weatherwiz

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. 

Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. 

That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues.

Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. 

Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. 

Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. 

Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well of the East Coast seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years. 

 

Great stuff,

are all these plots from the University of Miami. I love these wind shear/instability plots 

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Something will pop in the subtropics eventually, but this ain’t it.

Today was actually the first day I started thinking about my annual peak season forecast. It’ll be a dead basin this season, but how dead is TBD. 

I was doing some digging last week and some of the extended guidance seemed to want and relax wind shear across the MDR a bit, however, I wasn't particularly sold and was wondering if that was a product of guidance in the extended favoring climo and wanting to decrease shear as we get closer to peak climo. Waters in the MDR are also pretty meh. Will continue to be a focus for home brew, especially as we start getting more active with fronts. 

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

IDK some models have hints of it besides the GFS..  would be OTS anyways but I'm going on a 3 hour fishing trip out of Seabrook NH next Saturday so would be rough 

Water temperatures are way too cold once you quickly get north of NC and there will be a lot of upwelling early next week.

You would need probably a high end 3 or 4 approaching the Carolina coast and rapidly accelerate northward to get a cane hit here. Otherwise any system is would transition to extra-tropical or sub-tropical extremely quickly. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday out in NY state but front may stall here Monday.

Yup...have to see exactly how quickly the front moves and where it stalls. Just based off the look its possible GFS may be a bit too fast with it...although the 6z GFS might be hedging towards something I'd lean towards. But that is a stout LLJ with PWATS well over 2" region-wide. 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday night and Monday could be interesting. 

Yup. 

That's a setup to where you have to worry about flash flooding being a concern over a greater area. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

wow

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cut the size double the price. Now garbage 

McDonalds overall is awful now...not that it was ever particularly great but its extremely overpriced and significantly worse quality. Can let to to like Applebees or Chilis and get a better burger dinner for only a few extra bucks. The McDonalds across from BDL isn't bad though. Had a double quarter pounder from there not long back and it was great.  

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully the McDonalds wizzy eats his filet o’fish at in Troy is underwater. 

Now you have me craving that. Haven't had one of those in a while. 

Dumping here in Windsor. Was hoping we could get a lightning strike out of this

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wiz, are you seeing what's happening around Albany?  

Looking at the ARI chart for the Albany area, for a 24 hour period a 500yr ARI is about 8.25" and 9.25" for 1000yr ARI. At a 90% confidence interval--so the ranges are a bit broader. 

https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=ct

Yes, but that was within the area of where the highest potential for the greatest rainfall totals. Serious stuff there but rather localized and confined to one area. Basically a much needed rain for everyone with little flooding outside of some usual areas in Fairfield County around Bridgeport. 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Again?   Good lord

Very slow moving cold front becoming parallel to the upper flow and potential for a wave to develop along it. Deep southerly flow out ahead of it so a continuous fetch of moisture. See what happens but these is how you can get widespread 3-4" rain amounts and get those areas of 6-7"+

Now Sunday into Monday is something that can be a legit flash flood concern 

I think mosquitos have evolved to the point to where they don't care anymore. As long as its above 50 they will be out looking for blood. Dry conditions, humid conditions, don't matter to them anymore 

Was intrigued in potential for a strong or two within CT today should anything pop but I wonder if there is a window early afternoon for a localized damaging wind gust or brief tornado across SE MA. 

An flooding yet outside of some random Bridgeport roads where the drains are clogged from McDonalds wrappers and bullet shell casings? 

That's some serious heat for the desert Southwest later this week 

Just dropping by to add this

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

I think what's important to note though is a good chunk of that is tied into its prediction of scattered or numerous downpours during the afternoon tomorrow and again on Thursday (that only goes to 15z but speaking to the run as a whole which goes to 18z Thursday). I still highly doubt at the end of the day totals that substantive are that impressive but definitely need to watch the Berks and Greens for that. 

Most from this slug tonight see 1-3" though probably 1.5-2 is the most common...and then its just going to be whoever can catch in on pop up convection the next few days to pad on totals. 

I still don't think the risk for flooding is all that widespread with the greatest flooding risk in typical flood-prone areas.

That does have a bit of a llvl meso on it...relatively weak but worth watching 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't think we see more east of berks until later tonight.

Looks like this stuff was fueled by a pretty tight theta-e gradient and on the edge of some pretty decent MUCAPE. MUCAPE values of 2000 J surging north through SNE. That's not too bad...I don't recall guidance having MUCAPE that high 

In Windsor and getting a hefty downpour currently 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much for the HHH hottest summer ever Top5! Weeklies 

I was hopeful we could sneak in another period of very hot temperatures into the region towards the end of the first week of August but not so confident on that anymore. Seems like the more favorable look is now pushed out into the second week. And when you have to start chasing dates...never usually a good thing, especially when working downhill from peak climo. 

Just now, kdxken said:

Sounds about right. Don't think anyone is calling for 4" region-wide. There'll be some jackpots for sure.

Not so sure about that 

Some of the maps being posted around makes it seem like Noah needs to make another appearance from heaven  

Great to be getting some of these setups lately. Giving people much needed rain without the concern for significant flooding issues. I know there was the flooding within SW CT last week but these events are perfect to tackle the deficit without cause for major concern

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Also, doesn’t seem to be diving as much SE as I would have thought, more NE? 

There is still a quite a bit of uncertainty in how the whole thing evolves for sure. I mean if you look at the latest NAM's, there is actually some potential we get enough drying and maybe even some breaks of sun tomorrow (especially in CT) that we could pop isolated thunderstorms with potential for localized damaging wind gust or even a brief tornado. 

I was thinking the greatest max would be west of here...Hudson into NJ but its possible you may see the max zone be something like northeast CT into northeast MA and southern NH and then a few local maxes elsewhere. 

Seems like the initial slug of heavy rain is trending a bit more progressive in nature and then its more of a daytime heating, convectively driven pop up showers/thunder during the day tomorrow and Thursday. We'll see if that slug can get a widespread 1-3" of rain but anything exceeding that is going to be quite localized and tied into convection. A good soaking rain for the ground