weatherwiz

31 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

What do you think Wiz 4pm its hits your area?

Much sooner…probably more like 3:00-3:15 Just got to BDL from Springfield!

Crap RadarScope keeps crashing 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s some serious wording. You don’t typically see 75mph gusts mentioned 

This is going to be some serious stuff. Probably see lots of power outages too. Maybe winds in the lower-levels are just a tad bit weak for crazy widespread but those lapse rates are very steep plus the updrafts are looking robust. This is also crossing CT at prime heating

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can see the beginnings of a derecho starting 

This could rival a serial derecho but may end up falling short of official criteria. We are primed for widespread damaging winds with this 

Looks like we’ll see 100-125+ 3km CAPE with 3km lapse rates 7-8 C/KM. Strong signal for widespread damaging winds 

Shaping up to be a big afternoon. Steep mlvl lapse rates and llvl lapse rates, strong shear, just enough moisture. Going to see lots of wind damage 

Let’s see if we can muster up something today 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like a bust ?

Gotta watch that convective cell south of Long Island...that may head towards New Haven/Branford/Clinton areas over the next 30-45 min. 

Then need to watch the low-topped line as it works through central/eastern CT. It will encounter higher dewpoint/theta-e air and greater instability. 

Dewpoints now into the lower 60's across southern CT. Strong convection south of Long Island. Radar sampling 70-80+ mph winds only a few thousand feet above the ground. Won't take much to mix into that given these dewpoints/llvl CAPE. 

Should see lower 60's dews get into at least parts of CT, RI, SE MA over the next few hours. HRRR (per mesoanalysis) suggesting >175-200 J of 3km CAPE as well. 0-1km shear is pretty high. If any updrafts can tap into these we may see a few brief spinners today 

Yet another late-season severe setup which has become a bit more of a common occurrence the past several years. Strong southerly flow will transport unseasonably moist air into the region with dewpoints potentially climbing into the lower 60's ahead of the cold front. This should contribute to 150-200 J/KG of 3km CAPE...more than sufficient for the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorms given the degree of wind shear aloft. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible from late morning through late afternoon across the region. 

11 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I think the IO is one of the most underplayed influences in long range forecasting. Meteorologically still more to be discovered but it is a known driver of the NPAC jet which obviously has downstream impacts. 

I think so too. Maybe it doesn’t have a strong correlation to a specific region or area but if you’re looking to study long range and teleconnections you need to have an understanding of impacts on the global level…but just local b/c at the end of the day the global scale impacts the local scale 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will delve into the Indian ocean at some point...was going to so it for this year, but didn't up doing it with Africa and everything.

Maybe next year...

Indian Ocean definitely has my interest as well and something I want to study more. In fact, I want to do much more with that area of the globe...not just for seasonal forecast but for long-range (talking 7-21 days) winter forecasting as well. I think that if we have a strong understanding of how models are performing across eastern Asia and the Pacific and how the PAC may begin to deviate there...that can give us immense clues about what we can anticipate here. This kinda gets into things like the AAM and mountain torques. 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, take the under on that lol, but this will not be last season. You should make a run at 100", anyway...

Do you do much research or exploring other teleconnections or do you mostly focus on ENSO/Arctic/QBO/MJO? 

Just curious b/c with your ability I think you would be able to make some great findings. 

This is impeccable work, Ray! As I've said to you before, your ability to not only present your thoughts, but do so in a way that the reader can become educated is a true talent. I've always had a tremendous interest in long-range forecasting but over the past several-plus years I just haven't had time (or energy) to do much with it. I've read through the EP La Nina's portion of your outlook (so I have much more to go) and wanted to share some thoughts. 

I share the same view OHweather pointed out in which you took a closer look at why some Nina's were colder and why some were warmer. This is extremely critical (IMO) to the understanding of ENSO events and to the understanding of what may be in the driver seat each event. While a composite of all years will provide you insight of what may be "typical" or the "averaged outcome" each event has its own flavor and it's important to understand that. You explored this, analyzed this, and portrayed this beautifully. 

I also absolutely loved how you used the lines on the STA maps to illustrate where the core of the anomalies were located in relation to the ENSO regions to indicate where in the region the event was based...this is brilliant lol. I've been trying to find ways to illustrate this better for my own studies and never thought of this (I may have to steal that idea  ). 

There is certainly lots to digest here...tons to digest which is a beautiful thing because if there is anyone interested in not only long-range forecasting but understanding so many of the global drivers and teleconnections the best place to go if your outlook because you're going to learn tons...I just learned a tremendous amount myself. 

As always, great work!

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Did you post your winter outlook yet? 

Found it...was on the main side

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I printed all of the seasonal totals for my 15 forecast locales yesterday on the Cornell site...use "the wet season" April-October.

Did you post your winter outlook yet? 

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve actually already done this for larger storms for every season going back to 1950 iirc. It’s on my PC but it prob hasn’t been updated for the last couple seasons. I’ll have to post it when I’m back on my PC.

I remember running frequencies of 6+ and 12+ storms at the major climo sites. 

That's super amazing work. Understanding the frequencies and occurrence of events each season is huge IMO. I think we get way too fixated on "the pattern looks great" and set expectations way too high. Sure there is a reason why we have those thoughts...because such patterns have produced before but at the end of the day it's a massive bias because we remember the times the patterns produced (and have documented results) but what we really don't have are the times the production wasn't there. This type of philosophy can be applied year round as well. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You can do this just by doing an Oct-Apr daily data lookup on climod2 or the https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org site and looking at the snowfall column. It’s not super fast since you have to keep changing the year to look at other winters but it’s pretty easy. 

This is sick, thanks! 

It would be awesome to compile a breakdown of how many "storms" have occurred each cold season (obviously you would have to establish several definitions here) and then you can assess the pattern averaged seasonally and then break things down further from there...down to a monthly level and then maybe weekly level. 

I wish we had such a better database regarding winter storms. And by that I mean more organized. Not only that but obviously you have the discrepancies and lots of lost data from the mid-90's to the early 2000's. 

Anyways if there was some sort of database where you can click on a winter season and acquire a list of every single storm/event (including totals) having such information I think could go a substantial way in long-range forecasting (pertaining to winter). 

While there has been a ton of success with various methods out there relying heavily on analogs, or making a base comparison based on ENSO phase can only go far. I also wish there was a better breakdown of the many indices which exist instead of these "monthly averages". They're fine and good and all but they aren't going to highlight or address short-term phase changes and that is what is most important. 

One example is the WPO which has a very strong correlation to the pattern configuration from the Pacific through North America and you can even argue it may even drive some of the northern hemisphere teleconnections. The WPO can also go through some wild swings on a seasonal basis. 

We are really due for a -WPO winter. The last winter that we had a predominately -WPO was 2013-2014. 

Power outages down into the 270,000's so some definite progress. 

5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I wonder why nationally October has been such an active tornado month relative to last spring and summer?

We've had some pretty impressive systems digging into the West with unseasonably warm/moist conditions from the central U.S to the East. 

Saturday as low topped coastal superell/TOR potential 

Power outages slowly, slowly, slowly ticking down.