weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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I'd rather trust Chad Ryland to kick a game winning 66 yard FG (while blind folded) to win the Super Bowl than the NAM to sniff out this system. -
I think the one thing that will hold accumulation potential back a bit is the speed. This should be fairly progressive. Even if snow is lingering if we get a boost from the trailing shortwave, it's most likely going to be light snow which probably doesn't amount to much in terms of accumulation (maybe an inch or two). Overall though, the window for the heaviest snowfall rates is relatively short...maybe 2-3 hours (4 at most). Something to keep in mind when looking for the higher ceiling of totals.
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It would be kind of cool if you could see this product for something like 850 or 700 lows. Just based off the track of many of those SLP though I would think 850 would be very favorable for a hefty band to traverse almost everyone.
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I wouldn't call that a blip. That's been hinted at and something to absolutely watch for. This is exactly why as you get closer you analyze and assess forecast soundings instead of just rip and reading QPF/snow maps. This is exactly why I start looking at soundings 3-4 days out. They can provide hints and clues missed by just looking at maps.
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Wow hello
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I would expect the NAM to trend towards other guidance. I would be pretty shocked if it doesn't. I'm not sure if the NAM is really meant to sniff out and lead the pack in changes at H5 but maybe it happens. What I do like on the NAM though is it does have a hefty looking band of frontogenesis materializing. It might not where we want it to be verbatim, but it shows it.
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yeah Berkshire and Litchfield are ALY and Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, and New London are OKX
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Will they be launching more balloons in that area? That is sparse.
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Probably going to come down to rates and wet bulb. While temperatures don't look to climb crazy high Saturday (mid 30's...maybe 37 or 38) with the thickening cloud cover, temperatures aren't going to drop much after sunset. But yeah...certainly a situation where a few miles makes a huge difference. You see that often times along the CT shoreline as well.
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Friend of mine pointed out...alot of the spread now doesn't necessarily seem to be north/south it's more west/east so speed may be the bigger spread now.
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definitely still some spread, but wow. Can't hate this at all. some of those (more than some) would be a crushing
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I like to start looking at soundings even 3-4 days out because sometimes they can help verify the validity of the model output.
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I was thinking this myself. I was surfing around trough various locations on bufkit and I noticed what seemed to be a very uniform and large area of crosshair or near crosshair signatures. I think this idea also makes sense when you look at the temperature gradients in the horizontal and vertical...there would be a fairly wide frontogenesis band most likely oriented W-E so many would cash in.
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With all this talk of sampling I feel like I'm at Costco's.
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One thing to keep in mind too is any increase in QPF farther north does not necessarily reflect a north bump. Tip mentioned this yesterday, but jet dynamics/structure could result in getting precipitation (even if light) farther northwest. Obviously the overall track is going to be noteworthy when focusing on banding and where the strip of max totals may occur.
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ehhh stupid Ptype algorithms. Rates depending, it's probably even mostly snow towards the coast...maybe the immediate shoreline is mixing but its pretty damn cold aloft
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That is a nice hit for the interior on the euro...we take! some mixing concerns along the coast though. Very excited right now, but holding off on any kind of snowfall total forecast until Friday 12z runs.
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I can't wait to start geeking out over Bufkit. 12z GFS usually out around noon...sometimes as early as 11:56 AM EST. It might be early but it's never early.
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I can picture a freakout Sunday because the radar is looking bleak then all of a sudden we see a re-blossom of the precip as the trailing s/w makes its way in the picture.
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I mentioned something similar I think yesterday, but I could see two jackpot areas in this. I was thinking something like just north of the sfc/850 low and then maybe something else with the 700 warm front.
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I like the GFS thus far. What could really help this storm overachieve somewhere is the tight baroclinic zone with this. That's a pretty strong temperature gradient in the latitude. I also like how the sfc low is more tightly wrapped up and the 850 low track looks good. You can argue 850 may get going too late but the scale of lift is pretty strong over a large area.
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That's what I'm kind of leaning towards as well. I think this will be a decent first event for everyone and at least something that ends the shutout. My initial expectations are for something in the 3-6'' range. If we get closer and things start falling in place and there is room for something higher...awesome. But I'm not going to be disappointed if I got 3''
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How many times does this type of solution actually pan out though? I feel like it's not very common.
