weatherwiz

I’m really hoping this pans out and I can get a foot. My girlfriend (who I met in 2021) moved up from Florida late 2018 or so and this would be the biggest storm she’s seen. Thought it would happen last year but Connecticut got crushed. I’m also hoping to see what the dogs reaction would be (if he cares). He’s coming the end and it would be cool to see if he would like it and go around in it with his doggy wheel chair 

9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Well…. I still like my 10-12” call. If you want more than you need to cross the 1st 2 off the list. 

We can’t get greedy! 

SWFE, NWFE, Miller A, Miller B, clipper, redeveloper…who cares. It’s going to snow and it’s going to snow a lot

You couldn’t ask for a better setup for the region given the last several years. Everyone wins in this setup. There really isn’t a screw zone. It’s a region wide dumping 

6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I wonder what CoastalWx  thinks of it!

meh we'll see how these cloud physics work out for me

1 minute ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Springfield MA already canceled schools for both Monday and Tuesday. I can see Monday but Tuesday seems  agresive.  

With the way they plow here I wouldn't be shocked if they end up closed through Thursday. Probably won't see a plow on my street until Tuesday. 

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

This is a good map.  Sums it up.  Even if there's sleet along the southern areas, it mostly falls after the bulk of the heavy stuff falls.  I think the NAM turns down the volume in subsequent runs...

Yeah I don't see sleet reducing totals anywhere. The bulk of everything already occurs. Its not a big deal

Wasn't entirely sure I'd get to do into enough detail to make a forecast but alas I did. 

I originally had the whole area of 12-18" but wanted to highlight that potential for some higher amounts in northeast Mass...I think that signal could be very real. Didn't want to go crazy and throw out 18-24" contour so just bumped 12-18 to 10-15 to add a 15-20 area. This is what winter is all about!!!!!!  LFG!!!!!!! Massive snowstorm and a Pats trip to the super bowl incoming. Someone pinch me I'm dreaming 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2026/01/significant-snowstorm-to-impact.html

Its the 84 hr NAM gut that is a lot of DPVA throughout the day Monday (seem better animated of course)

And we're in the left exit region of this monster jet streak

The coastal front is going to be insane. I think we know where the jackpot zone is going to be

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It’s being a little generous with the dgz there. -10C is out of the max dendritic zone.

yeah not sure if its a cod thing but its a little funky in that regard. but thats the type of lift we want to see!

Oh here we go...northeast CT right along the RI border. This is it

Going to be a hellacious fronto band moving through 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@weatherwiz do any of these work for you? I forgot this guy’s page even existed

https://www.wxcaster.com/isentropic.htm

Nothing loads for me either  

I forgot all about his page...his site used to be my go to for soundings back in the day.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You’re ripping like 0.60”+/6hr at times. Even with clearing there’s going to be compaction on the bottom of those cores as the weight increases on the lower crystals. A little wind will break the crystals down a bit too. So I just find it hard to see 12-15” of fluff in 6hrs during the meat of it.

If you were clearing hourly then yeah…you’re probably getting 20-25:1 hourlies at times. 

Yup...great point. 

I'll say too...looking around at various locations, I would like to start seeing some stronger omega values popping up on some of these soundings. It's easy to get carried away with ratios given everything but we aren't going to automatically snag very high ratios because the DGZ is deep and its cold. There are really a ton of details to go over and analyze on this

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

BTV has been hinting at high end ratios up here. 

Ratios will def be great up that way...the average should easily be in the 15:1 to 20:1 range up there and probably upwards of 22:1 to 23:1 during peak intensity.

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

To me, the difference between 10-15 and 15-20 is the Monday snow.  It seems like Sunday and Sunday night, particularly 4pm-midnight are a slam dunk very heavy snow period 

If that Monday snow verifies I think someone in northeast MA may pull >24" 

I would not forecast that now but I think there could certainly be some reports. This storm is going to be full of surprises...I can't get over the whole DGZ thing looking around on bufkit lol. I think dendrite mentioned this about the snow ratios and how its difficult to maintain upward of 20:1 - 25:1 but where and when the best lift is occurring...there is going to be a swath verifying those ratios at least for a brief period of time

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Just use a tape measure 

I like the good ole fashion wood 

I could picture the NAM ending up with one of those runs that produces 1.50-1.75"+ of QPF. I really need to get to Lowes and get those yard sticks. Might have time to go Saturday, hopefully they'll have some in stock 

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like 5 posts the last two hours. Storm fatigue setting in lol

Nothing to whine about so people unsure of what to do

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The DGZ is essentially from the sfc to 700mb on Monday so anything low level is gonna be quite efficient. The question is just how much lift can we generate in the low levels. Stronger onshore flow will certainly help as you push that marine boundary layer into the arctic dome…that alone will generate decent low level lift. But that’s why getting a decent secondary staying to our south as long as possible is key. Once it reaches our latitude, winds in the BL will be less and less onshore.  

This is why I can't wait until we get into meso model range. The mesos I think should handle this very well and this is when we can really talk about the potential for >15" totals and where those would be most likely to occur.  

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I felt it was a bit lazy.  CoastawxJr's map had more thought that went into it between giving kids swirlies

Nothing good comes out of doing that. You can raise awareness and prepare the public without having to go off the walls

If we're going to be looking at something along the line of 15-20-24" somewhere that idea won't become more serious until we're inside of 24-36 hours and can start diagnosing banding more accurately and getting a solidified feel on snowfall ratios, lift, etc. 

This is why that map of 1-2' was absolutely stupid this far out. 

That would be a huge hit on the GFS, especially with the 850 low developing just south of the region. I like how the sfc low and 850 low go virtually west-to-east to our south with a bit of elongation to the low...that should help (I would think) result in a much wider than usual fronto band (combined with other factors of course) than usual. This inflow oof

For old times sake can we have the storm mode in bright red at the top of the page? maybe a radio show too