weatherwiz

I wish I could be tied to a weather balloon and launched into the air so I could experience all this wind shear going on

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s your Tor Wiz

https://twitter.com/weatherjosh/status/1285972789405659136?s=21

hoping not that early. I have a zoom meeting at 4 (but I'll be in Windsor Locks). hope this meeting is short ughhhhhh

Just now, dendrite said:

Is there enough potential horizontal vorticity in the atmosphere after all of the tors from Fay?

considering we never realized it...yes

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

1630 OTLK wasn't favorable for N PA into NY per disco fyi

 

 

N PA into NY isn't CT  

I think things are coming along very well...if not even better for CT. Despite some of the clouds around there is significant clearing/breaks and 70's dews are racing northward. Also looks like shear may end up being a bit stronger than modeled too. Really need to watch between 5-8 for some discrete supercells 

HRRR blowing a supercell through BDL later wooohooooooo

Going to have excellent clearing...already happening!!!! We're going to bake...bake me like a cake!!!!

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Today’s threat is mainly SW of SNE. Maybe a few evening storms but not severe . Tomorrow afternoon looks like best chances are north and east of the Pike 

western CT is certainly at risk...between 5:00 PM and 8:00 PM. Need to watch those storms closely too

can we just bring the thread back with heavy disclaimers   so much great stuff to discuss...especially with clinical trial results and potential for vaccines. 

Holy HRRR for tomorrow. Highly rapidly rising ummm then another r 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ineedsnow ran this GFS run out of his basement.

That is some ridge into the central U.S. H5 temps like -1 to -2C into the north-central Plains 

HRRR, RPM, NAM (all resolutions) are just all over the place.

5 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Hearing boom booms in the bedroom?

lol.

Doesn't seem like much consistency for tomorrow...RPM for example blows a line through afternoon through mid-evening while 3km NAM is much later. I'm wondering if we could see two rounds...mid-to-late aftn with additional scattered development during the evening and overnight. 

Could be a pretty loud night tomorrow for some. 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

One of those come to Jesus moments where you vow never ever to let that happen again as long as you live.

sounds awfully similar to drinking too much

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah ill just be cautious now and check to see any weird spots popping up in the future.

Chris Brown GOAT

Skin cancer potential from sunburn is pretty terrifying. This is something I worry about alot. One of my best friends from high school had his father pass away from skin cancer due to sunburns he would get when he was growing up. 

3 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

93/74 HX 102 North Haven. High of 95.

Thats my boy Ethan.

BTW i made the mistake of not wearing sun screen a little over a week ago. Thursday 7/9/20. It was about 90 that day. And i got the worse sunburn of my life.

Wear sunscreen folks.

Holy shit man...you better like get tested for skin cancer at some point down the road. And legit want to keep up with that. 

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Never heard of a wife beater?

What does Chris Brown have to do with sunburn? 

Over the weekend there were 27,323 tests done in CT and only 162 came back positive (0.59%). We've got to be approaching 3-4 weeks now in CT where the percent rate has been around or below 1%. Hospitalizations down to 54. 

3 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Thanks. More questions, not necessarily only aimed at weatherwiz: In my (limited) understanding,  EML air-masses originate from the SW USA and find their way here along a ridge with westerly winds usually? And they're characterized by dry midlevels and steep midlevel lapse rates? If this is true, and transport is usually due to a midsummer 594-ish mb ridge, I'm wondering why these events aren't that common. It seems like we get ridges like that a couple times every summer, and we see frontal passages maybe every 4 days.

Correct, more often than not if you do a trajectory trace, our EML's derive from the southwestern U.S. I mean you can also get a bit more technical and say more the southern-tier of the Inter-mountain West region.

You are correct, these are characterized by very dry mid-levels with sharp warming usually around 800mb-700mb then a rapid decrease of temperature with height above that (hence the steep lapse rate. And yes, typically they will traverse the crest of strong mid-level ridging with a westerly-to-northwesterly flow in the mid-levels. 

As for why they aren't more common the biggest factors really is the Gulf of Mexico and convective overturning. East of the Mississippi River (perhaps maybe even a bit farther west than this) the Gulf of Mexico is a major contributor to the climate of this region. For example, if you were to look at a national annual rainfall map you would see a significant gradient right around the Mississippi River. Warm/moist air from the Gulf of Mexico transporting northward (especially when you have a deep southerly flow) disrupts the structure of the EML so the capping associated with that warm layer is weakened which promote more mixing. 

In terms of convection, when you have widespread convective events you get outflow boundaries, convective overturning, latent heat release, turbulence, etc...all of these promote mixing which degrades the integrity of the EML. 

Michael Ekster (I also think radarman was an author as well) wrote a paper about 10-years ago regarding EML advection into the Northeast. It seems the best synoptic configuration for an EML to maintain it's integrity into our region was to have a strong 700mb height anomaly in the southeast U.S. (with the strongest anomalies I think in the TN Valley region) with a trough digging into the western U.S. This flow seemed to promote the northward transport of EML air farther north into the northern Plains...even into Canada where it is farther removed from the Gulf of Mexico, thus limiting potential influences from this moisture source. Also, this seemed to be yield the maintaining of the cap associated with the EML preventing mixing. 

There was also something else of interest too...actually will have to go back and refresh my memory on this but there was something weird about the trajectory course of previous EML events studied where the trajectory did a loop...at the time it wasn't sure what this was and why. 

9 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

how rare are EML events here?

fairly rare. It's actually not *as* rare to get EML advection here, however, to time EML advection say with a cold front approaching is what is rare...It's just so difficult to do. Prior to 5/15/18 the last real EML event I think we had was June 1, 2011. I can't think of anything in between those two...perhaps some puesdo-EML events. (My memory with this stuff isn't as good as it used to be  )

5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Hi Wiz I’m here with my standard “will there be an EML present either day?” question

unfortunately not...though there could be some "steeper" lapse rates around Thursday (6-6.5 C/KM) which isn't terrible for around here...also with dews again near mid 70's that would compensate a bit for weaker lapse rates 

1 minute ago, scoob40 said:

DC ok for Cole v Scherzer Thursday night ?

Doesn't look very promising right now

Time to shift focus from heat to severe...the way summer should be 

Can't sleep on Wednesday either...mainly western sections. In fact, there could be potential for a few warm front spinners. 

GFS looks rather solid for Thursday. That's a pretty potent s/w digging in with ample shear and perhaps moderate instability. Might be an early start to the show too.