weatherwiz

Got about 60-70 knots at 925 just-offshore. Going to really start cranking in eastern sections even more in the next few hours

Even a bit of a diffuse warm front along the coastal Plain...with a smudge of elevated instability but just of Long Island. 

These winds have me thinking...

Next year when there is a derecho pegged to rip across Iowa I'm taking off from work, going out to Iowa and going into a field and going to build a giant stake and tie myself to it in the path of 100-mph winds. 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HVN already hit 55 today 

woah when? I missed that. 

but these wind forecasts are for overnight 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How do you only have ORH 4mph higher than BDL? I’d up ORH 10-15 mph 

bufkit not very impressive at ORH really 

9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

How about HVN?

54-mph 

My wind forecasts: 

BDL: 48 mph

BOS: 64 mph

ORH: 52 mph 

PVD: 61 mph 

Blue Hills: 82 mph 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ll tickle 45, then tickle yourself. 

We all can have a group tickle session 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'd say we are getting 45 now. It's got the sound where you look out the window. 

It was nice knowing you 

Both NAM and GFS bufkit have pretty strong support for gusts 40-45 knots at BDL tonight. I think BDL rips some gusts between 45-50 for sure. 

I'm saying Blue Hills gusts to 82 mph 

I'll go with 48 mpg for peak gust at BDL 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What you got for BDL? 50-55?

55 may be a bit tough but I think around 50 is very doable. Would probably occur somewhere between maybe 5-8 AM 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

21z rap has like 70 knots at 950mb (not 925mb) on the south shore. Some areas there are gonna get absolutely smoked. Basically 1000 feet off the deck. Pine hills right on the shore there in PYM are prob ground zero. But some of the exposed spots up toward BOS (like Braintree/Weymouth/Marshfield axis) could get hit very hard as well. 

Was just looking at PYM. Looks like strongest winds may be between about 1:00-3:00 AM

34 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

How many outages so far for CT Seversource?

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

yeah that worked out great in Oct 2011 

I feel like that's a misconception that's floated around b/c one fall we had big rainy Nor'easters and happened to get nailed that winter. 

Just like back in the day everyone thought weak La nina's meant big winter's here b/c of 95-96

BDL could have a shot at 55-60 mph gusts. Pretty decent CAA signal as the night progresses. The core of the LLJ though is just east. 

coastal MA is going to get pummeled

9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Ryan’s opinion. Thought he would be a little more into this, but he knows a lot more than me so I trust him here. 

It's eye opening when you look at 925/850 but unfortunately we don't live at those levels. 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kidding, Paul....just bustn' 'em.

Can't wait to get back.

Don't worry...I know haha. Just throwing it back at ya  

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Firstly, you need to take a few more courses if you don't understand that mesoscale convection plays a very prominent role in determining who enjoys the fruits of the atmosphere in the capstone events that we live for as winter enthusiasts. Secondly, the northeast coast is very averse to severe weather relative to the rest of the country due to the stabilizing influence of the ocean.

Zero clue what you're talking about or even getting at.

Enjoy Africa 

maybe even a chance I can do my little walk during lunch! maybe a little break coming...although I might get blown into LIS given these gusts. 

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's perfectly valid in this instance...I can see it with respect to claiming 8" of rainfall would be 80" of snow, but it's perfectly valid here...1-3' blizzard. I get it that ir you're but hurt and spew venom out your rear because SNE does snowfall better than severe, but get over it.

Convective is mesoscale snowfall is synoptic scale...of course snowfall is going to be better. 

I guess it's a good thing there isn't going to be any convection involved. I'm also curious to see how the precipitation shield unfolds as we move through the evening. The initial look screams just a slug of torrential rain region wide being on the NW side of the low with extreme dynamics. However, given the pressure falls you may see precipitation become much more banded and this introduces the development of subsidence zones so there could be some discrepancies in precip across short distances.  

12 NAM has a LLJ max at 850 of 90+ knots into eastern MA 3z tonight...that's nuts 

HRRR continues to really pound the Cape. Could see gusts 80+ on outer parts 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nice blowup of convection about 200 miles SSS of Nantucket last 2hours 

SSS?

Is that magnetic south?