weatherwiz

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

pretty good call overall though about the tendency towards weaker sauce.....seems like 1-3 area wide with a few 3 plus west and parts of ri/se mass will score the 4-6

I’m pretty happy overall. Off on a few things in terms of some of the processes involved. 

Got around 2” (maybe 2.5” at most it looked). Roads were horrible until I got onto 91

Coming down quite decently outside

NAM actually seems to have pegged the positioning of the banding very well (I was certainly wrong about that going back to a previous post), though we’ll see if it’s as hefty as advertised. It’s bit your typical band of heavy snow...looks like some heavier echos within. Looks like S CT sucks on subsidence this go around 

Solid coating out there. Nice flake size too. Off to bed...WAY past bed time. Better only be like 2'' here...any more and pulling out of the driveway won't be fun and I don't want to shovel at 4:30 in the morning 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

9 or so, not sure. I wasn’t checking every minute like I usually do. 

Sounds about right. I started to check like every 5 minutes and in between checks is when it started. Coming down a little heavier now...probably like Patriots Super Bowl confetti type intensity 

I hope it's not bad when I have to drive to Branford at 5. Last Tuesday I stayed at a Motel 6 like a minute from work. I don't typically hit traffic when I leave, but once I get closer to New Haven on 91 traffic picks up a bit. Do alot of people get work off for the holiday tomorrow?

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, coated here.

when did it start there? 

Just now, dendrite said:

BDR had some flakes.

Just started to lightly snow in WeHa. Very tiny tiny flakes 

Any ground reports of snow across CT at all yet? 

I may be wrong here, but there really isn't a ton of upper-level support going on...not much in the way of ulvl divergence. Seeing how the mlvl and ulvl jet are strengthening placing us on the nose of the jet the divergence isn't there. I wonder if the confluence (and strengthening confluence given the increasing jet to our SW) is yielding too much subsidence. I wonder if we'll ever see a consolidated precip field? Seems like it will be more spotty heavier echos and then crap outside of it

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess we'll see. 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's an interesting battle tonight, the HRRR vs. the NAM. They both have a similar look at the current time but diverge pretty good by tomorrow morning.

I think the NAM has the right idea about a band developing, however, I think it's handing of it is rather poor. The confluence and subsidence isn't really going to change much moving forward. I think this is something that ends up "suppressing" the precipitation and sort of eats away at the northern fringe of it. The NAM also seems a bit off with how far north it develops the best fronto. 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And that's around the time that Bufkit accumulates 1, 1.6, and 0.8" over a 3 hour stretch.

I'm just not sure how much to buy into that. The HRRR nearly isn't as impressive and actually seems to indicate a bit more in the way of subsidence. Still have a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region too with a bit of dry air...I guess we saturate but there is a chance the northern fringe of the precip gets eaten away. I could see the heavier banding like southern CT or over Long Island if it were to happen 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

2"/hr may be a stretch, but 1" is definitely doable between 06-12z depending on where in SNE you are located. There is a pretty good crosshair signal briefly for most Bufkit locations.

The NAM is impressive with that at BDL 15 units of omega at 6z in the SGZ. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan the King Met of CT has 3-6 “ as an FYI 

That is very reasonable. If that bad comes as advertised by some of the guidance that I see that happening. I just don't feel confident enough in that occurring.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You do look at every piece of guidance right? 

I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) 

For such a small storm this is sure a bit of a complex forecast. The indications of a narrow band or perhaps moderate...maybe heavy snow is quite interesting. Part of me is wondering if some of the latest trends towards a more potent band are a bit overdone...the 18z NAM develops a pretty intense looking area of fronto right over N CT, but the question is why? The degree of WAA doesn't seem that particularly intense and temperature gradients across a horizontal distance and vertically (I don't think) are anything big to right home about. Bufkit soundings do show sufficient ice crystals, but RH is a little questionable. 

I went C-2'' yesterday for CT...I guess may bump to 1-3'' (I could see some getting 4'' I suppose), but sort of a fine line to rely on what may be a narrow band/zone of snow to yield widespread amounts of 4''. 

37 minutes ago, weathafella said:

With your friend’s father?

Yes

Walking out to the hot tub at the beginning of February...and not even being cold. LOVELY

On 2/1/2019 at 9:40 PM, dendrite said:

No thanks. Not a fan of every sunny summer morning turning into BKN skies by 9am.

For those that despise the heat and humidity it was a perfect summer. 

I actually want a repeat of last summer...the days and days of heat/humidity were awesome. 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Niño summers tend to have decent tstm activity. It’s probably due to the propensity for troughing into the eastern US.

I could kill to have a summer like 2008. Outside of that year we never really had any other season that was similar to that with a persistent cold pool. Maybe 1992? 

18 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Im wondering if there are any stats to indicate how the year following a Historically active Severe Season plays out?

I’m not sure if there is much year-to-year variability...but then again they aren’t relatively common enough to probably yield any type of connection...plus we would have to come up with a way of measuring how “active a season was”. You could do wind/hail reports, but I dint think that is highly accurate although it may give an indication. 

Coukd also do thunderstorm days or events which produced at least an ‘x’ number of reports. 

I think though we tend to go through cycles of increased/decreased activity which span a few years. Like the early to mid 2000’s were active then 2009 into like 2012 was sort of dead outside of 06/01/2011. 

From local golf course earlier 

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

One of the better New England IPA's out there, you've come a long way!

It's incredibly delicious. A top 5 IPA favorite.