weatherwiz

Some lightning strikes northwest of Pittsfield!

Nice model difference tomorrow within the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region  

Some pretty drastic differences at H5 across the country tomorrow. 

In another 5 days the 384 HR GFS will be into May!

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

wish we could get that. looks like a messy/complex evolution wrt MCS/boundaries around

...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle...
   Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of
   LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich
   low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000
   J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and
   deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging
   bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH
   gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado
   risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any
   existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging
   winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly
   on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries.
   Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also
   support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection
   precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries.

Thinking wind damage may be the greatest overall threat. Greatest tornado threat probably on the southern flank but it may turn out the southern flank is right along the coast or just off. We'll see how far north the warm front/greatest moisture return can get which should influence northern periphery of the bow/mcs

Hopefully we can get something like this in the next few months

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can I get a hell yeah

how about this instead  

I know its like 3 or 4 weeks too early but I can't help but toggle through the CAPE maps through 384 hours. Its depressing seeing some big CAPE values within the Ohio Valley and sneak into portions of Pennsylvania and then just get poo pooed away but our time is coming. 

2 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Completely cleared out in Dallas for totality. The cu field went poof and miraculously had no cirrus! 
 

Just an absolutely exceptional experience.

Are you sticking around Dallas for the severe wx?

I actually may need to make some hot chocolate now. I was only wearing a short-sleeved shirt and a very light jacket. I'm cold now.

Taken at 3:30 PM EDT from Springfield 

Had to lay in my back to be able to make this work 

All this satellite watching and hoping for full Sun has me geared up for severe wx season. 

Just went outside with glasses and can see it! 

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully you guys can rebuild. 

Thankfully not the same folks that are in charge of rebuilding the Mets

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll stick with what USGS goes with. They will revise as they get more data too.

5 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

 

USGS already downgraded from 4.8 to 4.7.  I would believe them over whatever bullshit "RAWSALERTS" is.

Agreed, only source that matters is USGS.

The magnitude estimates are all over the palce right now...

I didn't feel anything in Springfield but my I just told my girlfriend about it and she felt something. I was in the zone working though. 

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That is interesting. We had a 4-contour Greenland block, but nothing rivaling the strength of even what we have seen the past few Winters.  There seems be a major disconnect between CPC's NAO numbers and what is occurring in the NAO area, measured by sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azore islands. This Winter came up with something like a +0.7 NAO for DJFM, but if you look at sea-level pressure and 500mb, it should have been measured negative. 

Either way, hopefully this is some sign that we will see more persistent -NAO's in coming cold seasons, as we had seen 41/46 +NAO Winter months, going back to 2013. and 16/16 of the NAO's >1.11 in the monthly's during that time were all positive. 16-0 since 2013. I think the larger reasoning is issues with CPC's measurements, but maybe the overall signal is turning around..

Isn't the Hurrell NAO method a bit better overall than the CPC's method? 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Dont forget all the hurricanes we're going to get too...

Yup...those will take care of the damaged buildings 

Well with how wet the ground is and how damaged the trees are, we're primed to level forests in 6-7 weeks when we hopefully get a derecho to blow through. They better prepare the power grid now. 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where are all the damage pictures in Maine and NH? All these massive outages and no pics?  Let’s get em up please 

can't upload without power or internet 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a persistent fronto band by Gray. Lava Rock hopefully flattened.

For sure. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Cobb is useful but again can be screwy if UVVs are sketchy. This storm isn't over up north by a long shot. Serious invt

Agreed. That's why these snow maps and depth maps whatever need to be used with extreme caution. Sure they may "nail" some areas and maybe capture cutoffs and gradients but on the whole picture...they suck. Mid-level structure, evolution, lift, etc are all extremely critical at the end of the day and the snow maps don't factor that stuff in. 

I am curious what PWM is at right now. I know yesterday both NAM/GFS bufkit were yielding over a foot of snow at PWM using cobb. Actually even using max temp in profile wasn't too far off from cobb. 

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did you check any of the cobb data yesterday? 

Do any vendors use cobb technique for displaying snowfall accumulations or is 10:1 and Kuchera the methods of choice? 

what a f'ing disaster driving down 91 this morning. Thankfully I use maps so I was aware of the accidents and did detours but people are freaking ridiculous. Driving 80 mph and swerving in/out of lanes.