weatherwiz

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why? The storm sw of ALB is going to crush BDL area around 6:00

These things aren't moving all that fast. I don't think that would survive the journey. We're just going to have to hope for additional development ahead of it. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Didn’t you have your 28th meltdown the other day over severe...How many can one have in a season?

Those weren't meltdowns just frustration. 

I am issuing a meltdown watch for me b/c I have conflicted feelings. I should have stayed in the Danbury area. Mixed emotions right now which may result in a meltdown. 

I wish this feature was just diving southeast a but more quickly. Had that happened and if had more shear in place this would be a pretty widespread damaging wind day (for our standards) along with numerous hail reports around 1'' and several probably in the 1.5'' - 1.75'' range.  There is a nice little ULJ streak beginning to make the round of the base of the ulvl trough so we should see ulvl divergence slowly increase over the next few hours which should also help things. 

MA and CT probably ground zero today!!! 

700 J of hail CAPE too...if there was a bit more in the way of helicity but some large hail is certainly looking likely with the strongest storms. Should see quite a bit of lightning too

Was going to stay around Danbury but decided to head back to BDL. 

Very nice environment out there with 2000 J.KG of MLCAPE, 25-30 knots effective shear, and 200+ J of 3km CAPE...get some higher sfc vort to overlap and BOOM. 

Looks like we’ll see numerous showers and t’storms develop later. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 with effective shear 25-30 knots. Enough to yield some wind damage and hail reports today!

We should develop a few severe cells tomorrow...would really watch eastern sections though 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a queen yellowjacket....they often end up inside in spring and early summer as they emerge from winter hibernation looking to build a nest. They usually winter in the attic of homes or other spots that are warmer than outside burrows and when they emerge, they often emerge the "wrong direction" and end up inside rather than outside. They are usually sluggish and don't fly fast and aggressive like the worker wasps so the risk of getting stung is pretty low. Though it's getting a little late in the season for a queen to be emerging....I stopped finding them inside about 3 weeks ago....maybe a straggler.

Just kill it but be careful as it can still sting you even after it is dead. Pick it up with a lot of paper towels or thick gloves.

Holy shit. 

I trapped it under a cup, then slid the cup onto a piece of paper, slid it across the house, and got it outside. I've never been so freaked out. It escaped a couple times too and I ran. I wonder if one of the cats had found it and damaged it b/c it can't fly. Once I saw closer I saw the black and yellow stripes. 

Just trapped it under a cup. That thing is massive. Has huge wings but isn’t flying...just crawling. No clue how that got lnside. Can’t really see the body 

Wtf is this???? Been crawling around my floor

Just now, powderfreak said:

I think if the GFS was right with the ULL there would be some decent rainfall totals in narrow zones.  Is it right?  Probably not, ha.

It's not a winter synoptic widespread precip, it rarely is in the summer, but I bet there'd be some narrow axis of heavy rain next week if this sat and spun for 3 days like it has.  Hell it probably would end up more over NY State or something, but someone would get a nice drink.

Having a deeper cold pool with this would help substantially...perhaps lapse rates will be steeper right in the vicinity of the low but might be a very narrow area. Outside of this they should be rather horrific actually. Even some better dynamics would help alot. 

Just now, dryslot said:

Yes, There is not going to be widespread amounts unless its an organized low pressure system, Yes some may see those totals but who knows where they end up.

Highest totals perhaps in the orographically favored areas though will depend on winds. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken a bit more quickly than guidance shows. Perhaps Tuesday offers the best chance for anything more scattered-to-numerous. 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Oh for sure it's a lot more localized.  But I do think there's more synoptic lift there with the upper level low than your generic convection with really small heavy rain footprints. 

That GFS run was a rainy week.  This is the one time I think I lean with Kev though that you have to nod to drier out-comes until proven otherwise, which is a horrible way to forecast weather but hard to buck the trend.

Even with next week...I'm not so sure there is a tremendous amount of lift with this thing. Not sure how widespread any precipitation will be. Certainly may be scattered enough to where more of an area has a chance for something 

Just now, dryslot said:

Sell that GFS, Hard sell.

Gotta really watch using QPF/total precipitation maps in the summer. They're heavily skewed by convection and obviously since the models (well outside of the CAMS) don't resolve convection well they'll just show what looks like widespread precipitation when that isn't the case. Now...if there happened to be some type of synoptic weather system responsible for producing large-scale precipitation that's different. TBH, those maps are almost kinda useless in the summer. 

32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It's sort of like when JBJ goes into a slump..the type of slump  where a  girl from concession is able to strike him out on 3 pitches 

No more severe threads...this is damn ridiculous. Screw tomorrow, screw Sunday, screw the rest of fooking summer. Nobody even mention summer anymore. It's not summer it's garbage 

This is becoming rather complicated. That initial morning action may be more aligned for late morning/early afternoon and could really be the "main show". This would almost put a complete end to the severe wx threat. This is some straight up B.S. What a stupid fooking summer. Pathetic, ridiculous, and just a flat out freaking waste. At this juncture I hope the damn thing this becomes a blob of nothing and everyone's lawns just torch and wilt away. fooking summer. No more stupid threads...that's it. Fook it. Fook this

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Both NAMs keeping the faith for tomorrow. Hopefully the 12z globals bump northward. 

The timing of this seems to really be slowing down. In fact, looks like that "first wave" could really be the "main show". 

I know very little on this topic and trying to find some reputable places to become more educated on it but is the Saharan Dust into the U.S. just more media hype (not hype about the dust itself but impacts). I understand it can make for poor air quality, dim sunlight leading to less sfc heating, but what other impacts result from it. Does it impact aviation at all? 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Head SW young man. NYC south 

I do see two (or multiple lines with this). One down in that area but we should see another track through southern CT...biggest question is how much instability we have to work with.

52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It does look like there could be a little bit of s/w subsidence behind the morning crap. Could be both good and bad...good in a sense it could help clear things out but if its too strong it would be an inhibitor for later development. 

This is incorrect...disregard. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could also miss CT entirely

 

We want no part of the morning stuff...that's if you want PM stuff. 

It does look like there could be a little bit of s/w subsidence behind the morning crap. Could be both good and bad...good in a sense it could help clear things out but if its too strong it would be an inhibitor for later development. 

I'm  sick and tired of COC. I mean a good COC is fine once in a while but too much COC is just boring. Need more excitement...this has been boring. Luckily this changes...tomorrow!!!

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

For sure. I'd lean towards south of the Pike, specifically Western CT to RI, on Saturday for best severe potential.

agreed