Floydbuster

Wow 120 mph Category 3 hurricane is quite the impressive storm. We'll see if Franklin can make a go at it.

Ugh. Should've never named Gert LOL

Please name the low pressure in the Atlantic so we don't have another stupid "I" name storm for the U.S. landfall!

That was a bad one. Trees and powerlines down all over Northeast Ohio. I was without power for 12 hours. 

After all the flooding and nasty rain in Northeast Ohio last night, I hope this one is weak and fast.

A friends basement is totally flooded near Richfield, OH. I-90 is submerged. This is bad!

3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I stepped outside for a minute. I can see a lot of distant lightning flashes that are in a hazy mass of cloud. I can also see a couple of stars.

observations show a severe wind gust from the -east- at Port Clinton Ohio. There is a storm developing rotation near there.

Why such a strange track and slow motion of these storms? Usually it's west to east at 60 mph. This is a strange night.

13 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Multiple flash flood warnings around Cleveland metro. 2-3 inches has fallen so far 

Very weird radar. What's this south-southwest movement crap? I can't remember seeing something like this, not even lake effect snow. When is it gonna push out? 

I was envisioning 91L becoming a Category 1 Hurricane "Gert" into South Texas/Northern Mexico. I guess now it'd be Harold.

I swear, the wave off Africa better be a fish because I do not want another infamous "I" storm, and the long-range models show another wave leaving Africa after the current one and being more a potential threat to landmasses west.

If TD-6 hadn't become Gert, then the Gulf would have likely been Gert, the wave off Africa currently could have become Harold, setting up the next wave with more of a threat potential to be "Idalia". With TD-6 becoming Gert, this now wouldn't happen. It would likely be "Jose".

My gut tells me this could be a hurricane. I had a similar vibe from both Erika 2003 and Hanna 2020, and both became Category 1 hurricanes.

Here's a video update on Franklin...and Hilary...and 91L....and TD-6...and Emily....and the wave off Africa...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4WHe9sAbR8

The 00Z GFS is terrifying, with what would appear to be:

Hurricane "Emily" moving out to sea in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm "Franklin" spinning in the far eastern Atlantic

Hurricane "Gert" making landfall in South Texas similar to Hanna 2020

Hurricane "Harold" making a devastating 939 mb landfall in the Mississippi Delta 

Thank goodness it's just a long-range run, but still. Geez...

I'm a little surprised at the lemons from the NHC. Seems a little bullish to me. The models aren't THAT consistent yet with Gulf development, and this is a huge surge of dry SAL. 

The GEFS has continued to show a powerful South Texas landfall in some runs. Other runs show the SE U.S.

The GEFS ensembles continue to show a Florida/Gulf hurricane mid-late August.

Nothing will ever beat the slightly long-range GFS showing a green smudge over the Abaco Islands for what turned out to be a 185 mph Category 5 historic Hurricane Dorian.

I'd watch the lemon in the East Atlantic closely as it progresses. It's been a while since a Bonnie 1998-type track occurred in August.

I remember many systems like this 20 years ago that would wait until the Western Caribbean and Gulf before developing. Barry 2001, Claudette 2003, Grace 2003, ect. Now they all seem to move straight into Central America. The only system that really did something similar to those was Hurricane Hanna in 2020.

23 hours ago, Windspeed said:

What will be the state of those vortices though? Will they have upper level support to become hurricanes, or will they be sheared weak systems? It's quite possible we get a number of TCs form in the MDR due to the OHC thermal support, but the WATL and Caribbean may still have unfavorable mid-to-upper level Westerlies. Of course, it only takes one to get into the right synoptic setup that just happens to be favorable for an intense landfall somewhere. Can the record +AMO overcome a strong +ENSO? This is going to be what everyone is focused on for meat of ASO. Big uncertainties on how this plays out with little to no analogs to compare.

Agree, but with CSU going with 9 hurricanes and 4 majors, I'm venturing to guess that they think the +AMO will win out and enough storms will find good environments. Otherwise I assume they wouldn't have gone with such high numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes.  

I assume nobody has any idea. We just have to wait and see.

Verbiage from many of the pros on Twitter is that we're in for another busy hurricane season just around the corner. Interesting contrast from the El Nino slow-season predictions from others. I guess we'll know in the next 8-10 weeks!

CSU really thinks we're gonna have a burst of August/September activity that drives the numbers up high. It's amazing how fast some indicators have changed showing that we might actually have an active season.

Gust to 69 mph in St. Lucia. Pretty impressive for a quickly weakening sheared storm.

Here's this evening's video update: 

It's funny that Bret looks great and is over-performing, and yet the long term prospects seem to have dwindled tonight. I've seen it happen before. In 2015, Hurricane Danny went from a Cat 3 east of the Lesser Antilles to a dissolved wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Even still, I'm surprised how bullish everyone seems about Bret's demise.

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I really am starting to think the MDR being open like this may be an early signal of a more active season. It’s not just that much of the basin is historically warm…the TUTT is displaced northward and with this early wave train we are seeing no issues with stability and SAL like past years. 

To get one TC is historic for this time of year, the guidance is trending toward multiple TC genesis opportunities in the next 10-14 days. 

Unless it's a weird El Nino plus major positive AMO type thing to where it's gonna turn off suddenly in September. 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think it’ll get that far west, but I was saying in the Mid-Atlantic thread that I like Elsa as an early analog. I think there will be shear, but the euro is too aggressive tearing it apart and driving it due west into the Caribbean. IMO.

I'm actually quite surprised at how favorable things look ahead compared to other early systems. It's not ideal but far from complete obliteration like Danny 2015.