weatherwiz

If the HRRR is right SE MA/Cape could get destroyed with damaging winds. That is a pretty impressive line of convection shown. Probably see gusts 70-80 if that verified

Thus far NAM/HRRR indeed indicating some sort of convective line moving through. Widespread 50-60 knot gusts with it

I suppose this dry slot along with nose of LLJ max could be a focal point in aiding convection

There was the serial derecho a few months back. I think there was another event too a bit before that. The low CAPE/high shear events are very fickle. It's actually possible for shear to be too strong b/c if shear far outweighs buoyancy the updrafts get sheared apart and you can't generate robust enough updrafts to punch into and utilize the shear. Also, it is so warm aloft I think it will be very difficult to generate any lighting and we certainly won't see updrafts capable of lightning production.

yeah I was just checking the 18z HRRR and it had 60-80 J of 3km CAPE...given the shear parameters that certainly may be enough. Maybe I'm wrong and there will actually be some convection involved here. I think that's really the only way we materialize higher end winds out of this. Even still looking at bufkit (only looked at CT) it still seems to be struggling to really bring down significant gusts. But I mean if there is convection involved...it's going to be quite ugly. I just didn't see much in the way for convection outside of the insane forcing. EDIT: actually 12z was a bit better at BDL in terms of mixing

This seems a little crazy but there might be a window for some pre-line low-topped supercells Thursday evening. The HRRR has quite a bit of 3km CAPE actually.

should have gone chasing in NC tomorrow

Huge potential right near the Outer Banks...models traverse a ribbon of >1000 MLCape across the area. Tons of llvl instability too. Small window for a strong tornado in eastern NC

WOW enhanced in the mid-Atlantic with 10% TOR

I was around in the 80's too...but was a swimmer through most of the decade.

Even 90+ just off the Cape...unreal

2020 wasn't really all that dull but I guess it depends on the definition one is using for "dull" Sure last winter was pathetic and this summer wasn't the most active in terms of convection, but the weather events we did get this year...they packed a punch.

3km NAM actually has a decent surge of elevated instability and even hints at an embedded supercell potential

Merry Christmas to you too, Steve. This is certainly close. Did notice the 3km NAM was showing 50+ knot gusts over a widespread area. Not totally ruling this out.

For BDL, it actually looks to have the highest gust potential later Friday morning (if you keep the momentum xfer option at a 10). However, if you increase the depth of mixing and change it to a 20 it does yield gusts potential 50+. Too me that seems a little concerning for higher gusts b/c the GFS is usually more mix happy. FWIW, I'm not saying we aren't seeing big gusts. I'm thinking 40-50 mph gusts state wide but don't think we'll see widespread 50-60+ gusts

Completely agreed...if we see fine line convection or any dry slots...well all bets are off.

I'm just trying to bring perspective and lay out everything not go all balls out b/c some model maps are showing 60+ knot gusts. I' certainly not pounding my chest at all. I can see pockets of stronger winds for sure...but how many of these set ups in the past have been overplayed? There are virtually two scenarios here; 1) It pans out 2) It doesn't pan out So what's the difference between the set ups that pan out and don't pan out? Also, just going through various bufkit profiles...it's very hard to find any locations yielding strong enough mixing to bring down 50+ knot gusts.

bufkit soundings actually hint at this very well. Also, it seems from past experiences that a stronger LLJ can often lead to a stronger inversion (especially if the strength of the WAA aloft exceeds the strength of WAA at the sfc).

If there is convection involved then we certainly would see high wind potential...in fact, we would probably see widespread damage and power outages. There is no doubt this LLJ is about as anomalous as you'll ever see, but we need to tap into that. It's always tough to gauging what percentage can be mixed down...sometimes its as high as 50%...other times it can be more around 30%. I also agree, the llvl warmth here plus the dews is something you certainly want to see when looking for wind potential...but the issue here is the distribution of warmth in the lowest say 4-5km is just too even...hence the crappy lapse rates. Sure this warmth will help to mix somewhat, but due to clouds and precipitation (you'd have to figure lots of showers ahead of the main line) that mixing is going to be very limited...and the best mixing would occur well prior to the core of the LLJ. If the core of the LLJ was ahead of the main rain rain then there would certainly be a window for very damaging winds. However, given it coincides with the timing of the heaviest rain, we are likely going to be rather stable and probably have a tough time mixing even close to 1,000'. Even looking at bufkit soundings for BDL...you have to change the mixing depth to a 20 to even get big gusts. Well too be fair school is like 95% math and not a ton of forecasting. forecasting is really more about experience and applying knowledge and someone who has been doing that for day 20 years will probably outforecast someone who just freshly graduated.

I've played up the past several wind events..didn't downplay any of them. This isn't a low topped convective situation either. Outside of the intense forcing this is very little instability to work with aloft...certainly not enough for any convective elements. And that whole "models can't handle low level lapse rates" thing made zero sense. Low-level lapse rates are going to be garbage...all you have to do is look at the thermal profile in the lowest 10,000 feet. Torrential rainfall is not going to mix winds down, in fact, torrential rainfall will help to induce an inversion. This is not a big wind setup. Sure...winds at 925 and 850 are off the charts, but that means nothing at the surface is they can't be tapped into. Sustained winds will be the most impressive (20-30 mph) with gusts 40-50 and the typical spots that get above 60 will do so. But this isn't a region wide 60+ gust setup

I still think it's going to be tough to generate widespread (or region wide 50-60 knot) winds. The core of the LLJ still looks to coincide with the timing of the heaviest rainfall. Not good when looking to draw down big winds. Yes, any inversion looks weak to "non-existent" (I don't totally buy a non-existing inversion in these setups) but you still have to get some mixing going and those llvl lapse rates are a joke. It seems we do better wind wise when they start exceeding 6.5 C/KM...they're pretty meh here.

I wish there was a stronger signal for convection. Oh well...another 6 weeks to go until our annual February event

ahh yeah you're right. Now I am not totally sure I buy that...otherwise they are in for some big trouble.

Here's BOS on the GFS that's quite impressive actually...but you gotta draw that down. That is probably pretty close to the inversion too.

2-6km lapse rates do look better over eastern sections.