weatherwiz

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Possible tornado last night a couple of miles from me.  NWS sent a team out to survey.

https://www.wcax.com/2026/04/17/nws-surveying-thunderstorm-damage-williamstown-friday/

https://www.mynbc5.com/article/nws-tornado-investigation-williamstown-vermont/71051947

 

AWT

4 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Hoping we do get 3 or 4 hours below freezing Tuesday AM to kill of some of the black flies that are already buzzing around. Seems like the years that we do get a nice Mid-April freeze after the first hatchings, we then have significantly fewer black flies for the rest of the season.

maybe even kill off some ticks 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems like relative to every pattern ... results are +  

Whether it is .001 of a single degree F, or +10 Fs, +'s are sort of a baked in ( no pun intended ) consequence of being in a +d(C)   where C denotes climate. 

But it's not just temperature?   seriously...I see something subtle in the circumstances, too.  Today is a perfect example. Right now, it is 69 F here... we are about to go above 70 F. 

Yet, looking at the satellite and WPC's surface synopsis, this appears to be a backside cyclone scenario.   The strata entrails and scuddies are moving NE-SW...  and there's regions of pancaking coming d-slope and evaporating as they come.  

Meanwhile, the main/real polar boundary is situated up in S Canada.  I don't recall ever seeing cyclone mechanics closed off like this, INSIDE a warm sector. 

Much less... in April

These are odd circumstances.  These kind of idiosyncratic things... I just have an Aspergery kind of memory about weather situations since I was apparently designated by birth to waste a life with a Meteorological talent that will provide nothing for anyone  ha   ( I'm like the Michigan Jay Frog of weather minutia ).  Anyway, I'm I keep having to step back over this shit and going, "what in the f is happening here". 

Things are just behaving differently ...whether it shows up in the thermometers or not. And they're just under the radar, too subtle for most to even be aware... for one thing, who the fuck is complaining or getting spooked by 70 on April 17 in a "cold sector" behind a cyclone inside a warm sector ... Too nice to care.   It's just unknowable to them. 

Reminds me of a few Aprils ago (or maybe it was early May) but we had that dome of well below average 925/850mb temps overhead and yet we where still putting out ~ average. 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully this verifies

That would be a giant FU

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 60’s to near 70 middle/ end of next week 

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

26 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

ever take the ferry ?  a few bucks more but much less stress

Briefly looked into it but I don't think my girlfriend would swing that and with the Bruins playing Sunday I don't want to risk having something come up and miss any of the game. 

Unless I was looking wrong the prices were insane. 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models don't show all that much rain for Sunday-maybe some scattered showers vs an all day stratiform rain?

Hoping its more scattered showers but QPF signal is decent right now. But just showers is going to cause probably 10 accidents  and unless I do a different route, form 95 a good part of the trip will be the Merritt. Unless I just do 95 to like New Haven then shoot up 91.

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Next week is shit for all. Although I will add that we may get a couple of decent NW flow days late week once the core of the cold passes. Anything with sun is a plus.

sun is definitely going to be needed. But I think we should end up being fine...we'll have a chance to climb before we start clouding over. 50's is going to suck versus 70's and 80's but it would be worse (It will be worse for some though where there are only 40's)

If you compare to this week yeah it will suck but the upcoming stretch doesn't look terrible by any means. Different tune though for those probably closer to the coast but nothing abnormal for April really. We should at least climb to average most days or in that ballpark. 

Driving down to Long Island tomorrow evening for a wedding on Saturday (I'm the best man!). Not looking forward to driving back in rain on Sunday. Might try and leave early in the morning or sleep in a bit and leave before checkout...but it depends on what time the Bruins game ends up being. Hate driving in rain...probably be like 20 accidents. At least it will be daylight

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nice to see that...we'll see how it works out.  There's quite a bit of clearing sweeping up across the area at mid and u/a levels according to high res vis loop this hour.  As that expands over this sludge it will be interesting to see how the mid April sun goes to war over top. 

The day glow is also already elevating over the last 10 min here so my est for 11 am might not be so bad. 

Gotta watch exactly where that boundary ends up because we may see some transient supercells along it 

wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado today anywhere from central VT through central NH

AWT

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

How about 'dem bruins ? At least we get four more games.

Playoff hockey! Nothing like it 

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z GFS last night got us into May

 

ahhh yes, today is the 15th. I'm a day off  

0z GFS will be getting into May!!!

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Overnight stuff seems more 90 north doesn’t it?

should be good down into CT too

starting to pop some convection. HRRR/RRFS have hinted at something popping around Springfield/BDL around this time

Glad we don't have to worry about that

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Both nams have a lot of elevated instability tonight. Overnight bangers.

That's some pretty impressive elevated instability by the NAM overnight. Even the latest HRRR is pretty solid. Think we want to watch for whether we can sneak into the northern edge of the steep lapse rate plume which should at least graze the coast. Regardless, still decent elevated instability but could be looking at something along the lines of 500-800 J versus upwards of 1500+ if we can get into those steeper lapse rates. 

Perhaps some risk for large hail?

1 minute ago, radarman said:

It's pretty annoying when BOX and ENX are both range folding right over us when the strongest cell in the area is here.  As was the case this evening.

Yeah that was frustrating the heck out of me. Had two phones in my hand because I was taking some video in the event the winds got real so wasn't able to easily switch tilts to try and sample a bit higher up.

I wish we could get a TDWR at BDL 

wind was kind of meh here...that kind of blows. core of the wind must have missed this area. 

IN A WARNING!!!!! Let’s go!!!!

Might have to watch that cell going into Litchfield county 

Haven’t heard any thunder but it’s about to absolutely downpour here. Sky is super dark as this closes in