weatherwiz

For EL Nino I did not do breakdown of west, basin-wide, and east (or at least I didn't categorize it that way). I did the following: All EL Nino Weak EL Nino Moderate EL Nino Strong EL Nino Super-strong EL Nino All Modoki EL Nino Weak Modoki EL Nino Moderate Modoki EL Nino Strong Modoki EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing Weak EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing Moderate EL Nino Neutral ENSO Forcing Strong EL Nino EL Nino Forcing EL Nino EL Nino Forcing Weak EL Nino EL Nino Forcing Moderate EL Nino EL Nino Forcing Strong EL Nino I have to take the gf car into the shop, but I'll explain this breakdown more when I get back and post some charts of the events broken down and categorized.

Maybe we can spin next Tuesday

Good stuff Ray! I have to incorporate more of the SOI and MEI into the strength assessment as well. This is something I will do over time. I am almost done making all my composites for my breakdowns. As a refresher I did composites for Temperature Anomalies (Global) 500mb Height Anomalies (Global) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (Pacific Basin) Sea-Level Pressure Anomalies (Global) Precipitation Anomalies (United States).

HRRR looks like it develops some stuff along sea breeze in southern CT. But may have to target around Albany tomorrow maybe

Thunder too...still have the cold pool. In fact, core of the cold pool will be overhead along with core shortwave. Next Sunday - Tuesday is a tad interesting, but signal continues to be super mixed. Hoping for something later in the week but these signals are too mixed.

Well next potential we look too is Thursday and Friday.

Each way...wasn't bad. Drive was easy and got some lightning and thunder.

Eastern CT was a target, but road system is not the greatest

Some nice flashes and loud thunder at least.

Ehh not a huge fan of doing that, especially driving through heavy rain where it’s tough to see. But I think we’re in a fine spot. Just saw lightning!!

I hope the core doesn’t go just west

Hoping this will come up

Made it to lee!

Going to Lee SCREW IT. Only a 48-minute drive.

hmmm Lee may not be bad per the HRRR.

We were going to do that, but its over 1h30m drive and we didn't think we would have enough time to really get there, but I know exactly what you're talking about!

Cancelling Lee. Have a boundary already about to go through there. Hoping that boundary will spark up stuff as it moves southeast. That cluster west of VT going to peter out

Gotta remember...setups which contain steep mid-level lapse rates need to be treated differently. If we didn't have steep lapse rates, the smoke negating any convection would certainly become a larger factor as we would need to be much more reliant of strong sfc heating to help boost CAPE.

Lee is about a 50-minute drive from here so going to head there in a few and just see what happens.

I don't think the smoke is a huge hinder. At least per mesoanalysis, there doesn't appear to be any CIN and our instability is the result of the steep lapse rates. Surface temperatures are into the 70's which is enough to have MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/KG. If anything, the lower dewpoints are the bigger hinder, at least for more scattered-to-numerous development.

Maybe Lee is a good spot

this isolated crap makes it difficult to figure out where to go. That SVR looks decent, but is likely to fizzle once it becomes outflow dominant.

Yeah it's been back and forth for several days on this. I am really hoping we can get some decent convective threats my last week of vacation.

Pretty textbook inverted-v tectbook profiles. Even crazier off to our Southwest. Pretty crazy to see a critical fire risk in the Northeast/mid-Atlantic due to dry thunderstorms and concerns for lightning strikes outside of convection to potentially spark fires.