weatherwiz

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

OT, but interesting.

 

Wow, don’t recall seeing that outside of Cali before 

Weeklies are warm for January?

big month of cold and snow incoming 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday could rip especially in ern areas. You’ll have some daytime heating ahead of rain 

yeah eastern areas def have greatest potential to get temperatures well into the 50's and some stronger wind...perhaps even some convection too

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ice should be fine. lol

I'm sure they will have a top notch cooling system that is going to be cranking (can't even imagine the cost) but I have to think there will be some issues with the ice. 

With this ridge centered over Florida they may be playing the outdoor classic on a pond. It will be a water polo match instead of a hockey match

I would be shocked if there isn't some widespread, high impact winter weather somewhere along the northern tier of the country mid-to-late week. There is no way we go through that without something somewhere 

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol…their lifespan was 30 something.

I bet they enjoyed a good ice storm

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah, Kris Kringle or Jesus weren't even birthed yet.. lol

Santa's been around since the start of time 

Bring on a Christmas Ice Storm. The cave people did Christmas without electricity, we can too.

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My experience says in this winter setup my high is 53

I wonder if we start Friday with some very dense fog 

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Jeez, I've been out of town...but what happened up there?

whoops...that should have just said Long Island...not the sound lol. 

Long Island had a nice little hit from the storm. 

But I guess looking deeper...it will be difficult to prevent temps/dews from climbing into the lower 50's though I am curious to see how far north we can get those. Could struggle to get the warm front to lift much past the Pike. If that sfc low either trends a bit farther southeast or a weak wave develops along the front...the warm sector would get squashed a bit. Probably would see a funny shaped front

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would not be shocked at some thunder reports

the NAM hints at that potential but it has a little pocket of steeper lapse rates and some higher MUCAPE. The NAM I think can often overdo those in these setups but its not unheard of to get some thunder/lightning with these, especially towards the outer Cape/Islands. 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Take a good look at surface temps from Friday on. High barometer and low barometer cold.

I'm also curious as to exactly how high temperatures will climb in the warm sector Friday. You'll have a southerly flow coming off unseasonably cool waters, plus coming off a snow cover on Long Island Sound and then across southern CT. I wonder if it will be more upper 40's versus lower 50's type stuff (not that I guess it matters much). Wind potential probably held back too because I'm sure there would certainly be a stout inversion. Maybe some wind potential if any elevated convection can be generated.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t necessarily disagree with the pope. It’s kind of a meh pattern, but at least not hopeless.

I think sometimes we try too much or hope too hard for that perfect pattern but perfect patterns are tough to come by. I've become a firm believer in that it's not just about the pattern, it's about how the pieces are moving, evolving, and interacting within the pattern.

I would love to pull off one major storm before my next semester starts so I can at least enjoy it alot more. Keep em ripping after that but will be harder to enjoy/dig deep into the forecasting pocket for. I am cautiously optimistic for early January...the pattern may not be entirely supportive for a biggie but it could be active. We also may introduce some southern stream involvement...I don't see the southern stream being active, but if the southern stream can shoot some energy our way and phase up with a northern piece...there's our biggie potential 

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence

This illustrates beautifully. While using OP at this time range isn't particularly great, I do think there is some value in assessing how the OP is handing the overall evolution of the pattern during that time frame. In doing this, you can see there has been a tendency to somewhat compress the heights a bit and there is also some pretty strong vort maxes modeled...these would further help to flatten that flow out a bit. That look on the ensembles screams some sort of storm potential. I think that period through the first week of January is shaping up to be active. 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t see the pessimism…

still a chance for Christmas Eve miracle on AIFS and Euro .. and Euro with a Boxing Day biggie for CNE

Yeah there really is no reason to panic or anything yet. It's already been established the surface may not be totally reflective of what is going on in the mid-levels. What we can gather from that period, however, is that it could be active. How those pieces fall into place...way too early to worry about that. 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic drive each other crazy.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right…

The one thing I think everyone does best though is when there is a legit threat or when an event is ongoing...the discussion is generally pretty great and top notch. the occasional joke posts here and there but everyone puts on their game cap when needed. 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just about everyone does olympic level mental gymnastics during the winter from southeast Canada to Georgia. People are overly pessimistic just as they are overly positive depending on where they sit and how desperate they are for snow. Like you said, that's the purpose of the board, and it's what makes it incredibly fun and incredibly frustrating all season long. Most people strike enough of a balance to fit in, but we have our positive and negative outliers--God love (most of) 'em, no doubt about it. 

My perspective has always been--just have fun. If you're negative, have fun with it. If you're a #faithinflakes kind of person, make it entertaining not obsessive. If you don't believe in fun, be educational at least. 

Life is far too short and serious to be miserable here. 

Well stated, especially the having fun part. I know there are some who don't want to read the nonsense or care for it but some of the troll stuff when the weather is boring is downright hilarious. 

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I’m not going to argue anymore, but is 100% the truth. There would be posts talking about how it fits the pattern, etc. I mean, let’s just be honest about what’s really happening. People don’t want to discuss the potential negative outcomes, it’s as simple as that.

It's basically trying will things to happen which look bad. Trying to find ways in which it will work. 99% of forecast models could show a rain storm at D6 and one model showing potential for all snow...all the focus would be on how that one model "could verify" over what the actual situation is 

I mean...I'm not complaining about this, that's why we're all here and it's the purpose of the board...it's a discussion board lol. But it does I think yield in blending the line of fantasy versus reality at times. 

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

with respect to that surface hp around the 22nd/23rd, there isn't much to suggest we're gonna run a big moisture plume into it right now and even a 6z gfs front ender doesn't have a lot of support at this time (including from 12z).  But maybe a deamplifying wave of some kind could be in play on the front side of the ridge going up in the center of the CONUS.  Normally that's not gonna excite most people, but could be the difference in a white Christmas for some.

If things unfolded as advertised, I wouldn't be surprised if we had a decent chance of throwing more moisture our way given the southwesterly flow around the stout high across the southeast. However, I think what we would really want to see is a deamplifying wave like you said...or even a strong Arctic cold front plowing southeast across the Plains which would help tap into the Gulf. What would be excellent if there was a connecting the the equatorial PAC...we would be golden I think there 

Just now, radarman said:

good thing they probably don't have many large trees in the northern Plains or upper-Midwest (or maybe they do...never been).

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But you keep harping on these Op runs at 10 plus days out…and how bad they look. And yes, Brett, if they showed a blizzard, at 8-11 days out we’d take them just as insignificantly.   As Steve said…op runs at those lead times are BS for sensible weather. Yet you continue to use them to push your disdain for the weather.  It’s frigid. It’s been frigid. Yes, we got boned in the snow department…especially compared to basically everyone around us…but that shit happens bro.  Maybe we make up for it going forward at some point.  I know you don’t like to hear this, but it’s really not even winter yet.  But That’s a fact. 

I disagree with this. There would be 100 posts just showing snow maps from 50 different models and then comparing changes in the snow maps to justify any trends and then the if game on how if a,b,c,d,e,f do this it has a chance. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol… Very wintry out there for sure. Enjoy and appreciate.   

Was outside last night want to say it was around 9:00 or so and it was very peaceful just looking around and seeing everything covered in snow with Christmas lights...for some reason, this scenery makes it so you don't even feel the cold. All it takes is a couple inches of snow to totally change the mood.

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Paul, I think your approach narrows the possibilities.  I mean isn’t AI inherently “better computing” considering the concept is deep learning?  I think AI can be tweaked when we see where it needs to be quickly.  As a crude example, my phone quickly learns how I use “muthufukka”.    Phones five years ago it took much longer and my next phone should even learn it faster.

No disagreement there, but (and maybe I am flat out wrong on this) we can't teach AI something that we don't know ourselves. For example, when it comes to physics and mathematics, AI isn't going to teach us or give us a better understanding of how atmospheric physics works and how these processes behave and evolve. Let's look at thunderstorms, for example. There are certain processes which occur during a thunderstorms life cycle that we know happen, however, we don't fully know why certain processes happen the way they do or what is the leading contributor. Tornadogenesis is one...we know the ingredients needed for tornadoes, we know how tornadoes form, but we don't know fully understand why some supercells (which look tornadic based on visual features/radar features) produce tornadoes and others don't...AI isn't going to solve something like that. AI isn't going to tell us this because we don't understand it ourselves and we don't have all the necessary data and measurements to be able to do so. 

But with the phone example, its learning faster because it has a basis to go on...it understands something because that something is known. There are many meteorological processes which we know exist and understand their existence, but don't fully know the why/how.

AI will be a major help though in calculating mathematical/physics calculations much more quickly which will hopefully get us faster model output in the future.