weatherwiz
-
Posts
80,794 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by weatherwiz
-
-
42 minutes ago, dendrite said:
Extra log on the fire this week at BDL
Another tally mark under the "AWT" category
-
Great, now there is a whole lot of media hype about the "cold blob" of water south of Greenland. Isn't that this the manifestation of the AMO heading towards the negative phase?
-
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:
Hold me
I am going to guess the NAM is a bit overdone with the mid-level lapse rates which could put a bit of a damper on the potential in terms of higher-end potential stuff, but that would still probably be a tornado outbreak across PA/southern NY into NJ.
-
Heavy violence across PA on Thursday via the 6z NAM
-
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:
Interesting storms today. The shear is there, instability lagging as usual. Meh from BTV, but big beam blockage.
I've been keeping an eye on Canadian radars for our northern storms, and this is something...
That sure looks like a TDS in the Northeast Kingdom.
Looks like some training supercells in Maine
-
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:
I'd take the high res depictions in a heartbeat. 3k and HRRR looked juicy overnight.
We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?
-
I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.
-
6 hours ago, vortex95 said:
Yes. I see that.
Noted on the 00z ECMWF, very strong WAA occurs on Thu during the day with the passage of the WF (that's classic for a big tor day). Nice nose of above avg 850 temp 00z 6/19 (attached). Winds at 500 as high at 95 kt (attached) and 300 winds as high as 115 kt? Tell me something big can *not* happen w/ these kind of wind anomalies and such a strong sfc low in srn Quebec in June! Derecho instead of Scott spinners here perhaps. Looks better to SW of the region.
Since set ups like this are rare here, we don't know the full range of possibilities. We may be surprised.
It's certainly intriguing for sure, especially given the shear forecast. If we aren't going to get steep mlvl lapse rates then hopefully we can get dewpoints into the lower 70's and at least increase potential to push MLCAPE values ~2000 J. Too early to really worry about CAPE potential but if we can muster 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE in this environment, there would be some nasty storms for sure.
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Seems like NYC south and CNE/ NNE. Just scattered at best SNE
best chance of severe yes.
But we do have great dynamics and potent shortwave moving through with strong height falls so I think precip. will be expansive. What kills our severe potential with this is the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and/or stronger cooling aloft. Having those present would yield stronger instability, despite the loss of heating. We will destabilize though after sunset just from increasing dewpoints though but don't think it will be enough to maintain svr potential outside of super localized
-
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Looks like 7/10 split for SNE overall
I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low.
-
I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow.
-
It’s hard to get overly excited for organized severe weather or a higher end severe potential without any signals of an EML. But if we can get dews into the 70’s with strong shear and height falls we can get swaths of wind damage
-
2
-
-
The timing Sunday looks awfully late...not good. Was a bit shocked to see the risk for for east with the D3. Was kind of hoping maybe we would start seeing some faster timing but 0z NAM is even slower
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, kdxken said:
Give you props for trying. Sorry it was disappointing.
Actually it worked out well! Wasn't really expecting anything wild or out of the ordinary. Part of the fun on this is picking a location and then adjusting as needed. Because of the road network here and limited visibility with trees and hills, our preference is to always be at a spot well ahead of the storms, particularly for shelf cloud views.
I tend to prefer not chasing the storms as they're ongoing (unless its being out ahead of them) because I don't want to risk encountering a flooded road or something like a tree falling if driving along roads which are heavily forested.
I'd say today worked out as could have expected. Big winds or even hail is just an added bonus.
-
3
-
-
Ended up going north and catching 84 in Newtown and following storms along 84 into Waterbury. Wind wasn’t much but some lightning, a few loud booms, and very heavy rain.
-
1
-
-
Debating on going more north to Danbury and parking at the mall but thinking we just stay put. It’s about 25-30 minute drive and don’t want to fight traffic
-
Just now, Torch Tiger said:
Friday blows
Any day that ends with Y blows. Add in the fact people are absolute lunatics make it worse
-
1
-
-
Finally made it. Traffic sucks. Hate driving anymore
-
1
-
-
Off to Wilton, CT.
Decided on a bit farther south and can adjust north or a bit south if need be...traffic dependent.
-
3
-
-
9 minutes ago, FXWX said:
Monitoring and handling several outdoor high school graduation ceremonies across western CT today; and am wary of my districts near the NY/CT border region... Always a tough call since folks want to know hours in advance whether or not a cell is going to go directly over the event area! Lol. Yesterday we had to send and keep folks in their cards for an extended period until cells cleared the area and lightning was at least 10 miles away... Nerve-wracking as hell... I will monitor your page for any local obs of interest out in that area today... I thought the RRFS did the best job yesterday and is the most bullish again today... not my favorite model, but it appeared to have the best handle on things late yesterday.
The RRFS did well yesterday for sure. In fact, some of the extended HRRR runs from the previous day hinted at that evolution and progression too. I would not be surprised if some of the guidance is underdone today as well. I think what helped yesterday was the cells which fired developed a strong cold pool and that helped the cluster materialize. I don't believe CAMs are great at picking up on that and I would not be surprised if we saw similar today. Also it looks like there are some residual outflow boundaries from yesterday as well.
-
1
-
-
maybe even Ridgefiled, CT might not be a bad go to area today
-
Might just go to Brewster, NY today and hope to get lucky. Probably just go around 1 and wait there and then hopefully can make minor adjustments if needed but giving its a Friday and storm timing...traffic won't be fun
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, vortex95 said:Wxwiiz mad he missed this??? CoastalWx proby just MEH! LOL.
Look what happened Thu just over the border in Pauling NY. Hail up to 2" in diameter.Serious wind damage right over the CT border in Quaker Hill NY.NW flow delivers! The LTG plot reminded me of July 10, 1989 a little.Also, June 20, 1995. See here:
We were hoping that cell would maintain as it went southeast but it weakened some.
-
1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:
Looks like many more chances the next 10 days or so!
thinking of around the Albany area tomorrow then we'll see what happens Sunday. Back to work Monday though and started summer classes this week which have me revising my life choices so not sure how much time for chasing I'll have rest of summer unless its super local
-
1
-
Junorch obs and discussion 2026
in New England
Posted
For sure the upcoming weekend will be on the cool side behind the system but the week should be right around average and Thursday quite a bit above. For BDL, I wouldn't be shocked if they hit 80-81 on Wednesday