weatherwiz

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Point was we’re probably staying mixed. If anyone actually radiates in the valleys, like the Xmas trees in Fakersville, it could get ugly. 

ahh gotcha, agreed. 

Just now, dendrite said:

There’s going to be wind Wed night. CAA sub 32s. 

I was wondering how much CAA would factor in. I looked quickly but it seemed like the strongest CAA was moreso during the day than at night? I don't know if it's worth it or not to see how they fare across portions of Wisconsin/Michigan tonight, if anything just a general idea of how they performed in relation to guidance. Looks like the brunt of the airmass though arrives more from Canada. 

Wouldn't be surprised if the high terrain of northern Vermont picks up a few inches of snow tomorrow.

Looks like 12z guidance ticked a few degrees warmer for tomorrow night? At least across a few locations. I guess it is all going to come down to if we maintain enough of a wind to keep things mixed. 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe because winter blew salty balls, but I’ve been enjoying April. We’ve had some nice days and it provides a path to completely forget the past winter.

Agreed, but I can understand this is highly dependent on where you are within the region. We've certainly had some crummy days but we've had a share of very pleasant ones as well. But I get that hasn't been the case for everyone. 

Well it's hard to believe we are one week away from the beginning of severe weather season. Lots happens as we move through the first few weeks of May, plan life blossoms, the Bruins/Celtics make deep payoff pushes, the Red Sox be the Red Sox, and the weather warms and we even sneak in some humid days at times. We also turn our attention to the convective side and monitor for severe chances.

A wonderful gift may be in store as forecast models indicate a strong shortwave trough traversing the Northeast region next Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures out ahead of it and perhaps a surge of higher dewpoints with the advection of rich theta-e air. If this potential continues, a thread can be made down the road.

For now, let's focus on the arrival of May as we make the push towards summer! 

The first few weeks of May have potential to be quite warm, however, we have to watch as there are some indications an omega block pattern could evolve and of course we always have to keep an eye on for backdoor cold fronts. 

11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I find there are two sets of people in New England, those who want to move south for the warmer weather and those who want to move further north for the peace and quiet. While living in a warmer climate had its advantages, you do get sick of 90+ temps and 70+ dews for 6-8 months straight. 

I know it's easy for me to say I wouldn't but maybe I would. I think I would be totally fine with that and then to change it up maybe deal with 3 months of winter like weather with snow.

Someone had mentioned this but looks like we could see some thunderstorm around tomorrow. Too bad dewpoints aren't even another 10F higher given the lapse rates. 

35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Our AN weather in winter hasn’t translated to early spring. It’s like 6 months of mid to late March. 
 

Seeing how easily we freeze at night is a real spectacle on April 22 + after mid January taking an alignment of the stars to see a low below 35.

 

April just reminds us all of how bad our climo is for outdoor activities, generally…

 

But people are paying up to live here…Less snow but not less shit…

 

I’m finding my ticket out. Fentanyl weather is for the birds. Life is short.

It really does suck. Let's face it, the only people who enjoy winter in New England are those invested in weather or those who like to ski or snowboard. Outside of this, winter is generally depressing with the short days and dark by 4:30. It then takes forever to enter a weather pattern where we're consistently warm and not have to worry about whether outdoor activities will be ruined (minus thunderstorm chances). 

With both my parents gone and the ability now to work remotely, I am strongly considering at some point re-locating down South. I still have family up here but my girlfriend's family and parents are mostly in Florida. I can always come up this way to visit. 

I've even considered something like living in Florida from March - May and then September-November and then here from June-August. Just thoughts though...not sure if they will ever become serious enough to act upon but it seems like seasonal depression gets worse every year. 

Frosty the Snowman paid me a visit this morning

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we take! but downburst? not a tornado?

downbursts can be just as damaging and across a larger swath as EF0-EF1 tornadoes.

We're going through April and towards May, things bloom. Some areas start earlier, some later. Happens every year. 

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Severe next Tuesday? 

hopefully a shot for thunderstorms at least.

It really isn't bad out. It's great under the Sun with little breeze. Can't wait for it to be 30-40F warmer though with dewpoints 60-70F higher but soon enough.

The NAM almost seems a little too warm Wednesday night

7 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Could be some rumblers on Wednesday with, looking better.

yeah for sure. nice lapse rates and some weak instability

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Who cares about average. We need some heat. Even last year we had '70s and '80s during April. One measly 70 this year.

I agree...I don't want average. I want to get right into consistent 70's and even 80's. Luckily, I'm located in a spot in the region where there have been some tremendous days with highs into the 70's...they've been teasers but it's a sign of what we are moving into. I hate though how we really have to wait until mid-to-late May and sometimes even June to get consistently nice weather with very warm temperatures. 

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Good first period. Let's go Bruins!

Nail bitter towards the end but can't complain thus far.

More times than not over the next few weeks we will be above-average, and at some points well above-average (but only a few days at a time). Any periods we get which are closer to average or maybe a bit below are going to be if we're wedged as a frontal system approaches or post-fropa so those periods will be brief.

Today seems to be going as advertised to me 

12 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Has to be close to record territory for late April verbatim .. -12 to -16 at 850 is absurd so late. 

I'm sure it modifies but still that was an impressive run. 

Here is GYX for that date...verbatim would fall a bit short of the record it looks like.

We'll see what happens with that. I'd hold a bit of skepticism right now. It's not a typical frontal system dropping south and east across the northern Plains or upper-Midwest. 

But this is where the feature in question is currently located. 

Becomes pretty vigorous and then a piece breaks off and is ejected across our northern areas.

If this doesn't work out it will be much warmer than advertised.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It'll go 7 games because of the two 0Ts the B's lost to make that happen     ...after giving up the tying goal with 30 sec left in regulation, too -

I expect any B's playoff series to go 7 games   

they seem to love them.

12 hours ago, kdxken said:

Torch!

The only leaf blow out that matters these next few weeks are the ones from Toronto getting blown out of the playoffs.

It's freezing. Had to wear thermal socks today. booooooo

Time to start looking at CAPE maps not snow maps lol