weatherwiz

There could be a window of opportunity for a severe weather event the first weekend of June. Trough digging into the west with our region on the northern periphery of the southeast ridge. That could offer some room for EML advection (though don't necessarily like the look...think it would become muted) but we would have a decent westerly flow aloft.  

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Played in the desert heat of Las Vegas because they are isolating all the teams in one city with enough hotel rooms and facilities to house the entire tournament

I was shocked Chicago was listed as a potential hub city given how the situation is in IL.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Then you should try it. And then run your hand or a damp cloth along the window sill and furniture and see how yellow it is 

I actually will try that. I install window fan later on. 

I don't think I've ever heard of window fans drawing in pollen...I mean unless you're sucking the air straight from the trees or you have a tree right outside your window 

I can picture it now...September 2. Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals...some west team at Boston Bruins...hurricane salted to hit New England 

Computer forecast models have been in strong agreement in a vigorous shortwave trough amplifying through New England yielding quite an anomalous pool of cold air aloft characterized by 500mb temperatures as low as -25C. While llvl moisture will be sufficiently lacking (dew points mainly in the 30's to 40's), the combination of very steep lapse rates (~7.5 C/KM) and daytime heating will contribute weak destabilization with MLCAPE values around 250-500 J/KG. This should be enough to spark off scattered showers and t'storms each afternoon with the attendant risks of gusty winds and hail. On Tuesday when the brunt of the air mass moves overhead, there could even be some flakes in the mountainous areas of northern New England! Lack of moisture will likely inhibit potential for severe hail. 

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... it was a heavy-handed dark satirical take. Unfortunately, like all humor, does carry a modicum of truth/reality - 

I don't know. We've also had more tor events and reporting in recent years - probably owing to the fact there is more popularization to drama and natural events ... lending to more pervasive public awareness. I mean, in 1953, I've read accounts where it was clear, those watching had no f'ing clue what they were seeing; comparing the generations of lore and the general culture back then, where/when public notification policies were formulated, to now?  The world is a different place... the general ability to access 'wall cloud' images and film, and just have an inkling is a presumption at this point.

It's more likely that a guy can identify a suspicious real-time cloud motion/pattern in the sky, and then ...a town loses ten trees and a roof .. a calved off church steeple, next to a soccer field where some handsome athlete(s) gets injured, and his/or her negligent law-accessing, self-absolving unscrupulous parents ultimately raise taxes for everyone to pay for their conversion of that kid's health and vitality into a monetary settlement ... when if they had not assume their asses would be wiped in every turn of their f'n reality and bothered to check the forecast they might have not had their kid on the field at 5:10 pm in 84/67 with a 120 kt 500 mb jet fisting in from the west.... 

you know ... So, the same sky is producing the same shit it did in 1955 

I certainly agree the level of awareness has vastly increased; both with reporting and just an overall understanding of convective events and certain setups which can be "sneaky". I mean let's face it, probably a good amount of our tornadoes don't happen from those textbook setups...often time some brief/weak spinner of a high shear/low CAPE type day. I certainly understand the need to want to sniff those out, however, I think they are becoming overplayed...whereas anytime those type of setups arise the mention of tornadoes occur. I don't think there is anything wrong with that, but that doesn't mean it has to be conveyed to the public. Another big driver is the use now of UD helicity charts and the STP chart...which I think are becoming akin to model snow maps. Folks see an area of high UD helicity or high STP and automatically believe it correlates to tornado potential...I don't believe that. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's because we live in an overtly litigious culture, that's why.

You take civility of hard working, sacrificing... principled, virtuous people, feed and masturbate them with surplus over the contiguity of generations, eventually the erosion of those ethics is inevitable.  Look everywhere in Humanity's history. It is empirically shown to be unavoidable, whether reflected in cute childhood parables, painted on cathedrals walls and ceilings, or thematically arced in the greatest literary works of all time. Civilities, as an integration of the individuals, eventually sloths when in realms of abundance - invariably loses those ethics that were needed to construct it.

It's part of the catch -22 ... the same power of enginuity is not sustainable?   When in a Universe that never wastes anything as a Natural Law, the ingenuity that it takes to construct a society of relative opulence, no longer is needed once that opulence is experienced. So... the Natural Law kicks in, and the virtue of its sustainability escapes the users; it is not immediately sensed or seen as necessary - an unnecessary use of energy to maintain it - it decays... Cyclic that way, I suppose.  So, what is materializing out of it all this, other than a cocktail of events that signal an eventual end to civility as we know it, is a population of participation-trophy-seeking, self-aggrandizing entitled nimrods - sound familiar? 

A little tongue-in-cheekism there... But, if people rolled up sleeves ( or had to...) in life, and earned their figurative orgasms ...they'd be more humble and forgiving, and in realization of the stench of their own - as is?  They believe they don't have to smell their own shit - sloppy metonymy for being disconnected from the foundation of their luxuries. 

We've come to use the law to protect this delusion of expectancy and entitlement that results.. that's why.  It's part of the decay of society, a sign of civility in trouble when litigious self-absorption starts dictating and codifying policy - 

In the 'tornado paradigm' people have succeeded in monetary winfals by mashing up law with dumb-down 'juries of our peers' ... leading to plaintiff cash-ins. So, the policy has to now overstate those threats. It's a "disclaimer defense against the tsunamis of the feckless".   Greedy developers build a communities on a flood plains and tornado lab landscapes, and then in rush the me-first, multi-generational, convenience addled-stupefied cultural folk of blinded lust home-buyers. Inevitable flood comes, and the the feckless folk that didn't have the virtue or the patience therein to vet general risk assessment ( let alone circumstantially in a position to even suspect risk at all) .. don't have to worry - there's this litigation to save their asses.  

 

This was...an interesting take haha. 

7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Thinking we might be able to get away with a mostly dry Friday in ern SNE. We need as many dry Fridays and Saturdays as we can get. 

yeah I'm not sure why the general t'storm risk covers the entire region. And there goes the SPC with mentioning tornado in the discussion. I swear...it seems every single convective setup we have now the word tornado gets mentioned. I do agree with the marginal to our west...certainly could see some damaging winds (likely in the form of downbursts as cores collapse). 

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

In 4 weeks we start to lose daylight, Man time flys by.

I propose to ban this guy 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Hottest day of the warm season today for NNE?

Could certainly see quite a few lower 90's. 

I wonder if this is the summer we get a derecho...like a true derecho...flattening forests and trees across the entire region and sending roofs into the Atlantic 

7 minutes ago, radarman said:

Just a gut feeling but it's a little early for fronts to be hanging up and training I think, especially with this bully airmass that'll be dropping in.  I think it'll push through a little faster than progged with an attendant wind threat.  If it does stay back we'd at least have a shot at something discrete popping out ahead during the afternoon, which we always say... For whatever it's worth.

I've had this same exact thought as well Friday when I was looking ahead to the end of the week. I was really shocked how it looked like the front would not only get hung up but perhaps even wash out. Seemed odd to have that so early in the season. But looked like there was some strong ridging just off to our east...and a bit anomalous so thought perhaps the idea was legit. Perhaps we can get a pre-frontal trough this go around...that would help nicely 

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

maybe can't rule out some kind of popcorn  pulsers with enough solar insulation and totally uncapped.  Big fat rain drops that so look like they want to flip to hail, but then don't.

Anyway, we can still cheer on hopes for a marginally severe line on Friday in the meantime.

My worry would be lack of moisture...would like to at least see dewpoints in the mid-50's. 

But for Friday...looks better perhaps for upstate NY into northern New England. Probably see an unorganized line consisting of pulse-type t'storms that are slow moving...maybe flash flooding potential? 

This really might be a garbage severe season 

You would think we could at least muster a solid cold pool convective event from that setup...but nope. ughhhhhh

That is a sick ridge building into the SW...looks like LAS could push 110 come Wednesday. 

Looks like though we're just going into full summer-pattern across the country. Cut-off low across the southern Plains likely leading to some flooding issues but the jet goes into Canada. Despite the warm/humid weather here this week convective chances are meh and severe chances even more meh. Outside of that cut-off stuff in the southern Plains pretty meh across the country in terms of severe...just typical daytime heating driven convection. Guess it's a good thing I'm not going to OK. Think for next year we'll go in April.

I don’t get the watch into CT

Well here's the 18z ALB sounding...looks like perhaps would be some potential for splitting supercells that way

Heights also been kinda neutral here...don't fall until later. The idea of these pre-squall line supercells is not looking good 

Tough to tell but looks like a sea breeze racing north through CT 

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like the marine layer is trying to push back westward along coastal ME/NH/MA on vis sat.

Quite a bit of MLCIN in those areas and even through E CT

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

What time does SPC update the convective outlook.  Must be soon?

~12:30

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

And the 60s dews are coming...it’s early.

Yup! pushing on the doorstep now

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR tears big renegade storms across CT later this afternoon. That’s our hope. Tonight’s will just be a light show

Those aren't supercells. They're just crap to only get people excited. 

I bet by next update they retract the slight quite a bit. My guess is they have it for the potential for discrete ahead of the main line but meh. Still looks like there will be a nice line into western MA and perhaps NW CT with some damaging wind gusts.