weatherwiz

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, completely agreed!   ( full disclosure, I'm hoping for it).   I don't wanna give Kevin any reason at all to start pimping utterly fallacies in attempts to set up the dystopian d-drip doses all summer... meanwhile, my lawn stays green until mid august. 

Yeah, as far as the NAO handling... it's ( we know this -) obviously a stochastic index domain... but I just sort of ignore the distractions of the individual model runs and just rely on a combination of 3 basics:  the 5 day running mean of the synoptic structure; climatology;  personal experience - as you mentioned, that -NAOs tend to blossom/lag after a period of usual early warmth - particularly when said warmth is over the eastern mid latitude continent. This latter need correlative proof and is personally anecdotal, but it is a late winter and spring phenomenon I have noted over many years.  

Just combining all that gunk... -NAO appears set up and well ?

I recall coming across something recently too (I forgot who it was) about the PV vortex and how it seemed to be much slower with its seasonal demise through the spring so far. It's like the hemisphere on our side of the globe is dying to get us into an early summer but the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere is still programed to be blocky. Maybe rooting for these early season anomalous warm spells isn't a good idea lol...I mean eventually the ridging in place responsible for that warmth has to get shunted east (unless its a scenario in which the ridge just totally breaks down) and what happens when that ridging shunts east? You are building those positive heights into Greenland and it's hello block. With this we've fed the Arctic domain what it needs to become manifested in what it wants to do and the result is...weeks of hell. 

One thing that makes me really nervous going into May is the signal for some stout ridging to develop across the north Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. Eventually these teleconnections should begin to break down and their influence subside, but this opens the door to get omega block like moving into May.  

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It looks 'to me' like that's sort of symbolic as like a last hurrah exit... might even manifest as a bona fide coastal/Nor'easter - though before gallooting, know that it would swept rains.  I wouldn't be shocked if a new moon is scheduled then too.  I've stopped fighting why the Earth's atmosphere always picks on Block Island during full moon/spring tides, and just now use the modeled atmosphere to tell when they are without using astro charts ... heh.

Anyway, after that would-be event ( just just the 30th -2nd period in general), I sense a significant flip may occur.  I could see very very subtle hints of that in the operational Euro model's extended artistry, but now the control version of both its, and the GFS's ensemble systems are nose diving the PNA very negative into the first week of the month.  Mind us, this is the 22nd of April so it's not like it's a coon's age away.  We'll see.  I'm wondering if the this time next week we're looking at an impressive see-saw warming over the eastern mid latitudes - above season/climo.

People would probably hate this but like I mentioned yesterday, a Nor'easter bringing a region wide soaking wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But lets just hope we start to flip things not too long after. 

I've been intrigued by this idea over the past few days and it got me thinking about what you said last week regarding there being some atmospheric hangover in the modeling from the current NAO we are in. Admittedly, I have not looked at ensembles yet and just going off some OP runs, so not sure what kind of signal the ensembles have, but just looking at the NAO forecast, there seems to be a bit of spread in the NAO forecast moving forward, but the signal is for the NAO becoming less negative over time...but if you play out the OP (GFS) that signal looks just opposite. So I am wondering if perhaps the OP might be a bit out too lunch. Looking at ensembles though would certainly help answer this question  But I don't really care about that far ahead yet so haven't put any heavy detailed thought into it lol

That is one heck of an evolution to kick off May. That is a pretty nasty block and a good looking block too...that's the type of blocking we want to see in Jan/Feb lol. 

Down go 9 days! 

It would suck because its early May, but for those worried about dry grounds and "drought" conditions, one way to fix that is a good ole coastal. A good widespread 1-3" of rain for a day wouldn't be a terrible thing

10 days to go!!!

And with that we will begin a 10 day countdown

It's like the New Years countdown but much slower. 

Another frosty morning 

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

It is 4/20

what's this accumulated supercell energy products or whatever they're called that are going around? 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like there's a secondary cold front according to WPC's most recent surface analysis. Some of this might be a response to that pressure perturbation coming thru.  But it is on the move...  looping vis it probably doesn't last the whole daylight.   Along this end of Rt 2 we're holding out with sun for the moment.

Yeah, you'll get 15 minutes before sunset hahaha.  

Yeah looking at mesoanlysis there definitely is a second weak feature about to slide through the region. Satellite does appear hopeful that perhaps we clear some behind that passage but I am worried that a combination of very cold mlvl temps + residual mlvl moisture is going to result a continuing of building cloud over. But maybe we transform from more stratus to more cumulus like

Very thick overcast making it pretty dark. Kind of reminds me of those gloomy January days when its dark out at 3:30 because of the thick overcast and sun already nearing the horizon

Looks like we miss out on at least some isolated thunderstorms tomorrow night...looks to be back over PA. Looks to be associated with the approaching warm front and some decent lapse rates/elevated instability. Nice theta-e ridge too. Maybe some upslope snows though for the southern Greens? 

Pretty frosty out there this morning

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Possible tornado last night a couple of miles from me.  NWS sent a team out to survey.

https://www.wcax.com/2026/04/17/nws-surveying-thunderstorm-damage-williamstown-friday/

https://www.mynbc5.com/article/nws-tornado-investigation-williamstown-vermont/71051947

 

AWT

4 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Hoping we do get 3 or 4 hours below freezing Tuesday AM to kill of some of the black flies that are already buzzing around. Seems like the years that we do get a nice Mid-April freeze after the first hatchings, we then have significantly fewer black flies for the rest of the season.

maybe even kill off some ticks 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems like relative to every pattern ... results are +  

Whether it is .001 of a single degree F, or +10 Fs, +'s are sort of a baked in ( no pun intended ) consequence of being in a +d(C)   where C denotes climate. 

But it's not just temperature?   seriously...I see something subtle in the circumstances, too.  Today is a perfect example. Right now, it is 69 F here... we are about to go above 70 F. 

Yet, looking at the satellite and WPC's surface synopsis, this appears to be a backside cyclone scenario.   The strata entrails and scuddies are moving NE-SW...  and there's regions of pancaking coming d-slope and evaporating as they come.  

Meanwhile, the main/real polar boundary is situated up in S Canada.  I don't recall ever seeing cyclone mechanics closed off like this, INSIDE a warm sector. 

Much less... in April

These are odd circumstances.  These kind of idiosyncratic things... I just have an Aspergery kind of memory about weather situations since I was apparently designated by birth to waste a life with a Meteorological talent that will provide nothing for anyone  ha   ( I'm like the Michigan Jay Frog of weather minutia ).  Anyway, I'm I keep having to step back over this shit and going, "what in the f is happening here". 

Things are just behaving differently ...whether it shows up in the thermometers or not. And they're just under the radar, too subtle for most to even be aware... for one thing, who the fuck is complaining or getting spooked by 70 on April 17 in a "cold sector" behind a cyclone inside a warm sector ... Too nice to care.   It's just unknowable to them. 

Reminds me of a few Aprils ago (or maybe it was early May) but we had that dome of well below average 925/850mb temps overhead and yet we where still putting out ~ average. 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully this verifies

That would be a giant FU

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 60’s to near 70 middle/ end of next week 

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

26 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

ever take the ferry ?  a few bucks more but much less stress

Briefly looked into it but I don't think my girlfriend would swing that and with the Bruins playing Sunday I don't want to risk having something come up and miss any of the game. 

Unless I was looking wrong the prices were insane. 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models don't show all that much rain for Sunday-maybe some scattered showers vs an all day stratiform rain?

Hoping its more scattered showers but QPF signal is decent right now. But just showers is going to cause probably 10 accidents  and unless I do a different route, form 95 a good part of the trip will be the Merritt. Unless I just do 95 to like New Haven then shoot up 91.

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Next week is shit for all. Although I will add that we may get a couple of decent NW flow days late week once the core of the cold passes. Anything with sun is a plus.

sun is definitely going to be needed. But I think we should end up being fine...we'll have a chance to climb before we start clouding over. 50's is going to suck versus 70's and 80's but it would be worse (It will be worse for some though where there are only 40's)

If you compare to this week yeah it will suck but the upcoming stretch doesn't look terrible by any means. Different tune though for those probably closer to the coast but nothing abnormal for April really. We should at least climb to average most days or in that ballpark. 

Driving down to Long Island tomorrow evening for a wedding on Saturday (I'm the best man!). Not looking forward to driving back in rain on Sunday. Might try and leave early in the morning or sleep in a bit and leave before checkout...but it depends on what time the Bruins game ends up being. Hate driving in rain...probably be like 20 accidents. At least it will be daylight

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nice to see that...we'll see how it works out.  There's quite a bit of clearing sweeping up across the area at mid and u/a levels according to high res vis loop this hour.  As that expands over this sludge it will be interesting to see how the mid April sun goes to war over top. 

The day glow is also already elevating over the last 10 min here so my est for 11 am might not be so bad. 

Gotta watch exactly where that boundary ends up because we may see some transient supercells along it 

wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado today anywhere from central VT through central NH

AWT

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

How about 'dem bruins ? At least we get four more games.

Playoff hockey! Nothing like it