weatherwiz

Sharon, CT heads up soon

Rain is absolutely nuts here

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where exactly is the warm front located? Mesoanalysis has it north but surface obs look like it somewhere stuck in S central CT.

I think its hung up in central CT...probably very close to BDL 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

You think we all get hit again later?

Its worth watching. Much different versus Saturday. Per mesoanalysis any CIN from the rain moving through has essentially eroded and instability is building quickly. Just have to probably push the warm front a little more east but western areas definitely need to watch this given how radar is unfolding. Pushing 1500 J MLCAPE into SW CT with 200 m2s2 of effective SRH. 

Might have to consider a TOR watch at this point. Everything blossoming is rotating 

one reported on the ground northeast of Scranton 

ramping up the TORs in NY

watch be coming soon for western CT

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Scary look for Oxford and areas that got crushed two years ago, heaviest rain since then. 

It's a good thing there is minimal sfc instability or at the least sfc parcels aren't getting to the LFC. Also, thats some pretty hefty ZDR values around Monroe to Seymour to Oxford...definitely some FF concern 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I'm not sure how this one isn't warned while we have a polygon extending all the way up to Ridgefield for a storm in White Plains. 

there was an even a report of wind damage in Shrub Oak, NY near Putnam Valley 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That storm near Carmel, NY absolutely needs a warning. 

It has a nice mid-level mesocyclone. If there was a bit more sf instability that would probably try producing. I wouldn't be shocked if some wind damage reports came in but perhaps its still a bit elevated so wind isn't mixing down. But there's also a big increase in lightning...a sign this is strengthening 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a warning for that storm 

warning went out for that after my post, but that is for the cell south of the one I was referring too 

maybe because its a bit elevated but surprised no warning or at least a SPS on that cell heading towards Fairfield County/Danbury...decent wind signature on velocity 

Could be a nice line that organizes early tomorrow afternoon for E CT and points east

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Maybe it's just me but this summer seems to have flown by.

Same here. I feel like I didn't even really get to enjoy the summer. I regret not setting up shop outside and working like I did the past few summers. But I got myself one of those towers with 3 monitors hooked up and it would have just been a pain to bring that outside each day/inside and then the power strip. But its been work/summer classes so haven't been able to do much. I try and sit outside during the evenings but we get destroyed with mosquitos. 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Today is the climo warmest day for CON. All downhill from here…sadly.

Already dealing with the later sunrises and the earlier sunsets are getting noticeable too, it blows. 

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

OK I missed the post. Was just checking out some of the 6z ensemble means. I don't doubt it will get warmer, but a bit skeptical on the magnitude/duration

Yeah the duration is certainly a question, but then again, duration of higher heat events is always trickly here just because of our geographical proximity to Canada and vulnerability of fronts moving through. I guess the question would be, do any fronts completely alter the pattern or would it just be a case of multiple days of average temps before we blow another warm front through and bring in another round of heat? 

Magnitude isa challenge too, but that is a very large plume of ~+25C 850 temps being modeled into the OV...doesn't take much to really break some of that off and send it our way, especially ahead of a front or even build the airmass in if ridging expands east.

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Doesn't look like a huge signal to me, though I suppose it could get a bit more humid than it is now. 

Tip made a post on it yesterday, but you can see signals in that likelihood. Matches up kind of well too climatologically where we can get big (kind of final) big heat pushes in early August. The longevity of it though will certainly be a question given the continued theme for troughing to our northwest, but if anything that at least keeps the door open for cold fronts/convective potential

Higher heat and humidity will be building in through the first week of August. 

HRRR was a solid line moving through

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is kind of interesting

A heat wave in the Plains is obviously not that unusual at this time of year…  this thing being repeatedly modeled by the GFS operational run is pernicious tho.

I think this is the max day and an unrealistic high approaching 120° near Kansas. It’s also packed back west quite a bit throughout the great basin in California in the Sonoran Desert region. We’ll have to watch that cause the PNA is forecast to take a dip near the 25th… an Iindex state which I have not seen the operational models really take any steps towards acknowledging yet? That could turn out to be one hell of a release event if/when the mass fields were to seesaw into a -PNAP. There could be a little bit of non-linear forcing in here that the operation runs are doing a good job at suppressing perhaps at their own peril  

what a sounding

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Meanwhile, could be some fun in western zones tomorrow.  Gotta get that warm front and its clouds through.

Another decent looking setup when you look at dynamics, however, doesn't look like there is going to be any room for cloud breaks tomorrow. Quite the soupy airmass, warm front nearby, and no capping. Going to be lots of clouds and pop up showers. Timing of the front/forcing not idea either...but...there may be a shot for some strong storms on Wednesday, especially east of the River. 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@weatherwiz you gotta remember it's July--you don't get a Beryl walking through the door often. Climo this time of year is for slow developing, messy homebrew off a stalled front and/or ULL. 

I have no doubt given the trend in organization today that this will become a TS. The question is whether it can fully expel the dry air that was giving it fits yesterday and keep building deep convection near the center. Proximity to land is an issue and northerly shear doesn't help with aligning the vortex. 

But you don't need a pristine environment for gradual organization and intensification. This isn't a horrible look. 

 

It's certainly not a horrible look but its pretty far off from getting to the point of being like, "yeah this is a bit concerning" and something which may result in stronger storm impacts (something like increasing concern for power outages and surge/coastal flooding). There are a lot of "if this happens" involved here. Certainly worth watching, but if I had to lean towards a direction of what this becomes, it would be minimal impact...nothing more than what this area sees with daily thunderstorms which produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. maybe a bit more of a FF risk from torrential downpours and maybe some slightly stronger wind gusts.

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... that's probably PR.   Being where it is, i.e. not being able to escape that region without hitting land, they can't afford to take chance.   Sometimes these things'll fester for 4 days, while models keep prematurely spinning them up. Then, all at once on that 5th day, inhibition was poorly assessed, goes away, and it then m'fugger goes nuts. 

The PR in a situation like that is strategic.  Keep 'em apprised with the headline (watch).   What they can't do is be responsible for any statement that will invariably be interpreted by the Idiocracy as 'okay we don't have to worry' charter boats and tourism and no worries.   For one, the Idiocracy wants to interpret that way ...  To mention also, we live in a litigation-happy society that seems to excuse if not reward people for being Idiots.  But I'm digressing

Certainly can't disagree with that. As we've seen the past decade really is you can't trust a storm in the Gulf, especially with the OHC that builds going into the season. 

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It almost looks like a TUTT with a sputtering TD underneath.  TUTT are not and anticyclonic outflow over top - opposite.  

What's interesting about that is that TUTT's are often a part of TC evolution.  But, they are near-by ...   not directly overhead. 

The near-by model:  The mechanism/relationship there is that their circulation proximity pulls an outflow channel which improves the mass-restoring inflow potential and the TCs gets a boost.   It's like a pulsar and star and the pulsar siphoning material off the star, and it flows into an accretion disk.  But in this case the TUTT is over top.  No channel.  

I'm not sure that's what is happening here but the general CB exhaust motion doesn't inspire anticyclonic U/A has been established very well, and in fact, the deeper object motion is slowly cyclonic about a broader defined axis with that small surface feature SSE of LA.   Also some NEly shear too

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. 

This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters.