weatherwiz

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yes. Absolutely.   Should we call that fake?  Of course not.  This is the point. 

Yup.

The cold which materializes within the Arctic/Polar regions isn't coming from Santa or his elves, its a byproduct of prolonged radiational cooling. 

Radiational cooling is a very real meteorological phenomenon. Besides the very low sun angle at high latitudes to virtually no sun (above the horizon) near the polar latitudes, radiational cooling is a big player in cold temperatures. In fact, its ultimately radiational cooling which leads to the establishment of the cool season Arctic/Polar airmasses. Nothing fake about it 

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely.  Such a ridiculous term.  Any sensible weather isn’t fake whatsoever.  
 

Maybe we should tell the ones that get a tornado ripping through their neighborhood, that it’s fake cuz it was isolated, and everybody didn’t get it…and cuz after it hits, it clears up, so it’s fake? 

This is like people who meh 8" snow events because "they've gotten them before". Did the people of Moore, OK meh an EF-5 ripping through because "they've gotten one before". 

45 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

@weatherwiz and @ineedsnow all excited?  DY4-8 SPC outlook will be update 2x a day soon!

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf
 

Nice!!

Reading and waiting for SPC outlooks on big event days is like waiting for Christmas morning on Christmas Eve to open presents 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

May have to be careful here…not sure. Once METAR took over in 1996 everything went to <= 12kft ceilometer observations. A few of the larger airports did augment higher levels in, but I’m not sure how consistent that has been. BOS has had a 25kft ceilometer for awhile now, and does consistently augment, but I’m not sure how the high level coverage compares to the pre ASOS days with manned SA obs. At least Fish was smart enough to use BOS.

@vortex95 would probably know more on that

Here’s CON. A big “drop off” in cloudiness in 1996 once the ceiling reporting stopped at 12kft.

It’s pretty stupid seeing obs reported as CLR/Fair when it’s totally overcast at 15kft.

Is this the reason why MOS only reports sky cover forecast <12kft? 

That's one thing I like about NBM...I believe it accounts for higher clouds and will do much better at the sky cover forecasts. Though I think the NBM can sometimes be a bit too aggressive

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we had some blocking or maybe Bering Sea ridging then it’s possible we could see impacts, but we will be fighting the Pacific influence.

It is going to take a LOT to overcome the Pacific influences. The other thing too is it looks like the brunt of strongest influences from what may transpire with the PV will be more over Europe than our side of the Globe 

Really all this strat PV hoopla because of some 10mb charts I mean come on lol

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the pattern on the EPS and AI EPS is a little interesting regarding storminess later in the 11-15 day. 

Yup...looking like we may see things get a bit active...could be some good news for some of the ski areas within the West too. Noticed too systems will be flying across the country 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not trying to be a Debbie, but it has to be able to couple to the troposphere. I have seen nobody talk about that, only about how there’s a split. If you ask me, it’s a bit misleading… And then I saw one person talk about it could lead to a very sharp cold snap later in November. But that can happen regardless.

Polar Vortex splits are meant to adjust the large scale pattern for awhile, not two days. All the stuff I’ve seen just seems very misleading to me and more of click bait type stuff. 
 

The irony is that the pattern that helps cause the split will lead to a lot of CONUS warmth. Judah actually agreed on that. This split would also have to fight off Nino forcing which may make it harder to couple to the troposphere. 
 

We could see a split have more meaningful impact as @40/70 Benchmark had alluded to come mid winter and beyond. But right now, many energy mets that I know are not sold on this being much or anything. 

Here is the forecast from the GFS of what the split looks like. I did lie a bit, there is some displacement with one part of the split displacing more into Alaska. Can't post a gif (could make one but don't feel like it) but like you said, its rather brief. 

I would have to hope people are looking more at just "charts" and what the tendency of the stratospheric AO is forecast to do. I mean its still pretty early in the season so the PV isn't particularly strong to begin with. Also, if you look at the structure and evolution of the structure (of course this is based off model forecasts) it does "weaken" and even looks to split but it does not become displaced really. Will this have some impact on the hemispheric pattern...sure, perhaps but enough of an impact or an influence that it needs headlines...don't think so

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The PV stuff is click bait.

It's so ridiculous. People are always trying to find something to latch on to. 

5 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Was tonight supposed to be rad cooling or CAA? BDL still 53, doesnt seem like they'll come close to the forecast low of 41. 

Was outside with the dog around 8:00 or so last night and was surprised how mild it still was. 

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Hailstone record CT 7/4/26   @weatherwiz PT?
https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2110020388004462779

One thing though, it is not a complete even radius circular stone, like many giant hailstones are.  Looks more a fused conglomerate rather than a mass that goes up and down in the supercooled layer getting more even layer coating each time.

SCEC PDF report attached.

It also noted the baseball hail event from 6/20/1995 from supercells dropping from the due N.  Radar attached.  Was @weatherwiz aware of this event?  I bet @CoastalWx was not!  The anvil canopy spread NE from this storm w/ CBMAM over BOS area.
 

20261013-Connecticut-Hailstone.pdf 6.89 MB · 1 download

I don't recall memories of this day (but I do remember 5/29/95 and 7/15/95) but being made aware of this some years later, pretty impressive storm which formed along a backdoor front. 

Yesterday was phenomenal. With the two trees in the front yard having lost all their leaves (well one still has a little bit left but very little) I was able to clean out the gutters and get the grill all cleaned. Started off chilly working but warmed up quickly and was even able to take off the light long sleeve...could have easily switched from jeans to shorts too. Feels great getting a lot of (or mostly all of) the outside work done and doing so in very pleasant weather. Hope we can continue these types of weekends for a bit longer...can just sit outside and enjoy the day with little work left to do 

I can dig 30s at night and then 50s and 60s during the day...preferably 60s but keep this going through November. 

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Now will they self learn from this? If so…that necessarily isn’t a bad thing that they failed. 

ehh I don't think that's how that really works. The overall scheme is much more complex than just "learning" from mistakes and misses. 

While its become apparent AI models are going to provide some tremendous value, at least in medium range forecasting, if we truly want to make a substantial leap with modeling we need two things

1) Superior computing (such as quantum computing) that is able to perform complex calculations at a much faster rate. Another key aspect about quantum computing is they will be able to handle and perform even calculations that are way more complex than what supercomputers can currently handle 

2) The ability to initialize current state better (the Euro has been worlds ahead in this) and part of this goes into quantum computing and ability to handle and perform challenging complex equations. 

3) Another challenge is putting knowledge, or our understanding on physical processes into mathematical terms to be computed. There is always going to be some sort of disconnect because we don't have a true 100% knowledge of every process which occurs during storm evolution (example: why some supercells with hooks produce tornadoes while others don't) so we can't 100% model that accurately. And models just can't learn that without us being able to feed it that information first. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly don’t even look at the GFS anymore.

I kind of have too...or at least don't put much stock into it.

What I've been finding interesting too is over the past few years (I'll even say several) it seems the big deviations don't even occur from incremental errors or differences that leads to the large differences...its like a switch flips at D3-4 and the divergence in guidance is through the roof. There will be subtle differences in key features through D3 and then all of a sudden D4...its like WTF just happened 

I have a feeling this is going to be an absolutely horrific late spring/winter for forecasting. Just look at the differences between the Euro/GFS beginning at D3-4 lol...totally not even in the same ballpark with many of the upper-level features. Check out how the GFS/Euro handle that system digging into the PAC NW lol...its laughable 

these climate model seasonal snow maps are a joke. what a waste of space and resources 

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hard to trust any model when they are struggling so much..  just look at 97W 

That is just a product of the upper air pattern and what will ultimately steer it and probably due to the fact that the system is still quite unorganized  

Interesting difference between the EPS mean and control moving into the first week of November. Control develops a stout +PNA/-AO combo but its not a typical pattern evolution of what you'd expect yielding that...also you would at least expect to get a much colder airmass from northern Canada or Arctic but that is not the case. Raging jet too...any systems moving onto the west coast (or into the southwest I should say) or going to fly across the country  

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Was this wind forecast? Worse than anything this month

yes

Two trees we have in the front yard had some amazing vibrant colors...mostly yellows. Both the trees though have pretty much dropped all their leaves. One I think has fully dropped and the other like 90% dropped. I don't really know tree species but its interesting because these are legit the only two trees in the neighborhood which have not only fully changed but dropped leaves. 

Gotta say...the bots have been quite impressive with pattern recognition and just an overall better idea of the general idea of the larger-scale storm details (development, track). Certainly enough I think to give a big boost in confidence for medium-range forecasting. Not entirely sure about the inside 48-hours or storm specific details but they've been a big boost in the medium-range for sure.