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Posts posted by weatherwiz
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Just now, Patrick-02540 said:
It jumps 120 miles due east right towards the convection.
It can't be discounted, I mean we've been screwed before in these scenarios. I wonder if there is literature out there on these situations. Someone's had to do extensive research into this. Would be great to have an understanding of when this situation does occur versus when it doesn't. Maybe there is no clear cut signal, models still really struggle with resolving convection, especially in these highly dynamic situations.
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I wish weathermodels had more products available but you can clearly see where the problem resides (where it places the low). It definitely seems to be favoring more towards the convection. Its an elongated low which is in the process of cyclogenesis. Additional upper-level tools would provide some additional guidance as to where you could expect to see the sfc low. Regardless, where it tracks the low from this, based on the H7 low track heavy banding would be much farther nw than the Euro has.
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It seems to me like its chasing convection. H7 looks good. Yes, I'm aware we don't live at H7.
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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:
Yeah worried a bit here in SW CT. Lost power and tree fell on my house in March 2018 from that heavy snow event.
The wind will be a factor as well. Not necessarily from a strength standpoint, but winds will be enough to sway branches/limbs, which, with added weight probably makes them more susceptible to coming down.
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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:
Yeah I'm pretty impressed with many of the soundings across the state. It's been a while since we seen something like this. Much of the state is going to get into this banding. I suppose it is possible ratios hold back the higher extent of totals, but I am really becoming worried about power issues, especially south and east of 84. That's alot of weight being added to trees/wires quickly. Maybe snow will have trouble sticking to power wires.
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GFS/NAM bufkit are an absolute crushing for PVD. Thinking the heaviest banding is going to be NW of here so that bodes extremely well for BOS-ORH-Kevin-HFD like Will mentioned earlier.
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
I typically find them wild. But they can give signals to heavy snow.
Agreed, I think the HREF has a tendency to be way overblown sometimes but I think it has great merit and support in this situation.
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:
3-4” per hour for a couple hours
If I get a chance to make any adjustments to my map later on I'll probably move my 10-14'' area slightly south and east and might even increase it a bit. I can see you getting between 15-18''.
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
GFS really nails HFD to BOS and NW with decent fronto I think.
GFS looks damn good. Interesting with H7 though...doesn't seem to develop a closed off circulation until its well east. But that 850 low track is damn perfect for that corridor of HFD to BOS
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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:
is there a graphic for dummies seasonal snow 'normals' product out there? yeah yeah one can search the web themselves but if anyone has that link off hand ...
going into the internet and searching for that sort of thing is far less successful now that the internet has become something other than shared information, rather an enterprise for economic ambition and petty greed. it just makes one angry -
I'd be curious if something exists as well. I'm sure something has too. This is where I wish I knew Python and had the brain for that stuff. All you need is to gather data and then you can create anything you want.
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I think BDL is like 15'' below the seasonal average for snowfall. That deficit could be eliminated.
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
I've become more and more disillusioned with clown maps...they are lazy and often too wrong...looking at mid-levels and soundings is way better.
That's exactly how I feel. When they first became a thing they were fun to look at and interpret them but I seriously think they are a detriment to the field. When I was at school and there were winter storm threats the first thing most everyone did when the models came out were go right to the snow maps. It's really sad. At least for me, part of the storm enjoyment is the hardcore analysis and assessment.
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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
Better come down heavy or it's alot of colder surfaces type accums
Temps will be more of a concern along eastern coastline like Will said, maybe even along coastal CT but ultimately temperatures are going to be tied into precipitation and rates as well. If we're getting crushed with banding or heavy precip its going to be snow. But I think there needs to be a bit more thought about power outage potential.
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7z NBM has BDL right around 33 for much of the storm and BOS mid 30's during the pre-dawn and then like 34-35 for the storm.
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:
Hrrr is a torch still. BL blows which has been my worry all along. But I’m a Debbie.
yeah just looked at that lots of 33-34
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HRRR looks like a crusher from BOS to HFD to DXR
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6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:
Agreed. Also the EPS mean was better
Even if the 6z Euro "verified" there would be more precip northwest of where it is indicating
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The 6z Euro I don't think looks terrible overall. It's not drastically different with the mid-levels than other guidance is. It seems like maybe its a bit more east with H7 than it is east-northeast? I wouldn't worry about the 6z Euro
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I killed a spider in the bathroom this morning. First spider kill of the season. It was on my sink. Probably came inside to avoid the foot of snow. Unfortunately he wasn't able to avoid the toilet paper that got him. I'm still like the mid-levels for a good chunk of SNE. Obviously that gradient in cutoff is going to be brutal somewhere.
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1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:
What are we looking at Paul?
Think many area going to get crushed.
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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one
in New England
Posted
The only tossing I want to be seeing right now is long tossing between Red Sox pitchers and catchers when they report.