weatherwiz

Not much longer until we'll be tracking this  

I don't think recon is really out there for this system nor will it do much in terms of data for this. 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can’t believe they were able to tie it with the goalie pulled.

beautiful deflection in front 

There is still enough time and room for the south coast in this and it probably wouldn't even take much more to get at least some minor accumulations farther inland. Would probably want to start seeing some jumps 0z tonight and the theme continuing 12z tomorrow though 

Just now, VivaManchVegas said:

Maybe it will minimize any flooding risks.

I'm not so sure there would be a flood risk from the snow melt alone. Despite the smaller storms we've had and the one biggie, I think we're continuing to run a deficit in the the precipitation column so I think the ground could absorb a quite a bit of snow melt. Now, there could maybe be some issues which arise from ice jams and so forth. 

Also, after that stretch we had in January to the first part of this month, these temperatures aren't bad lol. Actually feels nice walking outside. I am sure in another month highs of 30's and lower 40's will get old but until then we enjoy

We have a long ways to go before any sort of sustained major warmup. Heck, even looks like we're a long ways off from anything even a bit above climo. May as well just keep things active with potential events. 

Probably looking at another year where we go from 40's to 80's in a span of three days

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

What about CNE?

Definitely better there I think than south with the initial thump. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch Saturday. Look at how deep the DGZ gets underneath that rapidly crashing H5 wave. Wouldn’t take much for someone to stack some fluffies if a little LL convergence sets up overhead. North shore might be in a good spot again…don’t expect norlun totals again but some enhancement is def possible.  

NAM even kind of targets east facing slopes of the southern Greens and Berks with potential for accumulating snow with this

Sim radars also showing a very convective look to the precipitation field tomorrow...makes sense given the steep lapse rates and weak elevated instability. Kind of reminds me of those awful spring days (even sometimes in the summer) when we get the hung up warm fronts and the day consists of clouds, periods of drizzle, and then spotty/brief heavier showers. But dealing with wintry precipitation types versus plain liquid

colder/south in this case probably doesn't even do much to help, if anything would make things worse. Probably means less moisture influx (which is already limited) and even weaker dynamics (which are already pretty terrible). Better dynamics are lift is well to our northwest, closer to the main low. The weak sfc low development is enough to keep it just cold enough at the sfc for us to get some freezing drizzle or sleep pellets 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam coming in flaccid 

I expect the radar to be crap tomorrow. The dynamics aren't particularly great there is a quite a bit of dry air aloft (outside of a rather narrow axis of moist air lifting southeast to northeast). It will be the Adirondacks, Greens, and probably Berks that get any accumulating snow. Elsewhere its just going to be a combination of rain showers, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets. Probably some wet snowflakes for the hills. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You wonder if areas of CT get some ZR that doesn't really freeze....

This.

You really want to see surface temperatures more like 28-29 versus 31-32 to start having concerns for ice accretion and anything of subsidence outside of causing slick spots on untreated surfaces. 

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Still got about 6 weeks left to get this Mon storm, Mar 1993 and Mar 1888

ahhh very true. 

Plus another 4/1/97 except lower elevations are nailed too. 

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

As long as you're closer to 100

Nope

Will have to hope for next season

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Did anybody get anything?

Does coming out of the event with less snow OTG than before it count as something? 

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Up to 32° here after a tenth of snow. Overcast now. Very jelly of those with 40s. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Drier air working in below 700mb though. So it’s a battle.

Yup...going to be a tough one. Just like you said, probably be a very narrow area that may do well. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a weird system. Very narrow area that may do ok. 

I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it. 

I could see tomorrow too being a case where the radar returns are much stronger than ground truth because of the degree of bright banding we'll see taking place. 

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Relatively low impact.  Not like the rates will be high.  DPWs won't have much issue

I was thinking yesterday someone could probably pull off 3-4-5" but I don't see that happening now. I mean I'm sure someone in the Berks will do it way up but looking around at forecast soundings on the 12z NAM...they absolutely blow. Much of the precip type tomorrow is probably going to be rain (we'll say rain showers because the intensities overall probably not heavy outside of a narrow area) with some sleet pellets mixing in...and some areas will bounce around between like 70-30 or 80/20 mixture and you'll probably have to get into the hills to get some mangled snow flakes mixing in. 

oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow

Think about it too like during the summer, we've had some summers where we've seen to get cold fronts to always come through around the same day each week, especially when the pattern isn't deviating much. 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Why would upper levels give a shit about the day of the week?

they don't, it's just how the spacing of storms/track work sometimes. 

I agree...theoretically the day of the week doesn't matter at all

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Go look at NESIS and tell me how many of the top ten hit on a weekend here. Its not believing DTs rule it's just an oddity. Brian has that straight scientific mind unable to pick up on coincidence 

Not discounting it...I think it makes a lot of sense as to why there likely is a correlation between certain weather events and day of week and even day of year. Weather systems generally (And I use this term a bit loosely) move through the flow at a specific speed as do ridge/trough propagation.  If you look back at our historic periods, most of the big storms during them all tended to fall on or around the same date...like remember 2015 or maybe it was 2013...it was every Wednesday.