Floydbuster

11:30pm Video Update on Idalia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McX8BTvxbn4
 

Chasers in Florida tonight be like:

Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day.

New Video Update for those interested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXfNa-LHOt4

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Isn't it more like 32 hours from now til landfall rather than 48 hours?

Probably a little less. I'm thinking 8-10am Wednesday. 

Visually it reminds me so much of Irene in October 1999. 

I remember the original forecasts and the models kept showing west and eventually, Irene just dragged more and more east.

I think that's why my visual take on Idalia is giving me a memory back to tracks similar to Irene 1999, where the storm sort of drags eastward.

4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 

Agree. This time it might really go west, but looking on satellite it is difficult to envision. But of course, I can read the model agreement, and it's there.

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The "I curse" is real, folks.

Retirements since 2002:

Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid, Irma, Ida, Ian

Now likely Idalia.

Kind of ironic that 2005 didn't manage to retire an "I" name, but the infamous 2013 did.

 

 

 

I usually start it with Iris in 2001. 

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. 

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

Watch how fast the media loses interest if Idalia only strikes rural Florida and destroys a Doug's Dinner Bucket and Bait.

6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Still a TS on latest advisory. 7pm CDT.

As mentioned yesterday, like Isidore 2002, Idalia is likely to have lower-than-normal pressure. Even if Idalia peaks at 120 mph, I'd expect a pressure in the 930s-940mb range.

14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Ol' Phil busted out the historical perspective. At 29°N, this is the lowest central pressure measured in a TC since records have been kept consistently (1979).
 

There's the end result of the high-latitude SST anomalies we've been talking about all year coming to fruition. 

My guess is 150 mph-155 mph based on the data. What a gorgeous hurricane!!

In yesterday's video, I noted how it looked similar to Hurricane Andrew as Andrew neared the Bahamas. It exploded in a very similar fashion, but thankfully, this one has a completely different setup and future track.

990 mb on the new advisory. This thing will definitely trend towards a lower than normal pressure. Reminds me a bit of Hurricane Isidore in 2002 (which also did a loop near the Yucatan Peninsula). Isidore started as a tropical storm with a lower pressure similar to Idalia, and ended up being down to 934 mb despite only having winds of 125 mph.

I still think this is going much further east in the end. Maybe I'm wrong but it is unusual to have many go between Apalachicola and Tampa Bay. 

Evening video on Idalia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adUFWl88kyM

For those of us old enough to remember Isidore 2002, I don't say anything until the southern drift near the Yucatan Peninsula stops.

Evening video update on TD-10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9xzL_UNJHQ

Wow 120 mph Category 3 hurricane is quite the impressive storm. We'll see if Franklin can make a go at it.

Ugh. Should've never named Gert LOL

Please name the low pressure in the Atlantic so we don't have another stupid "I" name storm for the U.S. landfall!

That was a bad one. Trees and powerlines down all over Northeast Ohio. I was without power for 12 hours.