weatherwiz

52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so much for that.  The Euro/GGEM collapsed pretty far toward the GFS' more progressive, less digging cold pool Sunday.   Bye-bye tentative severe. In fact, even QPF chances are almost dried up entirely.

So ... should this be the case, let it be known, GFS did considerably better than either the Euro or Canadian from a range of ~96+ hours. 

yup...oh well. It was fun to look at while it lasted  

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Really nice looking hail setup 

Probably one of the better hail setups we've had in quite some time. 

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it was there yesterday/suggestively when I brought it up

it was but wasn't it diving more across Maine then south across SNE?

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Yep. Worth keeping an eye on is all.

My eyes opened up a bit when I checked the llvl moisture. Don't often see dews into the 60's in this type of setup.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still suggest this should be watched on Sunday ...

Just looked at the 6z GFS...figured you would have certainly said something. 

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Surface dews in the 60s, LIs -4, 1000-2000 joules of CAPE.... I'll take my chances.

Big change from yesterday with that Sunday shortwave. You have adequate shear with steep mid-level lapse rates driven by a strong cold pool with sfc dews in the 60's. Good recipe for hailers and strong downbursts. 

5 tornadoes from a single event is pretty damn impressive, even if perhaps a few were the result of lifting up then touching back down several miles later. 

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

yeah MUCAPE looked nonexistent so not sure what the 3k is on. 

must be the method the 3km uses to calculate CAPE but it sometimes seems to be on the higher side versus reality with MUCape. 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm ...don't take that sneaky diving mid/u/a cold pool on Sunday for minimal, necessarily.   that looks likes like a gusty outflow hailer producer.   We have a west wind at the surface with NW at 700 mb, so we're taking our positive shear and rotating it around the dial, while the heights are rapidly falling at mid levels through mid day with that dive. 

It's prevalent on the overnight operational runs and is still D5/6 so the notion could vanquish... but that feature's been there in some for or another fairly consistently.  so we'll see

certainly could see some showers/storms Saturday with that feature, though perhaps favored over the higher terrain? Sunday perhaps better suited for northern Maine.

15 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

3k NAM pretty juicy tomorrow morning, thunderstorms?

probably just showers as we don't really have any instability around. 

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Wheelchair? Sure there was no one in it?

It’s the plastic piece that protects under the car. It’s been broken but this did it in. I’ll have to rip it off I guess. 

Well I found out what made the squealing 

Almost died on the way home and not from the weather. Felt something crawl across my arm and neck and swept my hand across my face and look on my door and it was a giant spider...swerved and almost crashed trying to pinpoint it...thats when I saw it was massive. Luckily I had a tissue so I got it. 

also about a mile from home there was a part of a road that was pretty flooded...didn't see it until too late and my car squealed loudly all the way home.

Looks like Holden there was a brief TDS

10 minutes ago, radarman said:

Sorry...  

not your fault. I probably typed in the wrong thing. It took me to conservation area I think but when I arrived to where maps said it was I was surrounded by trees and didn’t see a driveway path anywhere 

Well my maps took me to the wrong part of Mount Pollux so I had to scramble. Best I could do was Cold Spring Coutry club in Belchertown. Terrible views but too late 

27 minutes ago, radarman said:

Meh.  Google Mt Pollux and go there if you're setting up in Amherst

I just got here…no view ughh. I’ll try mt pollux

Going to go to Amherst golf club 

Maybe Amherst college has a great viewing spot? 

Probably going to be too far north. Was thinking Amherst early morning but it’s tough to find a good spot. I found a great spot last year at the school but when I went there with my friend a few months ago I couldn’t find the spot 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Prob gonna want to extend that…

Ask and you shall receive 

Might have been a brief TDS?

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You can go to the Rendevous in Turner Falls afterwards and have a three dollar pint of PBR! 

If I was with someone I would definitely do that lol. Otherwise boring alone 

Elected to do Turners Fall airport based in radar evolution 

I think I am going to go into southwest New Hampshire (Walpole area where my friend works). Thinking there is potential sfc winds may end up a bit more backed up in that area. But I am going to have to leave like now. Its about a 90 minute hike there

Just now, radarman said:

Turner's Falls airport is a good spot.  Or on the top of Mt Sugarloaf, except you aren't in position to move easily

Thanks! 

I'm not too worried about being able to move easily. Once I pick a spot and location I don't really want to have to deal with moving and trying to get somewhere or follow the storm.