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weatherwiz

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    Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

    in New England

    Posted

    Has anyone seen these before? They’re incredibly tiny orange big/insect…whatever. Sitting outside and feeling random spots of itchiness and I’ll see a super small orange looking thing and I’m guessing they bite or something because I’ll have a tiny red bite mark. No clue where they are coming from or what they are. They’re like those tiny red bugs that leave a blood dot but these are orange and even smaller. 

    Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

    in New England

    Posted

    Obviously this isn't going to impact many posters here and the population density isn't as high, however, this potential is deserving of its own thread. The potential exists for a rather significant severe weather event either late Tuesday afternoon or evening/overnight across northern New England. 

    Daytime temperatures are expected to climb well into the 80's within the region and probably some spot 90's with dewpoints pushing into the lower 70's. This combination under the presence of an elevated-mixed layer characterized by mid-level lapse rates on order of 7+ C/Km will result in an extremely unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values pushing or exceeding 3000 J/KG. While the timing of this event may be more evening or overnight, instability values will drop off due to the loss of daytime heating, however, MLCAPE values should remain around 1500+  J/KG. 

    With the region on the northern periphery of a stout mid-level ridge that is centered over the northern Plains, strong flow will overspread the region with 60-70+ knots of 500mb flow, aiding in the potential for bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots. In addition, a strong surface cold front will be diving south. 

    The combination of instability and wind shear ahead of the approaching cold front will set the stage for the development of one, or perhaps multiple clusters or lines of thunderstorms across Quebec which propagate across northern New England late in the day or during the evening or overnight. Given the ingredients, the potential exists for a concentrated swath of damaging wind gusts (perhaps some significant wind gusts), and if any supercells develop there will be a risk for large-to-very large hail, and even the risk for a few tornadoes (though this is largely dependent on storm mode and whether surface winds can remain more southerly ahead of the front. 

    • Like 2

    Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

    in New England

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

    It's funny that people think this is something nefarious.

    The issue is that the weather graphics vendor most stations use (your former employer) have an almost impossible to figure out UI when it comes to building bar graphs and charts. TBH, it's why I don't show them very often. Obviously it shouldn't have been used but we're generally using horribly outdated equipment and graphics systems that are generally awful all around.

    At WestConn we still had to use PowerPoint for our broadcasts because the school refused to pay for WSI and didn't care how important it was. I'm pretty sure they still use PowerPoint to this day. 

    Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

    It is all about getting people to watch and/or page hits to generate advertising dollars.

    People are attracted to those types of headlines....if they said something like "it's going to be  a typical July day in the east"...their  audience would be lower..

    It is always best to ignore the hype in weather and sports...

    Wish this concept was more easily grasp by the population 

    Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

    in New England

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    Weather is just sexier now to show on the news because we are able to catch raw and captivating video like never before. Everyone has a smart phone and can send it to a news network.

    I will say that when the national news shows clips of severe weather as a headline, you'd think the weather has gone wild, but to me it looks like what summer weather brings lol. But to Jane and John Doe it might not. But that's just how it is. Footage of severe weather captivates people.

    the headlines with severe weather are a joke. "Tens of thousands under the gun for severe weather". CNN and NY Post loves to do this. Then you have clowns like Ryan Hall and Max Velocity who have to use that headline and that have their stupid looking face making a stupid reaction in their thumbnails. 

    • Like 1

    Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

    Ryan was concerned that some areas were in for flooding too…so what can you do? Modeling was throwing those ideas around. 

    Concern for some localized flash flooding, sure. But some of what was going around made it seem like flooding was going to be a large or widespread issue. But this is becoming a big problem in forecasting when it comes to some of these products. Folks see ensembles going crazy and all of a sudden alarm bells are sounded without fully divulging into all the data and then you have these products like extreme forecast index which further adds to the alarm bells. Yes, sure when you have these products showing something extreme there definitely should be concern, but they can't just be taken at face value nor should they be. Same goes with severe weather and winter weather...even in the west, a ton of events will get all hyped up with talk of tornado outbreaks and strong tornadoes because supercell composite parameter/significant tornado parameter forecasts are "through the roof" then the event comes and there are barely any tornadoes, let alone strong ones. And of course winter...D12 snowmaps show widespread 20-30" storms and here goes the social media hype for a massive blizzard. 

    While sure there were guidance throwing around widespread 4-8" rain amounts and isolated higher totals, it was pretty clear that was not going to be the case and any amounts that excessive would most likely be extremely isolated or confined closer to where the warm front would be and it was also clear these totals would be spread out over a longer duration. Overall flood risk appeared low. 

    Like I said earlier, watch in a few weeks we will get a setup with produces flooding and there will be little talk of the potential. For whatever reason it seems anytime talk of flooding is possible it never pans out, then we get setups where there is little mention of flooding possibility and you have problems all over. 

    Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

    in New England

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

     

     

     

    All of you were forecasting regional flooding and a few had 4-6” of rain for the area . None of those things happened. So sure there was more rain than I thought, but nothing like what you called for at various points the last  few days . Let’s look in the mirror and own up.

    The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?).

    One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming 

    • 100% 1

    Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

    in New England

    Posted

    Were there even any major flood reports or any flooding reports outside of the typical low street or poor drainage? All that was going around on social media you would have thought disaster was coming lol. Meanwhile in 3 weeks we'll get a setup with no flood watches, no WPC area for flooding, and half of the Merritt and stretches of 95 from CT into RI/SE MA will be underwater with cars trapped 

    • 100% 2
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