weatherwiz

I’d be stunned if we don’t see additional development as the front gets a bit closer. The HRRR isn’t showing much but I just don’t buy it. 18z 3km NAM backed off a bit but still is a bit more than the HRRR. Given the degree of CAPE/shear I’d be shocked.

I think there is still some CIN in place which may explain the lack of additional development. would think though we should start seeing stuff pop quickly off to the West over the next 60-minutes. If that doesn't happen then it probably won't.

Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. And now we will get several TORs

IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT.

Hodographs are forecast to become more straight as the afternoon progresses, however, this is something to watch which we lacked last week. If any mid-level mesocyclone becomes established there would be a higher than usual potential for a tornado today. Given the favorable low-level parameters (shear/CAPE/LCL's) low-level vortex could become elongated and interact with mid-level cyclone and voila...TOR

Watch out!!!

We may actually get a few hours of good heating. Nothing developing behind the garden sprinkler moving through CT. POU looks like they're reporting mostly sunny

We live downstream of where it all begins and we seldom get EML's in here to provide a cap and erode crap.

This is where the bulk of activity is going to likely start and fire off. It does look like there may be some room to thin clouds out a bit and get some additional heating. CAMs still pretty inconsistent with how everything evolves which makes it tough. I'm still leaning towards widespread storms across Connecticut which may strengthen as they move towards E CT

With 3000 J/KG of MUCAPE and hail CAPE ~400-500 J/KG there may be some prolific CG's with stuff today...especially the more intense action.

It's best to keep two hands on the wheel

Severe Watch coming soon. Was actually wondering if there would be debate for a TOR

Yeah that drying up is a good thing...but also a bad thing because latent heat release could act to further weaken the mid-level lapse rates a bit more but actually they looked to have steepened some. Makes sense for them to do so though as we do have CAA aloft in the mid-levels as the trough/subsequent height falls approach.

There is some legit dewpoint pooling going on. LCL's have actually lowered quite a bit. 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE with 45-55knots of bulk shear to go along with 150-200 m2s2 of effective helicity and 100+ m2s2 of sfc-500m helicity. If anything robust develops in that environment it could go to town. Have to watch southern VT/NH and western MA the next few hours

NAMNST (3km NAM whatever the hell you want to call it) is quite wild today. I have very mixed feelings with this model, but when it goes wild I think you need to take note. Its output makes sense based on the parameters and setup.

Already 2000 J/KG of MLCape region wide which is pretty remarkable for the time of day. Very tough to get MLCAPE values that high with weak mid-level lapse rates, but this is being compensated by dewpoints which are in the 74-77F range. We are pretty capped right now though which is very good, otherwise I think we would see lots of crap going up. With 45-55 knots bulk shear over the region and the high dews we don't need much heating to get things going. Solid height falls through the day and good shortwave support. May be able to see some widespread wind damage from CT into RI and E MA to the coast later on.

The HRRR I think can be tossed. Very inconsistent with how things unfold. Maybe it will get a better handle in the upcoming hours.

When shear is as strong as it is you don't need full heating or max instability to generate severe weather. While the cloud cover will certainly be one factor negating a more widespread severe weather event it won't completely kill the potential. What we'll probably see today is a few small clusters or lines which produce a swath of damage each.

Yeah regardless of any error the longevity of temperatures that high is still quite impressive. Outside of using 100 as a benchmark, it terms of impressiveness (speaking again on the duration here) there is no difference between a bunch of 98 and 99's vs. 100 or 101's. I've always wondered just how much influence a dry/wet ground has on overall temperature potential but you have to wonder if that is playing some role. During this stretch EWR is routinely overshooting MOS/NBM by as much as 3-5F.

As long as we don't get alot of crap we should be able to maintain those 2-6km lapse rates. Based on satellite we should be able to get some good pockets of heating which will help to steep low-level lapse rates as well. Thinking this is going to turn into a Pike South day. northern Connecticut on east may be best spot today.

Pretty good DCAPE values and steep 2-6kkm lapse rates present. There may be room for a good swath of wind damage today

or the mid-Atlantic...remember there were some runs showing like 105-110 into the Carolina's

I think the tornado potential is rather low, but we should be able to see supercells early on in development but hodographs become more straight as opposed to curved as the day progresses (maybe some splitters?). DCAPE though running decently high though (800-1000 J/KG) so damaging winds is certainly the main hazard here.

Unfortunately I can't do much, if any, chasing today. I may get lucky and be able to do BDL after my dentist appointment depending on timing.

Should see a few pretty nasty storms today. Seems like extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates will hold overall potential back a bit but if any cell can become mature enough and generate a strong enough updraft that can maintain...oof.