weatherwiz

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm not sure I'd even call last year a weak El Nino in the sense that we typically compare to other weak Ninos...it was so borderline. It officially made it, but it basically rotted at 0.5C for an eternity.

Weren't the warmest anomalies in region 4? Which I mean technically isn't region 4 more into the region where the WHWP will propagate into? I know how the WHWP propagates can influence ENSO (particularly Nino) but I don't recall the global pattern being very "Nino like" last winter. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, if you think about it....the argument is that global warming is is having a muting effect of warm ENSO events....my train of thought is why would that not serve to augment cool ENSO events.

I get that shorter term stochastic fluctuations are more relevent with regard to storm potential, but that doesn't negate the value of monthly aggregate calculations ...especially at longer, seasonal lead times. And while volatility of the polar fields is paramount with respect to optimizing winter storm potential, I would rather have a static negative node and positive.

I completely agree with this. And this is a huge challenge b/c we aren't really sure how much of an impact a warming climate is having on global oscillations and ENSO....the research indicates there is impact but what is the outcome of these impacts? 

I also agree...there is tremendous value on the monthly or seasonal calculations and averages and for reasons just like you stated...longer, seasonal lead times. However, I wish there was also more research out there which kinda broke these down to smaller time-scale intervals. I know I've said this numerous times but I wish there were like weekly or bi-weekly calculations for the the oscillations. I would love to do this b/c the data needed to do so is available, however, I have zero clue on how to even do this and my math skills are too weak. I also know that at the end of the day it's the structure/placement of the anomalies which hold more weight than a raw number but that doesn't mean there is not value within a raw number. Using a raw value with a map showing structure/anomaly strengthens any potential knowledge gained. 

I just wonder how much of a signal or how much of a factor ENSO just plays anymore (obviously in a strong or super-strong event it's going to heavily influence the global configuration) but it just seems the correlations with ENSO just aren't that strong anymore. Now perhaps what could be happening is as the data set continues to expand and we're seeing more variations within the same type of signal regime but ENSO events of late don't seem to be behaving like similar ENSO events of the past. 

ENSO gets a significant chunk of attention when it comes to seasonal forecasting (especially for the northern hemisphere winter) but I seriously wonder if the main driver is the stratosphere and the stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Now perhaps we're just in a cycle where the PV and it's evolution (both SPV and TPV) has so much weight on the evolution of the northern hemisphere pattern. 

In terms of the NAO though, I was doing a little bit looking last summer and one thing that intrigued me with a potential indication of how the NAO may evolve or behave moving into the winter was zonal wind anomalies within the Arctic and around Greenland. I don't remember off hand the signal but I want to say easterly (which would make most sense) zonal wind anomalies around the Arctic/Greenland in the fall seemed to correlate to more of a -NAO potential moving into winter. The biggest problem with indices such as the NAO/AO though is there is too much emphasis on the monthly/seasonal value. Perhaps that helps with a long-term pattern configuration, however, it's the variations and transitions on the shorter-term which play a significant role in sensible weather changes...same with the EPO/PNA as well. 

1 minute ago, amarshall said:

I would say southern PYM county is 5.   

Nice touch, Mr. Trump  

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I definitely wouldn't mind a cold front to clean house with some 558 thicknesses and 82/52 stuff. That's been tough to do in recent summers. 

Kinda random but I've been thinking about this lately. There were some articles on this a few months ago but haven't seen anything since but I'm interested in your opinion. Do you think a decrease in flights has had any impact on the performance on forecast models and if so, how significant of an impact is it? 

19 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I thought ME gets the least amount of t-storms of anywhere in the US?

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

I thought ME gets the least amount of t-storms of anywhere in the US?

My guess is some of the west coast states (WA/OR...perhaps CA and ID) average less. (After this post I'll do a quick google check...I'm sure there is a map out there lol). ME does average around 2 tornadoes per year though...my guess is that could be slightly higher but they can get some mean looking supercells in the deep summer months...far enough south to tap into the warmer/humid air and just far enough north to usually get better jet support or steeper lapse rates

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

ME is great. Much better snow climo and retention. Brutal springs though. You need to become a “spring bird” and leave every April and return Memorial Day. Lol

ME is also rather underrated for severe wx...especially northern ME. Unfortunately too many trees and not enough people but they can get some nasty looking supercells. 

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

What’s the highest possible DBZ a thunderstorm could have?

depends on the size of the house being lofted into the air by a tornado 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big hail headed for Springfield shortly 

Hoping that blows through BDL. 

I want to get pounded with hail,...pound me, pound me, pound me

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CT not much except Ginx? 

You might be be in a terrible spot. I would certainly watch closely 

On 7/10/2020 at 4:30 PM, MegaMike said:

Yup! That sounds like you already have it installed. You can install/configure certain libraries and modules using conda (windows terminal) and pip (anaconda terminal) for Jupyter Notebook.

I faced similar issues when I first started scripting. Basemap took a lot of time to install/configure... Overall, it took me ~1 year of constant scripting to understand Python pretty well. I started with MATLAB, but decided to move to Python since the script is compatible w/Linux (plus all of the utilities!).

I'm sure you can find a Python class as it relates to meteorology, however, I learned Python best by writing script that I was interested in. My first script I created was 1) obtain GHCN-D snowfall observations then 2) identifying suspicious observations using a spatial outlier algorithm. The intent was to use it on observations that were provided by members of this forum so I can label weenies w/statistical support 

 

That is a great idea! Hopefully I can get some time put aside soon so I can get back to this. I wish they taught Python at school but it was MATLAB and it wasn't really taught lol. Heck, even the intro programming (or whatever it was called) wasn't really taught. The class was just looking at Powerpoints lol. 

I could see a few large hailers/wet microbursts out in E MA today...even perhaps the Cape.

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Picture just posted on facebook.  Hampton Beach NH Looks like a touchdown to me?  Too bad photographer was not to the right or left

i JUST saw this. I was there last week...****kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk. Really tough to tell though with that water tower of course right in the way. also tough to tell these things with a still shot

that cell blew up in northeast CT

big downpour with a rumble of thunder 

35 knots of bulk shear just northeast of RI with 150 J of 3km CAPE and 1,000 J of MLCAPE. Probably a nice little spot to watch for today

Looks like drier air works in aloft too (outside of eastern sections). With dewpoints generally in the mid 60's and poor lapse rates we can only realize so much instability today. Coastal southeast ME through southern NH, and northeast MA will be the prime spot today. Can't rule out stronger cells getting a decent mid-level meso which could perhaps lead to the risk for small hail 

6 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

I was on board with this until about an hour ago. Current radar and sunny morning make me think central and west could have a decent shot.

Only issue with western areas is shear looks to decrease. Also looks like there could be a decent instability gradient across eastern areas and sometimes those areas can be favorable locations. Looks like the HRRR wants to favor eastern sections with more isolated activity further west. 

This looked a bit better Thursday or Friday. We really just can't buy anything. Today seems to favor eastern areas...southern ME, NH, and eastern MA. Looks like that's where the better overlap of CAPE/shear will exist and perhaps some better convergence. So perhaps some damaging wind gusts out that way. 

This is a great storm. 

It’s coming!!!!! Yes!!!! I’m in a hotel room too...have tripod at window taking time lapse 

Please!!!!!!

1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

I enjoyed tracking it and watching the genesis of it, blows that it was such a lame duck.. oh well.. hopefully we can get some severe before Whiz melts again

I’m probably going to be melting real soon but this summer is fooking ridiculous. This is the biggest load of bullshit I’ve ever seen. This isn’t summer...it’s crap. Big fooking deal it got humid out and we’ve had some 90’s. It was freaking cold through much of June. Even the west had snow in June. Monday doesn’t look good anymore. Screw these freaking models...all over the place. Don’t even run them past 2-3 days anymore...they’re crap. I wonder if perhaps less flights are really impacting data availability? Ehhh who cares...doesn’t change the fact that this summer sucks. If we don’t get anything good this week you can bet a melt is in store.