weatherwiz

The TDS's going on were pretty wild...probably even helped some by the degree of leaves still on the trees getting sucked up. As always, Ryan did a phenomenal job providing heads up and warning viewers and using dual-pol to illustrate.

Up to 11-tornadoes add EF-0 North Bellport, NY EF-0 from Hampton Bays, NY to North Sea, NY

Looks like we can add a 9th EF-0 from Remsenburg, NY to Westhampton, NY

I am coming

8-confirmed tornadoes thus far. EF-0 Branford, CT EF-1 Stonington, CT to Westerly, RI EF-0 in Cheshire, CT EF-0 Sterling/Plainfield, CT EF-0 East Islip, NY EF-0 Nassau County, NY (skipping) EF-1 Shirley, NY to Manorville, NY EF-0 North Kingston, RI

That blows ughhh

I am shocked there weren’t more in the way of widespread damaging winds. Maybe llvl winds were just a bit too weak?

I’m at BDL. Went there for the storms from Springfield.

Guess we can confirm a tornado in Branford. Great stuff from Ryan on Twitter

Also estimated gusts 50-55 mph

Pea hail!!!!!!!

TDS western LI

Rather surprised no damaging wind reports…all hail

Much sooner…probably more like 3:00-3:15 Just got to BDL from Springfield!

Crap RadarScope keeps crashing

This is going to be some serious stuff. Probably see lots of power outages too. Maybe winds in the lower-levels are just a tad bit weak for crazy widespread but those lapse rates are very steep plus the updrafts are looking robust. This is also crossing CT at prime heating

This could rival a serial derecho but may end up falling short of official criteria. We are primed for widespread damaging winds with this

Looks like we’ll see 100-125+ 3km CAPE with 3km lapse rates 7-8 C/KM. Strong signal for widespread damaging winds

Shaping up to be a big afternoon. Steep mlvl lapse rates and llvl lapse rates, strong shear, just enough moisture. Going to see lots of wind damage

Let’s see if we can muster up something today

Gotta watch that convective cell south of Long Island...that may head towards New Haven/Branford/Clinton areas over the next 30-45 min. Then need to watch the low-topped line as it works through central/eastern CT. It will encounter higher dewpoint/theta-e air and greater instability.

Dewpoints now into the lower 60's across southern CT. Strong convection south of Long Island. Radar sampling 70-80+ mph winds only a few thousand feet above the ground. Won't take much to mix into that given these dewpoints/llvl CAPE.

Should see lower 60's dews get into at least parts of CT, RI, SE MA over the next few hours. HRRR (per mesoanalysis) suggesting >175-200 J of 3km CAPE as well. 0-1km shear is pretty high. If any updrafts can tap into these we may see a few brief spinners today

Yet another late-season severe setup which has become a bit more of a common occurrence the past several years. Strong southerly flow will transport unseasonably moist air into the region with dewpoints potentially climbing into the lower 60's ahead of the cold front. This should contribute to 150-200 J/KG of 3km CAPE...more than sufficient for the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorms given the degree of wind shear aloft. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible from late morning through late afternoon across the region.