weatherwiz

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Half the storm is starting out from a cluster of supercells lol. Good luck modeling that.

yeah right  

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

 

Well, That's the thing, Not sure how well its handling it but that does reek havoc on the models.

The NAM has trended significantly robust with the convective tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see what impact that has, does it rob moisture? Does it influence main low/secondary development? This is going to be a heck of an evolution to watch

30 days  

Crazy how we're within a month until severe weather season and in 2 weeks the end of the GFS run will peak into May.

IT'S COMING!!!

The increase in severe weather potential and quite a bit northward shift in severe weather potential for tomorrow is wrecking some havoc. This could be a sign for a stronger primary into western Michigan at least as that would favor the warm front lifting this far north to warrant these severe probs. It will be fun later today, tonight, and tomorrow to watch in real time how the convection is influencing the upper levels

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian bombs the primary over southern Lake Michigan. SNE will have a shot if that happens. 

I hardly ever look at the Canadian but this would be pretty sweet if that verified. That would be a nuking for some

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a shame that ULL is such a beast in the MW.

 

The other thing is convection. There is some severe wx progged. Not sure how the globals will handle that..but it's part of the reason why the NAM warm tongue may not be so far fetched...even if off a little.

There is a big of divergence between the models with this convection in the Ohio Valley. 

The NAM/GFS shifted north with where the bulk of the convection occurs while the HRRR is further south. 

This is why I think its important to closely assess where the warm front ends up today because that's where the convection will be focused. South of the warm front there may be capping issues. The NAM warm tongue would make sense if the convective solution pans out as advertised. 

There isn't a whole lot going on right now which could help with a farther north warm front into the Ohio Valley. 

Thinking the GFS is going to be damn close to a NAM like evolution with strong primary into the Great Lakes and rapid H7 development/strengthening well west. 

I would think we will have an idea of how valid the NAM will be later this afternoon or early this evening. 

The NAM essentially looks like WAA precip Tuesday night/Wednesday and then precipitation quickly shuts off due to occlusion and then dry slot as H7 develops rapidly to our west. 

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM would argue thunder sleet. That's funny.

The NAM is quite unstable in the mid-levels. Some of the most robust elevated instability I recall seeing around these parts with wintry precipitation potential. Reminds me a bit of some of those setups you see in the Great Plains where they get thunder sleet/freezing rain.

I still say we won't have a better idea of what to expect until we see how this system evolves moving through the Great Lakes today/tomorrow. How far north the warm front really gets will significantly influence convective evolution and the entire system in general. 

2 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Agree, call me a weenie but it's still a long ways away, hence me not throwing in the towel yet

It's just all about expectations. Of course though since everyone loves to just stroll right to the snowfall maps expectations are already lost but if you live in northern New England and/or have elevation well, climatologically you stand the best chance for some significant snowfall accumulations. 

We know this is going to be an anomalous evolution for this time of year and with that we should anticipate or expect there will be at least some sort of anomalous outcome. But what does that mean, well that's what we figure out over these next few days. I mean me in Springfield, it would be foolish to expect or anticipate 12'' of snow, but is it plausible to think I have a shot for say 2-4'' or 4-6'', absolutely and that's the anomalous aspect. 

I think mostly everyone will see frozen precipitation (except maybe immediate coastal Plain) but it's just a matter of how impactful.

I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. 

5 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

My wallet wants overtime, my sanity wants TORCH

As a Bruins fan I don't want to hear the word overtime

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m going eastern facing side of the Whites for the jackpot right now.

ahhh good call. I wanted to mention the Whites in there as well. 

I am just in awe of the whole 500mb evolution. But while the 500 evolution is a beauty, how the surface evolves is going to be a giant PITA to figure out I think. With how things continue to look though I would not be surprised to see the highest totals in the 3 foot range and this would be achieved in favored upslope areas along the Greens and Berks.

11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Not shocked at all if this happens given the way the season has gone; we are about to turn the table spring warmth and big dog like this would usher in the change the pattern change.

yeah they may certainly help propel us to some more consistent warmth...at least for a time anyways. I'm sure we're still going to have to deal with some crappy periods.

That is a pretty damn near textbook evolution of the 500mb pattern and how H5 closes off and where it tracks. 

What may bode well too is there isn't a cluster cluck of shortwave mess. There's plenty of shortwave energy around but only a few distinct major pieces. 

If you're outside of the far interior and don't have elevation, dynamics are going to be critical but there is plenty of cold air available not far away. 

The whole evolution of this is an absolute beauty. With how anomalous the pattern and evolution is you can't just run to climo. Certainly the favor is going to be elevation/interior but it is cold in the low-levels. We'll see how this continues to evolve over the next few days. Lots of convection expected too within the warm sector so this may have a significant influence on exactly how the key features evolve. 

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Would have been great 4-6 weeks ago, This is useless having snow in April, Trying to go fishing, Not going to place tire chains on the boat trailer.

I'm with you. I don't want to be tracking snow right now. I just want warmer/nicer weather. That tease we had earlier in the month propelled my brain right to warmer weather. If we didn't have that I may be more inclined to hope this could turn into a crushing...even for me  

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who cares

Snow is snow 

Because in January or February this is a crushing for everyone...even down to the coast. 

Early April...probably going to be interior/elevation 

Why can't we get this in January or February????

Just looked at the Euro for second half of next week and holy shit  

I mean that is a hell of a 500 anomaly going on. 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m just referring to how people generally view the seasons. No one I know has ever recalled a summer that was below normal because heat is heat generally speaking. Whether it is 85 or 95, people are out doing summer things and will recall the summer based on rain/no rain rather than AN or BN temps. However, winter is completely different. People I know recall winters as “bad” (cold and snowy) or “not bad” (warm and minimal snow). Winter temps stick out much than summer temps because a 10F difference in the summer is barely noticeable compared to a 10F difference in winter which coincides with precip type.
 

Both of my closest neighbors we share a private road know the past two winters are warm and snowless which is obvious because we all chip in for plowing. We’ve barely needed the service. But if you ask them how have the past two summers been, they’ll shrug and say hot.  

I see what you're saying, this makes sense. Can't disagree with how this is laid out.

That is the beauty of science. Science doesn't care about anyone's feelings or opinions. Science doesn't care if something upsets you, science doesn't care if something bother's you, and science doesn't care about your backyard.