be in a consistently -NAO regime. 

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looking at Tuesday next week for the potential of another clipper to come through the area. 06z GEFS has 24hr QPF mean >.25” for a broad area. May be a bit torch in southern areas but too soon to really delve too much more into. Potential is there for weak system to come through.

Yup...looks like we have room for maybe another 1-3" type event.

In fact, I am shocked the GFS does not have any QPF during the day Tuesday...has the look for hefty snow squalls with thunder/lightning...quite unstable look with a good shortwave rolling through. 

NAM crushed this from a few days ago. Those soundings on the NAM for the Cape were pretty sweet

1.3" of snow 

11.6" on the season 

88.4" away from 100

Had a good feeling about this one the other day

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Bottom line, it’s a pretty nice look…despite the BS that some are spewing.  

Yeah I don't know what else to say. I mean December was not bad overall and it could have been worse. Sure I guess we could have had more snow given how cold it was and yes some areas got more than others, but it wasn't a shutout and nobody got shutout. Were people expecting 20-30"? We get snow...people complain because it wasn't enough, we don't get snow and people complain. People want snow and there are offerings of potential and people complain. I don't even know what the expectations are anymore lol

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GEFs version above looks like a bit of an undercutting/split flow...

It does have that look to it. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right ... the veneer of this is pretty. 360+ hours ...  obviously low skill so whatever.  But this isn't first time we've seen this, this winter season so far.  These ranges of the ensemble means don't typically have coherent pattern signals.  I mean, I've seen less clear pattern implications on a D7 ranged charts plenty of times over the years... Usually, at this extended range, the flow looks annular about the N. Pole, almost equidistant.  You know ...circular.  It's the mean of the noise, of all ensemble members wondering off of daydreams over time.   This intrinsically means that the vast majority of them have a hard on for a -EPO at a range where they pretty much never have clue.  I've never seen this before like I am seeing it this specific winter thus far.    

Can ens

EPS

GEFS

It's definitely an extremely intriguing look and what I like about it is this type of pattern opens the door for some southern stream involvement and that would at least offer some potential for a bigger storm. But why I also love the Jan 10-15 period is we may see a relaxing NAO during that period, or the NAO becoming less negative and at the same time we're seeing variations within the state of the PNA. The pattern will not be void of energy and storm chances. If we want to add another layer to this is we will have the PV displaced on our side of the hemisphere. 

The overall look isn't terrible, in fact, it's probably better to see than these "great looking patterns" that haven't seemed to materialize the last few winters. There will be multiple storm chances over the next 2-3 weeks, probably on the order of one system every 6-9 days. 

I am pretty intrigued in the period of Jan 10-15. But we have a light snow event tomorrow, probably another one in a week, then there could be some room for a bigger storm moving towards mid-month.

This isn't a terrible looking sounding on the Cape. Def unstable in the lowest 3km

But can anyone say Martha's vineyard jackpot?