weatherwiz

I wonder if we can muster up some supercells tomorrow. The lack of stronger forcing will work to limit storm coverage (which would increase potential for supercells) but on the other hand, the very weak forcing will make it difficult for supercell structures to probably become mature and sustaining. With this I think we'll see a few very nasty cells tomorrow afternoon. I may take back my prediction of an enhanced risk...not sure the potential is widespread enough (wind damage) to warrant it (except in Maine).

NBM picked up on this yesterday...although I don't think it was as extreme with a 110-130 direction but I do recall the NBM going in the 170-180 direction.

I would throw money into that bet as well.

Sunday could be a decent severe potential

Might be a shot in the dark but I wonder if the Gulf of Mexico has influenced this as well. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been above-average and also warming even earlier. This could explain why we've seen some stretches the past decade where we're getting some relatively high dews earlier on in the season. It might not be that far-fetched of a thought...the Gulf of Mexico has a significant influence east of the Mississippi.

This While I agree that our warming is contributed to warmer overnight lows there is actually strong influence by a warming ocean on this. If you think about it, a warmer ocean yields greater low-level moisture. This is one reason why I think we've seen an increase in cool season severe events (especially closer to the coast) the past several years. The warmer waters are yielding greater low-level moisture which in turn is yielding greater low-level instability. And with the warmer oceans and higher concentration of low-level moisture you're decreasing the efficiency of radiation. H20 is a stronger heat trapping gas than CO2. But yeah...this process will have a much stronger influence on nighttime as opposed to daytime. This is because H20/CO2 does not absorb shortwave radiation emitted by the Sun that well, but they do absorb longwave radiation emitted by the Earth very well. (Note: I know CO2 does...not sure if this is true for H20 as well. Don't remember).

Agreed...seems like N of the Pike event. Moreso like New Hampshire into Maine.

This is probably more of a NNE event. This actually kind of sucks because there looks to be a remnant EML or plume of steeper lapse rates which moves overhead tomorrow. But bulk shear looks to weaken with the main shortwave well into southeast Canada so heights rise. This could be a pretty decent wind event though for NNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see an enhanced risk at some point.

If I moved everything would just shift east.

Why is it so fooking hard to get an EML in here. This is crab grass damn ridiculous. Just watching them fizzle out like the Maple Leafs in May. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Probably be a NNE ordeal

I think those are quite high. Maybe by like 30%

Those are the ones you want to watch out for.

How does heat like that happen there?

Starting to look at it in a bit more detail but yeah shear isn't anything crazy...it's adequate (and heck...sometimes that is better than overwhelming shear lol). But one thing that sort of sticks out to me is heights look to remain neutral or rise slightly through the day? The main shortwave lifts ENE and is pretty far into Canada. Never good for us

ehhh I think there needs to be expectations with these type of setups and just convection in general. Due to the nature of convection and processes involved I don't think you can ever classify severe events as a bust if they don't pan out (perhaps with exception of what the SPC designates as a high risk setup). In this setup (and similar set ups) the risk for severe weather is low. The risk for a widespread severe weather event is as close to zero as you can get without saying zero. You're really only tracking and looking for the potential of one or two cells which are going to become mature enough to utilize all the ingredients.

Today is why “drought” talk in SNE is LOL.

I actually think I can smell the Sun

Mesoscale Discussion 1511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...eastern PA...NJ...southern NY into western MA/CT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473... Valid 182032Z - 182200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts will remain the main hazard across severe thunderstorm watch 473. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms continue along the I-95 corridor this afternoon from near Washington D.C. to the NYC vicinity. Some of these storms have produced near-severe measured wind gusts as well as sporadic wind damage. This activity will continue to pose a threat for damaging gusts the next few hours. Occasional weak rotation has been noted at times as well, especially with storms further north across NJ/NY where low-level shear remains stronger compared to further south. Some modest airmass recovery has been noted to the north of WW 473 toward Albany, NY. Cloud breaks have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE values around 500-750 J/kg are noted. Visible satellite imagery indicates some agitated CU beneath broken upper level clouds. As large-scale ascent continues to increase and a prefrontal trough shifts eastward through late afternoon/early evening, additional strong to severe convection may develop from eastern PA into NJ and southern NY. If additional convection develops and becomes organized further north, a watch expansion may be needed across parts of the Albany CWA. ..Leitman.. 07/18/2022

It's the brightest it's been all day. Maybe some late PM sun to give a boost. It's like David Ortiz coming to bat in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded, down 3

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

This thing is screwing everything up

Actually some of these signatures appear more divergent rather than rotation

Flooding may be the biggest risk in southeast NY into Fairfield County...

Yeah I don't think it's really possible to get sufficient clearing in these type of setups. The only way really is when there is an advecting EML offering a stout cap and sufficient drying aloft. Agreed...conditions are still favorable for severe. This isn't going to be a widespread severe event and is a setup that typically produces widespread severe. It's all usually about whether one or two cells can maximize everything that atmosphere has to offer.