weatherwiz

Looks like forward speed continues to slowly increase. Heaviest rain here could legit be done by like 7-8 PM (in CT). 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's definitely not totally tropical. May be some separation from the low and mid level centers.  And yeah watch tomorrow aftn. Otherwise, Fay is yawn here.

Not sure if it's model error but there is like a small pocket of pretty steep lapse rates that tries to get overhead. I see at least a few wet microbursts tomorrow along with potential for a tornado or two. 

Tropical Storm Winds extending farther west of the center per latest update

Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
725 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND 
DELAWARE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY...

Surface observations and radar data indicate that tropical-storm- 
force winds now extend farther to the west of the center of Fay. 
This necessitates an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning 
southward from Cape May, New Jersey, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, 
including the southern Delaware Bay. 

A special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 
UTC) intermediate advisory to update the forecast and warnings for 
Fay. 

$$
Forecaster Brennan

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Blue is latest 

Hudson Valley track...a precursor to winter? 

Severe outbreak up north for @OceanStWx Tuesday? 

Could see severe here too Monday!!!

WE'RE GETTING ACTIVE BABY!!!!!

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX met 

 

yup...late overnight and tomorrow could be interesting...guidance not showing much developing, however, should something pop many favorable ingredients. Tomorrow thinks could start popping by 10-11 AM. 

Is there another source to look at Daily Climate Reports? This whole crap with some NWS products not working is beyond ridiculous now...especially SPC outlooks...not populating for like 45 minutes past time

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think you could make the argument that if the max vorticity associated with the trough in the Gulf were instead over the Atlantic, say, just off the FL coast, this would be a much stronger solution. This system had an impressive surface circulation originally, but spent days over land before emerging off the EC. 

This setup also speaks to how difficult it is to get tropical up here. You adjust that trough a bit and this might have been more of a kicker than anything else. These windows for NE tropical impacts are extraordinarily small. Especially this time of year. 

Bingo

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Possibly a low end Cat 1 for sure. Winds are only 40 to 45 right now at sea, any interaction with the land will disrupt the organization.  NJ and SLI probably hit hardest on the wind front then of course you have the Tstorm gusts either gust fronts or microbursts. 

Agreed...strongest winds for sure across NJ and southern Long Island...and even there not a huge deal...maybe gusts 40-50 mph. If there is strong enough convection maybe someone gusts to like 60. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, you never know. If this were able to get its act together over the EC sooner it may have been a bit stronger. As is, this is pretty impressive for our latitude for this time of year. Didn't get the crapping on this system yesterday lol.  

Recon is en route to get a center fix. Will be helpful to see the heading too. Last night recon saw a NNE heading on the center for a bit. 

Yeah there certainly was room for this to be a bit stronger but...actually really wasn't far off from that occurring I don't think. I agree, this is pretty impressive for this time of year. I don't get the crapping on this system either...but if someone isn't seeing crazy weather in their backyard then a system is garbage...I mean which is fine...too each their own but don't go around calling something crappy or garbage just b/c you're not seeing anything. It's like everyone has the mentality of significant damage or nothing.

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

I was thinking about that. If this was late August we might have a very different situation. 

Plus water temperatures up the entire coast would be much warmer...obviously only speculation but if this scenario was another month or two from now we could possibly be looking at a hurricane. 

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

I guess we'll have to see whether we can generate any breaks in the clouds. Really wouldn't take much to boost llvl CAPE given how moist it is. 

If Long island Sound water temperatures were much warmer I would say we probably would see a few brief tornadoes today. If anything though, I think the greatest potential for a brief tornado would actually be across inland CT...away from the shoreline...only b/c the colder waters I think will act to sort of stabilize things around the boundary layer and there will be a bit more llvl instability inland. This typically goes against what you would expect for TOR potential with a TC but the time of year is a little screwy .

Was a bit surprised to see TOR probs increased to 5% later today.  Not seeing much model support for enough 3km CAPE...I'm not totally sure what numbers you would want to look for in this situation but I would wager you would like to see at least 75-100+ J of 3km CAPE. There actually could be potential for a brief tornado late tomorrow morning - late afternoon should we get anything to develop...CAMS though sort of keep convection just west of here. 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/ml-lapserate/20200710-0000z.html

sweet thanks. 

I wonder if it's worth subscribing to weather.us rather than weathermodels

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what they’ve been today 

I've seen like 70-73

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the Euro dumped the BDF next week....but it squashed the heat dome even more...now it just clips SNE with +20ish for a day or so. At least we get much better thunderstorm potential on that look. 

are there any euro products for lapse rates? 

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Has she gone annular yet?

not without lube first 

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's the key, and why I'd watch the coast near NJ if it tucks just inland. Could be enough 0-3 km CAPE to get it done, but timing doesn't look great for New England.

Saturday looks looks rather intriguing to me...in fact, there are some signals we could see some serious dewpoint pooling. Could see dews maybe 75-77. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nah... what's likely to happen is a latent heat conversion, transient beta-synoptic scaled plume of mid level heat gets left behind when the vertical structure wanes and ceases and leaves it behind, and that'll effectively CIN the asshole shut like a bull's ass at fly time... 

77 DP and 5,000 CAPE choked closed for business....   

Save for that one cell over Mt Greylock that rains 5.7" in 2 hours and doesn't move and takes out a campsite of Boy scouts -

I was thinking there could be evening/overnight convection...that's a pretty strong s/w working through PA

Saturday shaping to what could be a big severe day...perhaps several wet microbursts. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hmm when I think “outbreak “ I think multiple F2 and above tornados 

were these jn western areas or Just a bunch of F-0’s in a landfalling tropical system 

Outbreak is certainly a subjective term but IMO, the best way to sort of quantify it is (speaking for tornadoes here)

1. Climatology 

2. Geographic area 

I think...don't quote me on this but I think usually an event which spawns like 3-4+ tornadoes in our region is considered an outbreak (keeping in mind that our climo is very low). Also, let's not forget how small of a geographic area New England represents then the scale which severe weather/tornadoes occur on. I mean we have had 4 F4 tornadoes occur within a relatively small area...Great Barrington, Windsor Locks, CT, Hamden, CT, Worcester, MA. That's actually pretty impressive...when you factor in aerial size. We have also had more than several events produce 4-5+ tornadoes...yes granted most part they're weak ones but compared to our yearly tornado climo that's alot for one event. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm, I'm not sure the type of torsional mechanics that twist columns in land falling/land interacting TCs is the same as that which is supplied by the typical shearing structures that you're using there, though. 

With TCs, what happens is the flow moves from a relative low impeded region, over land where there is an abrupt increase in frictional induced boundary-layer drag; the air must by conservation bend inwards toward lower pressure more so in the 0-3km layer, which instantiates positive shear ... more sub-geostrophic inward, causing a hooked updrafts in the lower 3-km; a different aspect than suspending a parcel through a vertical column where there's potential vorticity due to bulk shear aspects/synoptics.  That's not likely to be modeled well because by convention/state of tech ...models don't resolve that layer very well

I appreciate this information here. I've never fully understood this process with TCs (and can say I've never tried to explore learning...not sure why). My weakest knowledge in this field lies within tropical weather. This though provided a great visual in my head of the physics/processes here and I actually understand much better. Thank you.

37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would “Guess” This would be more than 1-2” where the core of rain passes 

Isn’t iso-tornado about as strong a language as we see in SNE 

No tornado “outbreak “ ? Follows the trend of zero outbreaks in 200 years here

 

1. No not really

2. We've had our share of tornado outbreaks 

The higher helicity I think is more of a product of the stronger llvl flow rather than turning of the winds in the lower levels. However, storm moving may be slightly angled compared to the mean flow so that could certainly enhance rotation potential. Regardless, I don't think instability in the lowest lvls is going to be sufficient enough. 

Kinda looking harder and I'm not so sure there really is a "tornado threat" with this...first off the probability was rather low but I think it's even low enough to where it's not even worth a mention. But I'm not seeing much in the way to support directional wind shear with this...or certainly not enough to cause rotation. I know with tropical systems the land/ocean interaction can aid in this potential but given how cold the SST's are I think we'll see a pretty stable layer develop off-shore. The greatest potential for convection would be pretty far inland but I think in this case any instability is only going to enhance precipitation rates...with such poor lapse rates and deep/moist column it might be tough to generate lightning...not that this is needed for TOR potential as with these setups in about the lowest few km but the lowest few km don't really look impressive.