weatherwiz

it does seem like its trying to get its act together. some impressive hot towers blowing up. Also, HOW THE HELL DO YOU PRONOUNCE THiS SUCKERS NAME???

This is a completely different scenario than Fay...IMO. Perhaps the second half of the week would be more likely to be on the drier side as the flow flattens out but regardless of what happens with Isaias the flow is strong and southerly with an approaching front. Even if it were to go into FL...I am sure we would tap into moisture and advect it northward.

ehh not sure I totally agree with that. Given the position of the trough axis and mean flow ahead of it we'll get typical summer-time pop up downpours and t'storms daily...but to your point certainly nothing that would provide widespread relief.

I'm sure too the size has to play a significant factor in the progression of it as it moves up the coast. I thought too that these systems typically expand as they move north in latitude (especially if the system is transitioning from tropical to sub-tropical or extra-tropical). A smaller system could also perhaps mean a higher probability for some significant impact on a localized level?

Talk about agreement We could see that for a blizzard here and the storm would still go OTS or cut west

Ahhh interesting...thanks. This system does look to be rather small and compact. This is great, thank you!

I completely agree with your thoughts...makes ton of sense and there is historical backing to those thoughts as well. What site did you get that second graphic from?

Seems like it is also being impacted by some westerly shear? I haven't looked at shear forecasts moving forward but is shear to become more or less favorable?

Do you think we see any type of PRE with this? Models look a bit dry for Monday (though they get wetter Monday night) but given the flow Monday with some lift you have to wonder if we'll see some heavy rain around...maybe not exactly PRE.

I also recall the euro doing a similar solution with (I think it was Michael?) last year? That is certainly possible...I think we'll know just how possible though by this evening. I am shocked this was kept a cat 1 given the recent recon flights. But, if we start seeing signs of strengthening or organization over the next several hours this solution IMO can be tossed pretty quickly...but for now it's something to consider.

All solutions are possible at this stage, however, all these ENS probs are pretty pointless right now. I mean confidence in what happens with Isaias over the next 24-hours is extremely low...so forget about 4-5 days down the road. The prospects for 4-5 days down the road is highly dependent on evolution over the next 24-36 hours so until we get through this period what models shows 4-5 days out is rather pointless.

Is it normal for two recon flights to be flying into a storm at the same time? (Starting to follow tropical much more closely and learn more since it's my weakest aspect of the field).

they typically tend to perform rather well in these setups...I suppose those some nasty cells could try and sneak into Fairfiled County...maybe into the Berkshires too? Anyways, given the degree of llvl instability combined with the look of the hodos that's enough to peak some excitement. Maybe I'll go chasing...if I find someone to go with. I don't like doing it alone

A warm front approaches Sunday advecting rich llvl moisture/theta-e northward combined with increasing shear. Just south of the warm front near moderate instability is possible despite weak lapse rates given dewpoints surging well into the 70's. MLCAPE values could approach 2,000 J/KG...especially if there is enough sunshine. Combination of strong wind shear and moderate buoyancy will result in the development of scattered t'storms...including potential for supercell t'storms. The greatest risk will be damaging winds, however, forecast hodographs exhibit large/curved hodos so the threat for isolated tornadoes is possible. Despite the poor lapse rates this event has the chance to be a fairly decent severe event...although perhaps moreso across PA/NY, however, southwest SNE needs to watch closely.

Yeah...at first I thought the track was a lol but then looking aloft I was like oh ****. If this type of configuration remains modeled like through tomorrow then concern has to be raised

wow...that H5 look on the euro actually looks nearly perfect for such a track...so I guess that gives that solution some type of support

This is something to watch. Seems like many systems that go into this area end up becoming rather slow movers.

yeah I agree it is close...I think the orientation is just a bit off and perhaps would like to see some better digging west of us. Certainly close but when it comes to us...close usually not enough lol. I do think we will see some heavy rain and gusty winds though

The upper level look would lead to me to believe more likely OTS than a hit here...but certainly could see some moisture and gusty winds (much needed rain too!)

I would think perhaps 3-4months? I think the vaccine is 2 shots (a month apart) and then I’m sure they monitor for another couple months to determine whether it was effective and if there are any side effects? (This is all just a guess though)

I can’t wait for the phase 3 results from moderna

They are in a bubble so as long as everyone abides by the rules all should be good

Well since you seem to lack the ability to read...or perhaps it's just a lack of reading comprehension, I'll break it down for you on a first grade reading level. It's not my fault some of you don't seem to have the brain capacity to understand convection and how it works or operates and seem to think that every time a convection threat is mentioned it means a large-scale outbreak with widespread convection.

Had some excellent views of the storms while driving. Wish I could have taken pictures but was driving

Only 207 out of 31,960 tests done between Friday - Sunday in CT came back positive (0.65%).