weatherwiz

A bit surprised they didn't go moderate with the 13z outlook. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw it with the 1630z outlook

If there are any discrete cells today we can't totally rule out a strong tornado somewhere. LCL's are on the high side, however, which could limit that a bit but some of the forecast hodographs are quite impressive. 

Significant Tornado Ingredients Increased as well

satellite looking good indeed. Going to be a fun day ahead. 

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wiz was 2

I was 9 and I remember that summer like it was yesterday 

25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

"Nearly continuous"

Meaning it wasn't continuous. The story I've heard is that all the trees were mainly down to the NE or E, with a few to the NW. So in my opinion, either it was a tornado where the few to the NW were, OR this was straight line wind with a few randomly tossed trees based on local factors of tree weaknesses, etc. 

I mean it's all possible. The environment was fair for QLCS tornadoes, mainly west of NH, so it's not crazy that one happened. But 35 mile long one? Of course the beam is 11,000 ft above radar level near the CT River (about 9,000 ft from ENX) and still over 7,000 ft in Merrimack Co. These types of tornadoes are unlikely to be very deep mesos, but a long track one certainly would be (a la NH 2008).

How often do you see QLCS tornadoes track that long of a distance? It’s extremely rare...especially around these parts. Remember the day of the fake Rolland tornado? There was a series of tornadoes which was counted as multiple tornadoes but in realty it was just one cell which produced multiple times? 

This year is reminding me of 1998!!!!

24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

No. They note part of it was inaccessible.

Yes.

Yeah I’m no expert on this stuff but when I saw that “part of it was inaccessible” I asked myself, “then how can you say continuous”? 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The key for parts of WNE is how much clearing we get in the wake of the morning shortwave. The NAM does have subtle height rises and subsidence following it, so that could suppress cloud cover and provide some insolation.

It also seems on days with EML advection we clear out not only rather easily but clear out quite nicely. That's just probably b/c of the degree of mid-level dry air associated with it though lol. 

NE PA  that's a hodo. imagine if there was more of a backed sfc flow   

Quite impressed by the 18z NAM thus far. Even looks a bit more backed with sfc flow. Hodos are not as straight...actually long and curved. Looks like (guessing maybe warm front?) some boundary is like right overhead. 

I don't think I've ever seen a 9 C/KM 700-500 lapse rate in the northeast before

3 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

 

TOR warnings will be flying like Red Sox wins in the Great Barrington area tomorrow.  Meanwhile Wiz is in a cafe in Danbury futilely whispering sweet nothings to a nubile coed while Sarah Mclachlan warbles faintly in the background.   What a fail   

I don't really have the time anymore to just go out and chase. If we get a setup on a day when I'm free I'll do it but if not it's whatever. I'm not really upset about it

Not bad...probs of 0-1km helicity >= 150 m2s2

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro with a 7/10 split 

I feel like this is our biggest killer in these setups...its not that the EML plume weakens or mixes it's that the plume of best EML air moves out to sea before anything can happen with it. Tough to gauge...this is something that isn't modeled extremely well. I did notice though that between the 9z SREF and 15z SREF it appeared the plume was moving east a bit quicker. 

One worry is the steepest lapse rates move out too quick 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I don't see it. Maybe from a storm interaction or some locally backed winds for whatever reason.

The 6z NAM was concerning with the tor potential but all the other models veer the low level winds after the morning. You're left with straight hodographs. Any tornado potential is definitely very isolated. If something changes - like a mesolow or something that can serve to back low level winds like the 6z NAM had then I'll be more interested. 

The purely unidirectional component aloft and why flow is aligned with the front screams linear storm mode. Maybe some discrete ahead of it...can't rule out winds staying a bit backed in the Valley but I think we'll see multiple lines of storms. However...the NAM/GFS do increase the LLJ like right over SNE late afternoon so if somehow the sfc winds are more SW or S it could get a tad interesting 

160+ ULJ streak right along the US/Canadien border too...ouch 

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

So is Wiz heading west tomorrow morning?

I will be in the Danbury area b/c I'm doing my charter broadcast but as far as going chasing doubt it. I'm hanging out with someone tomorrow. 

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

May be one of those days when Danbury up through Litchfield gets baseballs while the marine influence tamps things down on the immediate coast. Still, impressive to see LRs greater than 8 C/km. When was the last time we saw that? 6/11? As an aside, looking at the scale above, I see it maxes out at 12 C/km. I didn't know that was even possible. I thought parcels rising dry adiabatically (sic?) was closer to 10.

The last time was maybe 7/15/95? Lapse rates 6/1/11 were only around 7.5 I believe. Maybe one of the events in 2002 approached 8

On 5/4/2018 at 10:18 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You once talked about (fairly recent maybe early winter) how you cruise the speed limit in the left lane and never move over to the right while cars piled up behind flashing their high beems. A bunch of us berated your poor driving skills....did you learn something new in drivers ed last semester ?

Hopefully you saw a few dark clouds earlier, what a rush. 

That post was totally misread by everyone then  

I said I always get into the left land and will usually do between 70-80 mph (sometimes I'll get to 82 depending on if there is nobody else really ahead of me and if its a straight away). I said I prefer the left land b/c I don't have to worry about cars that merge onto the highway (unless there is a left on ramp) and for the most part there isn't a whole ton of wavering in and out of lands between left and center. 

What I said was I will not just pull over if I'm doing 70-75+ (especially when speed limit is only 55) b/c the person behind me wants to do 80...90 mph. changing lanes and crap when there is lots of density is what leads to accidents. 

****

3 minutes ago, hypatia said:

A friend of mine in Richford, VT reports seeing golf ball sized hail.

damn...I want to see golf ball hail. 

I think mesosnalysis updates more rapidly now than just every hour

Nasty signature SE of Burlington