weatherwiz

Shafted. Off to the East and off to the west. Fooking bullshit. This is beyond outrageous. What the fook? Such bullshit

Hopefully the backside of the complex builds up...much better shot with that

Just now, powderfreak said:

You should get to the Ludlow rest area on the Mass Pike, ha.  Looks right in line to take a hit.  Fly up 91 and bang a right onto the Pike.

I wouldn't make it. I also like to try and get well ahead for any shelf cloud shots. I was looking at Somers but that's a 30-minute drive. 

shit I'll have to go east. Maybe Rockville? Hope I'd make it. 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where do you go for a clear shot of these storms? Severe chasing out here is rough. 

It is tough but there are places you can find which do offer great views. 

I love going to BDL since that offers a great view...especially to the west and north. 

In West Hartford there was this golf course I would go to which offered great views to the west and north as well. 

I usually try to find open fields, parking lots, or like remote farmland areas. 

Done with work at 3:00 then I think I will head to BDL and catch that stuff from the north!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GFS hinting at potential for a NW flow event next Monday. Very warm and humid airmass at the sfc with strong shear aloft and s/w

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

sweet.

I'll edit back

so are we just going to use this thread for this week as well? 

If so, I'll edit title 

I found out there are like 8 hour long videos on YouTube of just lightning and thunder. I'm just going to listen to that when I go to bed tonight. I have forgotten what lightning looks like and what thunder sounds like. 

Instead of melting I made a comforting poem 

No more melting when thunderstorms don't come 

If they aren't coming at you, you gotta get in your car and run 

Spotty and scattered not everyone gets hit 

Enjoy the beauty of the setup and watch the radar get lit 

I can't meltdown over this. Melting down b/c something doesn't happen in your backyard is childish...especially when it comes down to something which is such a smaller-scale type phenomenon. The nature of convection is some towns will get hit and some won't. But the initial thoughts about this weekend were completely off...especially the idea about strong shear today (so either the pre-assessment was incorrect or it just evolved differently. Initial thoughts about yesterday was completely out of whack. But I think I see why 

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Some hail with that storm near Union

looks like Holland is getting nailed. gotta be some big hail there

Watch any embedded areas of rotation for some very large hail (1.75'' - 2'''). Might just have enough shear present to generate enough mlvl rotation for big hailers

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It's really picking up here again. Big boomers 

All the best parameters pretty much right around Boston. I'm sure too some added convergence from a sea-breeze. But 2000 J of MLCAPE with 30 knots of effective shear...that's going to produce something. Looks like we have the same over CT but we're obviously lacking something. Maybe just lacking some type of extra boost...though it looked like there was some sea-breeze action here. Things really picking up too along the MA/CT border. 

EDIT: looks like sea-breeze boundary made it to the border (from LIS)

Just now, powderfreak said:

Looks like a decent storm core along I-84 in CT, probably a little NE of Kev?

hearing thunder from that...assuming it's that anyways. 

Is mesoanalysis even working right now??? Nothing seems to have changed in a few hours. wtf

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Had some hail of unknown size in Denmark, but that's it so far.

I don't see any reason for it to fall apart completely. Better CAPE/shear is east. I think the composite radar look of individual cells is mostly because it's far from all radars and you're just seeing the tallest towers.

I hate that stretch around I-287 (think that's 287) but it's a horrific radar gap. There certainly is some better shear over CT...problem is we're getting anvil crap and losing heating. 

But as mentioned ulvl is increasing in the favorable quadrant of that jet streak so this should help ignite additional development over the next hour

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huh? That line is strengthening and trucking SE. That’s ours this evening 

I'm never really a fan of lines sustaining that far of a distance without having proper upper-level support. For example, if it was associated with an eastward ULJ streak I'd like...or perhaps if there was a s/w moving through the region (we do have this but the feature is very slow moving and a bit far northwest for my liking). Virtually all we have working for us is great CAPE and just enough shear to get storms to organize. Storms can only survive so long without stronger ulvl support. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why? The storm sw of ALB is going to crush BDL area around 6:00

These things aren't moving all that fast. I don't think that would survive the journey. We're just going to have to hope for additional development ahead of it. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Didn’t you have your 28th meltdown the other day over severe...How many can one have in a season?

Those weren't meltdowns just frustration. 

I am issuing a meltdown watch for me b/c I have conflicted feelings. I should have stayed in the Danbury area. Mixed emotions right now which may result in a meltdown. 

I wish this feature was just diving southeast a but more quickly. Had that happened and if had more shear in place this would be a pretty widespread damaging wind day (for our standards) along with numerous hail reports around 1'' and several probably in the 1.5'' - 1.75'' range.  There is a nice little ULJ streak beginning to make the round of the base of the ulvl trough so we should see ulvl divergence slowly increase over the next few hours which should also help things. 

MA and CT probably ground zero today!!! 

700 J of hail CAPE too...if there was a bit more in the way of helicity but some large hail is certainly looking likely with the strongest storms. Should see quite a bit of lightning too

Was going to stay around Danbury but decided to head back to BDL. 

Very nice environment out there with 2000 J.KG of MLCAPE, 25-30 knots effective shear, and 200+ J of 3km CAPE...get some higher sfc vort to overlap and BOOM.