weatherwiz

I wonder if there is some TOR potential with any cell that develops and becomes mature enough. This is 17z HRRR for CEF

HRRR continues to be very consistent with blowing up a cell right around Springfield near 6 PM!!!

Anyone live in the Springfield vicinity free right now to help with an AC installation (paid obviously)

wake me up when the TCU's start forming

western/central MA down into CT stands the best bet...basically right along where the back door sets up. The biggest challenge is breaking the cap which is in place thanks to the elevated mixed-layer overhead. Typically the lift associated with back door cold fronts isn't generally strong enough to produce deep convection, however, there is some pretty impressive shear associated with the front so there stands a chance we can pop a few cells. Any storms which do develop and can become deep will likely become severe.

Hoping to pop some storms later today. CAMs starting to get a bit more aggressive with this idea

Going to be a really interesting day Wednesday west of here...really trying to figure out where to set up to chase. Really leaning on going where the backdoor may set up around the HV. The shear Wednesday will be pretty crazy...instability should be decent and llvl lapse rates looks solid...which is huge for wind potential

Could see stuff form along the backdoor Tuesday night. Could be some decent lightning given ample MUCAPE. The backdoor though really mucks things up for Wednesday and how far west to go for chasing ughhhh. Right along that boundary may not be a bad spot but the question is...where the hell will it set up?

The back door does the chasing

Probably NY or PA.

Cant wait to chase Wednesday!!!!!!!!!!

On vacation and nothing else to do. So it was a nice little ride down to Danbury

Getting closer!! Can’t wait to get some CG’s

Just gotta turn the car around b/c we facing wrong direction

Yeah parked at the mall! Nice view

Decided to stop and stay in Danbury. Brewster May be a bit far west

Off to Brewster!!!!!!!

Looks like some decent heating going on in SE NY. I wonder if HRRR is a bit too aggressive with weakening the activity there.

This is obviously not an ideal setup but it's something. Was thinking maybe Brewster. Tomorrow could be fun in central New England too!

storms. on vacation so time for some action

Trying to figure out where to go today. Maybe SE NY

Perhaps going to SE or NE PA tomorrow to storm chase!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ahhh think I found it. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=76

Does anyone know the specific link on Iowa St you can search a ton of different data? I know @dendrite has posted graphics here many times. I swore I think a few had posted graphs a month ago when there was discussion about windiest months and such.

The pattern configuration across the country; particularly the western and central U.S. would certainly favor the advection of "heat" (however you want to define that) into our region. Obviously there are some factors to consider such as any resistance to our northeast but it won't take much for us to get some big heat/humidity days. Will it be long-sustaining? Probably not because the pattern looks to remain active with perturbations, however, big heat/humidity isn't really meant to be sustained around these parts until we really get into July. Anytime you crank 90's and dews >65-70 in here before mid-to-late June...it's on the impressive side of the scale. There seemed to be a time where it was tough to get dews much higher than 60-65 until like...August.