weatherwiz

unless convection occurs again they should

Excellent post!

Dry air aloft is definitely a concern...or moreso a lack of a deeper moisture rich llvl column. K-index only around 30 and 850 dews barely above +10C. Not sure if north is the place to be today...better chance probably closer to the coast where there may be some enhanced moisture convergence

BDL record check: 10:00 AM obs: 77 (+2 since last hour) 13°F to go. Would love to be about 85 next hour

It's very isolated so most will miss out but whoever gets hit should get whacked pretty good

BDL 75°F!!!!! 15°F more to go!!!! LEt'S DO ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

with Bruins playing...nope

Just noticed NWS has sunny skies tomorrow for BDL...looks like we could get mucked up with MCS cloud debris

Coverage today will be isolated but what does develop...should be some good wind producers too...along with some hail with strongest cores.

Finally...we've been waiting all summer for this but the potential exists on Thursday for a widespread...perhaps severe weather outbreak with widespread damaging winds and perhaps some tornadoes all possible. This is a rather delicate setup, however, all the ingredients are there. as always with this type of potential there are numerous caveats and the extent of the potential probably won't be known until early Thursday morning. 1) Morning MCS - there likely will be an ongoing MCS to begin the day (riding along an instability gradient). This will certainly be one feature which complicates the forecast as we would ave to deal with cloud debris and likely subsidence behind the departing MCS. Subsidence can be good as it can help clear junk out faster, however, if it is too strong it can inhibit development later on. 2) Lack of EML/steep lapse rates. lapse rates aren't horrific, but these setups tend to have their severe weather potential (magnitude) vastly increased when there is an EML involved. With that said, combination of temperatures well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 in spots and dewpoints perhaps into the 70's with high mixing ratios should contribute to near moderate instability (again...cloud debris will be a player here too). 3) Rather strong shortwave approaching will be accompanied by anomalously strong mid-level flow with a west-to-northwest MLJ exceeding 50-60 knots with a low-level jet exceeding 30-35 knots. One caveat here is the BEST dynamics may push off the coast before we can crank again in the afternoon. This should be extremely fun to track the next few days with plenty to work out. It is extremely important to keep expectations in check b/c this is by far a lock and lots have to come together...but all the ingredients are there. Saturday has potential to be quite active as well.

Depending on the season south winds can be a killer b/c of marine taint but IMO I think this is more of a factor during the spring through late June. Once the waters warm I don't think it becomes as big of a factor. I've always wanted to do research on this but my thinking is that storms just tend to out run the better dynamics/upper-level support. The better dynamics/upper-level support seem to be up around the NYS/Canadian border or traverse NNE...so taking into account the curvature of the Earth, when storms just get past a certain point they just lose that assistance and fizzle...partly too b/c our instability here tends to be on the weaker side and predominately sfc parcel driven (days where we may have 2500 SBCAPE but barely 750 MLCAPE). the good SBCAPE helps get things to develop but for them to really mature the updrafts need additional assistance (good MLCAPE, dynamics, upper-level support)...and with that lacking convection struggle to get very deep.

yeah some of our biggest events come from; 1) NW flot aloft (mid-levels)...which also tend to match well with EML advection but not all NW flow events are associated with EML's 2) EML's 3) cold pools aloft but our severe wx events can be maximized with the combo of a NW flow/EML

good news is we have the chances!

I should actually clarify...west winds alone doesn't mean less convergence...it's more of the winds with respect to the front. Typically with cold FROPAS they do so in a more northwest to southeast fashion...so if you have like S, SW, SE winds...they're going into the front ...air is converging which means upward motion. If sfc winds are more W its kind more parallel to the front so there isn't much convergence. At least that's how I've always understood it

looks like 18z is slowing down a tad more. still have a more W sfc wind though which will limit convergence but boy...what does develop is going to produce some good wind

nasty storm just north of Danbury

I would be working from home today too

My concern would be subsidence behind morning MCs

There’s afternoon potential too

I’m smelling the D!!!! It’s a D setup!! I want the D!!!!!

Karma is a *itch hahaha

unidirectional flow and subsequent storm mode, inverted-V soundings, high LCL's, southern New England

Looks like some pseudo-EML air that might move overhead? I bet we see one or two microbusts with winds 65-75 mph.

Should see some pretty nasty t'storms today across eastern CT through southeastern MA. Big lightning producers too

probably happens a couple times each summer. I spend weekends with my girlfriend so I try not to be buried into my phone too much. Anyways...did get one started this morning but as usual everyone is going to think tomorrow is massive widespread potential and then cry bust b/c they didn't get anything...even though this setup is not widespread convection and most probably see nothing. BUT...for those that do...the storms will pack a punch