weatherwiz

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well ... that's based on modeling, right?    ... those algorithms producing said index(es) are based upon modeled input - what if the models are wrong?   ... 

I mean, big heat "tends" to come along with cap/CIN... That factor suppresses wide-spread CU genesis and hence, unabated sun and big heat can then transpire; the two circumstances thus tend to come together.  

There's obviously the temporal concern with moving parts.  If we CIN through say...2 pm, and temps bomb to 97 with DPS of 60+, then ... your -5 stuff moves over top, that could be the source for Monday afternoon shenanigans...   But, we're talking about the modeled inputs behaving ...combined with experience of course.  

The Euro 'looks' too be more of the CIN heat synopsis though 

 

You're certainly right with that perspective. I went ahead and looked at H7 temperatures and those would certainly suggest capping. When you have H7 temps approaching +10 around these parts that's pretty strong. 

What I was thinking was this didn't necessarily have that textbook look of nig heat into our region...we weren't under the dome of the high pressure (almost right on the crest) and the source of the hottest llvl air was just to our SW and it was the flow transporting some of this into our area. But look at H7 ridging and positioning we do get those high H7 temps in.

As far as EML goes the pattern actually looks pretty damn good for advection of an EML plume or EML air into our region. There is just one problem...there is no (or little source region lol). What screws things over I think is that initial trough which digs into the western US this weekend and (while flattening) progresses towards the central US and it screws with the EML environment 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z NAM blasts interior SNE like a p-wave off a h-bomb with some sort of what looks like derecho activity late Monday afternoon... 

But, like I was ruminating in the other thread, this situation (and unsure if the NAM is handling appropriately) may be too capped.  Big heat domes tend to come with a CIN layer below the EML ... I am noticing that NAM is subtly lower with heights in the transient eastern ridge than prior runs, and that may just erode enough of that to unlid what proooobably would amount to some pretty high SB CAPE.   If that happened, it would be explosive as an understatement - 

Yeah I didn't mention Monday but Monday looks real interesting as well. Models do show some s/w energy moving through as the ulvl ridge breaks down. This also allows for some strengthening westerlies to move overhead. As far as the capping is concerned the lid strength index values were right around -5 or so which would indicate that capping wouldn't be a concern...I guess that could make sense with height falls aloft?...usually with capping issues we see heights rising. 

I wouldn't rule out MCS regeneration across our region either with perhaps some activity developing along the OFB as it propagates into western sections. 

Not sure about here but Tuesday could be quite interesting just off to our southwest. Obviously lapse rates are meh but could be some enhanced low-level shear to work with 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it's just the climo factored into the statistical analysis. So maybe some ballpark figure for the midpoint of the 7d prog?

ahh that is another possibility as well. We discussed this a few times in one of my classes but never really came up with an answer...or searched around. but I don't recall ever seeing anything mentioned about it in any of the readings I've done about interpreting MOS. I guess at the end of the day it's not totally significant. 

Question about the extended GFS MOS data...when it gives the climo for high/low is that the climo averaged for the entire period or is it the climo for the beginning or the end of the period? 

Actually a shame that 1) We probably have showers moving through during the day and 2) That s/w isn't timed quicker...not a terrible looking environment across western sections. Actually some nice looking hodos on some of the soundings. 

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything is early now. Wed morning fropa. Congrats to Everyone on sprinkles thru a mid level deck 

Debating on maybe going to NY Wednesday 

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wondering when/if NE Canada finally collapses and the other shoe falls on the delusions of cool climate grandeur people are being enabled with - ha.  Seriously ...we could see a hemispheric slosh event and pig STR genesis over eastern N/A ...  

The models are hinting at it...   But yeah, should that evolve, that would tend to shut down synoptic -scale instability scenarios in lieu of mid level capping.

Starting to wonder if the configuration will ever break down   

I have not really looked at long-range in quite sometime (as in influences of the global pattern and such) but this seems rather odd to me to see such an extensive feature become established at the high liatitudes this time of year. 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just going by the Euro mass fields (00z) operational run ... looks like we are in the right exit region of nosing into western zones very late Wednesday afternoon/early evening, then evac increasing through the early night.  Meanwhile, the surface to 3 and perhaps 6 km look modest for directional shear but pretty actively tilted (velocity shearing). 

I'd say it's not impossible we spill a couple of broken line segments over eastern NY/W CT/MA toward 00z.  

I can see that happening. Could even see a bit of an instability spike around 0z across far western areas too with some decent theta-e advection modeled. 

Looking ahead though what a horrific pattern. Although, I guess there is some hope for maybe some cold pool aloft setups but just yuck. 

16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was thinking Thursday, with some height falls and wind max approaching from PA .. but, it may be a bit of a timing issue with the S/W out pacing day-time heating.  At least...going with the Euro mass-fields.  Or ... perhaps it will accelerate and become a Wed evening deal too ... nice

edit: yeah I guess some of the other models do bring it in later Wed...

yeah the timing certainly has not trended in our favor. 

Boundary layer and low-level winds could be an issue on Wednesday but Wednesday has been a bit intriguing for a few days now. 

yeah that thing looks like it would be a heck of alot stronger than an EF1 or EF2

5 hours ago, StormSurge said:

This worked out nicely! The storms woke me up this morning.

Absolutely!

Quite the show in Newtown overnight 

11 hours ago, radarman said:

Maybe some elevated convection for Long Island/ part of the south coast late Tuesday night/ early Weds morning as MLCAPE ramps up.  Too bad we couldn't muster any instability tomorrow during the day.

Time to ride the MCS train if the GFS is right?

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

We were on the air pretty much from 2:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. with a break for NBC Nightly News. We didn't get one complaint about our coverage or the forecast.

Since high end severe weather is rare around here when people see the pictures of the damage they're generally pretty forgiving if their neighborhood wasn't impacted. Same thing on 6/1/11 we had been talking about tornado potential for 3 days - but no one complained about the forecast even though CT didn't see one. 

Certainly true...also, if someone wasn't directly affected by any of the storms last week there is a pretty damn good chance they knew someone who was. 

49 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually LCLs weren't especially favorable Tuesday, but were trending towards 1000 m in the valley. Similarly, LCLs were > 1000 m on 6/1/11 in western NE but 750 m east of ORH. So the supercells were heading into a better environment.

I think if we had lower LCL’s on Tuesday we would have saw a strong tornado (maybe two)

21 hours ago, CT Rain said:

The storm was more discrete and there was more instability - I think better low level shear in general. 

Yeah dews were much higher and I think LCL’s were much lower. I actually didn’t even see what LCL’s ended up being around here on Tuesday. Do you know what they were? I know they were modeled to be a bit higher than what you would like to see but local dew pooling/theta e advection I’m sure lead to some lower LCL’s. 

Gotta watch Monday/Tuesday timeframe too. Potential may be just west of here but something to watch 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

my man getting some some

I wish

I stayed at a friends house who is in my fraternity. 

Stayed in Newtown last night and when leaving this morning it took me 30 minutes to get to the highway. All roads I tried were closed 

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This dude might be able to help

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1

i know. I’ve read all his stuff. There were just some things I was trying to explore that went behind the paper. I already have them   Credited in my presentation 

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Like check the ABQ 12z sounding from today. What we would consider the EML is actually just their mixed layer from the day before.

Gradually that moves east, and as elevation drops it gets higher in the atmosphere. And convective overturning dissipates the magnitude some as well. Obviously the deeper the EML the better for the Northeast, but yes, you could see a chunk only 100 mb deep leftover by the time it reaches here (which gets very hard to ID as remnant EML).

This is so helpful! I've tried to search a bit more on EML's since I never truly understood how to explain the origin of them. I'm also going to do a presentation on this event at our Tristate weather conference in the fall and wanted to briefly explain EML origin and this totally helps. 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

And I know 700-500 mb is what we look at, but oftentimes it's just having some layer within the sounding of steep lapse rates. Because an EML plume begins as surface based out on the High Plains, and gradually becomes more elevated as it moves east, as elevation drops towards sea level.

On 14.12z sounding out around IA, the base of that EML was more like 800 mb, or even 850 mb. So sometimes it doesn't quite line up with our conventions.

It's funny you mention this because I've been thinking about this and I wonder if my thinking was incorrect. I thought that EML's did originate aloft like at the 10,000' to 18,000' level (but then again isn't that like the surface for the source regions of EML's?)

Anyways...so we could see an EML plume that's like from 700-600mb but the 700-500mb lapse rate alone may not properly portray that? 

Friends house in Newtown 

34 minutes ago, Quincy said:

I'm sure this has already been discussed, but can't understate the relevance of EML plumes with respect to significant severe weather in the Northeast. Not only did the 18z ALB sounding sample 7.7 C/km mid-level lapse rates (high-end, historically), but the expansive nature of >7 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates ahead of the entire line of storms yesterday was certainly impressive.

 

yeah the extensive coverage of the EML plume was quite impressive and I think definitely underrated...not in terms of how the event produced but just b/c of the historical significance. Those observed lapse rates too on the 18z sounding are striking. That's pretty extreme stuff. Even 6/1/11 I think only had lapse rates around 7.5...don't think they were above that. I think the only time (could be wrong) that 700-500 lapse rates approached 8 C/KM during a convective event was 7/15/95 when I remember reading they were like 8-8.5.