weatherwiz

At least (I guess) it seems apparent that if the PV does split one piece will end up displaced over southern Canada. The northern tier of the country is going to be a breeding ground for storms in that case...and given the southern stream looks to remain active you phase any rotating piece of energy with that southern stream and you're going to get some big coastal's (at least potential). But regardless of southern stream involvement or phasing...there are going to be plenty of chances within that northern stream. The Arctic airmass pretty much gets displaced with the Arctic with the Arctic being replaced by a modified combination of cT/mT air

I actually had a dream last night there was a MASSIVE high risk...spanned like ND/SD all the way into New England.

that too.

Talk about a roller coaster weather pattern moving through the first week of January. It's pretty ridiculous..on both extremes with the the degree of cold across the PAC NW and parts of the northern Plains and GFS getting mid 50's dews as far north as IN/IL with 60's into the TN Valley. These next few weeks will have it all...record warmth, record cold, blizzards, high end severe events...don't just buckle up around your waist, buckle your chest thing too.

meh if we're going to do ice may as well go all out and get 0.75''+ ice accretion

I don't think I've had thundersnow since 2015...or maybe even 2013. that needs to change

Thank God those maps tend to overdo freezing rain totals. Probably b/c it's using accumulated QPF vs. accretion (?)

It's continuing to become more and more clear that there is one helluva gradient pattern that is going to become established. If we can cash in on that we could get smoked. The pattern will be extremely active and there is just so much available moisture. Not only that but we would be feeding some high theta-e (for the time of year) into any potential systems. On the other hand, for as cold as it will be north of the gradient it will be just as warm moving south of the gradient so we could easily be more influenced by warm air and warmer systems. The degree of baroclincity is going to be super high (which has lots of positives but will have some negatives as well).

sneaky, sneaky. I remember times in the past we're all invested in some D6-8 potential then all of a sudden something pops D2-3 and gears changed more quickly than a Nascar

In these types of patterns it's usually something that pops up 2-3 days out as opposed to something being signal 6-7 days out.

WTF is even the ICON (besides garbage)? Is it an American-based model?

It's hard to resist the temptation...especially when you're waiting for that first storm of the season. I'm trying real hard not to get invested so early in the game...makes the pain a bit better when nothing actually happens

At least we know May 1 is coming and can count on it.

Wait...today is only Tuesday. Wy am I getting hopes up or excited for something the day after Christmas...5 days away...in this type of pattern

Ice, Ice Baby

There's just so many freaking shortwaves...at some point one of these need to work out...?

Not if Pete Carroll was coaching. He could be at the 1 yard line with a blinding blizzard occurring and would still elect to pass

Sure does...but verbatim heaviest may be MA Pike into CT (but that's pointless right now).

The GFS would be a MA Pike south crushing.

Seems like there is a bit of a displacement between more favorable ulvl dynamics and where the baroclinic zone exists? but instead of ejecting northeast as a more consolidated system it kinda has the appearance of just an open strung out piece of garbage wave. Very weird...I don't think the low ever really materialized. It looks like a hot mess. I was shocked to see the TOR watch when I hoped on this morning. I think there is dry air being wrapped into the low. Strange

That's what I would figure too. It's not like this is an explosive area of convection either but there might be enough convective processes going on which is completely throwing off the NAM. but the NAM is completely shredding that southern energy apart.

It is funny looking but it might not be far off. The main low across FL is quite a bit farther south than forecast models had indicated this would track. For example, TPA has been reporting NE winds since yesterday evening. Models (as late as 12z yesterday) had TPA predominately S winds then becoming NW as the low departed...indicating the sfc low was going to be tracking north of them. But it would appear the NAM tracks this sfc low directly off to the NE and probably far enough to limit any phasing. Models initially had this tracking NE just off the GA/SC coast and not hugging the coast but still close enough to the NE coast to get some phasing.

Good I hope we keep above-average SST's through the winter and start racking up 80's in March so the water's are nice and toasty for the early part of severe season

6z GFS bufkit for KCAR. Now this is sexy. what a beautiful cross hair signature. Actually much more intense than the NAM too

starting to see some big differences arise with the southern stream s/w on the 18z NAM moving through tomorrow evening. Given the degree of convection that may unfold across Florida that's actually not too surprising