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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    I'm also hoping we can pull out something in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. This is going to require getting everything timed perfectly which is not the case right now but still a few days to watch. Problem though is best dynamics are just behind the front and that's not something that usually changes over time.
  2. weatherwiz
    That's where the CAMs seem to hit at strongest theta-e advection and moisture pooling. You'll also probably have some sort of sea-breeze boundary to aid in forcing
  3. weatherwiz
    That's probably the only hope. I guess the NAM is out to lunch with those dewpoints but if we can pool the dewpoints it may be a little more interesting. I still wouldn't be shocked if we were to see a line organize across southern CT into RI but yeah shear is weaker farther south...maybe just enough to help updrafts organize. Looks like convergence along the front is a big issue
  4. weatherwiz
    GWWBT
  5. weatherwiz
    it never left
  6. weatherwiz
    probably be well west of here unfortunately.
  7. weatherwiz
    Still need to watch for an EML event Tuesday
  8. weatherwiz
    I would think we see at slight at 1730z. If these trends hold I could eventually see an enhanced with 30% wind but not sure that would be rolled out given how poor the lapse rates are
  9. weatherwiz
    Tomorrow will be a fun test too. NBM is a few to several ticks warmer than MOS at several sites tomorrow.
  10. weatherwiz
    No but I feel like I've been seeing more lately.
  11. weatherwiz
    I am really torn on tomorrow...CT could be ground zero for greatest risk of damaging winds but I think this is highly dependent on the dewpoints. The HRRR really mixes dewpoints out and then increases them ahead of the front across southern CT and I guess its no surprise this is where the HRRR intensifies the line. Heck even the GFS mixes them out. But looking at the llvls...I don't see dews really mixing out. I'm inclined to side with the NAM here which would argue for a big day across CT.
  12. weatherwiz
    I'm calling a Hamden microburst tomorrow.
  13. weatherwiz
    He looks like Borat
  14. weatherwiz
    I wonder if we may actually see a splitting supercell or even a left moving supercell tomorrow
  15. weatherwiz
    Looking at BDL quickly looks like between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, the greatest increase is the minimum temperature in December, nearly a +3 increase. (Just did a quick eyeball so maybe another month is greater)
  16. weatherwiz
    That is pretty mind blowing.
  17. weatherwiz
    The NAM argues for a an organized swath of wind damage from central/southern CT across RI and SE Mass. NAM has some major dewpoint pooling through the afternoon with dewpoints into the mid 70's. Despite the weak lapse rates 2000+ MLCAPE and 35-40+ knots of bulk shear is pretty hefty for these parts.
  18. weatherwiz
    Is there an easy way to compare across different climate periods? that would be sick if on the Daily Climate Reports it gave the anomaly compared to different climatological periods.
  19. weatherwiz
    Looks like that pre-frontal trough may slide through early in the day. This could mess up quite a bit with the forecast, however, I think we would have to watch for some enhanced supercell potential from Mass Pike (maybe just south) into central Connecticut early PM.
  20. weatherwiz
    Maybe another microburst in the same area that got smoked Sunday
  21. weatherwiz
    I wonder if we get screwed by that feature which moves through in the morning and it results in just isolated activity later in the afternoon. A pretty pronounced wind shift occurs in the morning and we turn sfc winds more westerly (probably why this dropped the TOR area). But yeah I was just looking at some bufkit soundings and there is enough hail CAPE for the strongest of cores to have a shot.
  22. weatherwiz
    So sorry for your loss. I thoroughly enjoyed reading his posts and interactions over the years. My thoughts and condolences to you and your family.
  23. weatherwiz
    Boooo 12z took away the tornado area and also added a small corridor for hail...not sure we have any hail potential given how crazy warm it is aloft. Maybe far NNE with early developing cells
  24. weatherwiz
    GFS trying to get an EML in here next week and we'll have to watch for some days into the 90's with 70 dews
  25. weatherwiz
    I don't disagree with that. When you have these mornings after a super hot/humid day and you bring in this airmass overnight it feels great in the morning. It's hard to explain but because it got cool quickly last evening, I hated it more this morning lol. Like say it was really humid during the evening and then cooled overnight...I would have enjoyed better.
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