weatherwiz

Just now, weatherwiz said:

MCD watch possible. 

MCD watch possible. 

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

How about partly sun?

I meant to say that instead of mostly haha

Full sun is certainly good but honestly in a situation where you have poor lapse rates there isn't a whole heck of a lot of difference between full sun and mostly sun...I mean if the difference is like 3-4F in temperature then yeah there is a big difference but when you have poor lapse rates your ceiling about how unstable you can become is very limited. A temp difference of 1-2F can also be a difference maker in CAPE but regardless we're only looking at 1000-1500 J of MLCAPE today...maybe 2000 where any dewpoint pooling occurrs.

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 I do know the marine layer can be more problematic especially up here as SST's are generally colder then in SNE.

I've always found the marine layer/convective connection rather interesting. I do sometimes wonder if too much emphasis gets placed on the marine layer...during the spring/early summer I can certainly see it playing a big role, however, I think it also depends. First off, the marine layers usually aren't relatively thick...but I'm sure they still do slow down the upward acceleration of parcels through this layer, however, when it's hot and humid or when you have steep lapse rates these should be enough to overcome that. 

I wanted to use this for my senior thesis but I did not have enough time but my thinking is that the biggest culprit for us (outside of weaker lapse rates) is lack of stronger dynamical support and large-scale forcing (though these tend to be greater in NNE which is why like northern ME does very well for severe (IMO). But down this way we often see thunderstorms die and it gets blamed on sea-breeze...I don't necessarily agree with that. I think what happens is the storms start to outrun the better forcing/dynamics which gives the aided boost into keeping convection deep. Otherwise, convection is just relaying on large surface CAPE (needed to initiate the convection) and meh mixed-layer CAPE (which helps the storms build in the vertical and when there is enough we get the pockets of severe). But when you're only relying on instability and weak forcing/shear the instability is enough to build it and the lack of the latter prevents it from doing much more.

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0.04" overnight from the leftovers from that batch of cells that passed thru NE MA last evening, I'm expecting a little more today as they look to track further north, Always skeptikal of severe here anyways as they typically get killed by the seabreeze with winds being ESE.

I think that hindered things in CT too yesterday...I noticed there was a bit of MLCIN which seemed to correlate with the SE flow. This is why you really need an EML in place when dealing with a SE flow...or have SST's which are virtually similar to the dewpoints. 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to be a more widespread outbreak today, Lot of debris clouds right now, Would like to see the sun to destabilize more though.

Today is a day where instability may be a bit weaker, but we have better dynamics and forcing. the better dynamics/forcing should result in thunderstorms being more widespread but instability (well lack of stronger and deeper instability) will keep any severe more localized. 

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

A correlation coefficient image from yesterday... The x band view of the cell to the SE was attenuated, especially in the h polarization, but the structure is apparent all the same.   Probably good we were missing some ingredient.

oof that is a pretty classic structure. If you were to show that to someone and ask them what they were to expect from that I bet most would say a TOR

Maybe today will work out. Who knows...all I know is NO MORE convective threads after this...none...zilch. Not happening ever again

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

“NW flow event” ??

haha lol. Is that like 6-8” of hail ending as drizzle

can you tell I'm severe deprived  

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well.. Wiz looks to have a possible spinner on radar heading right for him at BDL. Hopefully still awake 

Might have to get dressed and go to the airport in a few. Hope it at least strengthens more 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I knew this would crap out once I saw your tweet.

brutal...just brutal

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your models show a CT outbreak after 9:00

I'm going to bed. this is stupid 

looks like an inflow notch just west of Northampton 

well congrats MA again 

maybe this was just typical HRRR warm sector supercell fake BS. I thought though there was a nice s/w rotating through today to help with forcing/lift and being timed with late afternoon and early evening. Frustrating and maddening...insanely maddening and frustrating. 

This is fooking bullshit. This summer is the biggest POS you can ever ask for or image. And I don't want to hear anymore BS garbage about this being New England or the Northeast b/c that's exactly what that is...BS. Yes, we aren't the God damn Plains...no fooking shit. Nobody said we were. Just b/c severe gets mentioned in the Northeast DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE SUPPOSED TO OR WILL BE GETTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. THAT'S NOT WHAT THAT MEANS. It also doesn't mean everyone is going to see trees down in their backyards. 

This has nothing to do with being in the Northeast...it has to do with other crap and garbage...LIKE WTF IS GOING ON? ARE YOU SHITTING ME? We can't get shit in this environment...big fooking deal lapse rates suck. Perhaps lack of stronger forcing? We have instability...plenty...more thna sufficient...shear looks solid...SO WTF???? Maybe its just models suck and are garbage...perhaps lack of flights/data for models to ingest?  

Nice line to the southwest though...WTF do they have that we don't? Sure isn't forcing. Like look at the radar...one fooking stupid cell over southwest CT producing lightning...BIG fooking deal. Then some blob of stupid rain "ohhhh yay my garden will get water" screw the gardens...if it needs water piss in it. Screw lawns too. Who cares about lawns

May as well just say fook tomorrow too...we'll have clouds...lots of clouds and the all so common fooking shitty lapse rates. Shear...screw it...we'll just call it garbage. Just let the damn front move through and forward us to winter. Fook the rest of summer, fook fall, just forget it. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re losing the threat it seems

the 20z HRRR went poop lol. Significant change from previous runs 

that's like a radar hole area too so keep that in mind

2 days in a row with no covid-related deaths in CT!

1 minute ago, radarman said:

that 18z Albany sounding wasn't overly exciting

I wish OKX did one

wow...18z HRRR with a few nasty looking cells. 

one thing to keep in mind too is storm motion with respect to flow. generally W to E storm motion and you have like S to SE sfc winds. 

LOL

Slight risk for tomorrow too!!!