weatherwiz

That i am pumped about. Especially since there is a hockey game in Hartford Saturday...I dead the walks from the parking lot to arena in winter...even though its only like a 10 second walk...except for when you have to wait for the stupid guy on the crosswalk to tell you its o to proceed. Sometimes I just say screw it and play frogger.

I get terrible cramps in the cold...specifically in my arms. I tense up and if I have my arms bent too quickly and straighten them I get awful cramps right where my arms bend.

well technically climo can still be brutal. Like in Siberia...maybe their worst climo is like -20...so -20 on a day is climo but that's still brutal

meant more for overnight lows...single digits with lower teens. BDL I think lowest avg max is like 33 or 34 and lowest min in the upper teens. I'm only dreaming hoping this is the coldest lol...also, with our latitude we can still probably get alot of snow without these brutal airmasses.

Looks like EWR is going to shatter their record low max tomorrow. This is terrible...brutal. Hopefully this is the coldest airmass we get all season

Kinda going back to what I mentioned yesterday and I saw your comment regarding it being chaotic...that seems extremely likely and it's going to make it difficult to address the upcoming pattern. It does look like the EPO, PNA, NAO/AO all really fluctuate quite a bit...perhaps that's a good thing though

The pattern end of the month into December is going to be rather interesting and I'm not so sure it works into our favor...I think we're going to have to get a great deal of help from the Pacific and by help something to completely change-up the pattern which looks to evolve. Both the euro and GFS continue to indicate a pretty significant (in terms of strength) jet extension from east Asia to the west coast of the United States...typically not good for us, however, there are a few caveats here...weakness within the flow may yield some Rossby wave breaking and instead of a completely zonal pattern developing we may see a rather highly amplified pattern developing...this is a case where I guess we would want some support from the Arctic...which I guess there are some signals that may happen. The pattern looks to become pretty chaotic and it could also be a fairly warm one too.

that's never a good thing.

Looks like a nice ice storm in western VA

too much work

This is nuts

i wish Ryan Maue's site had the Ukie. Only time I ever looked at that model I almost broke my neck trying to interpret it

Speaking of avatar's I miss Kevin's avatar from several years ago of him making a funny face wearing an ugly UCONN sweatshirt but cute shorts. He was standing in front of some building.

with what?

That one is probably going to be more highly dependent on a phase with that northern stream energy. If the phase happens in our favor plenty of cold air to tug in and lock in.

This is a pretty wild sounding in NW PA Monday morning lol. Nearly isothermal from 700-500 lol. Moist and a bit unstable below it and about as stable as can be above it...maybe good LES out that way

No I was looking at for 12z Mon.

That could be close to some good icing across central NE...or maybe sleet. 20F and sleet hahaha

also seems like it's not as quick with amplifying it.

Actually on second look...it seems to match the euro quite well. Although I'm not sure if that kink in the 1020 isobar is really related to where the cold front is..at least based on streamlines anyways...

It's just odd b/c how the isobars are laid out does not match guidance at all. I don't even think a blend of guidance would yield that.

the front is also going to become somewhat aligned (parallel) with the flow aloft as it's moving through. This would result in a slower FROPA through the region...and likely stall a bit somewhere....perhaps just off the coast which is what typically happens. not saying we see a significant snow event, but I'm wondering if the set-up favors some ana frontal precip given there is still a connection to the GoM (with some connection to the PAC) with the SW flow in mlvls transporting moisture.

What's interesting is the WPC has the front much farther south and east 12z Monday then what models advertise. Looks like the trough amplifies too far west and heights quickly build ahead of it and that pushes a warm front north and pushes the baroclinic zone farther northwest. Then we get low development along it, it becomes closed off and boom...we all know what closed off low to the west means. I was reading something...yesterday actually where models seem to struggle mightily during these -EPO regimes with placement of the front along the EC and are typically too far NW. The one big difference too between today and next week is there is a cold enough airmass already in place...but it just gets shoved out. Anyways it's just interesting where the WPC has the placement of the front in relation to the models. So if there is a possibility the models are too far NW with the baroclinic zone...this potential may not totally be over. Could this also be a scenario where models are too quick with lifting the warmer airmass north? Maybe there is still room for freezing rain across CNE and NNE...like valley areas where cold air can be wedged a bit longer?

Great first post

Ok this drives me nuts. there is the option for 20th century re-analysis but you can only go to 2015... the top link goes to present day but start at 1948... HOW ARE YOU SUPPOSED TO CREATE A SET OF COMPOSITES TO INCLUDE ANY LIST OF YEARS FROM 1854-PRESENT???