weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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tough to tell but looks like it's already starting to weaken too...just judging based on the decreased size of the >70kt wind field at 925
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The 0z NAM looks a little stronger with ridging ahead of Henri and also is stronger with the jet max on the east side of the ulvl trough. Wonder if this will favor a tug west from the NAM
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ahh yes my mistake...they have it get to 85 mph. yeah that's what has me a bit nervous...this thing never really weakened or lost its characteristics in the hostile environment. So who knows what happens moving into the AM
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yeah just saw that...not too bad. If this thing does get its act together its primed to strengthen pretty quickly. Looks like the NHC never has it getting above 75 mph but idk...get this thing to be more stacked and not tilted and this could blow up like 20-25 knots
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HRRR would actually be good for some TOR's
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Robert Kraft tug and pull
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Henri now playing peek-a-boo on the Northeast panel view on the 0z HRRR...getting in view soon
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If you have to drive through 95 during the storm I would advise against that. Parts of 95 flood horribly and I bet it would be disastrous with this
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Probably happen as the center nears CT. low pressure makes babies pop
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Staying pat on the 0z
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After Tomorrow?
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looks to have remained steady
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I don't think it can be discounted...but I am not a hurricane forecaster. I mostly rely on the model intensity guidance (which can be very iffy...especially in RI environments...this isn't one of those but I don't want to fully base something off a chart). Given the significance of that type of strengthening has on the outcome...it needs to be considered.
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If this does strengthen into a category 2 or a higher-end category 1 we are in very deep trouble here
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My friend who got a freelance job at Channel 8 is thinking of staying in Branford Sunday...I may join him!
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The NAM hitting a tropical system correctly is like the Toronto Maple Leafs winning a first round playoff series
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Henri is probably vaccinated
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yeah I don't see those crazy west bends happening either.
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Yup...and I still don't think this west shift is done. Really not finding much reason to believe otherwise. If we don't see a shift east with 0z tonight I don't think it will happen b/c with the special 18z balloon launches going on (if that is still a thing) you would think the ulvl trough is going to be sampled very well plus the 0z balloon launches.
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Also a couple members going happy in their pants
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Still with a big shift west.
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what products are you looking at to see tilt/stacked system?
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It's such a tough situation b/c you either have to play it up or downplay it right now...there is no in between. By the time we truly know how impactful or un-impactful this will be it will be too late to communicate and too late for people to prepare. That is the scariest part about tropical systems up this way...the lead time to properly prepare is just too little.
