weatherwiz

Rotation is getting stronger too

Confirmed on the ground.

Holy crap on NJ near Trenton

most exciting thing is the transient rotation ~Milford

I know neither were supposed to...just illustrating that's what is going on and there isn't a heck of a lot popping up outside of what is currently moving across CT. Anything probably going to be rather isolated. Going to bust rather low on the rain side too with this

I suppose if stuff fires up but the radar is not very impressive. There's the heavy area of rain sliding across eastern NY into VT/NH which misses us then you have the rain with embedded supercells sliding east from PA to NJ and ticking CT coast. with the heaviest sliding to our south

Actually CT may be done by like 8 PM

well into the night is like 2-3 AM.

For CT it's not well into the night. For areas east of here it is...especially out by the Cape. That's where the best severe potential exists in SNE.

A taste of fall tomorrow night

overnight into early Friday??? Everything is out of here by mid-to-late evening...at the latest

There is a quite a bit of 3km CAPE around though greatest is SW. The window for that potential seems pretty small with that wall of precip off to the west...that's what is going to kill things. There is activity developing ahead of that batch but the best shear is still well west.

with any severe wx chances well SW of CT.

Should at least be quite the light show for some tonight...especially out east

Cape area stands the best chance

Yes plenty of spin/shear but you need some sort of sufficient CAPE in the layer to utilize it.

Should see some nasty storms down across SE PA but that's about it. Some heavy rain and embedded thunder for us...best light show probably out by Cape. Marginal should be dropped here at some point.

It all evolves through the afternoon and majority is off to our east by mid-to-late evening with maybe some isolated stuff overnight

Tomorrow essentially going to evolve into a heavy stratoform rain with embedded thunder. Probably going to see some flash flooding. Severe threat is well SW of here

You need sfc-based instability for any type of tornado threat. You don't necessarily need sfc-based instability for wind damage potential but you need llvl instability otherwise lack of instability can be more indicative of an inversion which limits downward transport. If we can get MUCAPE values > 1000-1500 J/KG and get decent CAPE in the hail growth zone the light show would be pretty great and there would be a risk for hail.

We never truly warm sector. The dynamics are there to help with storm organization but we are really lacking instability...sufficient instability. It's really difficult for us to maintain nocturnal severe potential without the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates or steepening mid-level lapse rates aided by CAA in the mid-levels. Our temperatures tomorrow barely get to 80 and our dewpoints probably only into the lower 60's (if that) so we are not going to generate much instability and any instability will quickly wane after sunset. We are going to need to see a significant bump north to have any severe potential here...especially for any talk of TOR potential. BL seems way too stable for that potential here.

May see that Slight risk area trimmed south (maybe even see the southern portion of the risk area expanded south a bit) and I think we see the marginal area trimmed well south with the 1730z update

Going to depend on instability but right now it appears the best instability is just to our south. Even elevated instability up this way isn't super impressive. The dynamics are certainly quite impressive which will help keep convection going. If anything, eastern Mass/Cape might be the best spot to be.

Maybe a long-tracked tornado from Wisconsin later today can survive the journey into SNE