weatherwiz

58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing is still 3.5 days out …you don’t think there’s enough time to trend this a 100 miles? Geez Paul, I think we all know that’s very doable at this juncture for sure. But maybe you’ll be right? Gonna be a fun couple days seeing how this turns out. 

IMO, there's alot more that needs to happen than just trending west but I am also not necessarily sold on some of the recent trends we have seen with the ridging and better interaction of the two energies...we've seen this happen plenty of times of late where within this time range (3-5 days) there are these subtle shifts which trend better. I suspect by 12z Friday we will begin to see a trend back in the opposite direction with the heights in the west and energy interaction. 

Also, even with the better interaction of energies, the upper level dynamics still aren't very favorable for low pressure development at the sfc...we have to look closer to where the baroclinic zone is present to get some llvl spinup present and I think its just too far south to do any good for us. But that said, at least snow showers are still possible farther east. 

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Idk about several hundred miles lol we are talking about snow in New England not Hudson Bay

probably more so a few hundred miles but we always play the "what if" game with these things  

A heck of alot more needs to happen than just tweaking the interaction between the two energies 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve been unwavering in thinking this is a measurable event for most of SNE.

Would be nice and I hope that happens but all of these "nice trends" are going to have to happen upwards of several hundred miles farther west. Not very likely to get that at this stage

start digging the trough farther west towards Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois then maybe there is a chance. Otherwise the most favored spot for sfc low development is still way too south to give us anything outside of some snow showers.

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Way to be TBlizz.  Then Goose and Wiz crush hopes with it ain’t happening.  Here’s to hoping they are both wrong. 

Correct

Put me on record as to saying this is a nada for everyone but maybe enough to get some stray snow showers, particularly east

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Big ice?

It's a race between when we get our next region wide crippling ice storm and a cat 3 hurricane

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum.  I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts  and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility.  In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

definitely possible...the BL may be a bit torched down that way.

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I still lean towards a miss being more likely out of all the possibilities.  Once again I almost would rather be in the northern MA right now if you forced me to take a stand one way or another.  There is a chance this could get its act together in time that C-SNJ or the PHL area could get a few inches and NYC to BOS could miss out.

Agreed. They are closer to the llv baroclinic zone and also more in line with the RR of the jet

Just now, dryslot said:

Went negative a bit late this run as it rounds the base, If you get a bit better ridge out west to start this a bit sooner this could go boom.

ehhh its too much of a big if. I mean there has to be some sort of reasoning or some clue to provide evidence that would be possible. 

I think this one is done. Even with a better interaction of the closed low and trough, the profile just scream cyclogenesis and the low-level baroclinic zone is way too far south. By the time diffluence starts developing aloft...its way too late and sfc low doesn't get going until well east. 

Our best shot IMO is getting that baroclinic zone farther north and working with llvl magic. I don't think that ridge in the west is going to have much influence on anything versus just getting a better interaction with the two energies...but that alone isn't or won't be enough. All of this would start to have to occur several hundred miles west.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to be a bit better on the 12z GFS then 06z run, Baby steps.

Looks like the closed low digs into the base of the trough much better this run but ultimately, aloft doesn't appear too conducive for sfc low development

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

hoping for a very strong cutter with a trackable fine-line. Santa?

Santa having to go down the chimney straight into the basement?

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

It's the NAM.but looks interesting at hr 84

Sure does

If you live in Bloomington, IL

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is soupy 80s to Virginia where they have deep pack now lol .. I can see Christmas week delivering a nasty ice storm for the northeast GFS has the cold in Canada ready to be tapped .. Kevin may get his dream, a very dark Christmas

Absolutely something to keep in mind. Like dendrite said...this could easily turn into an overrunning pattern. Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the H5 charts but the sfc may not always connect. Remember back in like 2017(?) the Great Plains were under like 560 heights and it was widespread single digits at the sfc lol because they had that stout Arctic high. 

Just now, dendrite said:

It’ll verify here as variably cloudy and 38°

along with scattered rain showers 

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up 

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop.

So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

Yup...definitely something to consider. Could see 564 heights at 500 and +10C at 850 but could easily be wedged at the sfc 

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This would be lol though

I'm ready for May. Time to fire up the thread

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well... The first 9 days have been super cold, and if this does pan out, it looks like it would only pan out for less than a week. If that. This map looks kind of odd to me though. Having the whole continental United States and half of Eastern Canada this warm doesn't make any sense. It just doesn't look right to me, but what do I know.

Well this is just an anomaly map...these colors don't necessarily mean "warm", especially this time of year. It's relative to climo. So for like NNE...its still going to be cold or chilly but a bit above of what it should be for the time of year. 

I guess one big question when comparing this stretch of subpar winters versus stretches of subpar winters historically is, are the reasonings similar or are there glaring differences? For example, (as mentioned earlier), if our snowfall is more correlated to precipitation versus temperature and historically, our subpar winters occurred with winter which were abnormally dry, but our subpar winters now are occurring with average-to-above average precipitation, well then there clearly is a differentiator. Where subpar winters historically connected to periods of faster flow aloft, lack of storms, suppression, etc. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there will be a break, and perhaps a protracted one at that, but I don't see an early end to winter.

If people are upset with the pattern and how things have done so far then they should be hoping for this break IMO. If this pattern sucks as some say...well the best way to get out of that is to break it and thats what we would be doing towards the end of the month. But I don't see anything signaling we flip to prolonged riding. But...I will say, I don't think it can totally be tossed out. Let's say the Arctic becomes unfavorable and we get a stronger PV that contracts...we open the flood gates for the jet to retract northward and get a milder, zonal flow across the country. Not saying that happens but it was a concern I had a few months back based on how the PAC had looked.

We were bound to get some ridging and warmer temperatures at some point. That doesn't mean winter is done or winter is over. 

The good news is any ridging that period should be short-lived and looks like the pattern is re-loading as well. Maybe in some way this will help set things up more favorably moving into January. 

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later.  Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

I think this goes to show that even ensembles have their biases and limitations. At that range, it's all we really have but these patterns we have been in, sometimes smoothing and just averaging isn't really going to tell the true story. But at that range...nothing else we can really do or utilize so just have to roll with it and proceed with caution. 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually a nice look for SE MA. 

Looks fine to me...even around MA Pike 

I was hoping to see some CAPE modeled