weatherwiz

sweet. I'll edit back

so are we just going to use this thread for this week as well? If so, I'll edit title

I found out there are like 8 hour long videos on YouTube of just lightning and thunder. I'm just going to listen to that when I go to bed tonight. I have forgotten what lightning looks like and what thunder sounds like.

Instead of melting I made a comforting poem No more melting when thunderstorms don't come If they aren't coming at you, you gotta get in your car and run Spotty and scattered not everyone gets hit Enjoy the beauty of the setup and watch the radar get lit

I can't meltdown over this. Melting down b/c something doesn't happen in your backyard is childish...especially when it comes down to something which is such a smaller-scale type phenomenon. The nature of convection is some towns will get hit and some won't. But the initial thoughts about this weekend were completely off...especially the idea about strong shear today (so either the pre-assessment was incorrect or it just evolved differently. Initial thoughts about yesterday was completely out of whack. But I think I see why

looks like Holland is getting nailed. gotta be some big hail there

Watch any embedded areas of rotation for some very large hail (1.75'' - 2'''). Might just have enough shear present to generate enough mlvl rotation for big hailers

All the best parameters pretty much right around Boston. I'm sure too some added convergence from a sea-breeze. But 2000 J of MLCAPE with 30 knots of effective shear...that's going to produce something. Looks like we have the same over CT but we're obviously lacking something. Maybe just lacking some type of extra boost...though it looked like there was some sea-breeze action here. Things really picking up too along the MA/CT border. EDIT: looks like sea-breeze boundary made it to the border (from LIS)

hearing thunder from that...assuming it's that anyways.

Is mesoanalysis even working right now??? Nothing seems to have changed in a few hours. wtf

I hate that stretch around I-287 (think that's 287) but it's a horrific radar gap. There certainly is some better shear over CT...problem is we're getting anvil crap and losing heating.

But as mentioned ulvl is increasing in the favorable quadrant of that jet streak so this should help ignite additional development over the next hour

I'm never really a fan of lines sustaining that far of a distance without having proper upper-level support. For example, if it was associated with an eastward ULJ streak I'd like...or perhaps if there was a s/w moving through the region (we do have this but the feature is very slow moving and a bit far northwest for my liking). Virtually all we have working for us is great CAPE and just enough shear to get storms to organize. Storms can only survive so long without stronger ulvl support.

These things aren't moving all that fast. I don't think that would survive the journey. We're just going to have to hope for additional development ahead of it. Those weren't meltdowns just frustration.

I am issuing a meltdown watch for me b/c I have conflicted feelings. I should have stayed in the Danbury area. Mixed emotions right now which may result in a meltdown.

I wish this feature was just diving southeast a but more quickly. Had that happened and if had more shear in place this would be a pretty widespread damaging wind day (for our standards) along with numerous hail reports around 1'' and several probably in the 1.5'' - 1.75'' range. There is a nice little ULJ streak beginning to make the round of the base of the ulvl trough so we should see ulvl divergence slowly increase over the next few hours which should also help things.

MA and CT probably ground zero today!!! 700 J of hail CAPE too...if there was a bit more in the way of helicity but some large hail is certainly looking likely with the strongest storms. Should see quite a bit of lightning too

Was going to stay around Danbury but decided to head back to BDL. Very nice environment out there with 2000 J.KG of MLCAPE, 25-30 knots effective shear, and 200+ J of 3km CAPE...get some higher sfc vort to overlap and BOOM.

Looks like we’ll see numerous showers and t’storms develop later. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 with effective shear 25-30 knots. Enough to yield some wind damage and hail reports today!

We should develop a few severe cells tomorrow...would really watch eastern sections though

Holy shit. I trapped it under a cup, then slid the cup onto a piece of paper, slid it across the house, and got it outside. I've never been so freaked out. It escaped a couple times too and I ran. I wonder if one of the cats had found it and damaged it b/c it can't fly. Once I saw closer I saw the black and yellow stripes.

Just trapped it under a cup. That thing is massive. Has huge wings but isn’t flying...just crawling. No clue how that got lnside. Can’t really see the body

Wtf is this???? Been crawling around my floor

Having a deeper cold pool with this would help substantially...perhaps lapse rates will be steeper right in the vicinity of the low but might be a very narrow area. Outside of this they should be rather horrific actually. Even some better dynamics would help alot.

Highest totals perhaps in the orographically favored areas though will depend on winds. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken a bit more quickly than guidance shows. Perhaps Tuesday offers the best chance for anything more scattered-to-numerous.