weatherwiz

Where's @OceanStWx What does the black contoured MCD mean (obviously has something to do with TOR watch b/c it says) Mesoscale Discussion 1176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Areas affected...northeast IA...extreme southeast MN...portions of southern/central WI and extreme northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151822Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to develop across northeast IA and spread northeast in the next couple of hours. Tornadoes, damaging gusts and hail will all be possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 20z. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar data from KDMX indicate deepening cumulus across northeast IA to the northeast of a surface low and in the vicinity of a surface warm front. More isolated cumulus has also started to develop across southern WI. Latest water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave impulse now ejecting across eastern NE/southeast SD will lift east/northeast, providing increasing ascent across the region within the next couple of hours. Some weak inhibition likely remains in the vicinity of the surface boundary, though continued heating and increasing ascent should rapidly erode any remaining inhibition over the next hour. Strong heating south of the surface boundary across IA into central WI has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s amid upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. Relatively warm temperatures between 850-700 mb will maintain modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, but the very moist boundary layer is still supporting moderate instability across the region. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will further support robust, well-organized convection. Some uncertainty remains with regards to convective mode, but semi-discrete supercells appear possible at least initially in convective evolution. VWP data from KARX already shows enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs supporting rotation. Additionally, strong low-level instability with enhance vorticity in the vicinity of the surface front suggests increased tornado potential will accompany any semi-discrete convection. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale as a 35+ kt south/southwesterly low-level jet increases by late afternoon/early evening. This will result in an increasing risk for more widespread damaging gusts, though mesovortex tornadoes also will continue to be possible given favorable low-level shear.

I'm not so sure we see widespread 70's...even down here. That's a pretty chilly airmass and looking at soundings, even with the mixing being advertised we may struggle to get into the 70's. NNE could be really screwed b/c mixing will be very poor up there. The wildcard may be cloud cover and how quickly skies clear out Friday evening/overnight before more clouds roll in Saturday. If there is widespread clearing Friday night and temperatures drop...it's going to be tough to get them to skyrocket Saturday. Obviously the strong sun angle is going to do it's work and we'll probably see that have the best influence farther south.

At least models slowed down front enough to make Friday look a bit interesting!!!! Probably just teasing though

I strongly agree with this. I think the NAO is overrated too and there is way too much emphasis on it. I think this idea came about from early-on research but ideas have not changed as research has progressed. Very similar to back in the day when many thought that a weak La Nina meant massive winters b/c of 95-96. But with these teleconnection patterns and indices it is way more complicated than "positive vs. negative". The structure of the anomalies, where the anomalies are located, how the structure is evolving all matters so much. I also don't think drawing a correlation to just one index alone provides much overall value with the exception being whether that index is in a very strong phase and is clearly dominating the pattern.

Looking at the height anomalies since Mar 1 (top image) and since first of June (bottom image) I think sheds a bit more light into the influences the NAO has had on the pattern. Now...I think to fully quantify this a much more in-depth and thorough analysis would have to be conducted. Anyways, this is why sometimes those charts alone are misleading as they don't give insight into structure and placement of the anomalies. Since March and June 1 you can see why the charts are yielding a more +NAO look as opposed to negative as the majority of the anomalies which lead to a +NAO are smack dab in the middle of the NAO domain (this is especially true since June 1. But looking closer, we can see a tripole of [positive] anomalies present. Once just south of Greenland which would indicate a more southward displaced NAO and one just east of Greenland...and in between we've seen that pesky vortex northeast of Maine which has put a block on persistent higher heat/humidity from moving into our region. We've also seen a persistent troughing signal from the northern Plains poking into the Northeast. Great point too about the PNA. If you look at the structure of the PNA and then combined that with the southward-displaced block of the Arctic...that's pretty classic to get more of a trough signal here. If/when these features subside we are going to roast.

It incorporates a bunch of different parameters and correlates to severe and significant severe potential. I think it was a widely used index back in the day but there have been so much advances in severe weather study that I don't think it's really as widely used anymore. I used to go crazy with that index in the late 2000's

Sun won’t do much at night

Yup...timing blows for everyone else. Could be some decent damaging wind potential. Quite a bit of shear and pretty steep llvl lapse rates being advertised.

If we get severe Friday I'll be fine with 35-40 Saturday with cold, drizzle, and cat paws

Tampa I think has a decent fan base...you may be thinking of the Florida Panthers

It's like watching the Tampa Bay Lightning win cups year after year

At least it has a severe threat Friday!!!

I think you accidentally plotted heights as opposed to temperature anomalies. I would have thought though it would still show positive departures in the 100mb height anomaly, but that could be a result of the auto-generated legend.

That is quite an unseasonably cool airmass still being projected on the models. Not taking any airmass modification into account, I think there is great validity for such potential. But before getting into that, when you look at the source region for that airmass there might not be much room for modification. While this airmass would certainly result in very comfortable daytime temperatures, should we achieve strong mixing (which would be likely with a steep lapse rate), we'll get to at least climo with maybe some areas a tick or two below. But like you said...it's the overnight period which could be of greatest interest. Given the presence of very dry air and rather low (for time of year) theta-e values, combined with some potential for strong radiative cooling....the favored cold spots could certainly plunge down into the mid-30's and even some of the major climo stations could get into the 40's. Should any full de-coupling occur profiles are favorable for a downward spiral from daytime high's.

Don't be sorry. I thought it was good discussion. For one, it's interesting to see how we perceive something to be but then you look at data and the data doesn't reflect what was perceived.

I think the fact that we've been above-average with low/comfortable levels of humidity certainly plays a factor too.

The best way to really put it is we haven't seen anything totally out of the ordinary or anything anomalous. We've had some hot days and we've had some cool days. But we have not entered a constant or consistent pattern which we really shouldn't be anyways given we're in the mid-latitudes. The pattern should really only be more consistent during the dead of summer (July/August) and dead of winter (January/February). Sometimes I think it would be better to view anomalies in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just an "average".

We've been above-average since mid-May...obviously driven moreso by warm mins, but even high's have been above-average. While we certainly have had some cool days this just goes to show that when we've had these cool days they really aren't far off from climo, but when we have the warmer days we're a good several-degrees or so above climo.

Historically, most of our HHH periods come closer to mid-July. Like dendrite said, we've had some hot days...and of those few they were quite hot. It's still relatively early for such prolonged periods. Even what's happening across the Missouri Valley east to the mid-Atlantic coast is a bit early...not totally uncommon but it's quite the prolonged stretch

The 8th TriState Weather Conference hosted by Western Connecticut State University will be held Saturday, October 15, 2022 at Western Connecticut's Midtown Campus in Danbury, CT from 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM! Registration is $35. For those who has never been it's a very fun time. There have been some great presentations in the past. It was also an honor to be involved in the preparation process one time as a student. Additional information can be found on the link below: https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

In all seriousness...it's only mid-June lol. Probably up until recently (as in the past decade) have we ever really entered more consistent stretches of heat and humidity...and I'll define that as temperatures ~85 or greater with dewpoints > 65. Obviously these thresholds need to be adjusted for location (proximity to water, elevation, latitude). It really used to be like first few weeks of July for the big heat and then we would really crank dewpoints (>70) more like later part of July and August.

84-mph at ORD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Did the observer at ORD take cover????? Waiting for a METAR update

Maybe we can get some solid elevated convection Thursday night.

I was getting all tingly looking at mesoanalysis in the OV but now I'm depressed