weatherwiz

LFG

Outside of the coast inland areas don't get another pulse of a stronger LLJ until tonight. At that point its just a matter of how well we're mixing. But this seems to be going about par thus far. 

Cranking that LLJ 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

they need to convert to a high wind warning there

surprised they didn't with the afternoon update. 

Maybe gusts 60-65 on parts of Long Island later tomorrow on the 18z NAM. 

I'm really curious what the algorithm is (and this could vary by vendor) for the wind gust output products. I would presume its something as simple taking the wind at the top of the models forecast of the mixing height and bringing that to the surface. If that is true, that could explain why the gust products are more underwhelming in this situation. With a subtle inversion present just above the ground, the model mixing heights may be meh (probably barely mixing beyond a several hundred feet) but we'd probably mix deeper than that, particularly a bit inland from the shoreline. 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some convection blossoming too north side of the center. Also, a very nice flux of moisture entraining into this from the Caribbean 

GFS doesn't seem as inverted either, especially inland. In fact, even developing a couple hundred J of MUCAPE

I'd also watch for models overall to perhaps miss some of the very early rain potential (which could have implications on overall flooding risk too). Wouldn't be shocked to see some rain and rain bands get in much earlier than indicated and the rainfall rates would be quite heavy. Maybe progressive movement limits totals but something to watch

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tolland CT and Stonington CT 

Not bad stuff mixed in there. 

Tomorrow is going to be a fun day seeing how this plays out

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Soundings are willd statewide 

Yeah looking at some euro soundings for tomorrow morning inland CT there is a shot we can gust 40-50 even inland, especially the eastern half of the state

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK could be the Euro ocean coupled is sensing upwelling leading to an inversion 

Yeah there is a bit of an inversion but not particularly strong or very deep. I can still see the coast gusting 50-60 mph, particularly with any rain bands. But given how shallow the inversion is, we have to watch sfc temps very closely. Another 1-2F warmer and the inversion is weakened and may not do much in preventing some of those stronger winds from being tapped into. 

Yeah Euro would be some big winds along the CT shore

LLJ looks a bit more robust on the 18z NAM 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Apple picking may still be on for Sunday!

just wear a goalie mask and wear a baseball glove just in case.

Personally though I'd be playing dodge that apple and if I get hit...so be it

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Weird how CT is divided up amongst 3 offices....

More an Oceanstwx question but I believe the biggest reason for that is radar coverage. We have a unique terrain and lots of trees and objects. This is much easier to see visually but when watching convection, Albany's radar gets Litchfield County better while BOX gets Hartford, Tolland, and Windham better, and OKX gets the southern 4 counties better. Though I will say...I think OKX actually does better for at least the southern half of Hartford county but with BOX now having a 0.3° slice, it may be much better with Hartford county. There are still definitely some gaps though in a portion of Litchfield/Fairfield/Hartford county that all 3 kind of don't sample well

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My only concerns with keeping it warm core longer are

1) the SSTs once you pass Cape May

and 2) the amount of time this will need to contract and organize. 

We're not looking at pure TC genesis here, so maybe both those things are moot, but if you want tropical from a sprawling area of low pressure you usually need a lot of time. If this were hanging out over the Gulf Stream longer, sure, but I don't think we'll have that here. 

Yeah SSTs really drop off with northward extent and models don't seem to hang this over the Gulf Stream very long so I am shocked at how long guidance is maintaining this as a warm core system. Like Scott said this morning though, it terms of sensible weather this has really has very little impact on the sensible weather side of things. Maybe one thing it influences is the overall strength of the LLJ. If you're able to maintain a 70-75 knot LLJ and push that to the coast...would be some problems 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup. That's exactly what I'm thinking. First max maybe over Long Island (or in reality coastal CT) and a second max up near Boston. I think the Euro is going to be robust. The trend definitely seems to be more amplified today so far. 

There seems to be a trend to keep this warm core much longer and a slower occlusion. Very curious what the Euro is like 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can def see a SW CT jackpot for rain. 

There may be two local max areas within the region. Even some of these heftier models with rainfall totals, I'm a little worried they may be underdone. You get a scenario where that mlvl warm front sits over the region and you push the llvl warm front or sfc front towards the coast and there is going to be some substantial rainfall totals and the rainfall rates will be quite intense. Flooding could end up pretty significant 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And this is the GFS. A further north track with decent mixing would put good gusts into much of southeast New England and maybe into CT. This is HFD at 18z Saturday.

Definitely can't rule out 40-50 mph gusts inland yet, especially if we get that LLJ overhead during the day versus at night. Also will depend on if we are getting heavy precip or not. Its going to be quite windy because of the gradient but if we get more banded precip versus a rain shield, that is when we'll rip good gusts. 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really starting to see that rain signal appear @weatherwiz.

As for wind. 

Boston

 

Groton

 

New Haven

You can see a subtle inversion just above the sfc at BOS but thats pretty well mixed at HVN and GON

Polo is just something else. Jaw dropping satellite imagery this past week. Also seems like Nolo may be become better organized too 

NAM deepens this so much and so quickly that we probably just end up with bands of heavy rain and gusty winds versus a widespread heavy rain shield. Would greatly reduce flooding risk and even wind risk (especially inland). Core of the LLJ never really gets into the region and its quite inverted. But not totally sold on this being as intense as the NAM has it...but this does illustrate such a scenario should that occur

If there are trees or limbs hanging over an area where kids play, such as a playscape, and there is signs of tree rot or tree damage you could certainly make a case for negligence on the property owner. No different if you say hurt yourself walking through a parking lot of an establishment because of torn up pavement or concrete  

Have to wonder if the NAM is going a bit too wonky with the deepening but it keeps this warm core for some time