weatherwiz

This is one of the more bizarre thermal profile modelings I can remember. Do models take into account latent heat release at all? I know sneaky warm layers aren't uncommon but some of what's being modeled is a little head scratching

biased...more like intelligent. Ray is a phenomenal forecaster who uses absolutely zero bias in his forecasts. He devotes a great deal of time into making (and what usually end up being) very solid calls. Go stick to your ridiculous snow maps and let the people who actually forecast based on science/meteorology do their thing.

yup lol. oh well...time to go home...no traffic either

I guess looking closer on the cod map there could be another closed contour over LI...anyways the entire thing is rather broad and that's going to keep the lift much further north.

ehhh...it's kinda a broad circulation so hard to really tell where it exactly tracks over but Branford is close enough to LI just a ferry trip away

Tracks H7 and H85 over my fanny

Should kinda be expected though with that push of WAA...it's just a matter of how the column responds post WAA regime.

Flagstaff I think is very underrated...they can get crushed with snow and wind.

Wish I was in western SD though...sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts 50-70 mph...reminds me of watching Little House on the Prairie...and reading the books. Maybe next year I'll do storm chasing for a week out west and then take another week for snow chasing and go to a place that's going to get a nasty blizzard in the Plains

Hamden is probably the best spot to be in CT for extreme weather lol. "F4" in 1989, another tornado last year, downbursts, macrobursts, they had that historic flooding, the 40'' of snow, more flooding.

Someone should get thundersnow too!!!

Thanks! I probably would have waited until today to do a map as opposed to yesterday but I knew I wouldn't have had time to do a full-out blog post lol. I'm hoping not to have to tweak this anymore. The more snow we get, the faster the winter goes

I'm pretty excited...this is exciting. Unfortunately I'll miss out on the big snows at BDL b/c I'll probably stay at a hotel in Branford Sunday so I can get to work Monday but I'll be off antibiotics tomorrow so I can chillax in my hotel room sunday night watching the Pats/Bruins and drink this awesome double IPA I bought a few weeks ago I've been dying to try. WINTER!!!!!!!!

I'm really liking the WAA thump here...also becoming a bit more impressed with the banding with round 2. I know we'll have to overcome those warm layers, but I think dynamic cooling is going to help big time and the lift in the banding is going to be pretty intense. Decided to increase from yesterday.

I don't think it's that powdery in CT....maybe, maybe at the very onset of the WAA thump. On MOnday though thermals are a little too warm for powder here I think

Even seeing some MAUL looks on some soundings...makes sense with some steep lapse rates involved. I'd watch for convective elements here which can really make for some localized white pasting fun

Seems like dynamic cooling perhaps is trying to really get going and trying to work some magic. We're super close here in northern CT...riding along the lines of an isothermal paste job. Kevin without power for weeks

I love these probability graphics. Wish Cod would add these to their list of products.

ughhh yeah you're right. Introduces perhaps the possibility of some light (but maybe a tad prolonged) duration of FZDZ? What also has me worried here with part 1 and more robust totals is there really isn't much to keep the colder air locked in at the llvls...typically not a good signal for bigger thumps down in CT.

I think the NAM would even smoke much of CT with round 2. that's some pretty impressive frontogenesis which traverses the state in association the the CBD.

Sure has!! Unfortunately gaining weight has very little to do with just "eating food". My map I posted yesterday had 3-6'' for much of the state and 2-4'' along immediate shore...this just accounted for WAA snow though. I may update and include a 6-12'' zone up near the MA border.

It's the stupid POS ridiculous God awful should be wiped from model guidance snow maps which are leading to the stuff like "euro being the outlier" and "the notion of significant differences between the models". The upper-level features on the GFS and Euro...and all other guidance suggests a fairly robust storm here...while there are some differences in the surface evolution and what transpires post-WAA regime all models suggest robust activity Monday...obviously where depends on what many have already discussed. People are going to drool over the Euro showing 15-25''...call the GFS garbage b/c it only shows 10-15' and then be all upset and call the storm a bust b/c they didn't get 15-25'' and say the GFS "actually scored a win b/c it hit totals right"...when in reality all model guidance did a great job with this...just minor details in smaller-scale features.

I like the front end thump for us...it should rip for several hours Sunday afternoon.

This should be pinned in the thread lol...pretty perfect summation of how this will transpire.

It certainly is difficult...although I don't think it's impossible. I think the more difficult aspect perhaps is determining where the pivot point (if one occurs) occurs...that's when you get your axis of extreme totals. As it stands now...my wager would be that the best banding ends up either north of CT...or just into northern CT. One thing to keep in mind too that if there is going to be a region of extreme lift...there has to be a region of extreme subsidence...I know maybe it's too far out to look at details regarding bufkit but there are the signals of subsidence...if anything I think it can be more difficult to determine the subsidence aspect. But anyways...one thing I think we know for sure if the closer you get to the CT coast...the less snow you'll get lol.