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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by weatherwiz

  1. 20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

    SPC has decided to tease the setup a bit more!

    Not entirely shocked at the slight risk designation. We've had some worse setups get a slight risk designation :lol: 

    That is a really well-defined s/w trough moving into the region with good height fields and increasing dynamics with cooling aloft. I would be shocked if storms aren't numerous tomorrow and evolve into multiple short-line segments or clusters

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  2. the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather. 

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  3. 2 minutes ago, radarman said:

    God I love this location for severe ;)

    * At 547 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Belchertown, or 8 miles southeast of Amherst

     

    But seriously though I doubt this one verifies.  Classic SPS event IMO

    Surprised at the 1” hail tag. Tough to get 1” hail in this setup. Poor lapse rates and very warm aloft. Would need a monster updraft to achieve that. 

  4. Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

    feels very warm to me.   86 to 89 at most home/non-official sites, enough en masse that combined with the sensible appeal out there ...it's legit.  With almost nill movement to the air and intense insolation, that's pushing it

    It's been a great gradual increase in warmth/humidity through the day. Working outside and I've really felt this increase in the last few hours. The sweat slowly develops and you can feel yourself starting to stick to the leather chair all so slowly...its like applying a fine strip of super glue to a broken piece of glass. My shorts are that glue 

  5. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    It's late June, you'll always have steep low level lapse rates lol.

    That is true :lol: 

    But I think 2-6km lapse rates are a better metric to use when assessing damaging wind gusts potential versus the standard "low-level lapse rates" which I think are measured 0-3km?

  6. 2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

    Sucks to be us. 

     

    hmmm...not sure what he is referring to with steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates are garbage so I am assuming he means low-level lapse rates...but not sure how steep those are tomorrow regionally due to lots of cloud cover. Probably a better chance llvl lapse rates are steeper across southeast PA into NJ but not sure if they will be anything to write home about. 

    Not sure I see much risk for an isolated tornado there...if any risk existed it would be in central New England, closer to the warm front. Winds down there veer more in the llvls as the warm front lifts farther northeast. 

  7. 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    I can't believe how lame storms have been over the last several years. Unreal.

    It really blows. I would really kill for a repeat of 2008 with the constant cold pools. June and July were insane with the daily thunderstorms and hail. Would even be better if we could get 90's squall lines again but that seems like a distant thing of the past. 

  8. 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    Tomorrow seems meh for storms. Wonder if the early morning stuff limits some heating. Kind of looks messy overall.

    Yup...looks like best will be southwest (of course). Might have to watch central/northern New England though around the warm front. SPC hints at it too...but could be potential for a TOR or two if there is enough destabilizing there

  9. 7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

    Congrats on clearing out mid afternoon. Sounds like an epic day. 

    Better late than never! 
     

    I always enjoy these type of days, it’s crazy how it can be so cloudy/cool/drizzle then several hours later hot and humid. I was outside with the dog right as the crap was clearing out and feel the change in real time 

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