weatherwiz

I should have clarified but by strong I was getting at EF2 type stuff possible. But yeah, I agree...I also think perhaps that stuff may arrive a bit too early but looks like dews in southern CT are a bit higher and 3km CAPE is the same or slightly greater. Guess it's just a matter of does shear increase further before they arrive

Yeah my main concern is the amount of CAPE within the lowest 3km which is also where shear is maximized. Plus you're talking about LCL's ~500m which strong tornadoes become much more of a possibility when LCL's are below 750m. Violent tornado parameter is also at a 2 in CT

Yeah I would say perhaps a 3-4 hour window of the strongest winds...but I wouldn't let that fool you. That's still a relatively large period when you factor in the trees are fully leaved. My concern is we see what 50-60 mph gusts do during t'storms when those winds are rather brief. What would an extended period do?

What do you think the prospects are for the potential of a strong tornado? I know they're exceedingly rare with tropical cyclones...and we know how rare strong tornadoes are in New England, but with the LLJ ramping up like that and about to overlap where 3km CAPE values are approaching 200 J/KG and given the size of the hodographs...I have to think it's a possibility. Perhaps the limiting factor is we aren't using a larger portion of the troposphere...would probably need some really deep convection but you get a discrete cell ahead of this stuff...there's an awful lot to utilize.

pretty nice couplet just north of Dublin, PA

the threat decreases in northern New England...moisture pinches off in southern New england which means we will have a rather robust theta-e gradient. Also we'll see a CAPE axis traverse the region. NJ into southern CT prime spot for tornadoes today...even farther inland

I don't think we will see an enhanced go much farther north really...maybe moreso of southern CT but the next update is 12:30...that may be kinda late but I suppose it's posible. Well I can't really travel since I'm working but it's impossible to chase tornadoes in tropical systems...and extremely dangerous. Not sure I'd do it

THOUGHT WE WOULD SEE ENHANCED!!!!!!

I would watch this pocket extremely closely. It's just ahead of the line with TOR warnings in DE. You get 2-6km lapse rates around 8 to overlap when that LLJ cranks and we're getting 50-70 mph gusts

Bufkit is legit the best...I don't see how anyone can really forecast without it. It's great too b/c you can manipulate mixing depth. For the most part I find bufkit extremely accurate with winds...though sometimes I think the GFS can tend to be a bit overdone b/c it always seems to go mix happy but OTOH, the NAM I think tends to under-do mixing lol.

Wow...don't think I've ever seen "high" for a tornado watch here...although maybe 5/15/18 had it

And there's the tornado watch

certainly some weak mesos. We probably have another couple hours I'd say before things get really interesting with them.

The HRRR continues to advertise widespread 50-60 knots of wind traversing the state (CT) later today. There seems to be quite a bit of other model support as well. Not only is there model support but soundings and the environment seem to support this as well. I would expect there is going to be widespread tree damage/power outages across the state later. Some will be without power for several days

Tornado Watch coming

looking pretty impressive with nearly 200 J of 3km CAPE being modeled for later

Thankfully it's getting closer to landfall so not sure how much room there is for strengthening, however, I guess you couldn't rule out some additional strengthening as it interacts with that ULJ.

NHC did a special advisory. Up to 85 mph

If that is legit we are in for some big trouble

ummm hello

Should this verify there is going to be some widespread damage with a few embedded tornadoes

extrapolated SLP of 985mb found

First two of 2020 for CT! Let's add several more tomorrow

There goes our jet streak. Should continue to strengthen