weatherwiz

All the details and such can be ironed out as we get closer but there is a ton to be excited and happy about at this time range. There is going to be no shortage of moisture with this and if we can get the final evolution to be very close to what the general consensus is, it's going to be a big hit over a very large area - obviously there will be mesoscale factors at play which result in some getting "screwed" and some "overperforming" but lets keep this signal for a powerhouse of WAA feeding into the airmass that will be in place, and with the thermal profile and temperature gradient (upward) velocities would be great over the entire area

3 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Alot of my weather friends from Stony brook and Albany are heading down to AMS this weekend and they're all hoping for ice there to at least see some winter precip out of this huge storm. Pretty tragic situation for them if its all rain

Went to the AMS in Austin in 2018 and we got stuck in Austin for an extra two days because our flight got cancelled for wintry precip. The whole town of Austin was virtually shut down...not a single car on the road. They legit got like 2 second of sleet haha. Missed the first two days of the spring semester.

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

They issue winter storm watches when a cold win blows down there

I see it now...I looked further ahead to Sunday with I guess if you want to call it the second wave 

Wow I'm shocked to see Winter Storm Watch as far south as Houston (looks like for ice)...I don't see anything indicating they will get icing that far south. I know that far south it takes like 3 drops of frozen liquid but very odd

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

damn. cant remember the last time i saw the dgz all the way in the basement like that, that is crazy. 

Right  

Probably something you'd see in like central Alaska lol 

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That's a deep DGZ lol

This is wild ha

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso. 

Ahh this makes sense. I hate how products are limited on weathermodels but my initial thinking was whether the 12z Euro was like occluding things a bit quicker the way it was kind of tapering down the QPF towards the end. 

Any mixing issues would probably be more towards the end of the storm...I don't think mixing would be an issue during the bulk 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm. 

I'll take QPF underdone for $1000, please

1-1.5" of QPF in that airmass, especially if you're maximizing lift is going to produce some significant snowfall accumulations. That would certainly be high end...unless we're using something like 2-3 feet to define high end lol

Euro starting to load in on weathermodels  

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So are the euro products and ukmet both delayed today for the 12Z suite?

I've noticed the euro has been a bit late the past several days (at least on weathermodels). Even the 12z GFS bufkit was late on pennstate today 

Verbatim on the GFS I think you would see a major band well up to the Mass Pike. Imagine if we were to pop at 700 low...damn 

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we just stick to posting 10:1 maps if we do post? Koochie maps are ridiculous overall even if this storm is cold.

dendrite should just create an algorithm that blocks the posting of snow maps 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is no direct linear forcing ...

the MJO produces a latent heat flux which disperses down stream, and that is adds to ridging ... troughing ..etc.  That whole process, processes out any direct causality, and leaves it to vestigial ( ie. modulation, not a forcer) influence.  

That's all I'm saying.  And it is true. 

I also did not say that.    I said "I'm not sure I'm following..." in this case the context;  I was just trying to remind people that the MJO does not set tables.

I would also have to think too that processes involved in the evolution of this whole system across the southern states and across the East would end up far outweighing any influence of the MJO. I actually can't wait because this very subject is on the agenda in my advanced forecasting class  

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Nam shoved the snow NoP tonight.

Interesting how the HRRR is a bit aggressive with some snow squalls tomorrow. Not sure we have enough moisture to generate anything but the environment is conducive so if anything were to pop they could be quite hefty with maybe even some lightning 

Just now, ariof said:

KABE must be in a rad pit but checks out. At 1330Z there are still a bunch of negatives showing up nearby.

Crazy...looks like they dropped like 5 degrees around 4-5. Gotta love these nights with clear skies and HP 

Was looking around at some overnight lows last night and saw ABE put up a -9 lol...no way that can be right?

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

should get to your 100 by the end of Monday it seems, might need 3

Let's do it, this is what dreams are made of. It's what we've been waiting for. 

What a fun assessment of overnight models...can't say I'm totally shocked  

LFG 

This is the stuff where you need to tape two yardsticks together. Going to home depot to get a few yard sticks before they sell out. 

Just now, Spanks45 said:

hopefully not congrats Powderfreak....I definitely do not want sleet @ 12 degrees

I don't think we would see any scenario where anyone has to worry about sleet. Any concern would be more related to subsidence 

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the euro gets N stream involved but not as deeply as some of the other solutions. It’s not quite as slow. It’s still enough for a solid SNE hit but it left some on the table. But it’s more than enough to work with at D5-6

Verbatim I think the Euro has the look of what would result in  significant snow band well into SNE

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bottom line is the OP GFS is on an island and that is a good thing right now. Every other piece of medium range guidance has significant accumulating snow into SNE. 

Not speaking for our region necessarily but I've found the GFS to really struggle in these setups. This is going to be like the 5th winter in a row with a major winter storm event across a large part of the deep South...IIRC with these previous years the Euro crushed the GFS, both in lead time and event evolution. Not sure what it means here exactly but when you see how the Euro tries evolving this later in the weekend, I think it bodes more well versus not for us

That is gotta be closing in on one of the most devastating ice storms on record for parts of the mid-Atlantic there into GA where they CAD well. 

Something to be extremely careful with and I've seen a bit of this on X is you have to be extremely careful just using QPF trends as a means of seeking out north/south trends. Ultimately, that is a practice that shouldn't be used in the first place but that holds especially true in this setup. there are many other factors at play with this which will impact QPF...not just total QPF but northward extent of QPF. You can increase the dynamics and forcing aloft WITHOUT having a bump north in the sfc low which can result in both increasing the QPF and blossoming QPF north. 

There is room for a quite a bit of PVA into the region with favorable upper-level dynamics and we may continue to see increasing QPF into the region which is independent of storm track