weatherwiz

That's some pretty strong agreement on the evolution of the pattern moving forward. It's going to get pretty damn hot/humid...but that doesn't necessarily mean we can't or won't see a day or two of relief. Regardless, after what's been a brutal summer in the convective department that pattern screams severe wx potential from the Ohio Valley into even our region. If you're going to get a derecho that's the type of pattern that will do it. Depending on how exactly this evolves perhaps we can sneak a few EML shots our way. I do like how that 700 ridge is building though I think I'd like to see a bit more of a trough digging into the west (just to really eject EML air and have it ride along the ridge).

Pinning down the timing of the heaviest rainfall is pretty brutal but looks like we could see multiple bands or waves of heavy rainfall move through. 

Also, want to reiterate that the BEST potential for any severe convection is not necessarily with this system but Saturday/Sunday PM. 

Now that’s a true warning.

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah maybe Sunday?

If we can get enough heating it could sure be intriguing 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’d rule out severe convection as that sounds a little too menacing. More like one cell that may produce a spinner.

Referring more to PM convection Saturday and Sunday...could see a few isolated severe storms both afternoons 

An area of low pressure is set to emerge off the Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours where environmental conditions are favorable for the emerging low pressure to acquire tropical characteristics and perhaps become our next named system in the Atlantic. While the prospects for a [by definition] tropical system to hit our area, the prospects for impact are vastly increasing. This impact will come in the form of torrential downpours and gusty winds (especially along the coast). 

With not much of a kicker to push the impending system out to sea, the most likely course of action is a track close enough to the coast to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Just how close to the coast will determine where the axis of heaviest rain occurs and where the strongest wind gusts occur (which could be in the 30-45 mph range). Despite how dry it's been, flooding will likely become a problem where the heaviest rainfall occurs. 

Forecast models develop a rather anomalous LLJ for the month of July (in excess of 40 knots) with PWAT values exceeding 2.50'' and theta-e ridge just south of southern New England. All these favor the likelihood for some widespread heavy rainfall. While instability won't be overly large (limited by weak lapse rates), there will be enough instability to yield the potential for embedded t'storms which will only locally enhance rainfall rates. 

The fast overall nature of the heaviest rainfall may limit overall flooding extent. The greatest window for heaviest rain looks to be Friday to early Saturday morning. After Saturday AM attention turns to an approaching front. Wind shear isn't overly strong, but combination of very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, and potential for a plume of steeper lapse rates to advect in could set the stage for scattered t'storms both Saturday and Sunday...including the potential for a few severe t'storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Then...moving forward....we dream of the D as we may party like it's 1995.

Bring it back with a large disclaimer in red....if politics are mentioned or if anyone uses political views/differences as a means for whatever they're trying to do or to attack someone...suspend/ban them. 

I'm dreaming of a nice big D

Derecho that is. Tree toppling, forest destroying, roof tossing derecho!!!!!

OH HELLO THERE YOU SEXY HEIGHTS

You have got to be fooking kidding me. I’m not chasing storms on a highway either. This is absolutely fooked. 

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Aren’t you central CT?

depends on the season 

The SPC should just change the issuance time of the day 2 outlook. It's legit never out by 1730z. May as well change it to 1800z. 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean for my tropical weenie self, the best outcome is something similar to the Euro. Get a coherent 98L center off the SC coast to maximize time for organization and then hook that sucker north. GFS really tries to keep things broad and too close to the coast for any meaningful development.

98L looks surprisingly coherent at the lower levels today despite being this far inland. But it has a long way to go. 

 

I could see this becoming tropical very quickly as it emerges off the coast. I doubt it maintains its tropical characteristics though this far north. Waters are just too cool and I think it's going to take it's time moving north. But we would still want to watch for how this evolves off to our south...perhaps we can get a PRE involved.  

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Tides are totally meh

well that's good. 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah originally it looked like there would be a bit of a kicker to push it OTS but the guidance has been hedging toward more of a hugger if not outright inland solution. Not the prettiest low but I agree on the heavy rain potential. Hopefully we can get a little wind too lol. 

pretty decent LLJ...probably decent pressure gradient too so I'm sure it would be pretty gusty. Not sure of tide situation (in terms of times of high/low tide) but I would wager coastal flooding could be a concern. 

Friday continues to look rather interesting. Really won't have an idea until mid-week when the system gets off the land but should something develop (depending on exactly where) there isn't a whole lot to really knock this out to sea. If anything, I wonder if that subtle (which is just beginning to amplify) shortwave trough is just enough to even tug it back a bit. Anyways, with that ulvl jet strengthening off to our west we could have a decent amount of divergence aloft so there is window for heavy rains. 

15 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Who sees boomers today?

Kinda watching SW CT. Looks like that part of the state will reside on a higher axis of CAPE. Shear isn't overly strong but there is enough to warrant the potential for a severe thunderstorm with large hail and/or damaging winds. The overall greatest threat is just southwest of the region. Can't even rule out into central CT as well. Some boundaries out there to watch. Could be just enough shear to yield broad supercell structures too.

Had an awesome time at Hampton Beach on Thursday. Was so happy Thursday's weather there was perfect b/c it was my girlfriends birthday. We both actually got burned pretty good despite using sunscreen (though I think the fault was using SPF 15). Hell, she even got me to go into the water and I boogie boarded for the first time! Waves were pretty nice. It sucked the weather there sucked Friday...was quite chilly. Saturday was a tad better but still cool. 

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks like someone gets big rains

Potential will be there

GFS brings PWATS to like 2.50''+ to the CAPE Friday. 

Yikes...the second half of July could be pretty ugly if that ridge establishes as advertised by both the Euro and GFS across the south. At least the "drought" concern will be no more...plenty of convective chances and probably days with plenty of clouds by late morning with numerous showers. But that's some ridge in the south...597dm on the Euro...probably even higher too. 

I've had thunder two days in a row  

well off to Hampton Beach until Sunday! Maybe I'll get t'storms there tomorrow!!!!

nasty stuff southern CT

whoops...I had meant to post all that in the banter thread. 

Pretty heavy downpour right now