weatherwiz

should add that of course along the coast will have dews into the 70's

yup should see some flash flooders

But what I don't see is when we get those dewpoints working in. I totally get that if we keep higher dews it will knock off a few degrees in temps and if we don't get those dews we'll see temps a few degrees higher, but at most even the NAM only tickles with with 70-71 dews. But given the strong SW flow tomorrow I would think deep mixing wins out. but I do see what you mean about hot spots getting to 100-102...would probably be within northeast MA or southeast NH where that pocket of higher 850's are.

I'm not sold on dewpoints into the 70's tomorrow (and if it happens probably not until the evening and overnight) or Friday. I don't think it's necessary a mixing product but I'm not so sure we get the (if you want to call it this) secondary warm front to ever push through. The higher theta-e air seems to stay off to our south. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if many sites struggle even to reach heat advisory criteria (perhaps low-end). Thinking hottest temperatures tomorrow are only in the 95-98 range which would bring HI maybe just to 100 or 101.

Saw a thunderstorm had popped up near me so drove down the street to the parking lot but lightning gone. I haven’t seen lightning fade that fast since the Stanley Cup

Doesn't make much sense to me. Is it an upgrade now, sure. IDK how much the Padres are paying...he's 32-years old and continuing to decline. What may be an upgrade now is going to be a downgrade the next 3-seasons. I'm still thinking there is another deal in the works but quiet so far

Wow...kind of shocked to see temperatures so high. Friday has potential to have a ton of cloud debris from previous day's convection to our West (hell, we may even see some convection sneak into western areas during the evening and overnight). Once ConvT is reached too we should fire things off pretty rapidly.

Continuing the theme of some earlier posts the past few days Friday should see some flash flooders

it is now a downpour and quite the heavy one.

Nice little shower occurring

Mario II was really hard. I don't think I beat that one many times either. I was sick at Mario I...I could beat that over and over. I used to have so many good times with Mario Kart. I think that is one game that never gets old and is also good on just about every system there is. It's equally as fun on SNES as it is say Switch.

Same I agree it was the best. It was just crazy hard. I kind of hated that when you gamed over that you lost all progress on maps beat within a level...even if you saved the game. But those final sets of levels...brutal. I think I may have only ever beaten that game twice. I actually bought one of the SNES mini's back in the winter. Got this 136-1 cart for like $40 which has Super Mario All Stars and a ton of other games. Although then bought Tecmo Super Bowl and Sporting News Baseball (which may be one of my favorite all time games).

That game still gives me nightmares

Wouldn't dewpoint be a more appropriate metric vs. RH during the summer?

This really hits the nail on the head. This is very important, not just with tropical meteorology, but can be applied to long-range forecasting as well. The structure and evolution of features is way more important than phase (and even at times, strength) but getting to that understanding can be quite difficult just because of how complex the atmosphere is. Wave breaking is rather fascinating. It's really cool to look at a world map during the fall/winter months and see wave breaking in action and how it helps to shape the downstream pattern. The MJO is also highly intriguing. While it gets used heavily in medium-to-early long range forecasting and especially with tropical I think sometimes it gets too much weight put on it...and I say this because it is not an easy feature to forecast. Since it is pretty much tied into convection it makes it very vulnerable. We've seen plenty of times before where even if models are in strong agreement with its evolution the verification still ends up way off.

Certainly possible, the MJO can certainly be a precursor at times but we're going to need to see some big changes across the Atlantic Basin as well though. Not saying this season is a bust, we're still about 5-6 weeks away from peak climo anyways and things can always get active in a hurry. The MJO is also a horrific pain to really forecast lol.

I don't like window fans. One time several years ago the window fans sucked in all the pollen and my bedroom looked like someone emptied 1,000 green pixie sticks all over

I think Vegas has had more rain in the past week than most of us have had in the past few months

Well-stated. Wish so many more had this thought process/understanding. Big reason why I'm a huge fan of your outlooks/discussions. You get very deep and thorough and don't loosen the jeans b/c one parameter is of liking.

I'm actually very happy for this for the sole reason there were so many hype forecasts about how crazy active it was going to be and blah blah blah b/c of the persisting Nina conditions and solely using ENSO as an indicator. At some point there will be a realization that ENSO (unless in a strong state) does not hold the weight we all once thought it did.

Watch out for cirrus Thursday...although that may be more of an issue for northern New England but it's something to watch. We've had plenty of higher end of the spectrum heat days held back b/c of high clouds.

It was also in a really tough radar spot. we need radar back at BDL!!!!!!

Ocean may evaporate is that verifies

Obviously I think we know the extent of the heat is way overdone, but if not, it's very hard to see that verifying. First off, there is likely to be some sort of at least weakly diffused [cold front] boundary somewhere within the region. Based on the flow aloft and how it looks to potentially be convectively active across the northern Plains (closer and just north of the international border) we are going to have potential to deal with lots of high cloud debris...heck, maybe even chances for convection. If we were seeing 850's of like +24C to +26C or whatever being modeled...might be a bit more optimistic because we all know models tends to back off on those as we get closer. Anyways...one of these days we will see an outcome like this verify.

59-mph gusts at the airport with flooding...wild. I think they got over 2'' of rain last night lol. They average just above 4'' per year I think.