weatherwiz

I'll take the 3km please

Gotta say...the RRFS has been quite consistent in its evolution. It's really liked up around the Albany area

A bit of a change in plans.

Going to go to Bennington, VT and start from there. There are some decent viewing spots. Secondary area (which would be only 30 minutes away) is Wigwam Western Summit in North Adams which looks like it has a tremendous view to the west. 

Really tough part about today is the mesoscale aspect of how this unfolds. The greatest potential seems to be well down into PA but given its a very late PM threat its probably not worth the 4+ hour drive. 

36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not bad out! No mosquitos either…so far. Usually get destroyed with them here 

Spoke too soon

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

73° / 54° pretty sweet evening. 

 

Not bad out! No mosquitos either…so far. Usually get destroyed with them here 

Oneonta is our target area for tomorrow! 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

possible broadly defined/quasi Bahama Blue pattern setting up ?

Bring on the 75F dews

Just now, vortex95 said:

Yes, the was some sun I bet in CT, but mostly cloudy overall in SNE.  I noted that day in Woburn it was breezy and a thick high OVC by early afternoon.  I went up to U Lowell to monitor the radar, and then noted the monster cell W of ALB.  My drive from Lowell to HFD was OVC the entire time.  Did not make it to HVN in time and I was just ahead of the MA tornadic supercell moving SE from Hubbardston, but I had no idea there was tornadic there (it formed rapidly after I left Lowell) b/c the VIS sucked! 

Even though in the HFD area missed the monster supercell, other cells hit the area, and one a drove though, I have never seen it get so dark approaching any storm in New England.  The LTG was not crazy, but did it pour!

the post about the accounts of sun breaking out was about the 10/3/79 event...don't want to get that confused with the 7/10/89.

But its not uncommon for our EML days to begin with clouds and showers/thunderstorms moving through followed by quick clearing (hell, probably the case too in the midwest). I remember 5/31/98 was like this. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms until like 9 or 10 AM (maybe a bit earlier) then off to the races with full sun 

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Oct 1979 was an odd duck.  Not sure of the left movement was a factor.  Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics.  It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low.  This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984.  Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4!

Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the event.  It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell.  They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem.

I remember reading some accounts that the sun broke out maybe an hour or two prior to the cell moving north through the valley from Long Island and that may have been enough to rapidly destabilize things. There definitely had to be some localized horizontal vorticity in which the rapid destabilization was enough to tilt this more vertically and become ingested into the updraft. 

24 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

You mean "right-moving!" 

ahhh right...the Oct 79 was left moving 

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity. 

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC.  Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed.  A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day! 

That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the only thing concerning to me is cloud cover. If that keeps temps down several degrees then expect less coverage. Otherwise, instability is modest….but lots of things advect in late day like higher 925-850theta-e, 500 PVA and falling temps, some better lapse rates etc. I like when things advect in vs already being in place. I think it helps destabilize. Just need to watch cloud cover.

Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. 

One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing annoying is a batch of mid level clouds trying to spoil the sun midday. Maybe even a few sprinkles. May affect aftn development.

Yup a little worried about that. But targeting probably E NY/NW MA/S VT area tomorrow.

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually think the risk could extend right to the coast, but they’re probably going with typical climo.

AWT

Lets get some sort of show tonight 

6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

WxWiz wants a repeat of this!
https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again. 

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

are you talking about the front, or the thunderstorm triggering -

i suppose you could get that pre frontal quasi dry-line trough thingy in that situation.   That would actually be ahead of the better synoptic support - which I would not ever side with the NAM on synoptic timing dude.  Just don't ...

Thunderstorm triggering - and also keeping in mind we'd more than likely be looking at a pre-frontal trough triggering convection. Sunday we more than likely would see the actual cold front as the trigger which goes into Scott's point about Sunday's potential and towards the coast

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

82.0/46

Would like these dews 15 higher

Give me 25-30 higher

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm far as I can tell it's only the NAM doing that.   Wouldn't trust it until more support ... but not impossible, no. 

I suppose if you really want it to be right so that you can engage and hopefully win another in the varied petty competitions over weather-related statements that goes on in here, there's nothing wrong with relying on it to make Kevin wrong.

LOL

I am buying the NAM timing...the NAM is usually the model which is a bit too slow. Heights really fall too mid-to-late afternoon, even on the GFS. That too me signals leaning faster with timing (well one reason) 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Far NW MA. Nothing elsewhere 

Timing is speeding up even more. May end up being a south and east of HFD day

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

good line of higher CAPEed convection 21z on Saturday outta do the trick. 

AIT

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Well the NAM is discontinued 

it might be but this isn't  

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There doesn’t look to be any convection with this and it’s all centered on Sunday morning to midday . SNE is just sunny and hot Saturday. NBM total qpf in SNE is very meh generally under .25

I'd watch for models to continue speeding up with the timing. There certainly could be a bit cutoff though within SNE where WOR is favored. Seeing the 18z NAM come in even quicker is something to watch...typically the NAM can be too slow.