weatherwiz

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I don't see it. Maybe from a storm interaction or some locally backed winds for whatever reason.

The 6z NAM was concerning with the tor potential but all the other models veer the low level winds after the morning. You're left with straight hodographs. Any tornado potential is definitely very isolated. If something changes - like a mesolow or something that can serve to back low level winds like the 6z NAM had then I'll be more interested. 

The purely unidirectional component aloft and why flow is aligned with the front screams linear storm mode. Maybe some discrete ahead of it...can't rule out winds staying a bit backed in the Valley but I think we'll see multiple lines of storms. However...the NAM/GFS do increase the LLJ like right over SNE late afternoon so if somehow the sfc winds are more SW or S it could get a tad interesting 

160+ ULJ streak right along the US/Canadien border too...ouch 

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

So is Wiz heading west tomorrow morning?

I will be in the Danbury area b/c I'm doing my charter broadcast but as far as going chasing doubt it. I'm hanging out with someone tomorrow. 

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

May be one of those days when Danbury up through Litchfield gets baseballs while the marine influence tamps things down on the immediate coast. Still, impressive to see LRs greater than 8 C/km. When was the last time we saw that? 6/11? As an aside, looking at the scale above, I see it maxes out at 12 C/km. I didn't know that was even possible. I thought parcels rising dry adiabatically (sic?) was closer to 10.

The last time was maybe 7/15/95? Lapse rates 6/1/11 were only around 7.5 I believe. Maybe one of the events in 2002 approached 8

On 5/4/2018 at 10:18 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You once talked about (fairly recent maybe early winter) how you cruise the speed limit in the left lane and never move over to the right while cars piled up behind flashing their high beems. A bunch of us berated your poor driving skills....did you learn something new in drivers ed last semester ?

Hopefully you saw a few dark clouds earlier, what a rush. 

That post was totally misread by everyone then  

I said I always get into the left land and will usually do between 70-80 mph (sometimes I'll get to 82 depending on if there is nobody else really ahead of me and if its a straight away). I said I prefer the left land b/c I don't have to worry about cars that merge onto the highway (unless there is a left on ramp) and for the most part there isn't a whole ton of wavering in and out of lands between left and center. 

What I said was I will not just pull over if I'm doing 70-75+ (especially when speed limit is only 55) b/c the person behind me wants to do 80...90 mph. changing lanes and crap when there is lots of density is what leads to accidents. 

****

3 minutes ago, hypatia said:

A friend of mine in Richford, VT reports seeing golf ball sized hail.

damn...I want to see golf ball hail. 

I think mesosnalysis updates more rapidly now than just every hour

Nasty signature SE of Burlington

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours.

Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now.

Thanks!! Noted for future reference. 

Don't see this in the northeast very often 

Just now, CT Rain said:

You also have 60-70 knots right off the deck. Not going to take much to mix those winds down. 

maybe this will be a situation where the radar doesn't look impressive but trees are toppling over left and right. 

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It was snowing in northern NY last weekend. Wonder if left over cover in the high peaks can dampen the threat a bit?

maybe add more moisture  

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is gonna be schweeeet ass schadenfreude bust

I was just reading the outlook and they mentioned numerous severe gusts across MI...I don't think the thermodynamic environment there was impressive either. Perhaps the high Dcape will help? Maybe it is a bit noteworthy too that we were able to get some pretty decent gusts yesterday and you would think today conveciton would be much deeper. but idk...MLcapes less than 1000...tough to get truly excited 

WOW...mod risk. Kind of odd to see that with such meager MLcape 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not the way you drive. You’ll get there on Sunday. 

??? are you implying i drive slow. I'm the total opposite  

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Guaranteed EF2 for in the 10 percent tor zone now since Wiz will miss it

I wonder if I could still make chasing. I get out of work in Branford at 5. ( wishful thinking) 

those LCL's lol

Tornado Watch coming soon up north 

Very potent ML and UL jet streak will really enhance upper divergence 

I'm a bit surprised at the late timing shown by the 3km NAM. Doesn't push anything through here until around 4z or so

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually westerly flow FTW. Pretty good winds aloft (50kts near 700). ML CAPES are not that impressive, but I still note guidance is bring some good storms right to the coast and even srn areas. So I was intrigued and looked to see why. Initially best instability is pike north where better srfc to 850 theta-e lies. However by late day it looks like a surge of higher theta-e down to 925 moves in. Also coincides with better MU CAPE draped near the Pike at 00z. So, this almost looks like storms forming at nose of good low level theta-e..almost like an elevated type deal, but not quite. Also seems  like H5 temps are slightly cooler E and N you go. So that will help. Warmer temps in srn NY state at that level. Note the HRRR has decent UH swaths near pike and north. UH Udraft Helicity, could mean a couple of these could be rather strong or even severe.

Yeah I found it intriguing the past few days how the models increased instability towards the evening...something you don't usually see happen around here and especially this time of year. Initially I was thinking maybe a plume of steep lapse rates was moving in but yeah...that's a pretty decent plume of theta-e air which moves in later on. 

Is the NAM Nest not working? 

There is a reason we do May 1st as the countdown until severe weather season and that's b/c the season begins in May and looks like we're right on time this year as we are looking at the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow and Friday and the potential exists for some of the thunderstorms to become strong to severe. 

While the main cold front is still well west tomorrow, several pieces of shortwave energy will be moving through the fast westerly flow aloft during the afternoon tomorrow and a pre-frontal trough may be set up just to our west but the main driver for forcing tomorrow will be pieces of energy moving through the flow aloft. 

With temperatures well into the 80's to near 90 away from the coast and dewpoints climbing into the mid-60's combined with fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will yield the development of moderate instability tomorrow afternoon. While winds in the lowest couple km aren't particularly strong there is plenty of speed shear tomorrow afternoon with a LLJ exceeding 30-35 knots and MLJ exceeding 50 knots. 

As the impulses move overhead we'll likely see showers and thunderstorms develop, however, there is some uncertainty as to the aerial coverage of the storms. Given moderate instability and strong shear the potential will exist for thunderstorms to become strong to severe and pose a threat for strong to damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Higher LCL's, modest low-level directional shear, and weak flow in the lowest few km should preclude any tornado potential.

Friday can be discussed after