weatherwiz

15 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Euro has a nice svr setup D9 with Cristobal remnants. Lock it

I'm not a big fan of severe set ups associated with tropical remnants...usually have piss poor lapse rates...and I mean piss poor and there's usually some sort of capping in place. Shear usually good though! But the thermodynamic environment (outside of SBCAPE) is pfttttttttttttttttttt

Sweet...I'm glad to finally see a slight risk into PA for today 

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We have had some pretty good scattered severe in Ct the last couple of years.  Hamden tornado etc. Pretty much our climo.

2018 was wild...especially the tornado events we got in September. Severe climo across the country in general though has been a bit off the past several years...hell, this past May I think was historically low in terms of tornadoes. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The glory days are gone:

 

I still remember that day like it was yesterday. The period between 05/29/1998 - 06/02/1998 I bet would be the most active 5-day period of severe in the Northeast on record. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Representative image of daytime severe season in New England:

I can't even see that 

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

We're almost at July?

In the model world...yes

I think we should just cancel severe season...what a freaking joke. Unless we get an active second half of summer but how often does that happen? The majority of our bigger events happen from like mid-to-late May into early July and we're almost at July. The only fun thing about the second half of summer is we can get some nasty nocturnal events but those kinda suck b/c you can't see cloud features. BUST  

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The one you were serving dogs in the basement for?

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

No way it was a 3 yet Great Barrington a 4

I agree...I'm shocked it wasn't rated an EF-4. I mean it was really only 10-mph off that classification. But those damage pics were ridiculous. Hell...it was more of a 4 I think than the Hamden, CT one was. I guess questions about building codes? 

Can't believe it's been 9-years since the EF-3 tornado  

That is some pretty impressive elevated CAPE to our southwest tomorrow night. I am shocked there isn't a Slight across PA...hell I could even argue for an enhanced...could be some pretty big hailers tomorrow night. Perhaps limiting factor is dewpoints but this is a sounding from NE PA...pretty ripe atmosphere for big hailers

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I spend the majority of my time outdoors? 

must be the pollen then 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's hope we see crisp clean Canadian air masses dominate nobody likes the stinky rank high dew foggy wet air being outside. Well check that, those who thrive in AC might

I think the stuffiness of being inside has gotten to you 

Still watching severe wx/EML potential perhaps after weekend...some hints the pattern could favor this but who the hell really trusts these medium range looks

This is going to be a bit hard to do with dewpoints only in the 30's though...so perhaps isolated is the better way to go over scattered. ughhhh only if dewpoints were like in the 50's. We would probably see golf ball hail potential 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe good mixing and limited canopy helping the heat?

Here's the 18z HRRR for BTV...mixing up to nearly 750!

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t get SEMA hopes up. They’ve been let down all too often with faux severe threats. 

That's b/c they get excited for setups which favor NY/PA into western New England lol. 

21 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Sat could be a sneaky downslope dandy if the front clears in the morning. Euro has lingering 850s around 10-12C and west flow

Also can't rule out potential for a strong/severe storm across SE New England...especially along any sea-breeze. 

Scheduling a launch for a late spring afternoon during prime t'storm time and into prime t'storm season... 

I absolutely love the thunderstorms in the distance...the view of towering TCU's in the sky make me tingle all over. Only thing better is when they're over you. 

There could be a window of opportunity for a severe weather event the first weekend of June. Trough digging into the west with our region on the northern periphery of the southeast ridge. That could offer some room for EML advection (though don't necessarily like the look...think it would become muted) but we would have a decent westerly flow aloft.  

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Played in the desert heat of Las Vegas because they are isolating all the teams in one city with enough hotel rooms and facilities to house the entire tournament

I was shocked Chicago was listed as a potential hub city given how the situation is in IL.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Then you should try it. And then run your hand or a damp cloth along the window sill and furniture and see how yellow it is 

I actually will try that. I install window fan later on. 

I don't think I've ever heard of window fans drawing in pollen...I mean unless you're sucking the air straight from the trees or you have a tree right outside your window 

I can picture it now...September 2. Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals...some west team at Boston Bruins...hurricane salted to hit New England 

Computer forecast models have been in strong agreement in a vigorous shortwave trough amplifying through New England yielding quite an anomalous pool of cold air aloft characterized by 500mb temperatures as low as -25C. While llvl moisture will be sufficiently lacking (dew points mainly in the 30's to 40's), the combination of very steep lapse rates (~7.5 C/KM) and daytime heating will contribute weak destabilization with MLCAPE values around 250-500 J/KG. This should be enough to spark off scattered showers and t'storms each afternoon with the attendant risks of gusty winds and hail. On Tuesday when the brunt of the air mass moves overhead, there could even be some flakes in the mountainous areas of northern New England! Lack of moisture will likely inhibit potential for severe hail. 

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... it was a heavy-handed dark satirical take. Unfortunately, like all humor, does carry a modicum of truth/reality - 

I don't know. We've also had more tor events and reporting in recent years - probably owing to the fact there is more popularization to drama and natural events ... lending to more pervasive public awareness. I mean, in 1953, I've read accounts where it was clear, those watching had no f'ing clue what they were seeing; comparing the generations of lore and the general culture back then, where/when public notification policies were formulated, to now?  The world is a different place... the general ability to access 'wall cloud' images and film, and just have an inkling is a presumption at this point.

It's more likely that a guy can identify a suspicious real-time cloud motion/pattern in the sky, and then ...a town loses ten trees and a roof .. a calved off church steeple, next to a soccer field where some handsome athlete(s) gets injured, and his/or her negligent law-accessing, self-absolving unscrupulous parents ultimately raise taxes for everyone to pay for their conversion of that kid's health and vitality into a monetary settlement ... when if they had not assume their asses would be wiped in every turn of their f'n reality and bothered to check the forecast they might have not had their kid on the field at 5:10 pm in 84/67 with a 120 kt 500 mb jet fisting in from the west.... 

you know ... So, the same sky is producing the same shit it did in 1955 

I certainly agree the level of awareness has vastly increased; both with reporting and just an overall understanding of convective events and certain setups which can be "sneaky". I mean let's face it, probably a good amount of our tornadoes don't happen from those textbook setups...often time some brief/weak spinner of a high shear/low CAPE type day. I certainly understand the need to want to sniff those out, however, I think they are becoming overplayed...whereas anytime those type of setups arise the mention of tornadoes occur. I don't think there is anything wrong with that, but that doesn't mean it has to be conveyed to the public. Another big driver is the use now of UD helicity charts and the STP chart...which I think are becoming akin to model snow maps. Folks see an area of high UD helicity or high STP and automatically believe it correlates to tornado potential...I don't believe that.