weatherwiz

CAMs not showing much but I'm really curious to see if we can pop anything this afternoon. CAMs are more bullish to our northwest (which makes sense) but we're going to break out into some degree of sun (at least up to and WOR) and should destabilize rapidly.

Mid-levels become rather dry, however, I don't think that would be a negative today because the llvls are quite moist so air rising rapidly would negate that a bit and this would also help strengthen downdraft potential. LCL and LFC are also relatively close throughout the day so it isn't going to take much to get parcels to really accelerate. Coverage isn't going to be widespread but any means but I think we'll see at least a few decent cells with 1-1.25" hail and strong wind gusts. 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was all day hills EOR. Up to .09

Blows. At my great niece birthday party. Luckily much of then day was dry. Had a brief sprinkle around 2:45-3 but had been dry. Despite this being super light everything is wet. At least it’s not enough to stop the fire from going 

Been getting an annoying mist in Enfield for the past hour…maybe even a bit longer 

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

It's rhe night time highs that are increasing . So a 78° overnight low will be  -2 for the day. 

yup...but sooner or later we'll ramp up the summer heat into this region 

By 2036 a 90F day on June 30 will be a -2 for a daytime high at BDL

Will be some nasty storms around Sunday if we can destabilize enough 

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nothing wrong with extrapolating.

may as well just extrapolate to next season 

I feel like September is going to be quite the interesting month. There is still potential for us to get another surge of upper 80's and 90's for many but some signals too we could start seeing some stronger troughs sliding across Canada and northern tier of the country. That should yield some interesting weather chances

maybe we net some small hailers Sunday

13 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It can be confusing to the public and emergency management.  They have procedures in place when a SVR box is issued, and then 25 min later a TOR?  Just not very efficient.  Some may ask, does it mean anything to have "both" at the same time?  This is valid question for the non-met!  And what about watch box stats for a given area?

Just have two discrete boxes issued  at the same time.  N area TOR and S area SVR in this case.

I'd be curious if something similar has happened before...I would think it has (just not very common). This would be a good question for @OceanStWx

I actually kind of like this and this falls in line with the new modifications to the SPC outlooks. As we become more knowledgeable in the area of severe weather and with advancements in technology and modelling I think it's a great idea to be able to try and narrow down areas of "greatest" potential within an overall larger area.

I agree it can be confusing to emergency management and the public but this is where educating and communicating to emergency management and the public becomes critical. 

I would be willing to bet that was planned that way. Goal was to get the SVR out first and then hone down on an area where combination of ingredients overlapped most for a tornado risk. Probably why the time delay between the two...discussion on the SVR with local offices and then discussion on the area for the tornado watch 

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

The "barrier" is in place.
 

Yup...you're not getting anything going in that. When those two waves the NHC flagged last week crapped the bed that was a tell tale sign of where things stand. Environmental conditions aren't going to be getting any better either. 

Now folks may look at that and say we gotta watch the Gulf and northern Caribbean for home brew, but it should be noted the shear is only weak there because of the large scale ridging. Once that breaks down and we get troughs and fronts digging into the southern states that will change. 

nice looking supercell with a TDS down in Maryland 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday

These are always tough because it depends on exactly where the front stalls and where the low pressure tracks. 

I've felt the past few days the GFS may be a bit too aggressive with Saturday...at least with northwest extent of the heavier rain. We'll probably see some showers around though given weak lift

Looks like Hawaii dodging a bullet with Two-C

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Shit weather incoming. Damn it. Hopefully doesn't rain all weekend.

Very tough forecast. Definitely better potential for more in the way of consistent rain eastern CT and points east, particularly on Saturday. Sunday I don't think is a rain all day but there could be some room for some strong storms and downpours in the afternoon if we destabilize enough. Saturday could be like EOR type ordeal and Sunday WOR

The wind shear across the MDR is pretty nuts and probably isn't decreasing anytime soon. Would probably need to see some wave survive to around Cuba or Puerto Rico before it even has the chance of becoming organized. 

Really starting to think alot of these GFS "canes" are a mere factor of a heavy climatological skew so the GFS just wants to pump out hurricanes. 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

S coast south and west . Lots of mid level dry air inland 

The dry air is relative to the track and placement of the front. The overall heaviest of rain and thunderstorms is south (NJ/LI)...maybe CT coast but I think the llvl warm front is north enough to where we get precip to build inland. 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM 3k which is dry vs RRFS which has a squalline . I wonder which one wins 

I do think we see a solid precip shield of showers moving through later tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Didn’t SSTs down there hit 100 a couple years ago?

yeah like a 6" depth

That is quite the model battle tomorrow 

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dews near 70° are COC?

Absolutely 

57 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

How big is your ac unit  if that’s massive?

Its medium-sized I'd say...maybe even just a bit below 

What in the hell kind of spider is this? It’s freaking massive. Too scared to get any closer for a pic. I’m afraid he will lunge at me. He was watching my every move as is