weatherwiz

Have to head to the store later and grab a few things...definitely switching from shorts to jeans. going to suck

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In all fairness, Lots of us south of Hartford in CT are gonna end up with 3-4” plus if this goes all night.  I realize there’s quite the cut off north of CT boarder…but South of that it’s adding up. 

Yeah but nothing near the widespread 4-6/5-7" that was floating around on some of the guidance. And the overall flooding risk seems relatively low...I don't think the moderate was necessarily needed by the WPC. This was a long drawn out steady rain (and kind of in chunks). Will be worse off to our south. Definitely a much needed rain for sure but overall this was below a much more concerning flooding risk 

Noah almost cancelled his plans in Heaven to come down and build an arc when he saw all these crazy ensembles and high extreme forecasts index. Good thing he decided not too

The NAM does go ray with the LLJ too but still, if you want to see excessive rainfall amounts with a high flood concern, you're going to want to see a situation where the rain band is essentially stationary. This isn't exactly hauling but its not really crawling through either. 

This evolution doesn't scream flood to me outside of any typical spots that flood even when someone leaves their garden hose on too long. I want to see an expansive area of 35-40+ dbz which is almost not moving and with a continuous fetch of moisture and a continued blossoming of the precip shield with intense echoes so the rain shield is essentially stationary. 

I think its safe to say, that can be tossed and tossed very far

Goes very wild with the llvl jet 

30 minutes ago, yoda said:

Is this what @weatherwiz is salivating over? Lol

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
   increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
   Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
   continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
   interior U.S. by early next week.  How far north and northeast this
   builds remains unclear;  however, a plume of very warm elevated
   mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
   through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
   contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
   severe thunderstorm development.  

   It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
   Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast.  By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
   particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
   trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
   which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
   development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. 
   Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
   model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
   than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
   change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

We can only hope 

19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Think later this afternoon and tonight will be wild for some

IDK This really doesn't seem all that impressive nor does it look like it is going to evolve to be so. Just a good ole fashion steady, soaking rain. Highest totals probably end up coastal CT/Long Island. Congrats to the Fish in the Sound

11 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It'll be fine, sometimes I wonder if covers are more a hassle than they are worth.  They also become a bee haven.

Good point. Towards the end of last summer when I would take the cover off before using it I would have bees flying out from it

Looking like the max totals will def be towards the coast but probably nothing obscene. Probably some totals up around 4-5"...maybe someone gets 6"

Damn it, I forgot to cover the grill before bed last night after making burgers  

26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Never say never, but I think this was good ol' fashioned straight line wind. That was a textbook bowing signature. You had a great signal for a rear inflow jet.

People are always surprised when they see real wind damage.

I think I saw vortex95 mention this but the reflectivity gradient along the leading edge of those storms was about as textbook as you'll see for these parts, hell that would even be impressive anywhere else. Anytime you see a super strong wind signature like that I guess there is the risk for a brief spinup but I don't think there was anything really pointing towards a tornado or rotation. Velocity signatures on all radar sites was pretty evident with straight-line wind signatures and if you look at the environment, there really wasn't anything supportive for tornado formation. Just a textbook classic setup for straightline winds and widespread given the development of a cold pool. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FF risk is wherever the warm front  sets up. You aren’t getting 10” of deformation rain on 700 warm front. 

The warm front may not even get into SNE at all. Very possible it sets up to where coastal CT across coastal RI and far SE MA get the highest totals (anything greater than 3-4").

idk...I would you would want to see more convective processes involved when talking about potential for these widespread excessive totals some of the short-term models are indicating. I can see 1-3" widespread and then probably a narrow zone where you get maybe 4-5" but that may be more isolated versus widespread. 

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Also that can is 2 inches wide.

We don't care how you report it, as long as we can measure it.

I’d like to report High Noon sized hail 

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Terryville CT

Great way to keep a drink cold 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hail threat was observed, I updated it to include up to 2 inch hail possible.

We've had golf balls so far, but MRMS was estimated between 2.25 and 2.75 inches.

That was the area I wanted to go too if I didn’t have stuff today  

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

I only see the golf ball sized hail in the LSR

717
NWUS51 KBOX 050005
LSRBOX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
805 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 W Burlington          41.75N 73.00W
07/04/2026  M56 MPH          Hartford           CT   Public



0749 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Burlington              41.77N 72.97W
07/04/2026                   Hartford           CT   Fire Dept/Rescue

            In Burlington, CT, trees and wires down on
            Route 4. Relayed via Amateur Radio.

0755 PM     Hail             Bristol                 41.68N 72.94W
07/04/2026  M1.75 Inch       Hartford           CT   Trained Spotter

            In Bristol, golf ball sized hail fell.

0759 PM     Hail             1 W Plainville          41.67N 72.91W
07/04/2026  M1.25 Inch       Hartford           CT   Public

            In Plainville, Half Dollar sized hail fell.

The warning updated to say 2” observed 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

There’s 65-70 DBZ scanned south of New Britain.  That’s intense.

My brother lives there but towards the Farmington line. Missed the core by 3.5 miles. Did lose power briefly but no hail

Holy shit 2” hail confirmed

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heard that thunder here 

Can’t believe how bright it was. Still trying to figure if it’s from the Hartford stuff or Litchfield stuff. Anyways was enough to get people to start working inside 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hammer gonna get crushed in WeHa 

Holy shit. Sitting outside in Enfield well out ahead of anything and just saw a super bright flash of lightning. Scrambled to get everyone inside 

Hearing thunder from the stuff around west Hartford 

In Enfield and all the good stuff is going to be passing south booooo