weatherwiz

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Typically these things almost always speed up on timing .. I can’t recall many that ended up slower . What looks like 10:00 Pm May end up 4-7

I'm thinking 7-11 I agree these things usually speed up on timing but in those instance we have a pre-frontal trough driving the convection. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It should shift south and East tomorrow with the faster timing. My guess is you’ll see the nam start moving that way tonight and NW MA to S VT to S NH will have little to nothing with the threat south of there down to about 95

faster timing? Don't think the faster timing idea happens. This convection is all actually looking to be associated with the cold front itself. Which is actually a little...uncommon (maybe not the right word) but don't even see much of a pre-frontal trough signal which is what usually sparks off the convection anyways. The cold front doesn't come close to us until late evening. We are going to see weakening llvl lapse rates due to loss of heating and the overall look to me doesn't really scream enough wind damage for the enhanced risk. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a rapid increase in the LLJ after like 22z in ern NY and adjacent western MA and VT. That is something to watch. It's got a chunk of decent theta-e, so a potential quick destabilization in those areas. Obviously cloud cover and exact storm formation is key, but there are some decent ingredients. NAM looked impressive in those areas as far as kinematics go.

that's going to be the exact area to watch...relatively small area too. That's where the greatest and really only tornado potential exists I think.

I do think though the enhanced either gets removed or trimmed significantly...all of CT removed, a large part of MA, and even trimmed from VT/NH and bring the slight down to where the enhanced is in those areas. 

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Trash threat 

I am still boggled by the enhanced 

Twitter is absolute trash. People bringing up 5/15/18 to tomorrow b/c it’s the same day. THEY SHOULDN’T BE MENTIONED IN THE SAME SENTENCE. They are nowhere near the same type of setup...not even close. Who gives a fook if it’s the same day. Stupid stupid stupid 

5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Rising heights, no lapse rates, meh

Well they fall when the front approaches but yeah lapse rates aren’t anything to sneeze at

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A MURDER HORNET JUST FLEW IN MY CAR...I’m going to die

Got it out!!!

A MURDER HORNET JUST FLEW IN MY CAR...I’m going to die

11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Better start cheering on the HRRRv4 as it is much better timed than the NAM (3 & 12 km).

The HRRR is on the fast train regarding timing. 

I a little surprised by the enhanced really...not sure I see wind damage being that widespread...kinda hard to get really good widespread wind damage with rather steep llvl lapse rates 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

OV/MAtl

Those mid 50s dews start advecting into SNE by sunrise just aloft at 925. Anyone still dealing with residual cooler sfc air should have that mix out pretty quickly. Then we pool it up a bit more as the day goes on.

Gotcha. 

Well if we can get dews around 65 that will at least help boost instability given lapse rates won't be too great. 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I could see some 65-66F dews.

Sort of advecting in from the OV? That might be what I was overlooking...source region 

38 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

No EML in this particular set up I presume?

No EML. Lapse rates will be ehhh. 

16 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Was thinking similar, overdone.

Random obs, it also put dewpoints 65-70 around Springfield/Hippy Valley. 

yeah those dews aren't happening lol

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR going wild with SUPs south of the warm front and seemingly weak trigger. That looks strange to me?

The HRRR would be borderline localized tornado outbreak but yeah that looks strange to me as well. It does develop some pretty high CAPE with not much of a cap so perhaps that's the reason? But I just don't see enough support (trigger) for that scenario. 

The HRRR also seems to have a bias with WF supercells 

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

3km nammy does a pretty good job of suppressing action out ahead of the front as Wiz mentioned for lack of a trigger.  Weak height rises during the course of the entire day.  Granted it does get fairly unstable. 

I wonder if the instability is overdone. Soundings from the 3km NAM show pretty steep mid-level lapse rates which may be overdone. 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k NAM is close to warm sectoring here. It'll probably be relegated to Cheshire/Hillsborough counties though.

Congrats Mitch

SW VT/extreme NW MA could be a really good spot for something but I think the best ingredients are going to go to waste...don't see much of a trigger to generate convection during the afternoon...or at least enough support for deep enough convection to utilize the dynamics aloft. Going to be ugly on the cold side of the front...rain and 50's...yuck

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 Can’t wait for my +RA behind the wedge. 

unless it's an LP supercell 

well my friend and I officially cancelled our trip to OK the end of the month...though we knew this a while back. Guess I'll just have to chase tornadoes around CT. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed

Do you really think we see dewpoints in the 63-65F range? There is model support for it but I am struggling to find any evidence that happens. I can see 61-62 happening. 

Also, I see some on social media going sounding happy and this is something I've noticed and not sure if there is some type of issue with generating soundings but some of the soundings (SHARPpy) people are tossing around have rather high lapse rates and dewpoints and thus throwing out some big CAPE values.

7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

How do the soundings look for NE CT?

Should be enough instability left to keep potential for some damaging wind gusts. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a lot of the action is along warm front and even near backdoor front.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Decent s/w support for storms on the cold front in the evening though. Definitely an interesting day I think. 

Definitely agreed the warm front could be a pretty decent focal point...especially if any convection can form along it. There definitely seems to be at least enough support to keep a line of t'storms moving into the region (even after sunset) but I think the overall greatest potential for severe wx is going to be just west of us...I think timing kinda hurts us. That strong piece of vort tracking into NNE happens just a bit too late. 

It would seem like the greatest chance for any severe associated with the warm front would be mid-to-late afternoon, however, there may not be much overall support for developing convection then. Strongest height falls seem to arrive shortly after the best ingredients would be in place. 

But we should certainly see some scattered wind damage tomorrow!!! 

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

First slight risk of the year..  congrats paul

I am a bit shocked it's so far east. I think the greatest overall potential is to our northwest. What kinda sucks for us is timing but there seems to be enough instability left to keep the threat for damaging winds through the I-84 corridor. 

4 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Some of these parameters are really nice looking but I'm not a huge fan of the lack of stronger ulvl support...at least enough to make things super interesting. 

Been meaning to start this thread since Monday but I was all threaded out. Anyways, severe weather season is starting to get very active around here as we have another threat right around the corner...and this one comes with our first early taste of late spring or early summer as a warm front tickles us and we taste some humidity. Obviously, this early in the season the biggest question is northward warm front progression. It does appear the warm front will at least push into central New England. South of the warm front dewpoints should get into the lower 60's. While not great, mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.5 C/KM. With surface temperatures perhaps pushing into the 70's we should generate enough instability, when combined with ample wind shear to produce the development of t'storms; including the risk for some strong-to-severe t'storms. 

As usual with this type of setup and time of year, the greatest risk will be away from the marine influence. When considering timing of the fropa or pre-frontal trough the greatest potential will likely be eastern PA, southeast NY, southern VT, and western MA/CT. Strong winds aloft, inverted-V sounding signatures, and linear storm mode indicate main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, in the vicinity of the warm front there will be enough backing of the llvl winds to yield the risk of rotation and an enhanced risk for hail or a brief tornado. 

I forgot to start a thread for Friday but I'll do it later. Looks like there could be some damaging wind gusts but greatest threat may be just west of here.