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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by weatherwiz

  1. Just now, Patrick-02540 said:

    It jumps 120 miles due east right towards the convection.  

    It can't be discounted, I mean we've been screwed before in these scenarios. I wonder if there is literature out there on these situations. Someone's had to do extensive research into this. Would be great to have an understanding of when this situation does occur versus when it doesn't. Maybe there is no clear cut signal, models still really struggle with resolving convection, especially in these highly dynamic situations. 

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  2. I wish weathermodels had more products available but you can clearly see where the problem resides (where it places the low). It definitely seems to be favoring more towards the convection. Its an elongated low which is in the process of cyclogenesis. Additional upper-level tools would provide some additional guidance as to where you could expect to see the sfc low. Regardless, where it tracks the low from this, based on the H7 low track heavy banding would be much farther nw than the Euro has.

    image.png.4b4b66b82eb188ed693b457e555b5f4d.png

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  3. 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

    Yeah worried a bit here in SW CT. Lost power and tree fell on my house in March 2018 from that heavy snow event. 

    The wind will be a factor as well. Not necessarily from a strength standpoint, but winds will be enough to sway branches/limbs, which, with added weight probably makes them more susceptible to coming down.

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  4. 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

    absolutely bonkers on every station i pulled from CT this morning for the 3K NAM, except GON had a lot of lift below the DGZ

    Screenshot 2024-02-12 103753.png

    Yeah I'm pretty impressed with many of the soundings across the state. It's been a while since we seen something like this. Much of the state is going to get into this banding. I suppose it is possible ratios hold back the higher extent of totals, but I am really becoming worried about power issues, especially south and east of 84. That's alot of weight being added to trees/wires quickly. Maybe snow will have trouble sticking to power wires. 

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  5. 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    is there a graphic for dummies seasonal snow 'normals' product out there?  yeah yeah one can search the web themselves but if anyone has that link off hand ...  

    going into the internet and searching for that sort of thing is far less successful now that the internet has become something other than shared information, rather an enterprise for economic ambition and petty greed.  it just makes one angry -

    I'd be curious if something exists as well. I'm sure something has too. This is where I wish I knew Python and had the brain for that stuff. All you need is to gather data and then you can create anything you want. 

  6. 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    I've become more and more disillusioned with clown maps...they are lazy and often too wrong...looking at mid-levels and soundings is way better.

    That's exactly how I feel. When they first became a thing they were fun to look at and interpret them but I seriously think they are a detriment to the field. When I was at school and there were winter storm threats the first thing most everyone did when the models came out were go right to the snow maps. It's really sad. At least for me, part of the storm enjoyment is the hardcore analysis and assessment. 

  7. 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    Better come down heavy or it's alot of colder surfaces type accums 

    Temps will be more of a concern along eastern coastline like Will said, maybe even along coastal CT but ultimately temperatures are going to be tied into precipitation and rates as well. If we're getting crushed with banding or heavy precip its going to be snow. But I think there needs to be a bit more thought about power outage potential.

  8. I killed a spider in the bathroom this morning. First spider kill of the season. It was on my sink. Probably came inside to avoid the foot of snow. Unfortunately he wasn't able to avoid the toilet paper that got him. I'm still like the mid-levels for a good chunk of SNE. Obviously that gradient in cutoff is going to be brutal somewhere.

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