weatherwiz

Next Monday and Tuesday look interesting. Tuesday could be more up north but Monday could be big if we can get that plume of steeper lapse rates to stay intact. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Downpour just happened 

Nice batch of stuff headed into SW CT. Hoping it moves through Branford after. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man today turned into good bangers later . Nothing had that south of 90 yesterday. We dew we bang 

Going to be some real nasty storms up north today. Bulk shear even increases a bit down this way a little later on so we may see a few nasty ones too. 

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Strongest UVVs are in summer.

Yes you’re right  

that is some crazy lift for July. 

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Northeast quad is where that risk is typically highest, *if* this maintains significant tropical characteristics into the northern Mid Atlantic. With that, I think Long Island, Eastern CT, RI and SE MA, might be more interesting.  

yeah for sure. If this can certainly develop into something and move northward at a fast enough clip then things would certainly be more interesting. 

9 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Lack of severe is getting to you.

indeed

A/C is STUPID. Unless you have a job working outside it's the most ridiculous and outrageous thing ever. Sitting inside and it's FREEZING. I went outside...it's so warm and humid...it feels great. A/C literally is nothing a summer killer. "awwww I got a little sweat trickling down my backside, excuse me while I run in front of the A/C" 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heaviest rain would like be to the N and NW side of the circulation. Some guidance puts this in western New England and SE NY. To the east probably would be a quick burst of rain followed by some SCT downpours and humid srly breezes.

Speed looks a bit quicker too so that could limit overall flash flooding threat. I'm thinking bet chance for a brief TOR is along the Jersey shore

10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Dare I ask what the "D" is?  

Dry? Dews? Dunkin? Darwin?

derecho  

That's some pretty strong agreement on the evolution of the pattern moving forward. It's going to get pretty damn hot/humid...but that doesn't necessarily mean we can't or won't see a day or two of relief. Regardless, after what's been a brutal summer in the convective department that pattern screams severe wx potential from the Ohio Valley into even our region. If you're going to get a derecho that's the type of pattern that will do it. Depending on how exactly this evolves perhaps we can sneak a few EML shots our way. I do like how that 700 ridge is building though I think I'd like to see a bit more of a trough digging into the west (just to really eject EML air and have it ride along the ridge).

Pinning down the timing of the heaviest rainfall is pretty brutal but looks like we could see multiple bands or waves of heavy rainfall move through. 

Also, want to reiterate that the BEST potential for any severe convection is not necessarily with this system but Saturday/Sunday PM. 

Now that’s a true warning.

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah maybe Sunday?

If we can get enough heating it could sure be intriguing 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’d rule out severe convection as that sounds a little too menacing. More like one cell that may produce a spinner.

Referring more to PM convection Saturday and Sunday...could see a few isolated severe storms both afternoons 

An area of low pressure is set to emerge off the Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours where environmental conditions are favorable for the emerging low pressure to acquire tropical characteristics and perhaps become our next named system in the Atlantic. While the prospects for a [by definition] tropical system to hit our area, the prospects for impact are vastly increasing. This impact will come in the form of torrential downpours and gusty winds (especially along the coast). 

With not much of a kicker to push the impending system out to sea, the most likely course of action is a track close enough to the coast to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Just how close to the coast will determine where the axis of heaviest rain occurs and where the strongest wind gusts occur (which could be in the 30-45 mph range). Despite how dry it's been, flooding will likely become a problem where the heaviest rainfall occurs. 

Forecast models develop a rather anomalous LLJ for the month of July (in excess of 40 knots) with PWAT values exceeding 2.50'' and theta-e ridge just south of southern New England. All these favor the likelihood for some widespread heavy rainfall. While instability won't be overly large (limited by weak lapse rates), there will be enough instability to yield the potential for embedded t'storms which will only locally enhance rainfall rates. 

The fast overall nature of the heaviest rainfall may limit overall flooding extent. The greatest window for heaviest rain looks to be Friday to early Saturday morning. After Saturday AM attention turns to an approaching front. Wind shear isn't overly strong, but combination of very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, and potential for a plume of steeper lapse rates to advect in could set the stage for scattered t'storms both Saturday and Sunday...including the potential for a few severe t'storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Then...moving forward....we dream of the D as we may party like it's 1995.

Bring it back with a large disclaimer in red....if politics are mentioned or if anyone uses political views/differences as a means for whatever they're trying to do or to attack someone...suspend/ban them. 

I'm dreaming of a nice big D

Derecho that is. Tree toppling, forest destroying, roof tossing derecho!!!!!

OH HELLO THERE YOU SEXY HEIGHTS

You have got to be fooking kidding me. I’m not chasing storms on a highway either. This is absolutely fooked. 

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Aren’t you central CT?

depends on the season 

The SPC should just change the issuance time of the day 2 outlook. It's legit never out by 1730z. May as well change it to 1800z. 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean for my tropical weenie self, the best outcome is something similar to the Euro. Get a coherent 98L center off the SC coast to maximize time for organization and then hook that sucker north. GFS really tries to keep things broad and too close to the coast for any meaningful development.

98L looks surprisingly coherent at the lower levels today despite being this far inland. But it has a long way to go. 

 

I could see this becoming tropical very quickly as it emerges off the coast. I doubt it maintains its tropical characteristics though this far north. Waters are just too cool and I think it's going to take it's time moving north. But we would still want to watch for how this evolves off to our south...perhaps we can get a PRE involved.  

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Tides are totally meh

well that's good. 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah originally it looked like there would be a bit of a kicker to push it OTS but the guidance has been hedging toward more of a hugger if not outright inland solution. Not the prettiest low but I agree on the heavy rain potential. Hopefully we can get a little wind too lol. 

pretty decent LLJ...probably decent pressure gradient too so I'm sure it would be pretty gusty. Not sure of tide situation (in terms of times of high/low tide) but I would wager coastal flooding could be a concern.