weatherwiz

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

From a friend in Arkansas, @weatherwiz.

WOW! 

Been some monster hailers these past few days. I wonder if we can pull off a 4.50-5.00" in Texas today. 

24 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Too much AM convection likely the culprit.  That can be overcome though it conditions are ideal, like April 27, 2011, but so often is mucks up the low-levels,

Good point. There might not have been that much of a recovery time, despite the evolving environment. 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You should start counting down to June 1st because every May is shiat

I have considered this. 

Perhaps I should, then May's not suck anymore  

3 days left  

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Big bust for tors.  PDS tor watch and MEH.  When the PDS watch was issued, it took several hours even to have a single tstm in it!

I was initially shocked to see the PDS tornado watch, especially given it was south of where the best overlap of ingredients seemed to be and even south of the moderate risk which was for the higher tornado probs. I wonder if the lack of upper-level forcing was a big culprit in this...those situations are always a challenge because too much forcing (or too strong) and you'll have convection developing all over the place making it difficult for convection to become mature enough and utilize the environment fully. Probably should throw in capping too...that EML may have been a bit too strong (coincident with the weaker forcing). This may have been a huge issue even in Missouri...many of those cells were really trying to take off but something was impeding those updrafts from really taking off. 

2 tornado warnings for STL in like 90 minutes 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

33 diurnal change before noon.   That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.  

pretty crazy...went from a chill with the heat kicking on a few hours ago to about ready to open windows  

4 days to go  

Equal to the number of goals the Bruins allowed in the first period in game 4

what an environment that will be in place across eastern Missouri today. CAMs have been incredibly nasty around the STL market. Going to be wild there today

Unfortunately, the prospects for any sustained temperatures above the seasonal average is quite low as we move into the month of May and we may even have to wait fairly deep into May to flip the script. Unseasonably strong late season blocking continues to be a dominant mode within the Arctic domain and Greenland resulting in troughniess and below average heights dominating from the northern Inter-mountain West region across the northern Plains, upper-Midwest, and Northeast. There are some hints on the GFS/Euro we could see this pattern breakdown a bit moving towards mid-May, however, it is very possible that is a bit too optimistic and it is just the weighting of climo towards the end of the run making it appear the pattern will breakdown. 

Hopefully towards the back end of the month we can introduce some heat, humidity, and severe weather chances. While May is the beginning of severe weather season, that doesn't mean we get flooded with threats right away. Just like how June 1 is the official beginning to the Atlantic hurricane season...we aren't flooded with hurricanes on June 2. Patience, patience, patience. 

5 days left  

6 days to go  

A touchdown and a Borregales extra point miss away 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

We can hope high pressure wins out over SE canada-it would be cool but at least we could get some sun.

Yeah it's not going to be doom and gloom 100% of the time. We'll have our mix of pleasant days and crap day, it's just the crap days may win out. So, we just take the pleasant days we can and hope they happen on the weekend. For the most part its just going to be a bit on the cool side, but with climatological maxes slowly creeping up, even the "cool days" with respect to climo won't be too bad. 

Unfortunately, this crap pattern is probably going to persist at least through the first few weeks of May. These types of patterns aren't ones that tend to break down quickly either.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

What a way to start May

Unfortunately not looking so hot possibly through the first half of the month  

Down to 7 days!

A touchdown + the kick away  

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I'll post this on the general forum, but since this is relevant for NNE, I'll post it here.

On 6/26, MSC will begin storm-specific SVR and TOR warnings. See here:

https://dd.meteo.gc.ca/doc/genots/2026/04/21/NOCN04_CWAO_211100___07621

This is good b/c before you'd see huge area outlined in warnings on apps like RadarScope. Now they will be smaller and more focused.

This is wonderful!

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

56/32 FEW

Not a bad day out there although there’s some rogue good gusts at times. 

Wow you're not kidding. Just got some pretty decent gusts all of a sudden. Guessing we must have just reached ~850mb for mixing level.

8 days to go!!! Getting exciting 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, completely agreed!   ( full disclosure, I'm hoping for it).   I don't wanna give Kevin any reason at all to start pimping utterly fallacies in attempts to set up the dystopian d-drip doses all summer... meanwhile, my lawn stays green until mid august. 

Yeah, as far as the NAO handling... it's ( we know this -) obviously a stochastic index domain... but I just sort of ignore the distractions of the individual model runs and just rely on a combination of 3 basics:  the 5 day running mean of the synoptic structure; climatology;  personal experience - as you mentioned, that -NAOs tend to blossom/lag after a period of usual early warmth - particularly when said warmth is over the eastern mid latitude continent. This latter need correlative proof and is personally anecdotal, but it is a late winter and spring phenomenon I have noted over many years.  

Just combining all that gunk... -NAO appears set up and well ?

I recall coming across something recently too (I forgot who it was) about the PV vortex and how it seemed to be much slower with its seasonal demise through the spring so far. It's like the hemisphere on our side of the globe is dying to get us into an early summer but the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere is still programed to be blocky. Maybe rooting for these early season anomalous warm spells isn't a good idea lol...I mean eventually the ridging in place responsible for that warmth has to get shunted east (unless its a scenario in which the ridge just totally breaks down) and what happens when that ridging shunts east? You are building those positive heights into Greenland and it's hello block. With this we've fed the Arctic domain what it needs to become manifested in what it wants to do and the result is...weeks of hell. 

One thing that makes me really nervous going into May is the signal for some stout ridging to develop across the north Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. Eventually these teleconnections should begin to break down and their influence subside, but this opens the door to get omega block like moving into May.  

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It looks 'to me' like that's sort of symbolic as like a last hurrah exit... might even manifest as a bona fide coastal/Nor'easter - though before gallooting, know that it would swept rains.  I wouldn't be shocked if a new moon is scheduled then too.  I've stopped fighting why the Earth's atmosphere always picks on Block Island during full moon/spring tides, and just now use the modeled atmosphere to tell when they are without using astro charts ... heh.

Anyway, after that would-be event ( just just the 30th -2nd period in general), I sense a significant flip may occur.  I could see very very subtle hints of that in the operational Euro model's extended artistry, but now the control version of both its, and the GFS's ensemble systems are nose diving the PNA very negative into the first week of the month.  Mind us, this is the 22nd of April so it's not like it's a coon's age away.  We'll see.  I'm wondering if the this time next week we're looking at an impressive see-saw warming over the eastern mid latitudes - above season/climo.

People would probably hate this but like I mentioned yesterday, a Nor'easter bringing a region wide soaking wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But lets just hope we start to flip things not too long after. 

I've been intrigued by this idea over the past few days and it got me thinking about what you said last week regarding there being some atmospheric hangover in the modeling from the current NAO we are in. Admittedly, I have not looked at ensembles yet and just going off some OP runs, so not sure what kind of signal the ensembles have, but just looking at the NAO forecast, there seems to be a bit of spread in the NAO forecast moving forward, but the signal is for the NAO becoming less negative over time...but if you play out the OP (GFS) that signal looks just opposite. So I am wondering if perhaps the OP might be a bit out too lunch. Looking at ensembles though would certainly help answer this question  But I don't really care about that far ahead yet so haven't put any heavy detailed thought into it lol

That is one heck of an evolution to kick off May. That is a pretty nasty block and a good looking block too...that's the type of blocking we want to see in Jan/Feb lol. 

Down go 9 days! 

It would suck because its early May, but for those worried about dry grounds and "drought" conditions, one way to fix that is a good ole coastal. A good widespread 1-3" of rain for a day wouldn't be a terrible thing

10 days to go!!!

And with that we will begin a 10 day countdown

It's like the New Years countdown but much slower.