weatherwiz

I agree...I think any sort of troughs we see here would be more transient than sustaining. I think though we could be primed for a pattern change moving towards mid-October and that might feature a sustained period of below-average temperatures with active weather. Lots of noise in the medium-to-long range which seems indicative that we are seeing the hemisphere transition from summer to fall (and eventual winter). Noticing though we really may start to see changes with the jet configuration across the western Pacific...lots of wave breaking being modeled and momentum deposit into the high latitudes. Another thing to watch too are the signals for these tropical waves of the Southeast U.S. coast when become pretty strong and get shot north.

Quite a bit of uncertainty towards the end of the month and the first week of October. Not that this would be totally unusual for this period but I envision sort of a rollercoaster type pattern where we alternate well above-average with near or slightly below-average temperatures (although what will happen is we are either going to be well above-average or somewhat below-average...don't think there is a middle ground). You can see the huge spread quite well just by looking at NAO forecasts alone. There are some hints though we could get some pseudo-blocking. Hell...even uncertainties with what happen across the West...huge spread in the PNA signal too.

I had a dream last night there was some crazy system working through the deep south and parts of AL and FL were going to get snow...in September

I saw a flash of lightning on my way to work this morning!!! It was fork lightning

Lack of stronger s/w forcing probably was a big factor too. The bulk of the s/w forcing was in SE Canada...which can usually benefit NNE but it was a bit farther north into Canada. If the stronger height falls were a bit quicker I bet it would have made a difference. Just too much of a disconnect between sfc front and upper-level forcings

One thing of note today was how poor the llvl lapse rates were. Obviously a product of lack of sun and strong sfc heating but it's very difficult to get widespread high wind event with poor llvl lapse rates...especially when the shear alone isn't anything overly through the roof

Don't count your chickens before they shit

Not bad indeed

We may see some heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms move across the state but don't think we really see much else...in fact, they may weaken considerable as they move across the state. Everything outruns the better forcing and dynamics

Yeah good point...and actually looking at potential storm motions that may hinder the TOR potential too. Winds only continue to veer too with height moving through the day

@Damage In Tolland for the confused face... referring to not a good sign for severe weather within that extensive watch area across NY/PA. I think the real severe threat is going to best east of that watch.

3km CAPE is quite impressive already and looks like CIN eroding rather quickly. I think the best severe potential is well east of where the watch currently is. I see the new MCD out...kinda shocked it doesnt indicate TOR watch possible given the environment.

Already looks like the sfc front is pretty much nearing the line of TCU/showers across NY/PA...not a very good sign

That is certainly a great point and another piece which certainly needs to be considered.

The last decade has been rather intriguing regarding severe weather, both locally and nationally. It's very difficult, however, to draw any type of conclusions because the dataset regarding severe weather is not only small but the degree of accuracy is even smaller. What we have seen this past decade is; 1. "Tornado Ally" has shifted a bit east...for so many years the Great Plains were considered the tornado home of the U.S. but last decade there has been a sharp increase just along/east of the Mississippi River to the Appalachian Mountains. 2. A decrease in strong/violent tornadoes (obviously there have been some monsters) 3. An increase in "out of season" tornadoes across the Northeast region and even nocturnal tornadoes...but thankfully the majority of these tornadoes have remained weak (of course we have some exceptions). But if we continue to see these themes of higher dewpoint air and higher dewpoint air occurring earlier in the season and later in the season we will continue to see an increase in these "out of season" setups.

I haven't been storm chasing in like 3 years...sucks. And I mean like real chasing...waking up and like 6 AM and driving out to like New York or Pennsylvania and setting up shop. I don't count my trips to BDL because well I live 2 minutes from there. I mean there was that time a month or so ago my friend and I went deep into Massachusetts. I've been wanting to go to the Plains now that I have excess vacation time but...THEY DON'T GET SEVERE WEATHER ANYMORE

Looks like just a really narrow corridor for severe potential should a line materialize. DCAPE is pretty good within the area of the MCD but it's not like llvl flow is very strong and llvl lapse rates are quite poor (though should steepen locally where stronger heating occurs).

Yeah clouds may really kill things up that way...much better down this way in terms of the cloud department but really not much for convection down here. Better instability will be displaced from the better dynamics/forcing.

It also appear all the best ingredients become a bit displaced as the day goes on. The best (llvl shear) moves out through the early afternoon and the best ulvl dynamics remain well west while the sfc cold front looks to plug east. Convective coverage too may be a bit of a question. I think we'll see some significant localized severe but would it be enough to warrant or "verify" an enhanced?

Certainly can't rule out severe storms nearing Boston...highly dependent on where/when any discrete cells form west and whether they try and evolve into a small line segment and push towards BOS

I am not. Quite the complex setup today. Best chance for any severe probably with any discrete cells which form across NNE. Not sure we see much from a convective line...looks like the sfc front may undercut convection.

I was wondering how that worked. I was stunned when I didn't even get charged for labor. I saw no charge and I said, "not even for labor" and the guy said, "It's a Honda problem so they have to deal with it". Glad to know they get reimbursed...I was worried about them just doing this work and not getting anything for it

Have a recall on something in my car and it's getting replaced (for free) today. Never really done that before...do you like tip them at all?

The 90's seemed to offer quite a bit in terms of squall lines...squall lines which could approach the CT River and then POOF weaken in the blink of an eye...this would disappoint time and time again. I just remember watching the radar on TWC and it seemed several times each summer we would get these massive squall lines from like Maine down through Maryland that would just slide east.

yeah looks more fun to our west (shocker)