weatherwiz

Getting a cute little snow flurry right now

edited

Well 2.5” from the other day, I didn’t get a chance to measure today but eyeballed probably about an inch (maybe 1.5”)…but I’ll call it an inch. so that’s 3.5” since Sunday. If I can pull off the 7” in my 4-7” forecast that brings me to 10.5”. would only need 49.5” to hit my goal of 60” for this stretch by mid March

Well got the opportunity to dig deep into the details for Saturday into Sunday. Ultimately, one concern I have for higher totals is just the forward speed and the duration the best lift/maximized snow growth is. I could end up seeing some 7-10" amounts possible though but not widespread enough to map and that will be tied into very localized areas of enhanced lift. https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2025/02/february-8-9-2025-southern-new-england.html

Think we're getting freezing rain now.

well technically you're right, it is rain. It doesn't fall as freezing rain, the freezing occurs when it comes into contact with a sfc.

I wonder if that convection down in Kentucky had a negative impact for us. Convection down that way ended up being a bit more pronounced and stronger than anticipated.

Basically pixie dust out there right now....yuck. It's the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 season outside

I remember being burned way too many times not buying the warm tongue haha. One big case was the PDII in 2007 (or was that PDI?)

I've always thought that way too, however, I've changed my stance on that thinking. Obviously everyone has their own preference, but I actually like to start looking at finer details even 3-4-5 days out....not necessarily for creating a forecast, but to just have an understanding or an idea of what would happen if this was unfolding in real time. I think there is great benefit in the forecasting process to look at finer details that far out because you can assess those trends with the trends of the entire storm evolution as its modeled and versus real time.

The NAM gets tossed way too easily. When it comes to the finer details and mesoscale influences the NAM can do a pretty damn good job. I've come to really like taking the major global models for the synoptics and larger-scale features/evolutions and then applying how the NAM is handling the mesoscale to better define/fine tune expectations.

Coming down nicely now...some better snow growth over the last half hour or so.

With where we are now and the ability for people to work from home and even with remote learning, if there is snow, sleet, or freezing rain in the forecast, why make people have to go out and drive. I know not everyone has the luxury to do that (such as essential workers) but if you have people who can work from home or offer remote learning...whatever makes people not need to travel, do it. I know with the remote learning this brings a whole new issue of child care but it's frustrating when you hear about accidents/deaths because of icy roads or weather conditions.

Growing up in West Hartford, the town was phenomenal with roads...probably was a huge reason why we didn't have a ton of cancellations growing up. It didn't matter the size of the storm, it seemed West Hartford got the roads clear down to bare cement...meanwhile, you went to Hartford...DISASTER. I always got a kick out of right along the town line...West Hartford side, spotless, Hartford side...disaster.

Yeah good point. It's actually probably moreso the way people drive now that make these situations seem worse.

ehhh IDK...it seems like local municipalities have really started "slacking off" over the years. And I put slacking off in quotes because I just wonder if its budget related reasons...almost like many towns are preferring for a good chunk of the storms to be over before going heavy with road crews and reducing OT pay.

It was not a pleasant ride up 91 with some big gusts of wind…had to clutch the steering wheel tightly

This wind is nuts. This may be the windiest evening this winter

That would royally suck

This is essentially a 2-3 hour (3 hours probably even stretching for some) humpity, thumpity of snow followed by some light-to-moderate IP (and some ZR in spots) which will make road conditions even worse and clean-up not so fun.

Agreed

It's pretty impressive seeing how cold MOS/NBM is for tomorrow night...even down in place like EWR/JFK.

Thursday morning and afternoon commute will be brutal...roads are going to become a disaster quickly.

I would probably even go a couple hours prior to Sunrise for start. Maybe even as much as 3 hours.

This is some impressive WAA...there is certainly going to help with a big thump of snow on the front end.