weatherwiz

Since Thursday is October I'll just put this here

Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM 

Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

A lot of people have an infatuation with drama or the need to always be a part of extreme events. The clickbaiters give them exactly what they want. 

sports is the same way. so many click bait articles when it comes to sports

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

most people don't get their information from local outlets but click bait mets, and there is mpst of the disconnect

The gap between television and other sources such as mobiles apps and social media is closing, however, local television is still rated as the #1 source. Even if people are getting information from other sources, a large percentage still revert to their local network as a means to try and verify the validity. 

Nowcasts and storm updates, particularly during extreme weather events (severe weather, winter storms, etc.) are absolutely critical and part of the forecasting process 

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I do not agree with that at all. lol I think numerous people do not put a lot of trust in forecasts.  ...especially after this in the Merrimack Valley area..

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m not sure there’s a lot of trust in forecasts generally, but the storm being the lead story for a few days isn’t necessarily hype in my book. Now, if you’re not adjusting your forecast as you’re certainly heading toward a bust, that’s a whole different issue and problematic. 

Other than the clowns online using 925mb wind images and calling this tropical, I didn’t see a lot of hype, but we probably have different definitions of what hype is. Showing a legitimate rain and wind forecast map and saying we don’t usually get these in September doesn’t rise to the level for me. 

There's research out there (but yeah you could argue lack of sample size) which shows a great deal of trust within weather forecasts, particularly with weather forecasts from local outlets. 

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

C'mon for days the lead story on the news was the storm. The hype created  panic. Numerous events in the Merrimack Valley area were postponed or cancelled. At no time was any adjustments made to the forecast  for the Merrimack Valley area. Yesterday morning TWC had the area in the 2-3 more inches of rain to come area....not even close..

Just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped, majority of the news audience tunes in for weather. Weather is a significant portion of news ratings. Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision. Even I year ago I laughed at how schools cancel so easily now, I made a post slamming schools because of closing for a potential wind event last year. However, a post from FXWX swayed my mind a bit and the various research papers I've read in this Weather and Society course I am currently taking has altered my perspective. There is an increasing trend for people to be on the safe side and one of the reasons for these decisions is people comparing risk versus "reward". Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. 

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..but the hype was off the charts...none of the hypemasters on TV offered up an explanation this morning....

I don't recall any local TV stations hyping anything up. Like i said, forecast was very well communicated. Multiple days (several really) of communication allowed people to prepare, particularly emergency management and utility companies. Because of the staging and extra resources Eversouce dedicated ahead of time power outages were resolved in a timely manner and this helped keep numbers at a reasonable level. There was also some significant coastal flooding as advertised and you'd have to think those along the coast prepared and anticipated on this and impact the best they could. I don't recall any outlets out there stating any storm impacts being more extreme that what occurred. 

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That is true for some areas but the storm was a bust in the Merrimack Valley area.

There are always going to be areas which either meet forecast expectations, receive greater storm impact than forecast, or end up with lesser impact than forecast. From a forecasting perspective there are many situations where a forecaster can have an idea of where greater impacts/lesser impacts are more likely, however, it becomes a great challenge presenting that and conveying that to the general public. There are also situations where this is highly dependent on small-scale processes related to exact storm evolution. 

For an anomalous storm (relative to the time of year) and some of the challenges among forecast guidance, this was an extremely well forecast storm and communicated quite well. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But yet the next coastal…everybody will say that it shows a miss, so it must be on to something…

or in 3 months it will be the only one showing a blizzard and say it must be onto something  

3 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Yup. On the other hand, GFS was completely schooled by Euro. It was the last, or close to it, to come on board to the actual solution.   

The GFS is virtually unusable 

41 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

If the Euro is right with the evolution of the LLJ we should see a notable uptick in winds across LI/CT between now and 8p. Worth watching that. 

50 knots showing up at 925

Probably going to start ramping up the flooding potential 

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it rips tonight even interior CT. 

RAP is pretty impressive. Even starts cranking the LLJ a bit earlier than some of the other guidance. 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tblizz house could get hit by ltg and he’ll

meh it

"meh lightning hit the house and blew out the outlets in every room but the bathroom was fine". 

Just now, dendrite said:

Ditty and ORH are at 975mb already

House gone tonight? 

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Any shot at a spinner down there? 

There's a giant spinner south of Long Island 

HWW for CT shoreline  

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta be able to mix it down from 950mb…if we can’t then it’s nothing to exciting.  

One thing to keep in mind too is as the surface pressure lowers as the storm continues to deepen and push north, 950mb isn't going to be particularly far from the surface...so much less vertical distance needed to reach and mix. Any inversion may end up being minute anyways, in fact, may not even be much of a negator. We're seeing good gusts 30-50 mph which really isn't anything different from what's just above the deck. 

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what are the sounding/profiles like compared to the near coastal SSTs 

There's def a subtle inversion but one thing of note is the BL isn't fully saturated - there is enough Td - T separation that we probably could mix that down. Have to watch temp and dew point trends through the evening. Also have to watch for convection - have a few hundred J of MUCAPE which is probably helping with those isolated embedded thunderstorms in CT

16z HRRR is widespread 40-50+ knots at 950mb from eastern MA back through much of CT overnight and 55 knots towards the coast

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm curious what people would like us to do.

For example, look at the call to action on the NWS coastal flood warnings and high wind warnings. Probably more "panicky" than anything a met said on air. 

Our forecast will turn out to be pretty much perfect in terms of wind gusts, impacts (scattered outages), and coastal flooding (minor to barely moderate). 

I don't see this storm or have not seen this storm hyped by any local meteorologists out there. The key points of storm impacts were illustrated and highlighted well. How people decide to respond and actions taken is on them. 

In fact, I think you could even argue what measure people are taken is not in fact a bad thing but a mere positive. It illustrates increased awareness from the public, a greater trust from the public in forecasts, and people's ability to manage around inclement weather. I don't really see anything wrong with stores being "flooded" with people before a storm. I mean, in this day in age, who has the means to keep a fully stocked fridge and freezer? People are probably getting food and supplies "as needed". 

9 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Man, that one chair saved you from having to pick up a mess of shattered glass.

---

PWM

66/48 BKN with a few gusts in the  20 kt range.

I hate that table, I wouldn't have minded if the chair was there  

But yeah that would have not been fun, especially having a dog. Getting the glass off the pavement wouldn't have been terrible but if any small pieces got into the lawn...yikes. 

LFG