weatherwiz

This lack of convection is actually starting to piss me off. These 3km CAPE values should be sufficient to at least make for a few interesting cells. Am noting though the wind field isn't rather expansive...greatest helicity values actually confined to a relatively small area and displaced from the CAPE. Figures...POS SNE junk BS

Just now, MegaMike said:

Anything is possible with Python!  

That is what my script does (.csv output), but I only consider liquid water equivalent, snow water equivalent, and snowfall. The good thing about Python is that there are utilities/modules/etc... that already exist that you can install then run pretty easily for specific datasets. For example, for GHCN: https://github.com/aaronpenne/get_noaa_ghcn_data... Avoid any utility or archive that requires you to pay. This data is public.

 

I'd suggest installing Jupyter Notebook. https://jupyter.org/

It's basically a (somewhat) interactive interface that runs Python script. It comes with a lot of pre-compiled modules and libraries too. You can message me if you'd like more details or run into any problems.

 

I was doing pretty well with Python last summer...then the fall came and I got super swamped. I forget what I was using...was either Jupyter or Conda. But I was having fun with all the mapping packages/data packages. mpl_toolkits, cartopy (this was BRUTAL to get to work...absolutely BRUTAL...took me weeks and dozens and dozens of hours), matplotlib, numpy, etc. 

I really need to get back into it...only issue is time to devote. Like I need to devote at least several hours a day to it so I can not only understand it but grasp it. Do you know of any oneline python courses that are strictly designed for meteorology? I would certainly pay for those. 

Driving from Branford to Newtown after. Hopefully I encounter a vortex and it sucks me up and drops me right in Newtown

6 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

If you're looking for max/min's (temperature, wind speed, wind gust, etc...) and or precipitation, GHCN-D is great. I'm not sure if there's an interactive website that hosts this data though... I use Python script to extract daily observations by station and date.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/global-historical-climatology-network-ghcn

Thanks!

I gotta get back into learning python...that would be sick to do. Would it be possible to extract daily observations by station and date into an Excel file?

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think so. Could be nasty ones in western New England tomorrow and into VT.

Should see a Slight risk with the day 2...but at the rate they've been coming out with the outlooks it probably won't be released until after tomorrow. I could see a small area of enhanced too...mainly for wind damage. I want to flatten forests tomorrow. 

Gusts starting to pick up in Branford. 

Pretty chilly breeze. Glad I bought a jacket with me today. Might have to put it back on 

1 minute ago, kbc360 said:

Sun keeps popping out here in NECT, my thermo showing 84, nasty stickiness outside

yeah it's pretty bright here in Branford. 

84 really...wow. 

cool...Anchorage had a t'storm yesterday. I can't even get one  

That dry slot wrapping around the backside seems to really be enhancing convection off the NJ coast

RAP on mesoanalysis yielding 50-75 J of 3km CAPE early afternoon...50 might be a bit low to produce anything but we get towards 75 and higher and that may be enough to make for some interesting cells. 

Just now, correnjim1 said:

where?

Long Island into the southern 4 counties of CT...though I would think Litchfield and Hartford should be included too.

I'm thinking we see an MCD...Tornado Watch Possible to be issued within the next 90-minutes. 

Just now, Modfan2 said:

If anything it will be low topped variety’s as precip comes in from the coast

low topped for sure...hell there may not even be much lightning. It won't take much sun poking through to vastly build 3km CAPE...even if OVC is thin enough...strong sun angle is plenty to boost things. 

Really should watch south of Long Island the next few hours. Some definite thinning/breaks of clouds occurring. Also noting some decent convection to pop up to the south and east of the circulation. I think it's becoming apparent the slug of heaviest rain moves off to the west...however, we may be seeing increasing potential for t'storms/TOR potential

57 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Pattern looks pretty active next week.  Monday and Tuesday definitely have potential. The OP GGEM post hour 120 was MCS/derecho city.

Holding onto hope this look stays. It's been consistent for several days now. I'm torn between Monday and Tuesday though...I think the overall best s/w and upper-level support is Tuesday but Monday's looks is very good...perhaps we're still close enough to the main s/w that we can cash in. 

A bit of an increase in convection northwest of Atlantic City

Looks like forward speed continues to slowly increase. Heaviest rain here could legit be done by like 7-8 PM (in CT). 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's definitely not totally tropical. May be some separation from the low and mid level centers.  And yeah watch tomorrow aftn. Otherwise, Fay is yawn here.

Not sure if it's model error but there is like a small pocket of pretty steep lapse rates that tries to get overhead. I see at least a few wet microbursts tomorrow along with potential for a tornado or two. 

Tropical Storm Winds extending farther west of the center per latest update

Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
725 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND 
DELAWARE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY...

Surface observations and radar data indicate that tropical-storm- 
force winds now extend farther to the west of the center of Fay. 
This necessitates an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning 
southward from Cape May, New Jersey, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, 
including the southern Delaware Bay. 

A special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 
UTC) intermediate advisory to update the forecast and warnings for 
Fay. 

$$
Forecaster Brennan

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Blue is latest 

Hudson Valley track...a precursor to winter? 

Severe outbreak up north for @OceanStWx Tuesday? 

Could see severe here too Monday!!!

WE'RE GETTING ACTIVE BABY!!!!!

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX met 

 

yup...late overnight and tomorrow could be interesting...guidance not showing much developing, however, should something pop many favorable ingredients. Tomorrow thinks could start popping by 10-11 AM. 

Is there another source to look at Daily Climate Reports? This whole crap with some NWS products not working is beyond ridiculous now...especially SPC outlooks...not populating for like 45 minutes past time

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think you could make the argument that if the max vorticity associated with the trough in the Gulf were instead over the Atlantic, say, just off the FL coast, this would be a much stronger solution. This system had an impressive surface circulation originally, but spent days over land before emerging off the EC. 

This setup also speaks to how difficult it is to get tropical up here. You adjust that trough a bit and this might have been more of a kicker than anything else. These windows for NE tropical impacts are extraordinarily small. Especially this time of year. 

Bingo