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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    All the ingredients are certainly there. Almost kinda a good thing there isn’t a huge amount of lift...want to keep storms discrete. HRRR is wild but I think it’s warm front happy overdone
  2. weatherwiz
    Was too early I’m unsure if what I want to do really. Not sure how much we see develop.
  3. weatherwiz
    Looking decent across PA/NY but the question is initiation. I am leaning towards going to NE PA tomorrow
  4. weatherwiz
    These last few pages are a disaster
  5. weatherwiz
    still debating on going into NE PA.
  6. weatherwiz
    oof you're not kidding. Not a good thing to see...especially for so early in the morning when you would expect overnight convection to really aid in things.
  7. weatherwiz
    yes. although NNE might have a shot on Monday
  8. weatherwiz
    I'm thinking perhaps NE PA? I've done that before...shit area but fook it.
  9. weatherwiz
    Seriously considering chasing Sunday...
  10. weatherwiz
    It's done a relatively good job fighting the shear. I think it looks much better than it did this morning. We'll see how much these flare ups of convection help too...especially moving into the overnight when convection typically seems to really increase. Looks like even some cloud tops now colder than -90C...impressive
  11. weatherwiz
    Trying to look super close at the computer (so close I hit my nose on the screen) but satellite presentation really seems to be improving with an increase in convection. I like to call hot towers popcorn towers v/c they pop like popcorn
  12. weatherwiz
    river tubing for the chickens
  13. weatherwiz
    I wonder if there is an interaction at play with the s/w over the Great Lakes area...storm really seems to strengthen up around NJ...also looks like it may even keep the center perhaps a bit offshore...though that could be resolution driven?
  14. weatherwiz
    Yes. This is in dangerous territory...discounting any type of solution or letting guard down just is not a good idea. Even though ensembles seem to have a rather solid agreement on what occurs that still needs to be taken with caution...only b/c the evolution over the next 24...even 48 hours holds the key. Too my untrained eye there does seem to be some better organization transpiring over the past few hours.
  15. weatherwiz
    life's too bad sometimes
  16. weatherwiz
    Model Intensity Guidance for the most part does not go above category 1...still though, given the area this is in I would not dismiss anything at this juncture. These next 24-hours are huge. I mean any sort of slight trend towards favorable conditions and this could take off in a heart beat...and we've seen that happen numerous times within this region.
  17. weatherwiz
    I wonder if this will be upped a bit at 2:00...latest recon did find an area of pretty strong winds
  18. weatherwiz
    I could envision a scenario where convection tires to develop but it struggles to become deep enough to really utilize the ingredients...only exception may be right along the warm front. You can definitely see areas of warming aloft on various forecast soundings which is not very good to see. I kinda like northeast PA for anything. May see overlap of best ingredients occur there...plus some extra lift from the warm front.
  19. weatherwiz
    something must be up with the PSU bufkit page b/c I have been having issues with bufget all week. I swear...there's always fooking problems somewhere...like WTF??? People can't fix stuff? The NWS products...more specifically the SPC page has been nothing but pure garbage the past few months.
  20. weatherwiz
    I like the pants dying aspect
  21. weatherwiz
    I just thought of something...we could see TOR's ripping through Sunday taking down trees and power poles and whatever if left standing is taken down by Isaias Tuesday/Wednesday.
  22. weatherwiz
    sounds like the former Red Sox SS prospect
  23. weatherwiz
    Biggest key is basically where this stands when it's around the latitude of NC/SC and where the eye is. If it's off the coast and in positioning for strengthening...well then we gotta start thinking this is going to be a big hit.
  24. weatherwiz
    12z guidance is pretty impressive...gotta keep in mind the inhibiting factors though. If you follow Anthony Maisello on Twitter he's laid those out perfectly. Warming mid-level temps/capping and subsidence. Anyways, anytime you see theta-e values that rich combined with the degree of shear in place...you're eyes better be open.
  25. weatherwiz
    OMG
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